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Natgaslong

NatGas - I know what you bought this summerA few important happenings in NatGas today, so I decided to update. First of all the first daily cycle is right translating: From this point we can be sure : ICL was on the 5th of August. The probability is high we printed a multi year low ( probably a 3 year cycle low) I've mentioned this in a previous idea: The first daily cycle low occured on the 11th August: The first daily cycle run for 49 days with a peak on day 31. We are day 17 today. We are still early in this daily cycle and already broke above the 200 SMA. The second daily cycle usually run for 60 days and the peak usually comes on day 40-45. So we have minimum 2 maybe 4 more weeks before this daily cycle tops. After the 2nd daily cycle i can predict how far this whole intermediate cycle can rally. This might be the best 3 weeks in NatGas this year . Noone can predict how far this cycle going to run: Maybe only breaks 3$ and tops there .. But we might tag the 2019. January high at 3.735$. The 2nd daily cycle could look like this: ANd after this 2nd daily cycle there will be one more daily cycle ... The RSI just got overbought and it's starting to print the 2nd daily cycle 's overbought zigzag.
OANDA:NATGASUSDLong
by chartwatchers
6
NatGas - 28 days laterOn the 5th of August NatGas printed a multi year low. 28 +1 day later we tagged the 200 SMA Before I start the update , I suggest you to read this idea from April: I was a bit early there, but actually nothing has changed: we started a new 3 year cycle. And in this 3 year cycle I think NatGas is going to break above 5$ and probably will break the resistance at 5,5$... In this first daily cycle price tagged the 200 SMA and turned down. I'M not sure this is the daily cycle high as Natty usually has 60-70 days long daily cycles so this top probably just a smaller peak in this daily cycle and the cycle top is still far away . ( Not talking about the intermediate top which is probably coming only in December or January. So we have a long long way to go from here.) The reason I'm posting this new idea because I think at this point one can add to the existing position or those who are sitting on the sidelines this is the possibility to enter with a long trade. I see many traders anticipating a H&S formation where Natty is breaking down and heading to 2$. But cycles are not supporting this pattern so most probably we are just printing a trend strengthening cup and handle pattern which is a rare pattern. In this scenario instead of printing a right shoulder price will just rally to new highs leaving behind all those who are trying to short the rally out of a multi year low. The rally out of the last 3 YCL was weaker. At that time we almost tagged the 200 SMA at the daily cycle top and started to drop into the HCL. The decline stopped at the 100 SMA and the BB medium line . Then one more attack and one more drop came before we broke through the 200 SMA. This year we might zig-zag between the 200 SMA and 100 SMA before price breaks above the 200 SMA.... ...or we just slice through it on the first try as I signed on this idea's opening picture above. The Stoch RSI just tagged the oversold territory and we are almost at the BB's medium line. We might be ready to break higher next week... I think this is one of the greatest opportunities this year after gold broke out of the 3 year consolidation.
OANDA:NATGASUSDLong
by chartwatchers
8
UGAZ - Sleeping with the enemyIt looks to me we had started the bottoming process in UGAZ . Price broke below 13$ with no follow through and on August 5 we broke below 11.69$ and started to recover on the next day . The weekly chart of NatGAS last week printed a hammer which often signs the end of the downtrend. This week we have the follow and the weekly swing. Two weeks ago UGAZ had a record volume. And what is more interesting is the COT number of NatGas. The numbers on 2019 July 23 The open interest is 1.310.300 . It's quite high but I have seen higher numbers than this. There were 1.600-1.700.000 in bullish periods. The large speculators are heavily short with 191.423 contracts. (190k long, 381k short) The commercial net long position is 160.735 which is extremely bullish , and what is more interesting is the long contract number. The long contract number is: 642337. There was only 2 time when the long contract number was higher than this in the last 10 years: 2019.05.14. : 654.311, but this time the short contract number was quite high 609.089 so the net long commercial position was only 45.222. 2018.09.18 : 660.776, and this time the short contract number was 605.712 so the net long was only 55.064. Look what started in 2018 September: Natty almost doubled... This time we have a nearly all time high in commercial long contract number and as commercials already covered many shorts (we have only 481.600 short - remember last Septemeber this number was 605.712) we have a 160.735 net long commercial long contract... The numbers on 2019 July 30 Open interest 1.342.656 (+32.000) Large specs long: +23.776 Large specs short: +32.138 Large specs shorts increased by 8362 contracts Commercials: Net long contracts increased by 5914 from 160.735 to 166.649. The blees rating is 100 what is very bullish. I have seen blees at 100 for weeks with price not moving or dropping slowly. But.........!!!! Long contracts: 668.966. THIS IS ALL TIME HIGH. The commercials in the past never ever had 668.966 long contracts. And the blees rating is at bullish territory. I’m sure the commercials know something what we don’t. If they are long with that amount of contract number I want to be with them. The numbers on 2019 Aug 6 Open interest 1.375.410 (+32.750) Large specs long: +118 ( Almost the same) Large specs short: +414 (Almost the same) Commercials: Net long contracts increased by 1218 from 166.649 to 167.867 . Long contracts: 668.966, increased by 14.638. THIS IS NEW ALL TIME HIGH. Again. They are preparing for a big rally.
ULong
by chartwatchers
17
NG - NatGas on it's path to the 3rd highThis market is only for a view investors, but really not recommended for retail traders with pockets smaller then a couple Millions. As for the chart analysis on the weekly timeframe, we see that price had blown through the confluence point and through a couple resistance ranges. The target is the white centerline. A potential pullback to the prior resistance is absolutely possible. Remember what Forks are for: "They project the most probable path of price", nothing more, nothing less. So as long as price trades within the white up-sloping Fork, the direction is clear. Don't mess with the Dragon if you're not really sure you can handle him... P!
