NATGAS bounce from Mid term support area NATGAS bounce from Mid term support area of 2.80. Going to play it for 2.9+
NATURAL GAS
NatGas - Sun of the BeachI think most of you who were trading Natty in the last few months had mentioned the title at least once or twice.
It's toying with us. So there are 2 options :
1. Get out and find some other vehicle.
2. Try to trade it somehow because the consolidation will be over sooner or later.
Those who follow me for a while know which pill I have chosen.
At the last NatGas idea I suggested a buying at or before 9/11 based on the cycles. For a few days it looked good but after a breakout of the triangle we broke down from the triangle. Triangles are screwing the cycles so it's almost impossible to trade them based on cycles.
Most probably we printed the ICL on the 4th of August and the 9th of October was a the new intermediate cycle's first daily cycle low.
When the triangle breaks up and down in a few days the pattern becomes almost impossible to trade.
I assume that commodities are in a new bull market. Natty also holding above the 2015 and 2016 yearly lows and day after day it's losing the chance to break lower. This pattern is a sign of accumulation which wants to break to the upside.(Volume is supporting the accumulation idea)
When? Maybe tomorrow , maybe next week, maybe only January. But when a consolidation like this breaks it bounces hard. So all who are not in the train will have to buy into the overbought condition or wait for the never coming pullback.
So my suggestion is here to have some kind of starting position. What I think even if we are breaking down we will not break below 2.387$.
2.387$ is 17% lower than today's price . So all who takes this trade will have to prepare for one more drawdown .There might or might not be a drawdown but if it comes I will be buying there also.
The break above the 200 SMA will be an important sign that the party is starting. Notice how the 200 SMA stopped the rally again and again. The next significant breakout above it will hold.
Instead of watching the triangle I will watch the above range from today.
Bullish NATGASUSD for month of SeptemberI expect price to close above the moving average for he month of September.
I'll be looking for bull signals on the daily time frame.
Entries will have a stop loss but no take profit targets. Trades will be closed when monthly candle finishes painting.
NATGAS short setup Looking at the rejection in the last few weeks i would say it would break the resistance.
waiting for some conformation as well.
this trade is all about resistance. be careful , and watch the 4h as well as 1h chart for good entry.
Good Luck All,,,,
Natgas: 25-26Natgas hasn't impressed much in this intermediate cycle, trend has been downwards, sideways.
The last 25-26 days of an intermediate cycle are normally rough for natgas. My main trend-change I expect approx Sept 27. This chart would place a low in at Sept 15th, so in the later half of September, I expect a trend-change to occur to the upside.
I will hold my short positions until Sept 15th and start with long entries from around that date.
NAtGas - Buying before 9/11We had our convincing bounce from the lower trendline near to the 400 SMA.
I was close to call the bottom a few days ago. But it's still not ready yet.
The last bounce was showing weakness. We weren't able to tag nor the upper trendline of the triangle nor the 200 SMA.
We are waiting for an intermediate low at this point in Natty. A rally out of an intermediate low is almost always strong, price should not hesitate to break the trendline or the 200 SMA.
After Friday's close it seems we are attacking the lower trendline again.
The plan is the same as it was in the previous idea. The difference is the time frame: we need to buy before 9.11.
The cycle cannot stretch longer than that date.
The plan is to Buy between 2.73 and 2.5$.
I still would like to see the RSI and SlowStoch become oversold extremely . And we still mustn't break below 2.387$ ( the previous ICL).
I modified a little bit the lower trendline : the last drop was just a false breakdown.
Bearish for 1 month NATGASUSD NATGASUSD already broke big wedge pattern, and trap inside parallel channel down,
this is a good moment to follow nearish after bearish flag breakdown yesterday, with target at double bottom ( 2.591 )
Disclaimer :
This analysis not include personal feeling/opinion, and pure base on technical analysis
Trading foreign currencies can be a challenging and potentially profitable opportunity for investors. However, before deciding to participate in the Forex market, you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. Most importantly, do not invest money you cannot afford to lose.
please inform me with post a comment if it reach some critical point/break pattern, reach target/reach stop level, or if there is any question about this analysis/need new update.
