Channel The Gas!*DISCLAIMER*-This is WEEKLY Chart- Not advisable to trade without an proper analysis. Not my fault if you traded and made a loss.
It is not like trading on M15 or H4, ONE Candlestick is actually 1 week so it is long term trade. I will explain how to better catch the trade at correct level with no risk.
The Natural Gas is in Channel, there has been multiple bounces on inside of channel trends.
Price is approaching to support since 29th February 2019 where price has made the lowest low.
There are support level where the 1st buy will be if price doesn't make it all the way to channel trendline likely in most case it will come short and go up.
Lots of wicks incites that price has breaking out moment so breakouts can occurs at any time.
Look for candlestick patterns like 3 Advancing Soldiers or Hikkake Pattern for an proper buying confimation BUT...
If price has broken the support, it will be likely to bounce off channel trendline with candlestick pattern like Hammer, Bullish Harami, Morning (Doji) Stars Patterns and Long Lower Shadow.
Please Google those candlestick pattern so you know what to look for once price are near to the key level for you to buy and hold over the weeks holding until the target is reached of around 3.0 - 4.5.
This is just an idea, i will be following this and updating the progress as week goes by.
Natural
Apr 6 - A Short Look Ahead for Oil/UCOPrice is ranging right now within the green box. Support looks like it should hold. There may be larger powers at be that do not want crude to fall back below $25.
Decent bounce off $2.50 support. I think it's safe to assume it'll hold for now.
$2.78 resistance needs to break in order to continue trend upwards.
Ultimately depends on the outcome of the OPEC meeting on the 9th. I believe they'll come up with a solution. It's either they do, or most of the economies around the world go into (deeper) failure.
Massive Support zone on NATGAS by ThinkingAntsOkUse this as a guide to develop your view of the chart
Main items we can see on the Monthly Chart:
a) There is a massive Support zone between 1,6 - 1,2
b) This Support has been working since 1992
c) Currently, the price is on 1,6 / The first contact with the support zone
d) We think the price will make reversal structures before starting the bullish movement
e) This Monthly chart provides us with an idea of a bullish potential of 120% towards the next Resistance zone at 3,7
Inflation wont get bad for a year or soThis is based on the idea of a trend reversal on the weekly. energy prices have crashed and now they will slowly recover. No saying what the top is but the system is pumped full of money. There is going to be big inflation sooner or later and this can help give some sort of timeline,.
Natural Gas Down -3.5% Falling from Week HighsHeadlines:
• Crude Futures Plummet on Growing Concerns About Coronavirus and its Global Spread
• US Indexes Take Hit as Global Risk-Off Play’s Out With all Indexes Down -3%
• Saudi Aramco Gets Approval for Development of the Al-Jafoura Field
• Natural Gas down more than -3.5% falling from week highs
Conservative Line and Big Risk/ Return Line Hit, Whats Next?Surpassing conservative and taking bigger profits as indicated in the graph, that leads us to a reassessment of the next big move to come. First of all congratulations to those who took some short term gains from the previous analysis I provided. Lets agree that sometimes we make calculated risk and some luck is involve. Learning to trade on a fine balance between graphical and sentiment values are key to becoming a somewhat successful trader.
Analysis Natural Gas:
Price started off lower in the reopening of the market, due to some warmer weather spikes up in the North eastern region of the USA lowered demand in Natural gases, no new declaration of bankruptcies in the supply sector.
Graphical Sentiment:
Downtrend in Short Term trades (4-6hrs) is still a strong Put, likely to hit the 1.850 Region before a slight rally to hit this evening towards the 1.930 mark.
Geopolitical Sentiment:
Trump is yet to make his appearance in India, that could overhaul the prices of Natural Gas in a big price shift (upwards), likely to take place over the next 2 to 3 days.
For Swing Traders:
3-5days Position Long holding could see some serious movement in prices: Recommended trade position: Hold a Long position for big price hike likely to mature by end of the week.
Target 1.990 (Conservative) 2.050 (Big Risk Big Return Line)
For day traders:
Target 1.850 ( Conservative Line) 1.790 (Big risk Big Return Line) SELL POSITION/ SHORT by 9pm EASTERN TIME.
