Sell NATGAS into OCT/NOVNatalie has fromed a H&S and has broke through all of the supporting EMAs leading to most of the indicators turning bearish.
My approach for the forseeable is seeling bounces until the winter season approaches.
Of course Natalie is extremely susceptible to trend changes due to economical data and has to be monitored closely. Currenlty I'm a bear.
Only selling once it breaks and retests, where I will once again reasses based on economics such as storage, production, imports and demand.
Target around $2.5 where interestingly a gap (red rectangle) sits from Nov - 24.
Elliot Wave (although not a great fan) kind of aligns as well as the 0.786 fib level which began forming at the beginning of 2024.
Storage | Volatility | Price Outlook
U.S. natural gas markets are stabilizing as volatility trends back toward seasonal norms.
📉 Volatility has dropped from 81% in Q4 2024 to 69% in mid-2025
🏪 Storage is currently at 3,075 Bcf,
🔻 4.7% lower YoY
🔺 5.9% higher than the 5-year average
🚢 LNG exports remain strong—up 22% YoY and 74% above the 5-year average
🔌 Domestic demand is seasonally weaker but steady
➡️ Despite being below last year’s levels, storage surplus vs. the 5-year average acts as a soft ceiling on price.
➡️ Historical analogs suggest a fair value range between $2.50–$3.20/MMBtu in the short term.
📊 Current price action around $3.00–$3.40 looks slightly overheated unless a fresh catalyst emerges (heatwave, export spike, etc.).
🧭 Watching for:
Injection trends over the next few weeks
Cooling demand in power sector
Resistance around $3.40
Support near $2.80
Natural-gas
Crude Oil Spikes - Russia / Ukraine / USA sanction? Concerns about the possibility of tighter global oil supplies are supporting crude prices after President Trump warned of "secondary sanctions" if Russia fails to reach a ceasefire in Ukraine within 10 to 12 days.
These sanctions have absolutely burned the shorts in oil and can cause a 3 bar surge on the daily chart if crude breaks this channel.
Keep you eye on the daily 200 MA...if it holds above we should push higher on crude.
FOMC RATE DECISION TOMORROW - Tune into our live stream.
Navigating a Pullback in Natural GasNatural gas prices have been on a wild ride lately, with a recent pullback raising questions about the future of this energy source. This video provides insights into navigating this market volatility, offering actionable strategies for live trading in the midst of uncertainty.
Current weather forecasts for the U.S. show neither extreme heat nor cold—limiting heating or cooling demand. This typical spring-to-summer lull supports low prices .
Although rig counts in the U.S. are falling—the latest count shows an 8‑week decline—production remains ample. Storage levels remain healthy, and oversupply worries persist .
Natural gas rallied earlier today but faced resistance at the $4/mmBtu mark—a major psychological barrier. After hitting that ceiling, prices gave back gains, a typical sign of "rally exhaustion"
NATGAS REBOUND AHEAD|LONG|
✅NATGAS is approaching a demand level around 3.00$
So according to our strategy
We will be looking for the signs of the reversal in the trend
To jump onto the bearish bandwagon just on time to get the best
Risk reward ratio for us
LONG🚀
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Will the Perfect Storm in Natural Gas Markets Lead to a New EnerIn an era of unprecedented global energy transformation, the natural gas market stands at a critical juncture where geopolitical tensions, technological advancement, and infrastructure development converge to create a potentially game-changing scenario. The ongoing Middle East crisis, particularly the Israel-Iran tensions threatening the Strait of Hormuz, could reshape energy flows and trigger a cascade of effects across interconnected global energy markets, potentially forcing a fundamental reassessment of natural gas's role in the global energy mix.
A seismic shift is approaching in North American markets with LNG Canada's anticipated 2025 launch, which promises to revolutionize Canadian gas pricing dynamics and global market access. This transformation coincides with an extraordinary surge in potential demand from AI and data centers, projected to consume between 3 and 30 billion cubic feet per day of additional North American gas. Such technological evolution, coupled with Asia's growing appetite for cleaner energy sources, suggests a structural reformation of traditional gas flow patterns and pricing mechanisms.
The convergence of these factors presents both challenges and opportunities for market participants. While weather patterns and storage dynamics continue to influence short-term price formation, longer-term strategic considerations are increasingly dominated by infrastructure development, market access, and geopolitical risk management. As the industry adapts through strategic hedging, infrastructure investment, and consolidation, the natural gas market appears poised for a period of dynamic evolution that could fundamentally alter its global value proposition and establish a new paradigm in energy markets.