Gartley pattern forming on Natural GasGartley pattern forming on Natural Gas. Expecting price to reach 3.04 - 3.08 area to complete B-C.
BAT Pattern completed on Natural Gas. Retracement underwayBAT Pattern completed on Natural Gas, retracement underway. Targeting 50 fib retracement of A-D.
Nat Gas forming a clone?Natural gas looks to be forming a replica of itself, and if history repeats its in for a significant fall.
Natural Gas: Completed Cypher and 2x AB=CD in Oversold TerritoryThe current price is 3.065 (this chart is delayed) and I have just entered.
NATGASUSD Short Hello,
I think NATGASUSD is in for a bigger drop and report may be the catalyst .
Consider the scenario.
1. It consolidated in a range for a long time
2. Made a higher but was unable to hold gains
3. Second wave up after the last report failed to make a newer high
4. It closed on channel below the channel
5. Almost half the volume on the upswings and new highs
That's how I look at things. Trade accordingly. I'd wait until it hits the Declining channel then short. 3.315 would be my stop if I short at around touch of declining channel.
Will be a good risk/reward because I'd short it at touch of channel and stop at 3.315.
However, if it breaks the channel with conviction goes to set another high, this idea has failed it's validity.
NATGAS UPTHTRUST (FALSE BREAKOUT)$UGAZ
IT IS AN UPTHRUST AND IS JUST PART OF THE CYCLE
IN A LONG TERM WE ARE IN A BULLISH ABCD PATTERN BUT FOR NOW WE ARE GOING TO ENTER IN DANGER ZONE ABC=D ENDING IN 2.50
NatGas - Missed or Escaped?I got a few messages that we missed the NatGas rally. I'm not so sure about it...
Yes we missed this pop, but it looks fishy to me.
We are in the 2nd daily cycle of Natty and this daily cycle was not able to run to new highs. The previous daily cycle was a great run but the daily cycle decline was too strong... We got very close to the the ICL low at 2,4$. I was close to call a DCL at 24-25th April but after that scary first daily cycle low we should have had a steeper DCL...
Today's whole candlestick is out of the Bollinger Bands . This signal with the overbought RSI with decreasing volume is really strange.
So I think we are not at the beginning of a new daily cycle as many traders think, but we just topped today.
So I think we not missed the rally but escaped the possible false breakout of this consolidation.
If this is the case and we topped today this daily cycle is left translated daily cycle with a lower high which means a failed daily cycle.
Based on this speculation I will start a short trade in Natty here.
It's going to be a very small trade , with small margin impact : 2-3%, maximum 5%.
If I'm not right the volume will come in and we are breaking higher in the following few days but first price needs to get back between the Bollinger Bands . So we will still have time to stop out the position if we are in the wrong direction.
NEW SHORT ENTRY - up to 5% margin impact.
It's a very risky trade because Natty is a beast if it runs... If we don't reverse in 2-3 days and start a serious decline I will stop the position.
NG ShortHello,
Disclaimer-I'm new to all this.
This Up bar on daily had no volume compared to a previous Up bar we saw on 20 March 2017-(drawn for comparison). or 4 April 2017
I don't like to recommend anything but it's a requirement to post so ,
Stop loss -3.200 (if this seems too close, well it's a good placement so it'll make it clear pretty soon)
Potential loss of 360$ for gain of $1780 give or take commissions
Profit target is 2.986
That's it. I keep it simple.
Please trade accordingly.
NatGas Stalls at Key LevelNatural Gas stalled for the last 2 days and finally sold off today. There just wasn't enough power left in the recent bull move to climb above the 7 day moving average. Price is now wedged between the 7 and 21 day moving averages. If price does drop below the 21 day moving average, I expect that price would continue to at least the 3.00 level, which is the lower Bollinger Band.
Disclaimer: This post is for educational purposes only. Trading is at your own risk.
