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NG: UGAZ: Natural Gas Consolidating Lower. Demand Improving.NG Natural Gas July futures contract continues declining on recent lower demand. Fundamentals are still bearish: low LNG exports, 4 Bcd vs 9 Bcd in the winter, and cooler weather over North East. The temperature is expected go higher on June 25-28, per NatGasWeather. With economy reopening on June 20-21, EIA weekly report may turn bullish in the 1st week of July. The chart is oversold; buyers are coming in at $1.60 level. Last week build was 93 bcf. A build below 90 bcf would be a bullish sign. A short-covering rally may happen soon in anticipation of improving demand. Lower prices are still possible, if LNG exports do not improve, or weather does not prove to be hot enough. Yet, reopening of the economy should boost demand significantly moving into July.
NYMEX:NG1!
by tradexchart
NG: Natural Gas Further ConsolidationNatural Gas NG July futures bounced last week on warmer weather and production cuts. On Friday we saw a pullback, as weather forecasts lost some CDDs (cooling degree days). UNG fund started August contract roll on June 12 -17. Technicals: Daily and 4 Hr chart are pointing toward lower prices; 1 Hr chart is forming a bottom. We may have a short-term bounce from lower levels, but overall direction is pointing toward lower prices, or consolidation. Fundamentals: demand/supply balance remains bearish in the near-term; prolonged heat is required to produce a rally in prices, although the number of rigs has declined by 7. Second half of June was expected to be hotter per last week's forecast, but on Friday, weather pattern turned cooler, with lower demand for cooling. Until the next heat wave emerges, we may be facing lower prices. Crude oil prices are declining due to high inventories build and worries about slow economic recovery, adding to the bearish picture. On the positive note, economy is reopening in higher consumption states, NY, NJ, and PA on June 20th. Weekly EIA report capturing this period may show higher consumption two weeks from now. Until then, a strong prolonged heat wave is required to change current bearish price pattern.
NYMEX:NG1!
by tradexchart
UGAZ: NG Demand Rising. Positive Divergence?Natural gas demand is rising due to electric power sector demand increase. Total U.S. consumption of natural gas rose by 3.9% compared with the previous report week. Natural gas consumed for power generation climbed by 10.1% week over week. In the residential and commercial sectors, consumption declined by 5.9%. Industrial sector consumption decreased by 0.3% week over week. Natural gas exports to Mexico increased 4.8%. (Data from EIA report, last week). Technicals are showing a positive divergence between momentum and price; MACD is showing higher bottoms (coiling) while NG prices continue to consolidate. A potential for a break to the upside? Waiting for Thursday EIA report. This week residential demand is continuing to rise because of hot weather. Industrial sector is also picking up due to reopening. Hurricane reduced production by 1 bcf, although produced delays with LNG exports. Fundamentals are turning bullish, although we are still oversupplied. May need another 2 weeks of growing demand to overcome high storage build.
NYMEX:NGN2020
by tradexchart
UGAZ: NG Natural Gas Getting Ready For A Move Up?Chart patterns are suggesting a reversal to the upside, possibly targeting $18-$24 levels for UGAZ, as NG prices are expected to go higher into the summer heat and economy reopening by 3rd week of June in NY, NJ, PA. We may have another a couple of days of consolidation with lower prices due to bearish EIA report on Thursday. Expecting over 100 bcf in storage. However, rising demand is on the horizon. NG price targets are: $1.8; $1.93, $2.048. UGAZ, being ETN, may not reach its recent highs in the 30s. However, it is expected to get into mid 20s, with resistance at around $26 price level.
U
by tradexchart
5
NG: Natural Gas: UGAZ: Getting Ready For A Move Up?NG: Potential bottom is forming at $1.78 level. Natural Gas July futures contracts were trading lower on Tuesday finding support at $1.78. MACD histogram is at the crossing point pointing toward higher prices. Near-term resistance is seen near $1.978, a 38.2% Fib retracement level of the recent move down, with $2.048 being a 50% Fib retracement. RSI is also forming a bottoming pattern pointing toward higher levels. Further consolidation is possible until we have a bullish EIA report showing decline in storage. Thursday EIA report is still expected to show a triple digit build above 100 bcf, which is bearish, but a decline in storage is expected to show next week, as consumption is rising. Fundamentals are improving, based on June hot weather and economy reopening by 3rd week of June. This week could be a turning point for natural gas. A longer-term bearish factor for natural gas is a potential increase in oil production. As crude oil prices are moving higher, shale producers may ramp up their production, which in turn may lead to another cycle of oversupply for both commodities. In general, NG prices are expected to go higher from here, reaching toward $2.5 level by year end (based on forward curve), which is 40% lower than prior year, as high supply may keep a lid on the rally. However, if we are going to get extreme heat this summer, $2.5 price level may be reached sooner, possibly moving into a month of August.
