NATURAL GAS
Natural Gas (NATGAS) Trading Plan
hey traders,
from November the market is prevailingly bearish.
after a retracement from 2.150 support, I believe that the market may continue lower.
Pay attention to a small rising channel on 4H. Bearish breakout of it will trigger a bearish reaction of market participants.
our target levels will be:
2.2
2.1
*in case of a bullish continuation and market close above 2.35 setup will be invalid and bias will switch to bullish
Natural Swing Head and Shoulders on the 1H time frame for Natgas , probably sending the price for todays trading session towards the red line that acts as a downslopping resistance ,
That will be a nice entry point for the next swing high .
NATGAS: Market Overview and How to TradeThe market has been moving sideways since May 2019. We have the price channel with the upper and bottom zones and borders at 2.040 and 2.780 levels.
Now the price is at the bottom zone, and it gives us a possible buy opportunity based on the daily timeframe. If the market bounces between 2.040 and 2.150 or from this support only, it will be possible to buy with stop orders below 2.040 and the profit target at 2.600 resistance.
If the price breaks the support at 2.040 and moves lower, it will be a bearish signal. The market will be able to continue the downtrend.
Natural Gas Price breaking up back inside to the Fib Triangle( see link on chart )
Price on natural gas has to climb back up through the upper resistance of the Blue triangle so bulls get more chances to square up after the gap we had last Friday sending the price to test the two different resistances above it - green and if breaks through that red line to follow where 50 MA on daily is currently looking at -
Failing to keep price above the down sloping resistance of the triangle will send us down to the parallel resistance bellow it .
Weather forecast as we go towards the end of the week will determine how price will move around these resistance / support lines.
NATGAS can start rising from this place...If the price will make a pullback to Buy Zone we can open a Buy position.
It's a huge probability for start rising from that Support Zone near 2.179.
Push like if you think this is a useful idea!
Before to trade my ideas make your own analyze.
Write your comments and questions here!
Thanks for your support!
Natgas Bearish Wedge Breakout Trade!! And Next Long TradeNatgas seems to be in a corrective rising wedge. Trade the breakout of the wedge. Use proper Risk Management.
NATGAS: Bearish Continuation To Year's Low
hey traders,
it looks like natgas is going to retest current year's low.
2.04 - 2.1 area is on my radar,
I will be looking for a reversal formation within this area to buy the market
expecting a pullback at least to 2.250
Natural Gas Fib Triangle Interesting watching how Natural gas price is responding to those two different Fibonacci channels
The one is the upwards Fib channel we were in before selling off and currently rejected from - upper resistance, and the other one is the one we are consolidating in for the last couple of weeks moving downwards giving the down sloping support . Those two lines make a triangle - narrow blue area - where a less volatile asset would potentially consolidate in for a while before breaking towards any direction. Natural gas been volatile as it is wont stay there for long though.
Happy trading :)
Multi-Timeframe Analysis / Natural Gas Futures by ThinkingAntsOkUse this as a guide to develop your view:
Main items we can observe on the 4HS chart:
a)Price has broken the primary structure (yellow lines) with a bearish movement
b)The price found support on the 2.20 level
c)We Expect an ABC formation with a pullback to the broken structure
d)If the ABC formation happens, we forecast a continuation of the bearish movement towards the next support zone at the 1.7 level
Daily Vision:
Weekly Vision:
Strong Support & Favorable Risk-Reward in Natural GasI'm bullish in the short-term and through 2020.
- Natural Gas ($2.327) is currently sitting below the 20d ($2.37), 50d ($2.56), and 200d ($2.8) MAs.
- The recent retest of the 13-year falling trendline (orange) should also strengthen bull cases. In 2016 the trendline changed from resistance to support. And most recently in August, Natural Gas bounced off this trendline with gusto.
- Several converging support levels. There is minimal downside in Natural Gas Versus upside.
Over the short-term, 2-4 weeks, I think $2.55 will be achieved. From there $3.0 will potentially be next. I believe the support at $2.1 and $2.2 will hold over the near-term. I believe $3.8 may be achieved at some point in 2020.