UNG to $60 ...... is the idea...... UNG is the way to play Nat Gas.
Nat Gas traders fir under production costs at $6.5 to $7.5 per BTU - UNG at $6.5 per BTU will trade above $60
Nat Gas is cyclical, it moves in 4 year intervals, perfect to start the move Up now.
Please research my findings.
Cyclicality of the NAt Gas Market
Nat Gas is industry's energy
Nat Gas is the cleanest form of fossil fuel energy.
Nat Gas goes for $67 per BTU in Europe, the USA needs to be selling Nat Gas.
Many other positive things about NAT GAS and its required expansion.
We need Nat Gas and plenty of it.
NATTY down for a breather NATTY is extremely overextended and finds itself on the 0.5 Fib retracement after accumulating a substantial bearish divergence on the 4hr.
After breaking out of the cup & handle, it has yet retested those areas which it will IMHO.
NATTY often peaks in the middle of May which is often followed my strong consolidation into May, before it really gets going in June/July.
✅NATGAS SHORT FROM RESISTANCE🔥
✅NATGAS made a massive
Gap up from the support
But after the gap the price
Immediately hit a horizontal
Resistance level of 2.00$
From where we are already
Seeing a bearish reaction
And I think that we will see
A further move down next week
SHORT🔥
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NATURAL GAS Breakdown OpportunityHi!
NATGAS is pretty bearish, reading about a warm December, at least in the US, and overproduction. (reading headlines at naturalgasintel.com).
So, I'm expecting price to break down at the test of this trendline, which could be a good opportunity to SHORT on this one.
Have a great week ahead, and please comment if you have something good to add.
Best Regards,
ThomChris
NATTY 15% Correction on the way?Natural Gas has recorded a negative bearish divergence on the 4hr which I believe is the sign of a correction to retest the green base below.
It had fired on all of it's cylinders yesterday which I believe was a dead cat bounce removing as many short sellers as possible.
Shorting this time of year usually means commission from your broker - mine is offering 3% of my total investment.
+90% Natural GasIs natural gas a good stock to buy?
When investing in natural gas stocks, it is important to look for companies with good financial stability, and a strong history of profitability. Natural gas stocks can be a good investment for stock market investors. This is because natural gas prices are expected to continue to rise in the future.
Natural gas will go higher!So, we are back with another trend analysis and new support/resistance levels.
We have had a major pullback from our latest resistance level of 3 back to around 2.8~. Which is fine, its natural.
But I still strongly believe in a major bull run and upside in natural gas, which is why I believe we have to go higher, and we will in the last 2 quarters of 2023.
We have resistance level around 3.3~ - this was tested back in October/November 2020 and most recent around January 2023. This is my first target price (TP 1).
What happens after this is hard to guess at this point of time.
Will we have another energy crisis? What about the war in Ukraine and Russia? My best guess is that we will go higher after reaching 3.3 – but only time will tell.
Let me know what you guys think!
Good luck!
Natural Gas - BullishWith the current clima, demand for natural gas for AC-cooling, there is a good foundation for a bullish move in Natural Gas.
1. Lets see a move upwards to the 2.8
2. Maybe a slight pullback
3. And then the big move towards the 3-3.05 level
Also bakced by the fact that Buffet have bought into LNG so lets see if the trend can hold.
Good lucK!
Natural Gas - KeyLevels for next WeekIf you wanna take a trade on NATURAL GAS, maybe before that, you need to conisder this KeyLevels of support and resistance areas.
Careful with shorts until on daily is bullish / upptrend + August and september is coming , when de big companies refreshes their stocks for the winter
Natural Gas Critical LevelsNatural gas, which fell sharply from $ 6.5 to $2 is trying to recover again.
During this process, critical levels were determined. These levels appear at $2.10, $3.50 and $5.50.
As long as it does not fall below the $2.10 level, I can say that the $3.50 targeted buying opportunity in natural gas continues.
Where is NATTY going next?Huge sell of occurred after breaking it's previous support, turned resistance.
I'd be looking to buy of the resistance @ around 2.050 with the aim of it reaching the broken support.
If it finds resistance there then we might see a H&S pattern emerge which could be severely bloody.
With recession peaking over the corner, this could well play out.
Just my thoughts, not trading advice . Trade at your own risk. NATTY can be expensive .