Natural Gas +7% + NOC Reports Further Drops in Daily ProductionHeadlines:
• Daily Production Continues to Fall Amid Further Tensions at Tripoli Port
• Covid-19 Daily Infection Rate Drops Bringing Hope to China
• US Markets Finish Majority Lower as Effects of Virus Trickle into Production Data
• Natural Gas Futures Continue its Run into the Week up 7% for the day
RBOB Gasoline Futures Sitting at Important 1.5900-1.6000 ZoneHeadlines
• RBOB Gasoline Futures Sitting at Important 1.5900-1.6000 Zone
• Natural Gas Surges on Open Gapping Up +3%
• Japan Releases Disappointing GDP (-1.6%) for the Quarter Seeing Japanese Indexes Drop
• US Set to Observe Presidents Day Holiday During Monday
Natural Gas Futures Gap -3% Lower During Monday Asian OpenHeadlines:
- Natural Gas Futures gap lower seeing them drop below 1.800 level for the first time since 2016
- COT report shows build in Short NYMEX Light Crude Oil Non-Commercial positions for week
- Asian Equities Down as fear is still present within Investor Sentiment
- China Releases Unexpected Increase in Inflation Data for the Month of December
Top and Bottom analysis on Natural Gas (NG) by ThinkingAntsOkUse this as a guide to develop your view on the Chart.
Main Items we can see on the 4hs Chart:
a)After the breakout of the Massive corrective structure, we saw the beginning of a new bearish motive wave
b)Our main target for the end of the bearish trend is the Daily Support zone at 1.650
c)The main structure for the down move is a descending channel, is very important to pay attention to it and see if the price keeps respecting it.
d)If you have a short position opened the support zone can be an excellent target
e)If you want to open Long positions, wait for the price to reach the support zone, and give at least one week to see a formation there.
Daily Chart
NatGas - bull or bear?The last few candles show a sustained sell-off followed by a brief recovery below the short term trend line (white dotted line).
Will natural gas follow the end of day recovery and go back over $2?
I see 2 scenarios here:
1) The price closes over $2.03 on Monday and tests $2.15 this week
2) The price breaches $1.84 and starts a new descending channel between $1.68 and $2.02
My long term trend line (red dashed line) suggests $1.34 is possible, which boggles my mind, but anything is possible if inventories continue to build and our winters continue to be mild on average.
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My goal is to keep tabs on Natural Gas Futures to hopefully find the bottom before a bullish reversal. However, I am not currently playing NatGas as I believe it will stay suppressed until production is shown to have meaningful decreases. Fracking bans, regulations, etc can impact prices but I don't have a crystal ball and will simply follow the market as it happens.
*** Note: I draw my trend lines on a daily line chart as line charts are easier to see then switch to candles since candles illustrate the price action much clearer. A few pennies here and there don't concern me as I am a swing trader.
NATURAL GAS HEAD AND SHOULDERS??GOOD EVENING, HERE IS A POTENTIAL PAN OUT FOR NATURAL GAS. CURRENTLY AT NECKLINE OF WHAT COULD BE A COMPLETED HEAD AND SHOULDERS PATTERN, RIGHT SHOULDER JUST NEEDS TO DEVELOP! PRICE IS CURRENTLY AT A KEY SUPPLY/DEMAND ZONE AND A NICE REJECTION CANDLE ON LAST DAY, EXTREMELY GOOD RR IF THIS WAS TO COME IN BUT EVEN HALF THIS TARGET WOULD BE GREAT. THE MOVE WILL MOST LIKELY BE VERY IMPULSIVE AND TAKE A FEW WEEKS TO CLIMB TO TOP IF DOES GO THIS WAY.
I WOULD HIGHLY RECOMMEND HAVING A LOOK AT @MESZAROS & @RANDYFUEGO NATURAL GAS PUBLICATIONS FOR A MORE DETAILED PERSPECTIVE, LINK AT BOTTOM.
Analysis of Current situation on NATURAL GAS by ThinkingAntsOkUse this as a guide to develop your personal view of the chart.
Main items we observe on the Daily Timeframe:
a)Price Broke the ascending channel and the major Support/Resistance zone
b)Currently, the price is inside a Flag pattern on an ABC pattern with a clear structure (yellow lines)
c)These types of patterns are considered continuation structures (meaning that, from a technical perspective, when these structures are broken the price should continue on the same direction of the previous motive wave)
d)IF the price brakes below the lower trendline of the corrective structure we will look for a pull-back on a lower timeframe such as 4hs/1h and we will set our short orders (Entry below the 4h/1h structure, stop above it, and take profit on the lower support zone visible on the chart)
e)It is really important to have patience and wait for a proper confirmation before setting orders, your worst scenario should be NOT ENTERING THE MARKET.
Weekly Vision:
Natural Gas: Lower Buy opportunity.NG is forming a Channel Up on 1W (RSI = 51.784, MACD = -0.011, ADX = 20.925, Highs/Lows = 0.0155) and is approaching the Demand Zone for a Higher Low. The 1D MACD shows that there is still some room to it, so be ready to buy lower (ideally well below the 1D MA50 once the Golden Cross takes place). Our Target Zone is 2.785 - 2.860.
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