Of course, there does exist risk in Natural Gas. There is a bear case. We could see a sell-off towards the lowest support levels. That would come in around $1.3. If that selloff does come, the signals will be the price action between 2.2-1.9 and a breaching of the white & orange trendlines lower. If this selloff does occur, I expect these lower prices to get bought up very quickly, thus making this scenario a strategic buying opportunity.
I welcome this selloff but I am not waiting for it. I expect the white support lines to be respected and for 3.0 to be achieved in the next couple months.
Natural Gas - EIA Natgas Storage ReportAfter Friday's drop I started to analyze Natural Gas with watching the fundamentals much closer. Cycles alone are simply not enough for predicting future price in this volatile commodity.
Earlier this year I posted this idea :
I still think that we printed the 3 year cycle low back in August.I updated a bit the idea chart - as I was early when I was waiting for the bottom in May:
Techincals:
After Friday's massacre price dropped enough to break the trendline, but at the end of the day we stayed in the rising channel. Monday price bounced and Tuesday we had a massive short squeeze as price broke through the 50 SMA and tagged the 200 SMA. The day finished well below the 200 SMA - and the 50 SMA too - but bears tasted a bit how overcrowded the short side and this is not a one way street.
In the previous idea I was calling an early DCL on the 11th October:
but now it's clear it was only a half cycle low and we are back to the stretched daily cycles which are 75-85 days long.
The trendline break is quite normal at the daily cycle low just as the Bollinger Band crash signal and the 6 day RSI in the oversold territory.
So after the Aug.2. intermediate cycle low we have a DCL in place last Friday:
Who trusts in cycles - I do - knows that after the first DCL there is a good chance that the next daily cycle will right translate with a higher high above the November high.
So cycle wise I'm still expecting a daily cycle top somewhere above 2.8$.
And here comes the the advance of cycles vs to the fundamental traders.
Fundamental traders are still expecting 2.5-2.6 maximum on this bounce , but I don't want to lose the possibility of a 1$ bounce because of the mild winter forecasts and global warming. I 've seen NatGas dropping on hard winters and we might see it bouncing on a mild winter where sudden arctic blasts are painting the picture and confusing the forecasts.
Fundamentals:
I'm closely monitoring the near-term computer model outlook. This will be the main driver of NatGas prices in the following days.The drop on Tuesday fundamentally was driven by the December 10-15 forecast of an arctic outbreak. I'm following 2 models: GFS Ensemble model and the ECMWF ensemble model. There is an interesting divergence between the 2 models. While both model is forecasting a colder than normal mid December weather, the GFS coming in much colder than the ECMWF. GFS is showing blasts of arctic air after the the 13 of December causing significantly below normal temperatures.
So fundamentally we have both doors open to break up or break down in the following weeks , but if I'm watching the cycles and fundamentals together - knowing how overcrowded the short side in this market - I'm convinced that the surprises will move this market to or above 3$ in the following 2 months.
Today's report is coming out at 10:30 EST, the forecast is -22B.
NATGASUSD -AnalysisNATGASUSD is highly oversold on every single chart except the daily (M30, 1H, 2H, 4H). On the daily chart, while not oversold, we have reached the RSI support line we have held since August 2019 (3 mo.). This line can easily be broken, but it is here where I am taking a position with a tight stop loss.
Price bounced from the 2.26 (0.236) fibb level, and will normally reach 0.50 fibb (2.37-2.40) before next big move.
Another option - is that it is setting up a much larger bearish head and shoulders pattern, which is a common pattern as I have noticed and mentioned in previous analyses.
Winter storms are still to come, even though this winter is predicted to be lighter than most. I think reaction was very strong in the past daily sell off, and should rebound to at least 2.37-2.40.
NATGAS bounced from support, potential for a further rise!
NATGAS bounced off 2.255 where it could potentially rise further to 2.430.
*Disclaimer.*
Trading leveraged products carries a high level of risk and may result in you losing substantially more than your initial investment. Pepperstone Group Limited is licensed and regulated by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission (AFSL 414530). Pepperstone Limited is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (FRN 684312). This information is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person in any country or jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation.
NatGas LongBased on previous bounces on the actual trendline, Natgas should go long, need to wait for price confirmation.