NYMEX:NG1!Long
by Tr8dingN3rd
NG1! - NatGas potential to turn.The white fork gives us the most probable path of price on a longterm scale, it's up. The yellow fork is the opposite force, and projects the potential for a pullback from the very top, with the target at the centerline. The price drop through the yellow centerline lead in a halt right before the L-MLH (Lower-Medianline-Parallel) of the yellow Fork. This halt, or "not reaching the L-MLH) is called a HAGOPIAN in the Forkers term. It gives us a heads up that price will move in the opposite direction more then from where price came (...from the yellow centerline). In short: - Price has reached a high probability area where it has the tendency to turn the current trend. - Confluence of two Fork-Lines indicate the same. - The uncleared HGPN at the yellow L-MLH tells the same. - The red pressing line looks scary, but is probably just a fake. - A "Flush" of the longs below the yellow Centerline, and then a sharp climb up above again would not be surprising. P!
NYMEX:NG1!Long
by Tr8dingN3rd
NatGas - New possibilitiesI would like to start with the indicators here. First of all the Slow Stochastic. Every time in the last 3 years when the StowStoch printed a flat bottom at the oversold levels it was followed by a strong rally in NatGas prices. Today the situation is the same : we have a flat bottom again. MACD is also crossing over after the extreme oversold levels and RSI already left the extremes. Last year's consolidation ruined the cycle count a bit. We clearly had an ICL on the 9th Nov 2016 but the next daily cycle dropped too much : on the 22th Feb 2017 we almost dropped to the ICL level at 2.387. It's still not crystal clear : was the 2017.02.22 low a DCL or an ICL of a very short cycle? This way or the other it was an important sign that NatGas was not ready to print an ultimate rally : we had a frustrating consolidation in 2017. The consolidations are pretty hard to trade if you are waiting for a strong trending rally. Every pattern is evolving into a new one. First we had a triangle, the triangle evolved into a range , the range broke down and later evolved into declining channel etc etc. Based on the indicators and price action I think Natgas is ready to rally again. I'm not sure it will be able to break out of the consolidation though... 20th Dec 2017 most probably was an ICL. If that is the case we mustn't drop below that level for a few weeks/months. The perfect scenario would have been to touch the trendline without taking out the lows of December 2017. I was waiting for this but it never happened. So we will enter here where indicators are clearly giving the reversal signs... My suggestion is to enter 15-20% margin impact here . If we tag the trendline in the following few days you can double the position. ***
OANDA:NATGASUSDLong
by chartwatchers
16
NATGAS Bullish Once MoreNATGAS has has both a strong local and general double bottom and is looking to retest 3.0-3.1 and higher before it sees 2.5 again. Strong gap up over weekend was very predictable as is evidenced from my idea last week. With both strong fundamentals (bullish report) and strong technicals (respected double bottoms) shorts would be wise to wait and watch for a while. For those who are getting in late, UGAZ should still be a good buy come market open on Tuesday with a safe selling target of 3.05 (in the NATGAS index) or possibly even higher should we break into the fib channel at 3.1 or so. Stay safe and good luck! EDIT: Attached is an image of the local double bottom in case you can't see it because of my text bubble.
OANDA:NATGASUSDLong
by Bikko_Koiwai
NatGas - NutGasIn my last idea I sugggested try to get in the trade somehow because the consolidation is over sooner or later and we are breaking out. Though we couldn't catch the exact bottom and the position got risky as we broke down of the range all who were able to hold through the panic are in profit today. There was an undercut low with a false breakdown of the range but today it just seems it was a final shakeout . My only concern : is that possible we had a mild ICL? Triangles and ranges are screwing the cycles so it's almost impossible to trade them based on cycles. We have to assume that the ICL is behind us on the 1st of November. We broke out of the range last week Thursday and the next resistance ahead of us at 3.161$. When a multi month consolidation like this breaks it bounces hard. So all who are not in the train will have to buy into the overbought conditions or wait for the never coming pullback. I still got many messages how to enter into a NatGas or UGAZ trade right now. It's really hard to help when the train is leaving the station. We entered early and had to bear a drawdawn where price seemed to go much lower. Contrarians didn't help us to hold the position, too... But it was still easier to enter early than to enter a position at the exact bottom. I saw a few people below my post who entered near to the exact bottom or added to the position at the lows. You can still check who had the balls to enter there and also post in real time . But the hardest part is just coming in the following weeks. Sit tight and let the winners run. It doesn't matter if you caught the exact bottom or not. The big money will be in the uptrend in the next 2 month. I still think that commodities are in a new bull market. Natty also holding above the 2015 and 2016 yearly lows . The pattern has the characteristic of accumulation which wants to break to the upside.( Volume is supporting the accumulation) I set the 200 SMA on the chart. We might or might not have a pullback to the 200 SMA from the next resistance level before breaking higher. Last year the seasonal rally was relentless. There was not much of a pullback. Though the ICL a few days ago was not that deep like last year: the consolidation was long enough to have a big rally into year end. RSI is already overbought so it's possible we will have a pullback, but it can also run for weeks in the overbought territory and before the daily cycle tops it will print an RSI divergence with higher high in the price. MACD still has a long way to run. LONG follow through idea. We are long from 2.855. We traded successfully last year's winter rally:
OANDA:NATGASUSDLong
by chartwatchers
510