Natural Gas Short Term Sell IdeaD1 - Price is bouncing lower from a strong resistance zone.
Bearish convergence.
H4 - Bearish trend pattern
Until the strong resistance zone holds I expect the price to move lower further after pullbacks.
Natgasusdsetup
Natural gas: When will the bloodshed stop?Natural gas prices (US Henry Hub) plunged 20% in the first week of 2023, dropping below pre-Russian invasion of Ukraine levels and continuing losses seen in the fourth quarter of 2023.
The sell-off was violent, mimicking a falling knife pattern, with prices sliding back to levels seen towards the end of 2021 and the RSI returning to oversold territory. aPrices are now two standard deviations lower than the 20-day moving average, while the 50-day and 200-day moving averages trade 70% and 100% above, respectively, than current prices. The decline from the highs reached in August is around 65%.
It appears that the apocalypse has arrived for the asset class that rose by 100% in the first eleven months of 2022, outperforming all major markets, only to lose all of its profits in one month.
Extremely high temperatures in Europe and the United States over the winter season kept natural gas supplies plentiful, causing prices to fall. According to NOAA predictions, temperatures on the North American continent will be above normal again in January 2023.
Prices for natural gas have hit a support level not seen in over a year, suggesting that an abundance of pessimism is already included into market valuations. Below this level of support, the next level to watch is 3.02 (June 2021 lows) and the psychological 3.00 level. That would imply a 70% loss from the peak, which would support some dip buying given that the market has not yet fully resolved the 2022 geopolitical issues.
In this case, technical analysis suggests that further declines are likely to be contained; similar oversold RSI levels in the past have been followed by weeks of bullish price action, suggesting that this sharp decline may not be without some upward potential. Prices might return to 4.47, the level at which they traded on the day of Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
Target 3.6Following weekly chart.
2.5 years old trend has been nearly broken.
Also there is a clear H&S formation. If it breaks
TP1 4.29
TP2 3.6
SL - follow weekly close above 6.85
Natural gas: Will Russia's supply cuts lead to new price highs?The price of natural gas has been going up and down like a roller coaster over the past month.
After suffering a severe 45% drop between June 8 and early July, US Henry Hub prices have risen nearly 80% since July 7, recouping all the losses.
What's going on in the natural gas market?
Russia is squeezing gas supplies to Europe via the NordStream (NS1) pipeline, pushing EU Dutch TTF prices above €190/MWh, approaching the record high reached in March.
Gazprom , the Russian energy giant, has announced that it will reduce NS1 daily flow to 33 million cubic metres, or about 20% of its capacity, citing problems with the pipeline's turbines. This puts at risk the region's goal of filling 80% of its storage capacity before winter.
According to recent Bruegel calculations, Europe may run out of gas in storage this winter if demand is not reduced. Such supply concerns prompted EU members to sign an agreement to cut their gas consumption by 15% over the next six months.
The worsening of the European gas crisis prompted a rush for supplies from other major producers, such as gas LNG from the United States and JKM from Asia. These markets are near full capacity for gas exports to Europe, so prices are rising and we may not have seen the peak yet.
From a technical standpoint, price momentum is pushing upward. Nine of the most recent ten sessions ended in the green, a streak that hadn't been seen since late March/early April 2022.
The RSI is now approaching overbought territory (70), but it may still have room to decisively break through this level.
The June bearish divergence thesis, based on rising prices/falling RSI, is now invalidated, showing that fundamental factors dominate technical considerations in the current natural gas market.
Gas Long SetupGAS Long Setup
🔵 Entry Level: $5.673
🟢 Take Profit: $6.094
⛔ Stop Loss: $5.441
Reasons:
- So far the price is respecting the ascending channel;
- I believe the price may bounce off the lower trendline in the area between $5.535 and $5.670.
Game Plan: If the price goes through the lower trendline (yellow), which at the moment acts as a support level, then I will be looking to open a short position on a retracement unless the 2nd trendline (white) acts as another support level.
Gas Long SetupGas Long Setup
🔵 Entry: $2.740
🟢 TP & RR: $2.890 (2.14)
⛔ Stop Loss: $2.670
Trade Reasons:
✔️ Oversold Level Market Flow
✔️ Diagonal Trend Line Support
Gas Long SetupGas Long Setup (refer to the setup marked with "2")
🔵 Entry: $2.704
🟢 TP & RR: $2.898 (3.4)
⛔ Stop Loss: $2.647
Trade Reasons:
✔️ Support level
✔️ Close to the 0.618 Fib retracement
✔️ Diagonal trend line within ascending channel
📝 A few things to note here:
1. Seeing how price action develops, you may close the trade setup suggested yesterday (marked as 1). You should end up with a tiny profit or break even (depending on the comission you pay). The current candle formation does not look promising for a long setup. Alternatively, trial the SL up as soon as/if price starts moving up.
