NATURAL GAS: Bullish Continuation
hey traders,
I was asked to share my thoughts on nat .gas :)
on a daily the market has reached a key level of support:
conjunction of horizontal support with a falling trendline of a broken channel and rsi divergence.
I think that buyers will push the market to higher levels.
Key levels of resistance are:
2.37
2.47
NATURAL GAS
NATURAL GAS: Bullish Continuation
hey traders,
I was asked to share my thoughts on nat.gas :)
on a daily the market has reached a key level of support:
conjunction of horizontal support with a falling trendline of a broken channel and rsi divergence.
I think that buyers will push the market to higher levels.
Key levels of resistance are:
2.37
2.47
Natural Gas - Training DayAs we are getting close to the winter I'm also watching the Natural Gas December and January futures as price most probably will peak at the end of the year.
Yesterday's chart was very interesting in both.
Though we lost both the 50 and 100 SMA I think price finally is ready to bounce again.
The decline was much more severe than I was waiting for. (Fibonacci 78,6 % retracement)
The good news that both the January and December contract printed a swing on the daily chart.
I would like to see a fast recovery above the 50 SMA this week.
The 5 day RSI turned up from oversold conditions, and SToch RSI has reached the oversold territory.
Both the MACD and the TSI at the zero line. If this is a new IC than we need to turn up from her in both indicator.
Finally we had a nice volume yesterday and this combined with a swing is a very good news for the bulls.
The pullback has tagged the Fibonacci 78,6% line. In Natgas it' s quite normal : this is a volatile beast:
NATGAS - Possible anomaly in wave countHi Traders
I decided to post this chart because I noticed that , at first glance NATGAS completed 5 waves up and therefore, at the end of this retracement, Traders will think that that the move will be up to the 3 rd wave of the higher degree.
I was trying to fit Fibonacci as confirmation, and it didn't match .. I went to a lower time frame and I adjusted the count... If you try the Fib extension considering what we just completed as a wave 3 of 5, I think that you will be surprised on how the Fibs extensions match perfectly
I think we are close to a big up move after (if I am correct), a further short wave up and consequent retracement (as shown bu the arrow)
Happy trading
NatGas - 28 days laterOn the 5th of August NatGas printed a multi year low.
28 +1 day later we tagged the 200 SMA
Before I start the update , I suggest you to read this idea from April:
I was a bit early there, but actually nothing has changed: we started a new 3 year cycle. And in this 3 year cycle I think NatGas is going to break above 5$ and probably will break the resistance at 5,5$...
In this first daily cycle price tagged the 200 SMA and turned down. I'M not sure this is the daily cycle high as Natty usually has 60-70 days long daily cycles so this top probably just a smaller peak in this daily cycle and the cycle top is still far away . ( Not talking about the intermediate top which is probably coming only in December or January. So we have a long long way to go from here.)
The reason I'm posting this new idea because I think at this point one can add to the existing position or those who are sitting on the sidelines this is the possibility to enter with a long trade.
I see many traders anticipating a H&S formation where Natty is breaking down and heading to 2$.
But cycles are not supporting this pattern so most probably we are just printing a trend strengthening cup and handle pattern which is a rare pattern. In this scenario instead of printing a right shoulder price will just rally to new highs leaving behind all those who are trying to short the rally out of a multi year low.
The rally out of the last 3 YCL was weaker.
At that time we almost tagged the 200 SMA at the daily cycle top and started to drop into the HCL.
The decline stopped at the 100 SMA and the BB medium line . Then one more attack and one more drop came before we broke through the 200 SMA.
This year we might zig-zag between the 200 SMA and 100 SMA
before price breaks above the 200 SMA....
...or we just slice through it on the first try as I signed on this idea's opening picture above.
The Stoch RSI just tagged the oversold territory and we are almost at the BB's medium line.
We might be ready to break higher next week...
I think this is one of the greatest opportunities this year after gold broke out of the 3 year consolidation.
$CRK Is A Bet On Cowboys' Owner Jerry JonesThe oil patch is full of boom and bust opportunities. One pick that we like is $CRK.
With $CRK, you're betting that nat gas prices have finally bottomed and that Dallas Cowboys owner Jerry Jones has found a hidden diamond in the rough.
Yesterday's headlines:
Comstock Resources (CRK +19.5%) spikes to its highest levels in six months on much heavier than usual volume after controlling shareholder Jerry Jones offered upbeat comments on CNBC about the company's acquisition of Covey Park.
"Comstock has one of the best positions of leases relative to the cheapest place... in the world to get gas to the market," Jones told CNBC this morning, adding that as a contrarian, he believes now is time to buy into natural gas.
CRK "has done a great job with Covery Park in acquiring a lot of leases" which are "in the pathway to the great markets of the Gulf ."
Master 1D Chart Analysis: +80% is possible hereHi, guys!
Master (Pure) Charting Analysis: no indicators, no fancy drawings; only Pure Logic and 10 years of Experience .
* NatGas is deemed as one of the best trading (investment) opportunities currently present on the market.
* Resistance volumes are absent in the range from $2.50 to $4.10 = open Upside potential.
* Smooth ascending motion on low volatility allows staying in a comfortable trade.
Trade Signal
Buy at the current level (around $2.50).
Target: $4.00 - 4.50.
Stop-loss: $2.20.
Risk/Reward: 5:1
GOOD LUCK!
Yours,
Market Wizzard
$NG1! Showing A Similar Trading Pattern As Last Year$NG1! prices have been depressed for so long, that the only play this year has been short.
As we look ahead to the upcoming winter season, we usually get a strong rally as traders buy the rumor or fear of a harsh winter. Once reality sets in and winter arrives, prices usually sell off.
There's an opportunity for traders to get in and play the fall rally.
Traders need to keep an eye on the 200 day moving average of 2.760 in front month nat gas contracts. Above there, and we have a trend change and algo funds will pile in.
It's important to monitor weekly inventory reports every Thursday. Another way to play is with small producers like our recommendation in $CRK.
As always, use protective stops and trade with caution.
Good luck to all!