Natural Gas
Natural Gas: A Mega Move is BrewingNatural Gas has been a very volatile asset in recent sessions.
The price action in the 4 hour chart has triggered a bullish breakout.
The next bullish inverse head and shoulders pattern on the daily chart is starting to take shape. This pattern has not yet triggered.
If we see a breakout of this pattern there is about $1.50 of upside from the neckline.
Resource stocks are still holding up very well, granted so is the market.
A very similar structure is playing out on the weekly chart, regarding the 50 Weekly MA
If we see price trade in congruency we should see more upside this week and then potentially we may see some sellers the folling week
UPDATE: Natural Gas hit Target 1 and now pumping to T2 $3.80W Formation formed during April 2024.
The price broke above the Neckline and headed straight to the target recently atr $2.85
The latest development has been an even larger Cup and Handle formation in the process.
This has been since February 2024. The price is breaking above the Brim level and the next target is set to around $3.80.
Looks good!
European Gas Volatility: Causes, Impacts, and Future OutlookThis analysis examines the recent volatility in European natural gas prices triggered by supply disruptions in Norway. Unforeseen outages at the Sleipner gas field and the Nyhamna processing plant resulted in a substantial reduction in gas flows, leading to a price surge of up to 13%. This episode underscores Europe's susceptibility to external gas suppliers and emphasizes the need for a multi-pronged strategy to bolster energy security.
Key takeaways:
Unplanned infrastructure shutdowns in Norway significantly impacted European gas supplies.
The incident exposes Europe's reliance on imported gas, highlighting vulnerability.
Rising gas prices have the potential to escalate production costs for industries and household energy bills.
Price volatility can contribute to economic deceleration, public dissatisfaction, and political pressure.
Effective policy interventions and long-term investments in renewable energy are paramount for ensuring long-term stability.
Natural Gas: Wild price action!Is natural gas a buy at these levels?
Nat gas is currently digesting its recent rally.
You have to expect the bulls to make another push higher at some point but with todays reversal the bulls may have to wait a bit longer.
Resource stocks took another hit today but still holding near the highs.
Nat gas is still holding above the daily 200 MA.
Price action is oscillating between the .236 Fib & .382 Fib
UNG Natural Gas ETF now rising from its reversal LONG (XNGUSD )UNG on a 120-minute chart has reversed from a long trend down which started in mid -January.
This was a steep trend down from the start into mid- March where the trend angle lessened in
a period of relative consolidation until May 1st where the reversal occurred. This is a falling
wedge breakout with the trendlines of the wedge in thick red and thick green for resistance
and support respectively. The VWAP band lines have been downsloping. Price is breaking through
the lower band lines and heading toward the mean anchored VWAP line. Price is now above
a EMA 100 Keltner Channel which is now trending up.
I will take long trades here of both shares and call options. The targets are marked with
black horizontal lines from pivots in Jnauary. The are in the levels of 21 and 26 for now.
I would not be surprised if UNG moves up and targets the highs of last October at 30 in the
upcoming months. Many utility companies this summer will be burning gas to generate
electricity needed for air conditioning and demand should be rising.
Natgas - rebound phase - shortI want to be honest..
The rally long was a surprise for me, I expected a long phase but without this momentum.
It was really strange because we have a big storage increase more than last year and I expected a long phase but more flat.
so I think now we can have a rebound of price until support area more or less 2$ before the last long (if we will have).
The doubt if we have close or not the wave C ..
In any case I try a short position with small size and small risk.
Stop 2.8$
target 2$
NATURAL GAS Rejection at the top of the Falling WedgeNatural Gas (NG!) hit last week the top (Lower Highs trend-line) of the long-term Falling Wedge pattern that started on the April 10 2023 Low and was immediately rejected back to the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line).
As long as it holds, this rejection indicates that technically, the new Bearish Leg should start. Our Target is 1.550 (just above Support 1). If however the trend reverses and gives a candle closing above the Lower Highs, we will take the sell's loss and buy instead, targeting 3.300 (projected 1W MA100 extension).
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Natural Gas falling sharply! Profits Secured! Natural Gas has lost over 15% of the recent rally.
Pulling back today with the market, this commodity is now coming into an area for potential dip buyers.
Will the 200 MA hold firm?
Nat gas equities are holding relative strength despite the sell side pressure.
2 key trend channels of support are observed.
Profits secured on KOLD
NATURAL GAS: Rejection on the 7 month Resistance.Natural Gas is only marginally bullish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 56.609, MACD = 0.187, ADX = 40.616) as it failed to cross over the LH trendline. At the same time, it is supported on the 1D MA200 having broken out for the first time since January 3rd. Long-term we remain slightly bullish on NG but on the short-term, we will wait for LH validation. If the price crosses above it, we will take a short term buy and aim for the R1 level (TP = 3.350). If instead the price crosses under the 1D MA200, we will take a short term sell aiming at the 1D MA50 (TP = 2.200).
See how our prior idea has worked out:
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Natural Gas Positive economic indicators like the United States GDP Annual Growth Rate can be bullish for natural gas as demand grows with the economy. Conversely, high interest rates in the U.S. can be bearish as they may pressure consumption.
Traders often look at pivot points and support/resistance levels to make informed decisions.
It's important to note that natural gas trading is influenced by a wide range of factors, and prices can change rapidly. For those interested in trading or investing, staying updated with the latest forecasts, news, and technical analysis is crucial for making informed decisions. Always consider consulting with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
BLOOM ENERGY CORPORATIONBE:1W
Tradingview Description: Bloom Energy Corp. engages in the manufacture and installation of a solid oxide fuel-cell based power generation platform. Its product, Bloom Energy Server, converts standard low-pressure natural gas or biogas into electricity through an electrochemical process without combustion. The company was founded by K. R. Sridhar, John Finn, Jim McElroy, Matthias Gottmann, and Dien Nguyen on January 18, 2001, and is headquartered in San Jose, CA. (The above description is from the Tradingview Website)
My Analysis: Using the 1 week time frame (each bar equals 1 week of time) and showing 5 years of price history, I see a bullish descending wedge pattern that could turn up over the course of the next year.
A recent earnings miss has put price at multiyear lows and if I want to get long this stock this might not be a bad time. Despite this earnings miss NYSE:BE just posted its first positive earnings in the last 7 quarters, albeit below analyst estimates which is why its price recently took a nose dive.
Given the bullish price to RSI divergence (bottom indicator), whereby price is printing lower lows and the RSI is printing higher lows, we can take this as an indication of downside selling momentum waning to an exhaustion point and price beginning to find its 'local bottom' before potentially turning up.
That being said, I remain cautious about looking at this stock as an investment and I see it as more of a trade over the course of 6 months to a year. The most recent 'bearish outside bar' that 'fully engulfs' the prior bar is also of concern in the near term and could portend one more price drop before fully bottoming out.
Over the past 5 years price is down -2.08% which means that an investor has lost a little more than 2% on their capital appreciation over the course of the last 5 years if they held this stock the entire time.
Out of the19 Tradingview analysts reviewing the stock over the last 90 days, the stock is rated as a 'buy" with an average price target 71% above its current price point with a timeline to hit that level at some point over the course of the next year.
I love it as an extended 'swing trade', however natural gas is a fickle market within the energy sector and highly unpredictable so I would be very careful with the duration of time I held the stock and size my position accordingly. If I were up 40% or more I would set a 'stop loss' to preserve my gains on this particular stock given the volatility in the underlying commodity that drives the stock price which seems to be highly pegged to the natural gas market along with the broader clean energy sector.
Lower price target: 14.21
Upper price target: 17.90
Lower support begins at 4.27.