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NATURAL GAS

Natural Gas Seasonal Bullish Setup Weekly / DailyNatural Gas is showing signs of strength aligning with seasonality data. "Analysis has revealed that with a buy date of September 2 and a sell date of October 20, investors have benefited from a total return of 56.09% over the last 10 years. This scenario has shown positive results in 7 of those periods." www.equityclock.com Weekly chart shows price trading within a descending channel since 2009, which is actually part of a larger falling wedge originating from the 2006 high. When the wedge is drawn on a chart of NG futures contracts, it actually shows bulls attempted to break out of the wedge when price spiked Oct - Dec of last year. Three consecutive weekly rejection candles clearly show the attempted breakout before bulls gave up and price broke down. (Will post a snapshot in the comments) The large spike in price 2018 occurred within the same seasonal range. Price rose from $2.75 to $4.88 a 75% gain in a matter of weeks. Natural Gas reserves have been steadily declining since 2016 (I charted data from ir.eia.gov), shown below. Peak reserves in 2018 were at the lowest level since 2005, a time when prices were trading around $14.00. Even considering a decrease in demand and new technologies increasing potential supply, last weeks closing price of $2.48 is still trading at a steep discount... prntscr.com Daily chart shows a smaller descending channel which was broken to the upside last week. Price is currently nearing short term resistance. Expect trend to resume to the upside. Looking for possible channel retest or pullback on the 1 hour chart to enter with trend. Technicals and fundamentals seem to be aligning for a low risk / high reward trade opportunity over the course of the next couple months. $2.30 = channel support $2.05 = YTD low Commodities in general are coming off multi-year lows and seem to be gaining favor.... Will post daily chart in the comments for context.
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by cccpKGB1
NatGas - Monthly overviewWhy the previous long idea is so interesting....? I highlighted by red arrows the 3 year cycle lows. There was a one in 2006 Sept, the next 2009 Sept, then 2012 April, and 2016 March... And I think the next one is here in 2019 April.... On the monthly chart the bear started in 2006. The first multi year cycle printed the low in 2006 September. The second one broke down tested back the highs and printed a double top; the low arrived in 2009 September. The third multi year cycle printed lower lows lower highs : clear bear market with a new low in 2012 April. The fourth multi year cycle‘s yearly cycle started making higher highs but it was not enough to print a multi year cycle’s higher high. This multi year cycle low ended in 2016 March with a depressive low. The fifth multi year cycle( we are still in this one) spent most of its time in a range. And the range broke up. Still not a higher high in the multi year cycle but attacking that 5 $ level again. We are due for a multi year low again. Oil printed it. Gold printed it. So most of the commodity complex is ready to suck in the printed billions what central banks produced in the last few years. Seasonality. The multi year highs are usually peaking in November - December, so we need to be in position for 6-7 months.. But if we starting a new bull market we might have 2 yearly high. One before summer one after it. The multi year cycle's gains : 2: 4.2 to 13.6 323% 3: 2.2 to 6.1 272% 4: 1.9 to 5.5 289% 5: 1.6 to 4.87 304% 6: 2.56 to ??? That's why it is so important to try to catch the daily cycle lows these times in Natty...
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by chartwatchers
5
NATGASUSD - Natural Gas Nearing Top of Long Term Channel Getting ready to buy inverse natural gas, $DGAZ. Natural gas is nearing the long term channel which it hasn't broken several times. Natural gas has touched the top of this channel every - 6.90 - 7.00% as you can see in the D1 graph. First touch - -6.99%, 994 bars (62 d 15 h) Second touch -6.90%, 860 bars (54 d 00 h) Wait for strong breakout confirmation of the channel, I would wait for a strong confirmation to avoid a false breakout, then buy when it rebounds off the previous channel resistance (possibly breaking 2.34 - 2.35 area or greater). (More likely scenario) Wait for strong rebound and go long term inverse gas / short.