NYMEX:NGN2020
by tradexchart
Tesla Still a SHORT, But Barely: Stability at last?Tesla ($TSLA) double-failed two resistance marks at 820 and 807. The former of these really seems to be a short-term upper limit for $TSLA. Nearly each time it tests @ 820, it proceeds to have a variation of failure: The short on this is not wildly profitable, though absolutely still in play. $TSLA has shown promise enough, absolutely, but the bears seem to be right in some respects that this is a stock with a ceiling that Elon Musk himself has already alluded to. Takeaway:::: If shorting TSLA, expect a very minimal gain. It is showing the first signs of stability in months, with that 820 resistance mark proving to be a real cap for Tesla in general. A potential dip to the previously cited trough @ 750-765 is not inconceivable, but this is now a pretty low risk short for the most part.
NASDAQ:TSLAShort
by BDRTrigger33
NG: Natural Gas retracing into Fib levels, looking for supportNatural Gas NG July futures contract gapped up to $1.93, but quickly retraced to $1.915 level, which is 50% Fib level of its recent run. Prices are going lower into Thursday EIA report, as SP Global Platt reported decline in demand. Fib levels that may serve as support: $1.195 - 0.5; $1.900 - 0.382; $1.881 - 0.236; $1.85 - 0. Currently stabilizing at $1.90. Both MACD and RSI charts are pointing toward lower prices. Investors seem to be sensitive to low demand. We have a gap underneath at $1.76 level and major support at $1.70. Deep retracement into those levels is unlikely at this time.
NYMEX:NGN2020Short
by tradexchart
NG: Natural Gas futures gapped up switching to July contractNG: Natural Gas futures NG switched to July contract on May 26 at 18 p.m. gapping up to $1.93. Based on 4 Hr chart, resistance of $2.0 has not been reached yet indicating potential to go higher. MACD crossed pointing toward higher prices as well. RSI is at 60, which has been the level that capped the most recent rally at $2.0 (May 18 -22). Chande momentum is forming a "megaphone" pattern indicating some potential to go higher in the near-term. UGAZ: Traded flat at $17.30 during NG gap up to $1.93. If $1.93 NG price is sustained overnight, expecting a gap up on the open for UGAZ, possibly up to $19-20 level.
NYMEX:NGN2020
by tradexchart
$UGAZ: Natural Gas NG needs to break through $1.8 to go higherNatural Gas NG has moved higher in Tuesday trading session. Short-term resistance is seen at $1.8, support at $1.76. UGAZ trading between $15.70 and $17.70, with $16.65 being important level to stay above. NG needs to break through $1.8 to challenge its next resistance level at $2.0. With fundamentals turning bullish, it is a possible target. $UGAZ: next upside targets remain $20 and $23 levels, even if a pull back. Technicals: currently overbought on 30 min, 1 Hr time frames. 4 Hr chart is also near recent resistance levels, but may consolidate there in the near-term.
UShort
by tradexchart
$UGAZ: Natural Gas NG Potential for Upside Within ConsolidationNatural Gas June futures contract continues consolidating within a narrow range: $1.68 - $1.76. A potential for a move higher is seen in the near-term. UGAZ: Based on 1 Hr chart pattern and Chande Momentum indicator, an upside move can be expected within May 26 - 27 timeframe; $20 is seen as first upside target, $22-23 level as resistance, while $15.30 is seen as support. A break below could lead to $14 handle. Multiple consecutive green bars observed between May 22 and May 26 on UGAZ chart, are indicative of potential bottoming out. On Balance Volume (OBV) kept moving lower for both UGAZ and NG throughout May, approaching a potential bottom, with RSI momentum turning higher on 4 Hr chart. This could be a technical sign of reversal. However, NG trading range is narrow with main support at $1.60 and main resistance at $2.0. This trading range may continue in the near-term. June contract settles on May 27th, with last position on May 28th. Higher priced July contract continues after that through June 26th (its settlement). Demand is picking up, although gradually, and still under oversupplied conditions. Based on fundamentals, the overall direction of NG futures is expected to go higher from here, with consolidation to continue into early June. NG forward curve as well as seasonal demand are both pointing toward higher prices. A choppy pattern may continue until we get a forecast for a heat wave to kick off high cooling demand season.
