Natural Gas on the Move! Is the Next Big Breakout Coming? 📈 Bullish Analysis: Natural Gas (Spot)
1️⃣ Uptrend Support Holding Firm:
The price is respecting the uptrend support line, which has acted as a strong foundation for bullish momentum. Multiple bounces off this level signal that buyers are stepping in to defend the trend.
2️⃣ Supply Zone in Focus:
The supply zone between 4.4 and 4.48 represents a key resistance area. A break and close above this zone would confirm the continuation of the bullish trend.
3️⃣ RSI Rebound:
The RSI is bouncing off oversold levels and turning upward, indicating renewed bullish momentum. This aligns with the trendline support, suggesting the potential for further upside.
4️⃣ Key Insights:
Natural Gas has formed a clean technical setup, with the trendline support, supply zone, and RSI alignment all pointing toward a bullish reversal.
If the price holds above 3.88 and momentum continues, buyers could push toward the supply zone targets.
🎯 Strategy:
Entry: Current levels near 3.88–3.92.
TP1: 4.00 (First Resistance)
TP2: 4.18 (Midpoint).
TP3: 4.40 (Beginning of Supply Zone).
Natural Gas
Natural Gas Bullish OpportunityWhy the Bullish Sentiment?
🌬 Cold Weather Incoming: Frigid forecasts are set to spike heating demand, boosting natural gas consumption.
🌍 Global LNG Demand: International markets, particularly Europe and Asia, are tightening the supply, fueling upward pressure.
📉 Lower Storage Levels: US inventories are running below the 5-year average, creating a potential supply crunch.
⚠️ Geopolitical Tensions: Supply concerns in Europe continue to drive bullish sentiment, making natural gas an attractive play.
With all these factors aligning, the stage is set for a potential rally! 📈
Entry: 3.40 USD.
Take Profit Levels:
🎯 Take Profit 1: 3.49 USD
🎯 Take Profit 2: 3.61 USD
🏆 Take Profit 3: 3.81 USD
Stop Loss: Set your safety net at 3.25 USD, just below the support level. 🛡
Where do you think Natural Gas will go?
Natural Gas Futures (4H) - ABCD Pattern Analysis and PRZ Levels"In this analysis of Natural Gas Futures (4H timeframe), we identify a bullish ABCD pattern that projects a Potential Reversal Zone (PRZ) around 394.5-395. Key highlights include:
ABCD Pattern: The 1.618 Fibonacci extension from the BC leg aligns with the PRZ.
Current Price Action: Natural Gas is trading around 368.6, indicating a strong upward momentum.
Key Levels:
Resistance at 394.5 (PRZ zone).
Support levels marked at 365.2, 364.3, and 361.5.
Strategy Insight:
Traders may look for potential shorting opportunities at the PRZ (394.5) with confirmations.
Alternatively, breakouts above 394.5 could indicate further bullish movement toward 400+ levels.
This setup is ideal for monitoring reversal or continuation scenarios. Keep an eye on volume and momentum indicators for better confirmation."
NATURAL GAS Long-term buy on the next pull-back.Natural Gas (NG1!) broke this month above its 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) for the first time in two years (last January 2023). Naturally this is a very bullish signal for the long-term and it is more effectively put into context by using our infamous 'Multi-year Cycles', which we introduced on Natural Gas a few years back.
As you can see, every time NG broke above the 1W MA200 after a Support Zone rebound since 1990, it pulled back towards the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) before resuming the uptrend for a new High.
As a result, we will wait for that right pull-back opportunity to buy and target at least 6.000, which should be achieved by December 2026, which is the Top of the Sine Waves Cycle.
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Natural Gas Short: Testing the $4 Barrier – Opportunity Knocks!Natural Gas (XNG/USD) has spiked to revisit the $4 price zone, activating my short trade. This marks the second time in two years that the price has reached this significant resistance area. The $4 level is pivotal, serving as a key psychological barrier and a historic zone of strong price action. With the position now live, I am leveraging the resistance for a retracement opportunity.