2. I personally avoid having open positions near my entry level before the weekend, especially if that weekend happens to be the end of the month. So for me, this is a disproportionate risk.
3. Setup marked as "2" is the order I will be looking to open if price retraces to that level. The Stop Loss is not ideal, as I think it should be slighly under the 0.618 level, but I leave this up to you. Your RRR will decrease in proporiton to the distance to your SL.
Gas Long SetupGas Long Setup
🔵 Entry: $2.81
🟢 TP & RR: $3.04 (1.71)
⛔ Stop Loss: $2.67
Trade Reasons:
✔️ Reaching lower trend line
✔️ Reaching support level
✔️ Market Flow indicator printing small divergences in the oversold area
📝 Not a great RRR, but the SL is positioned at a very safe level below the diagonal trendline and the recent lowest low. If price bounces off that level I will be quick to trial the SL so that I minimize exposure and lock in some profits.
Nat. Gas. - LONG; Get ready to buy it up!Like the title says... This is a Buy here.
Here is the daily
GAS Fibonacci Retracement - Long TradeGas Fib Retracement - Long Order
Entry: $2.407
TP & RR: $2.549 (3.38)
Stop Loss: $2.365
REASONS FOR THE TRADE
So far Gas has respected the Fibonacci levels twice, leading me to believe that we may see a bounce from the 0.236 level and a potential reversal. We also have a descending trendline, which I am not sure how well will be respected, but it's worth keeping in mind. The Stop Loss is set at a reasonable distance from the Fib level and the target is at the 0.5 level. Although, if a reversal follows from 0.238, we may keep at least part of our position for higher levels.
Gas Climbing Up - Long OrderGas Climbing Up - Long Position
Entry: $2.715
TP & RR: $2.877 (3)
Stop Loss: $2.661
REASONS FOR THE TRADE
So far price action has formed a diagonal trend line, so I believe if it respects that level the price should bounce up and head towards a double top. There's also the possibility that we don't get filled and the price starts trending up without us, which is fine. We want to put the SL at a level that makes sense and the only one such is just too far, giving us a pretty bad Risk:Reward Ratio.
Gas Upper Trendline - Short PositionGas Upper Trendline - Short Trade
Entry: $2.845
TP & RR: $2.693 (2.08)
Stop Loss: $2.918
REASONS FOR THE TRADE
After the breakout from the descending channel, we see the price sliding up an inclined trend line. However, the price is now reaching major resistance and I believe there will be a small pullback before potential continuation to the 1.618 Fib Level. The Market Flow indicator is also starting to revert, indicating weakness.
The entry is somewhat conservative since we give the price some more room to continue up before we enter the trade. Opening a position against the trend is rarely a smart idea. The Stop Loss is well above the trendline, which doesn't give us a great RR, but at least we will have more time to assess the price action and potentially close the position if things are not looking too good.
GAS Testing Support Level - Long OrderGAS Testing Support Level - Long Position
Entry: $2.566
TP & RR: $2.673 (2.49)
Stop Loss: $2.523
REASONS FOR THE TRADE
This looks a lot like the infamous " market maker method ", so I am expecting the price to continue trending down even below my entry zone. The logical question is then why are we opening a long trade? Well, if this support holds and I believe it will, even for a short bounce, then the RR is pretty decent if the price reaches the upper trendline. We can then open a short order with a SL just above it.
My SL here is very tight and I do warn you that you may get stopped, so adjust it accordingly. I will use slightly less than my traditional trading size, thus limiting my loss, and be able to re-enter again if the setup turns out to be valid.
NATGAS Update and New Trading SuggestionMidterm forecast:
2.200 is a major support, while this level is not broken, the Midterm wave will be uptrend.
We will close our open trades, if the Midterm level 2.200 is broken.
Technical analysis:
The RSI downtrend #1 is broken, so the probability of continuation of uptrend is increased.
While the RSI uptrend #2 is not broken, bullish wave in price would continue.
A trough is formed in daily chart at 1.640 on 07/20/2020, so more gains to resistance(s) 2.500, 2.700, 2.950 and more heights is expected.
Price is above WEMA21, if price drops more, this line can act as dynamic support against more losses.
Relative strength index (RSI) is 74.