UShort
by tradexchart
Bombed out Natural Gas Play1. Compare the chart to the Wall Street Cheat Sheet and looks like we're in the Depression phase. Quiet on Twitter and bitter sentiment on LSE/ADVFN, nice contrarian signals and not a crowded trade. 2. POC at 1.4p. Sharp capitulation from January to Mid-March where RSI hit 18 and has recovered slightly. 3. Upcoming catalysts: OGA 32nd Offshore Licensing results expected by end of June 2020. Look at JOG SP reaction from last July. Selene drilling decision and Pensacola well investment decision could drop this year or early next year (both partnered with Shell). Dewar farm-out pending but likely to be delayed for the foreseeable given COVID. 4. ATOW valued at £10.2m, Allenby estimate £12m net cash by end of 2020. Fundraise completed last year, expected to see them through to end of 2021. 5. Broker targets: always take with a pinch of salt, but ultimately these get bandied about by rampers --Allenby re-confirmed in January 2020 a target of 8.3p and 16.7p (based on success for Selene, Pensacola and Dewar (assuming a 50% farm-out of Dewar). 6. "Read-across": ECO investors will know that the SP does react to success in neighbouring acreages (e.g. Guyana) and this could happen re Pensacola given the Darach Central-1 discovery in late 2019.
CLong
by AttilaTheKiller
$UGAZ: Natural Gas NG Bottoming Pattern; Unfilled Gap. Potential bottoming patterns are seen on multiple time frames of natural gas contracts. June Natural Gas contract and Chande Momentum charts show higher lows. NG: However, NG June contract chart is pointing lower due to fundamental factors - economic shutdown and overall reduced demand. If prices hold support at $1.70 on Friday into closing, that would be an encouraging sign for the next week. Otherwise, a correction is possible. From technical standpoint, there is an unfilled gap from Sunday May 17th, up from $1.63 to $1.70 on the open. This gap maybe getting filled in the near-term. UGAZ: Corresponding gap up from May 17th has been filled. However, if NG prices are going lower, possibly toward $1.62-$1.60 support, UGAZ may fall temporarily into $12-$14 range. Otherwise, $15-$16 seems to serve as near-term support.
UShort
by tradexchart
$UGAZ: Natural Gas NG is Waiting for June HeatNatural gas futures contracts NG finished the day lower after EIA inventory report showed a less than expected build of 81 bcf vs 98 bcf predicted. Regardless of a substantially lower build, NG prices dropped 3.3% on Thursday. Short-term momentum turned negative, while medium term momentum is neutral pointing toward consolidation and possibly lower prices. The chart is slightly below 50% retracement of its recent move up, between $1.60 and $1.89. It is the middle of the range. A move in either direction is possible from here. Near-term resistance is seen at $1.75, level of prior support. Major support levels remain $1.70 and $1.60. UGAZ is trading within a range, between $15 and $16, as long as NG holds support at $1.70. Lower prices are possible; more consolidation seems likely before we go higher. The weather is expected to stay within a comfortable range between 60 and 80 degrees, with some heat up to 90 degrees in the Southwest. However, May is considered a shoulder month, when little additional demand is generated at these temperatures. The economy is reopening slowly, with demand growth expected to improve in June, when we switch to trading July contract.
U
by tradexchart
$UGAZ: Natural Gas NG is Looking for DirectionNatural Gas July futures NG gapped up on the open from $1.63 to $1.75, but then dropped to $1.71. 2 Hr MACD chart crossed forming some sort of consolidation zone. NG is trading higher July contracts. The fundamentals remain bearish: oversupplied condition vs. low demand. For the next two weeks, the weather is not expected to be hot enough to generate substantial demand. Although, the economy is re-opening, we may remain in oversupplied territory at least until June. The US natural gas rig count fell only by 1 (EIA), meaning production is still high. UGAZ: A divergence between price and momentum has been observed on the 2 Hr chart, pointing toward near-term higher prices, or consolidation. RSI is in oversold territory. A near-term resistance for UGAZ is seen at $19-$21 level. NG showed nearest resistance at $1.75. If we can break through this level, then the price can go higher toward $1.8-$2.0. That may bring UGAZ to $25-$27 level, if natural gas prices rebound sharply during this week. Otherwise, lower levels should be expected. If NG stays low for the next 2-3 weeks, UGAZ may drift down into $8-$12 range. The pattern emerging on NG 4 hr chart is reminiscent of the consolidation period between 3/16 and 3/30. New lows are still possible before we go higher. As we are approaching a high cooling demand summer period and re-opening of the economy, natural gas demand is expected to rise, although, gradually. Without sharp rise in demand, or sharp decline in supply, NG prices will remain capped.