Fundamentals:
• Weather and Seasonal Demand: Short-term spikes in demand are driven by cold weather in the U.S., but with futures traders starting to focus on spring, we may see waning bullish momentum in the coming weeks.
• Russian Gas Supply Constraints: Limited Russian gas flows to the EU continue to add uncertainty to the market, but the current rally seems to be pricing in short-term factors rather than long-term structural changes.
• Historical Levels: The $4 spot price has attracted significant attention as a resistance zone, with $3.40 acting as a key support in recent months. The bounce from this level earlier this year highlights its importance.
• Market Behavior: Futures traders’ sentiment and seasonality are critical drivers. As winter progresses, reduced speculative demand may favor a bearish pullback.
Technicals:
• Entry: $4.00 (Resistance Zone)
• Target: $2.60 - 2.70
• Partials: From $3,19
• Stop Loss: $4.40 (Above Recent Highs)
• Timeframe: 12H
This short trade aligns with technical, fundamental, and seasonal narratives. As the price has shown rejection at this zone, I will actively monitor for a breakdown toward the $3.40 level while managing risk prudently. Stay disciplined, follow your trading plan, and remember to pay yourself as the market unfolds.
Note: Please remember to adjust this trade idea according to your individual trading conditions, including position size, broker-specific price variations, and any relevant external factors. Every trader’s situation is unique, so it’s crucial to tailor your approach to your own risk tolerance and market environment.
Gas panic in Europe: reserves depleting at record paceEurope is facing unprecedented depletion of gas reserves due to cold weather and technical challenges. According to EU gas storage data, storage levels have fallen to 70%, significantly lower than last year’s 86%. Analysts note that this situation is unique in the last seven years.
Adding to the strain, Norway’s Hammerfest plant, which supplies liquefied natural gas (LNG), has halted operations due to compressor issues. This suspension intensifies pressure on the gas market, especially in light of the cessation of Russian gas transit through Ukraine.
The European gas market is set for potential price increases in the coming months. Current storage challenges and reduced supply volumes heighten the likelihood of price hikes, particularly if the cold weather persists. Additionally, the reduction in Russian gas supplies forces the EU to compete more aggressively for LNG on the global market.
Advantages of investing in #GAS in 2025:
Rising energy demand: Increased gas consumption during the winter and limited supply create conditions for sustained price growth. Investing in #GAS could yield high returns during the current energy crisis.
Global LNG competition: Europe and Asia are actively competing for access to LNG. This boosts market liquidity and enhances its appeal to traders and investors.
Inflation hedge: Energy resources, including gas, are a traditional way to protect investments from inflation risks.
Transition to LNG: As part of supply diversification, Europe is increasing the share of LNG in its energy mix, supporting demand for gas futures.
High volatility: Significant price fluctuations present possibilities for short-term profits, particularly amidst geopolitical instability and weather anomalies.
Analysts at FreshForex believe that 2025 is the ideal time to invest in #GAS! Limited reserves, high demand, and volatility create perfect conditions for substantial profits. Don’t miss the chance to capitalize on the year’s leading energy resource!
Nat Gas: Heating Up into the WinterBrief Overview on Natural Gas
Natural Gas is a commodity generally traded on the premise of weather forecasts indicating cooler or warmer seasons. This allows traders to speculate on demand for the product as it generally trades higher with cooler temperatures. Today we are looking at the weekly chart.
Thesis: Technical Analysis Pointing to a Bounce
This analysis is mainly focused on the lasting demand zone that Natural Gas time and time again respects and typically bounces from. The weekly chart points to the likelihood that the R/R is favorable for a long position at these levels in the 2.20's. Not only do we see NG tap back into this heavy demand zone, but we also can see a Cup & Handle on the weekly chart signaling potential greater upside.
Demand Zone offers strong R/R as it dips back in to these levels.
Cup & Handle can represent even further upside, but will rely on the initial rebound to prompt the possibility of it playing out.
There is also a trendline (not pictured) that is supporting the current bounce we are seeing today from the 2.18/2.19 level. It is important to note that the commodity has been seeing higher lows since the Spring.