OANDA:NATGASUSD
by gbleier
UGAZ - Sleeping with the enemyIt looks to me we had started the bottoming process in UGAZ . Price broke below 13$ with no follow through and on August 5 we broke below 11.69$ and started to recover on the next day . The weekly chart of NatGAS last week printed a hammer which often signs the end of the downtrend. This week we have the follow and the weekly swing. Two weeks ago UGAZ had a record volume. And what is more interesting is the COT number of NatGas. The numbers on 2019 July 23 The open interest is 1.310.300 . It's quite high but I have seen higher numbers than this. There were 1.600-1.700.000 in bullish periods. The large speculators are heavily short with 191.423 contracts. (190k long, 381k short) The commercial net long position is 160.735 which is extremely bullish , and what is more interesting is the long contract number. The long contract number is: 642337. There was only 2 time when the long contract number was higher than this in the last 10 years: 2019.05.14. : 654.311, but this time the short contract number was quite high 609.089 so the net long commercial position was only 45.222. 2018.09.18 : 660.776, and this time the short contract number was 605.712 so the net long was only 55.064. Look what started in 2018 September: Natty almost doubled... This time we have a nearly all time high in commercial long contract number and as commercials already covered many shorts (we have only 481.600 short - remember last Septemeber this number was 605.712) we have a 160.735 net long commercial long contract... The numbers on 2019 July 30 Open interest 1.342.656 (+32.000) Large specs long: +23.776 Large specs short: +32.138 Large specs shorts increased by 8362 contracts Commercials: Net long contracts increased by 5914 from 160.735 to 166.649. The blees rating is 100 what is very bullish. I have seen blees at 100 for weeks with price not moving or dropping slowly. But.........!!!! Long contracts: 668.966. THIS IS ALL TIME HIGH. The commercials in the past never ever had 668.966 long contracts. And the blees rating is at bullish territory. I’m sure the commercials know something what we don’t. If they are long with that amount of contract number I want to be with them. The numbers on 2019 Aug 6 Open interest 1.375.410 (+32.750) Large specs long: +118 ( Almost the same) Large specs short: +414 (Almost the same) Commercials: Net long contracts increased by 1218 from 166.649 to 167.867 . Long contracts: 668.966, increased by 14.638. THIS IS NEW ALL TIME HIGH. Again. They are preparing for a big rally.
ULong
by chartwatchers
17
Natgas channel - almost time to go longNatgas has been trending lower between perfectly parallel channel lines since February. The next bottom is at 2.01, after which you would expect a bounce to an upper channel resistance of 2.34. This is just on a technical basis. On a fundamental basis, the price has gotten dirt cheap with a lot of natgas producers unprofitable here, meaning a bullish direction reversal could happen any time now, and the bottom of 2.01 on the channel could never be reached. Remember inventories are below 5 year averages and we are trending towards end of summer, with winter stocking not so far away now
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by tanc87
NatGas Needs Solid Reason(s) To RallyOverall it's easy to see from fundamentals and technixals, that the bears are pushing this hard. I think an aim for them is at $2 which may see after summer season, but if production keeps up, and there's no on going heat waves, is a possibility. At the moment NatGas needs simultaneous bullish news - possibly this Thursday EIA report below 5 year avg + high demand from further heat waves + possible supply disruptions With another heat wave hitting Europe, there's still a good chance same is going strike US after this week's cooling off. The recent fib level if holds offers support otherwise back to $2.20 and below I am long though wondering what downside can happen at the moment unless highly bearish news - but if price gets to $2.50, unless some other news comes out, would look at short from there and close long. That said, if weather in August offers week on week heat, looking 100 Fahrenheit over larger population centres, could see a short squeeze, and melt up to even possibly $2.70 but I think this would be an exception. At the moment I think risk is to downside in very short term, even if EIA report is another bullish injection may not be enough. Am personally long though, as I get a financing credit, and give a 20% chance (jut based on opinion) of after this week mild weather, of some sort of extended heat over mid August - September. Overall I am long, but there's a big risk to downside and setting up a new $2 - $2.30 trading range, then another drop below $2 once any chance of summer heat gone and into September.
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by KevinOrchard