U
by tradexchart
1
UGAZ: Bounced, But Still Forming a BottomNG: Natural Gas June futures rallied on Thursday into EIA report, which showed in-line storage build of $103 bcf. Natural gas stocks were 799 bcf higher than this time last year. The fundamentals remain on the bearish side with low consumption and warming weather. However, the economy is reopening, which is a bullish factor. NG chart dipped after reaching nearest resistance at $1.7 level, still within existing downward trend. Short-term support was found at $1.66. The chart appears to be forming a bottom, bouncing off oversold condition observed earlier on 4 Hr chart. Short-term momentum is positive, medium-term momentum is negative pointing toward consolidation, or lower prices. Support is seen at $1.6, resistance at $1.85. UGAZ: Based on Daily charts MACD, Chande Momentum, and CCI, a definitive bottom has not been formed yet. No divergences between momentum and price, similar to the pattern observed in late March, have been observed at this time. However, 4 Hr RSI chart (not listed here) showed a bottoming pattern at $1.6 NG level. For UGAZ, a level around $16 may hold as support, as long as NG price stays above $1.65 level. Otherwise, $15 handle may correspond to $1.6 level on NG chart.
UShort
by tradexchart
1
UGAZ: Still Looking for a Bottom - UpdateNatural gas futures contracts NG has drifted lower on Wednesday reaching $1.6 with corresponding UGAZ price at $15.27. The NG chart moved a little higher from there trying to establish a bottom. Should we not hold $1.6 level, the next possible level of support is $1.5. In that case, UGAZ may go lower toward $13 handle. Near-term resistance is seen at $1.8 and $1.87. Short term momentum is negative. The fundamentals are still bearish ahead of EIA report, as total consumption per day is expected to decline by 3.9% from 2019 average. Thursday report - 103 bcf build is expected.
UShort
by tradexchart
UGAZ: Looking for a Bottom? Natural gas futures contracts moved lower this week on low demand due to ongoing COVID lockdowns and warming weather. Support seen earlier at $1.72, has been broken. Next possible levels of support are $1.6 and $1.5. Another triple digit injection of around 104 bcf is expected on Thursday (EIA report). Supply-Demand deficit is expected to narrow: April -6.64 bcf/d; May -0.3 bcf/d; June - 1.99 bcf/d. Consumption growth is projected to keep slowing down: April +7.7%; May +0.3%; Jun +0.05% YoY (BlueGold Research). Supply is still stronger than demand in the near-term, unless companies will start filing bankruptcies. MACD crossover for UGAZ on 2 Hr chart is pointing toward lower prices. If NG prices are to drop to $1.5, a bottoming pattern for UGAZ may form this week at around $17 -$15 levels. NG futures are oversold on 4 Hr chart, but may continue sliding on a daily chart. We may see a recovery after Thursday EIA report, once all the news is priced in.
UShort
by tradexchart
Weekly Chart on Natural Gas (NG) by ThinkingAntsOkUse this as a guide to develop your view of the situation. Main items we can see on the Weekly Chart: a) Take a look at the 2 previous descending trendlines (white) in the past b) Observe how in both of them the price broke the descending trendline and after that, a corrective movement came c) That corrective movement took about 3 to 5 weeks to be ready d) After that, the beginning of a huge bullish movement started again e) Currently, we think we are in the phase where the price is breaking the descending trendline, now we have to wait for more candlesticks to come before setting orders.
NYMEX:NG1!
by ThinkingAntsOk
WTI Mid-Term Technical Analysis - Potential and Risk Here is a more in depth analysis of yesterday's published idea. WTI has appeared to have confirmed a new bottom with the EMI after closing repeatedly above bottom support (scripting thanks to @bonic) signaling a heavy buy signal on the weekly and monthly charts. We have to manage risk here. I have place a strong watch on the bottom uptrend support around 1.8 up to potentially 2.5 and so on. Stop loss should be used accordingly how low depending on how much you are willing to risk. Though that should be pretty clear if you stay up to date on analysis. immediate resistance but according to EMI appears likely to break through both 2.37-.39 and 2.55-6 resistance lines. If it fails to do so you may consider selling to play safe. Read the charts. bounce off long term support same bounce with a more current date range
NYSE:WTI
by CryptoStockCoin52