Lastly, a tap of fundamentals play into this idea as well. Though winter demand is always priced in, this year forecasts have repeatedly painted the picture that this winter will be historically mild. Due to these forecasts implying less seasonal demand for Nat Gas, a shift in the shorter-term and more accurate models as we approach the winter season will sharply move the price of Nat Gas and represents that the current price is truly pricing in a very mild winter. This basis supports the idea of great R/R on this LONG trade idea.
Disclosure
I am currently in a long position in Natural Gas after entering on the Friday (10/18) Close
My position includes: AMEX:UNG Credit Spread 13/12P , AMEX:BOIL common shares
If this thesis holds up, I would plan to roll my credit spread contracts into further expirys
Thanks for reading!
Not Financial Advice
Natural Gas - Supply and DemandAs previously iterated in my writings on crude oil NYMEX:CL1! here and here , my opinion is that conditions favor a bull market in energy products. Crude Oil has gained a few points since the time of publishing, and Natural Gas NYMEX:NG1! appears poised to follow suit. As seen below, most energy markets ( NYMEX:CL1! , NYMEX:NG1! , ICEEUR:BRN1! , NYMEX:RB1! , NYMEX:MBA1! ) have rallied in the last year.
The most active, and volatile of the energy products shown in the above chart is Natural Gas $NYMEX:NG1!. There are many reasons it may have rallied since the 2nd quarter of 2020, such as an energy crisis in Texas, and war in Eastern Europe and the Middle East. Increasing up to 500% at one point in the last 5 years, though the price has backed off we still observe the market making new highs.
There are some very serious considerations in oil and gas, which do not appear to have been of any consideration. Just yesterday, US president Joe Biden elected to place a ban on all future leases on offshore drilling operations. Though he has cited a transition to clean energy as a suitable alternative, there is not much reason for markets to believe him. As mentioned, back in 2021 an unexpected cold snap in Texas led to panic in domestic energy markets as generators and suppliers were unable to meet demand. According to statistics published domestically all around the world including the USA, it is indicated that inflation has subsided as central banks lower rates. Yet as we can see, Natural Gas in the US in particular has continued to rally, and what's more the futures curve indicates market participants expect the price to continue to rise into 2027. This is in spite of the increasing strength of the US Dollar TVC:DXY , which may weigh against the price of Natural Gas.
www.bruegel.org
In Europe, the situation surrounding the availability of energy products may be even more alarming. Ukraine has elected to not negotiate terms for an extension of a natural gas contract with Russia. There are many pipelines from Russia which supply much of Europe with natural gas, both offshore and through Ukraine. Much of which will have passed through Ukraine and Belarus, since the sabotage of the Nordstream pipelines. As such much of Europe's energy in the last couple years has been Suppled by the USA, though a significant sum from Russia has continued to be supplied through Ukraine. Considering that the US has just made the decision to reduce it's future supply of natural gas, it seems unlikely that it will be able to supply Europe at the same price.
In terms of future uncertainty, we can also look at Canada. A major supplier of energy products globally, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has decided to step down, though an election is not slated until October. With Donald Trump taking office in just 13 days, and threatening tariffs, we might anticipate the lack of clear governance over continental trade will have a negative impact on the stability of natural gas markets. In face of volatility and a decreased future demand, North-American as well as European energy markets seem poised to take a strong bullish stance.
Besides pipelines, a great deal of import/export in natural gas is done in Liquid Natural Gas (LNG). Due to violence in the Red Sea, carriers of LNG in particular have opted to take the longer route around the horn of Africa. The politics surrounding commercial maritime shipping have become very complicated in the last year, between terrorist attacks, union strikes, blocked shipping lanes and an (allegedly) poor prognosis for the Panama Canal. Which is to express, without bearing too heavy on details of the politics of maritime law, that the future has become uncertain. Since 2022 interest rates have been rising, and as such commercial shipping insurance rates have been rising, war clauses notwithstanding. Since insurance companies are at liberty to play politics, it should leave no doubt in a speculators' mind that they will. Already lobbying efforts have begun to remove EU sanctions on Russian oil exports, for the effect they have had on oceanic insurance. This issue is further discussed in my first post on crude oil. See below the price of Natural gas in the UK over the last year.
