NATURAL GAS
Weekly analysis on NG by ThinkinAntsOkToday we will focus on the Weekly chart on Natural Gas. Use this as a guide to develop your view of the chart:
Main items we can see:
a)Currently, the price is on a massive support zone
b)In 2012 and 2016 we observed massive reversal movements on the area between 1.90 and 1.60
c)If we are thinking about developing long setups, we have a good filter that has worked on previous situations
d)First, we need a clear breakout of the descending trendline / Second, we need a corrective movement / If that happens, the setup will be ready to trade.
e)This is a Swing view, which means that it requires patience to wait for the expected formation.
f) We will not develop short trades unless there are clear signs that the support zone is broken.
Natural Gas (up or down) Pick your poisonIn my own opinion, since Natural Gas first landed on the market in 2004, it has 1 all time low at 1.574, which is lower than 2004 and since then we have never tested this bottom again. I think with news of coronavirus, it is the perfect opportunity for this level to be tested and i think it will go much further down creating a new low for natural gas.
DISCLAIMER
Please note that this chart is an opinion based chart only. Please trade at your own risk
NATGAS - price bounce from monthly supportThe US Natural Gas is now trading at a monthly low. From a technical perspective, price is now trading in the accumulation zone, MA's about to cross we expect the next push to the upside.
Price is growing with increasing volume, now retraced to the previous resistance now acting as support. Therefore we will long the commodity at the price of $1.89 per cubic feet.
The first target is the downwards trendline, at price $2.10. From there a retest of the low might happen. Our longer-term view on NATGAS is still bullish.
The past 5 weeks of Natural Gas Storage showed less than forecast, an increase in demand is signaled.
Traders if you follow this idea, we recommend entering with prudence and proper risk management according to your strategy.
Know your trading conditions for this asset. Spreads and lot sizes are high, do the research first.
The CHK perspectiveI like Chesapeake energy for the longer term investment. Energy has been lagging compared to other sectors over the last few years and there is tremendous potential in good energy companies. CHK is historically cheap and could do very well if energy takes off. However, I suspect more pain ahead for oil with the potential for an enormous flush.. perhaps below 2016 levels.. Regardless of that, I think oil goes bonkers high over the next 6-7 years. I'm looking at holding some longer term USO call options (if we see a deep oil flush) as well as a few good oil/energy companies.. CHK is one of those in my opinion. CHK could disappear.. there's always risk in investing but I'm accumulating shares of CHK sub .48 but I wouldn't be surprised to see .20 either. We have some chart history that demonstrates these exact type of moves- From current levels, a $20/share run would equate to a 45x (4500%).. a move back to the 2008 ($69 per share) high would be 16000+% (160x). It can go to $70+ or it can go to 0.. This is a long term trade that has some risks so I'm only willing to put in what I'm willing to lose.
Natural Gas NatgasOlder Chart with some weekly lines lightened. Heavy resistance from TA previous trendlines/breaks/ moving averages, etc. Watching current range, if I see a nice daily close above first resistance bottom line, I'll add to position. Keeping this simple. Will elaborate the chart later.