Trade Setup:
We opened 10 BUY trade(s) @ 1.94 based on 'previous Forecast' at 2020.07.29 :
Total Profit: 313 point
Closed trade(s): 109 point Profit
Open trade(s): 204 point Profit
Closed Profit:
TP2 @ 2.00 touched at 2020.08.03 with 6 point Profit.
TP3 @ 2.10 touched at 2020.08.03 with 16 point Profit.
TP4 @ 2.25 touched at 2020.08.04 with 31 point Profit.
TP5 @ 2.50 touched at 2020.08.04 with 56 point Profit.
6 + 16 + 31 + 56 = 109 point
Open Profit:
Profit for one trade is 2.45(current price) - 1.94 (open price) = 51 point
4 trade(s) still open, therefore total profit for open trade(s) is 51 x 4 = 204 point
New Trading suggestion:
. There is still a possibility of temporary retracement to suggested support line (2.330) again. if so, traders can set orders based on Price Action and expect to reach short-term targets.
Take Profits:
TP5= 2.500
TP6= 2.700
TP7= 2.950
TP8= 3.350
TP9= 3.700
TP10= Free
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NATGAS Update and New Trading SuggestionMidterm forecast:
2.200 is a major support, while this level is not broken, the Midterm wave will be uptrend.
We will close our open trades, if the Midterm level 2.200 is broken.
Technical analysis:
The RSI downtrend #1 is broken, so the probability of continuation of uptrend is increased.
While the RSI uptrend #2 is not broken, bullish wave in price would continue.
A trough is formed in daily chart at 1.640 on 07/20/2020, so more gains to resistance(s) 2.500, 2.700, 2.950 and more heights is expected.
Price is above WEMA21, if price drops more, this line can act as dynamic support against more losses.
Relative strength index (RSI) is 74.
Trade Setup:
We opened 10 BUY trade(s) @ 1.94 based on 'previous Forecast' at 2020.07.29 :
Total Profit: 313 point
Closed trade(s): 109 point Profit
Open trade(s): 204 point Profit
Closed Profit:
TP2 @ 2.00 touched at 2020.08.03 with 6 point Profit.
TP3 @ 2.10 touched at 2020.08.03 with 16 point Profit.
TP4 @ 2.25 touched at 2020.08.04 with 31 point Profit.
TP5 @ 2.50 touched at 2020.08.04 with 56 point Profit.
6 + 16 + 31 + 56 = 109 point
Open Profit:
Profit for one trade is 2.45(current price) - 1.94 (open price) = 51 point
4 trade(s) still open, therefore total profit for open trade(s) is 51 x 4 = 204 point
New Trading suggestion:
. There is still a possibility of temporary retracement to suggested support line (2.330) again. if so, traders can set orders based on Price Action and expect to reach short-term targets.
Take Profits:
TP5= 2.500
TP6= 2.700
TP7= 2.950
TP8= 3.350
TP9= 3.700
TP10= Free
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NATGASUSD technically based forecast
📌Short intro:
I am full time trader - analyst * High accuracy of ideas * Technicaly and Fudnamentaly side in analysis * Comment if have any questions or want to send support * Price action - FIBO - Candl pattern * FX - STOCK - CRYPTO * Simple ideas
💡 NATGASUSD technicaly based idea, we can see price is bounce from bottom trend line, candels formation is strong bulish, technicaly indicators showing we can expect higher push up in price exepcting push till top trend line, based on candels foramtion possible and break of top trend line.
📌Have on mind, trading involves risk, check idea on your own tactic, if have questions pls comment!
Thanks on supporting!
All best, good luck!
Natgas bullish divergence, are we reached the bottom?Bullish divergence on daily chart, first target 1.80!!!
NATGASUSD exepcting higher bearish ocntinuation
ENTRY: 1.780
TP: 1.755
TP2: 1.735
TP3: 1.720
SL: 1.805
Chart time frame - 4H
Time for reaching TP - 1-2D
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Natural Gas NatgasOlder Chart with some weekly lines lightened. Heavy resistance from TA previous trendlines/breaks/ moving averages, etc. Watching current range, if I see a nice daily close above first resistance bottom line, I'll add to position. Keeping this simple. Will elaborate the chart later.
NATGASUSD bounced from support, potential for a further rise!
NATGASUSD bounced off 2.450 where it could potentially rise further to 2.660.
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NATURAL GAS AT SUPPORTHey traders,
Natural gas experienced a huge retrace today after forming a higher high in this mini uptrend.
Let's wait and see what price does at S/R before making a decision.
If we get a nice bullish confirmation then I will have a long bias.