Natural gas consumption worldwide has been on the rise for the past several decades, as it is sought after as a cleaner and cheaper alternative to crude oil derivatives. It must be considered that beyond supplying energy to the public, this commodity plays an important role in industrial processes and manufacturing. The effect of a reduced supply encompasses a gross majority of the global economy. In fact it is so obvious that the price will rise, the only bear argument I can surmise might be a global conspiracy against energy and the trading of energy products, thus rendering their useless and of little worth. Given the sweeping measures imposed by Biden just 14 days before the end of his presidency, traders should beware of capital controls imposed on these markets. While I am wholly bullish on this market, on every basis from technical to fundamental, it is a SERIOUS risk that trading in these markets will be prohibited through political measures. Sovereign debt is mounting, and inflation threatens to critically exacerbate the issue of interest rates.
That being said, markets are markets. Thanks for reading.
"It ain't what you don't know that gets you in trouble, it's what you know for sure that just ain't so"
-Mark Twain
Will Europe's Gas Gambit Reshape the Global Energy Landscape?In a bold move reverberating across global energy markets, Ukraine's decision to halt Russian gas transit on New Year's Day 2025 has ushered in a new era of energy geopolitics. This watershed moment not only challenges decades-old supply patterns but also tests Europe's resilience and strategic foresight in securing its energy future. The immediate market response, with gas prices surging to levels unseen since late 2023, underscores the significance of this pivotal shift.
Against this backdrop of uncertainty, Norway's Troll field has emerged as a beacon of hope, setting unprecedented production records and demonstrating Europe's capacity for strategic adaptation. With production reaching 42.5 billion standard cubic meters in 2024, this achievement showcases how technological innovation and operational excellence can help reshape traditional energy dependencies. Meanwhile, BMI's forecast of a 40% price increase for 2025 signals the complex interplay between supply disruptions, growing demand, and market expectations.
The transformation of Europe's energy landscape extends beyond mere supply chain reorganization. While countries like Slovakia, Austria, and Moldova face immediate challenges in securing alternative gas sources, the broader European response highlights a remarkable shift in energy security strategy. With storage facilities maintaining robust levels and infrastructure upgrades underway, Europe's energy transition demonstrates how geopolitical challenges can catalyze innovation and strategic resilience in the global energy sector.
Nat Gas: Trading the WeatherNYMEX: Micro Henry Hub Natural Gas Futures ( CME_MINI:MNQ1! )
On December 31, 2024, the lead contract of NYMEX Henry Hub Natural Gas futures closed at $3.6330 per MMBtu. This marked a strong gain of 44.5% year-over-year, making it the best performing active futures contract for the year.
Nat Gas is one of the most actively traded commodities. According to CME Group:
• Henry Hub booked record trading volume in 2024. Average daily volumes for futures and options were 566,000 and 242,000 contracts, respectively.
• As of last Friday, Open Interests were 1,511,978 for futures and 775,176 for options.
The Basic
Natural gas is a leading energy source for global economy. While clean energy generates a lot of buzz these days, natural gas still carries the biggest load in power generation. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimates U.S. electricity production at 4.18 trillion kilowatt-hours in 2023.
• About 43.1% of the electricity was generated by natural gas.
• Nuclear power contributed to 18.6%, while coal had a 16.2% share.
• Combined, Renewables accounted for a 21.4% share, including 10.2% from Wind, 5.7% from Hydro, and 3.9% from Solar.
The price of a commodity is determined by its supply and demand. In the case of electricity, it is hard to store while its demand is highly unpredictable. New storage technology is limited by capacity and high cost. With Nat Gas being the biggest energy source, unforeseen changes in power demand could send shock waves into the market.
Weather factors, in particular temperature, have the biggest impact in power demand.
• In the summer months, the biggest power usage is for air conditioning cooling. Cooling Degree Day (CDD) is the number of days in a month where the average daily temperature is above 68 degrees Fahrenheit.
• In the winter months, the biggest power usage is for heating home and offices. Heating Degree Day (HDD) is the number of days in a month where the average daily temperature is below 68 degrees Fahrenheit.
Energy traders deploy CDD/HDD analysis and weather forecast models to predict temperature trends, electricity demand and the subsequent natural gas use.
The Weather Shocks
On December 29, 2024, the Weather Co. and Atmospheric G2 released a weather forecast for January showing colder than average temperature in the East, specifically from Florida to Maine as well as certain parts of the Great Lakes.
In a separate report, AccuWeather meteorologists said that the colder air could trigger a winter storm with substantial snow and ice for a significant portion of the month’s first half. They added that the drop will begin in the middle and latter part of next week.
When the futures market opened the next day, the price of Henry Hub futures surged 20%, hitting a new 52-week high of $4.20.
Earlier in the winter, Germany experienced the so-called “Dunkelflaute” with no wind and a clouded sky. This is the worst scenario for wind and solar power. As Germany is heavily reliant on renewable energy, when the weather fails to cooperate, its power supply drops by half, sending electricity prices sky high.
The huge supply gap prompted energy companies to turn on gas-fueled backup power plants, pushing the Dutch TTF ( NYMEX:TTF1! ) natural gas contracts to a record high.
At the time of this writing, severe winter storms are sweeping across the Central Plains in the U.S., bringing heavy snow, sleet, and frozen rain from Kansas to Missouri, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Ohio and Washington, D.C. Apart from the winter hazards, I expect higher power consumption to keep people warm from the below-average temperatures.
Trading with Micro Henry Hub Futures
Micro Henry Hub natural gas futures (MNG) offer smaller-sized versions of CME Group’s liquid benchmark Henry Hub futures (NG) contracts. The Micro futures have a contract size of 1,000 MMBtu, which is 1/10th of the standard contract. The Micro contracts allow traders to control a large contract value with a small amount of capital.
With Friday settlement price of $3.354, each February contract (MNGG5) has a notional value of $3,354. Buying or selling one contract requires an initial margin of $366.
Since its Monday high, Henry Hub prices have plunged 20%. Subsequent updated weather forecasts now predicted warmer trends for the Eastern US, which could curb heating demand for Nat Gas. Losses accelerated last Friday after the EIA reported that Nat Gas inventories for the week of December 27th fell -116 bcf, a smaller draw than expectations of -128 bcf.
In my opinion, the draw was lower due to the reduced economic activity around the Christmas holiday. For the same token, we could see a smaller draw during the New Year. However, I consider this data seasonal outliners, rather than a longer-term trend.
Global warming doesn’t necessarily mean warmer winters. Higher global temperature brings moisture from the ocean, with wetter atmosphere generating more extreme weather events. I expect winter temperature patterns to shift to much colder-than-normal, with cool anomalies poised to stick around key population centers deep into the winter.
As we have seen in the past, unpredictable weather events could send large shocks to natural gas prices. With Micro Henry Hub contracts, traders could potentially realize sizable gains with a small capital requirement.
Hypothetically, if the February prices move up 10% to $3.689 with lower temperature forecasts, the $0.3354 price gain would translate into $335.4 for a long futures position, given the contract size at 1,000 MMBtu. Using the initial margin of $366 as a cost base, the trade would produce a theoretical return of 99.6% (=335.4/366).
The long futures position would lose money if Nat Gas prices continued to trend lower.
Happy Trading.
Disclaimers
*Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
NATGAS // Can you imagine $1?This weekly candle looks bearish. It's even more bearish if we take into account that it was printed on the monthly impulse base.
It means that the monthly trend is still short, and if the weekly gets aligned, the price may target the last clean weekly breakout (red), where the countertrend line also breaks, and where the $1 for natural becomes a nice target.
Do you see it coming?
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Orange lines represent impulse bases on major timeframes, signaling the direction and validity of the prevailing trend by acting as key levels where significant momentum originated.
Level colors:
Daily - blue
Weekly - purple
Monthly - magenta
H4 - aqua
Long trigger - green
Short trigger - red
———
Stay grounded, stay present. 🏄🏼♂️
<<please boost 🚀 if you enjoy💚
Cold Weather Sparks Natural Gas Rally – $5+ in Sight!🔥 Natural Gas Breaks Out – Bulls Charge as Cold Weather Fuels Demand! 🔥
Natural Gas Futures are soaring, backed by January’s colder-than-expected weather forecasts driving heating demand. The breakout above the critical $3.614 level signals powerful bullish momentum, with prices now trading around $3.8610 .
🚀 Why This Rally is Just Getting Started:
$3.614: A Key Level Overcome
Previously a strong resistance, this level had historically acted as support. Its decisive break confirms a shift in market dynamics and solidifies the bullish trend.
Gap to Be Filled at $4.1681
A price gap at $4.1681 suggests a strong upward magnet, as markets often seek to close such gaps. This aligns perfectly with the next major resistance target.
🌟 Trade :
Current Price: $3.8610
Take Profit 1: $4.1681 – The gap-fill level and next major resistance zone.
Take Profit 2: $5.3064 – A long-term target if cold weather continues to drive demand.
Stop Loss: $3.4300 – Protect your capital below this level, as it marks the lower boundary of this bullish momentum.
Natural gas is heating up, and the market is poised for an extended rally. The breakout above a historically significant level, combined with the gap at $4.1681, underscores strong bullish potential. With January’s cold weather expected to persist, this rally could have plenty of room to run.
The bulls are in control – ride the wave to new highs! 🐂🔥
Bullish on Natural Gas - January 280 Call OptionSummary: I'm bullish on the Natural Gas January 280 call option. Here's my trade idea:
Current Price: Closed at ₹24.76 on December 27, 2024.
Entry:
Best Buying Price: Aim to enter below ₹18.80 for optimal risk-reward.
Target:
Price Target: Looking towards ₹37-₹40.
Rationale:
The current market conditions suggest potential for an upward movement in natural gas prices, supported by seasonal demand increases and possible geopolitical tensions affecting supply.
Technical analysis indicates a potential breakout if the price sustains above key support levels.
Risk Management:
Set a stop-loss just below ₹16 to minimize potential losses if the market moves against the position.
Position size should be managed to ensure the trade aligns with your risk tolerance.
Time Frame:
This trade is for the January expiry, giving us a tight window to capitalize on the expected price increase.
Disclaimer: This is not financial advice but a personal trading idea. Always do your own research and consider your financial situation before trading.
Let's see if we can catch that wave up to ₹37-₹40!
"NATURAL GAS" Commodities Market Bullish Heist PlanHello!! My Dear Robbers / Money Makers & Losers, 🤑 💰
This is our master plan to Heist "NATURAL GAS" Commodities Market based on Thief Trading style Technical Analysis.. kindly please follow the plan I have mentioned in the chart focus on Long entry. Our target is Red Zone that is High risk Dangerous level, market is overbought / Consolidation / Trend Reversal / Trap at the level Bearish Robbers / Traders gain the strength. Be safe and be careful and Be rich.
Entry 📈 : Can be taken Anywhere, What I suggest you to Place Buy Limit Orders in 15mins Timeframe Recent / Nearest Low Point take entry should be in pullback.
Stop Loss 🛑 : Recent Swing Low using 2H timeframe
Target 🎯 : 3500.0
Attention for Scalpers : Focus to scalp only on Long side, If you've got a lot of money you can get out right away otherwise you can join with a swing trade robbers and continue the heist plan, Use Trailing SL to protect our money 💰.
Warning : Fundamental Analysis news 📰 🗞️ comes against our robbery plan. our plan will be ruined smash the Stop Loss 🚫🚏. Don't Enter the market at the news update.
Loot and escape on the target 🎯 Swing Traders Plz Book the partial sum of money and wait for next breakout of dynamic level / Order block, Once it is cleared we can continue our heist plan to next new target.
💖Support, Like and follow our Robbery plan we can easily make money & take money 💰💵 Follow, Like & Share with your friends and Lovers. Make our Robbery Team Very Strong Join Ur hands with US. Loot Everything in this market everyday make money easily with Thief Trading Style.
Stay tuned with me and see you again with another Heist Plan..... 🫂