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Natural Gas

DBW in TTF FM hourly. New up or Gap CloseThe TTF FM is trapped in a sideway movement. After a cone and SKS formation which was resolved bearish with the slump to 43,2 we now see a completed but still not active DBW. The ideal upper target (box) is 51, the statistical target is the equal to the important top at 49.5 The bearish breakout would be at 43,2 and would imply the gap close at 37. Typically DBW are most of the time bullish reversal/continuation figures, thus a bullish break out is the more likely case.
NYMEX:TTF1!
by NDD46
1
Managing Positions with Parallel ChannelVideo tutorial: • How to identify downtrend and uptrend line • How to draw parallel channel correctly • Confirming a change in trend (using trendline itself) • Managing positions with parallel lines - Profits - Risks - Knowing its volatility Micro Natural Gas Futures & Its Minimum Fluctuation 0.001 per MMBtu = $1.00 Code: MNG Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
NYMEX:NG1!Education
by konhow
Natural Gas: A look at term structureLast week , we examined Natural Gas from a seasonality perspective. This week, we aim to extend that discussion and explore other ways to implement a similar view. To quickly recap: From a seasonality standpoint, we identified short-term opportunities for a downward move in Natural Gas. Factors such as higher-than-normal storage levels, unseasonably warm weather, and the typical price trends from December to January suggest a potential decline in prices. Additionally, prices have recently broken past initial short-term support, now trading below the $3 handle. Another perspective worth considering is the term structure. Term structure refers to the difference between futures prices of various maturities of commodity futures. It is visualized by plotting the prices of different expiry contracts, forming what we refer to as the term structure curve. The term structure reveals other insight that we can explore, starting with the basic slope, which can be categorized as flat, upward sloping, or downward sloping. Understanding these can reveal potential mispricing or provide a clearer picture of market expectations at different future points. Contango An upward-sloping term structure, known as "Contango", occurs where contracts closer to expiry are priced cheaper relative to those further from expiry. This can be attributed to factors like storage costs where contracts further from expiry might trade at higher prices due to the associated storage expenses. Sellers, therefore, demand higher prices to offset these costs. Backwardation A downward-sloping term structure, termed “Backwardation,” happens when prices in the near months are higher than those further from expiry. This might occur for various reasons such as a benefit to owning the physical material, also known as convenience yield or even just short-term demand pressures. Term Structure With a rough idea of contango and backwardation in mind, we can now look at Natural Gas term structure. The chart above shows the term structure for natural gas 1 year ago, 6 months ago and yesterday. Here we can see the 3 distinct shapes for the term structure, especially when we focus on the front part of the term structure. With the term structure a year ago deeply in backwardation, 6 months ago in contango and current term structure in a generally flat shape. We also observe that term structure shapes can change quite rapidly hence it can be valuable to look at the shape of the curve to place strategies on the term structure. For instance, if we maintain a short-term bearish but long-term bullish view, one strategy could be to short the front part of the curve while going long on the back part. This can be achieved by creating a Jan – Jun 2024 calendar spread, going short on the Jan 2024 contract and long on the Jun 2024 contract. What’s interesting when we look at the Calendar spread vs the outright price moves in the individual leg is that the direction of the outright contract moves generally dictates the direction of the calendar spread. Again, this could happen for a couple of reasons, one being that trading activity often concentrates on the front part of the term structure for liquidity reasons, hence, making the front part of the term structure generally more reactive than the back part of the term structure. But why trade the calendar spread instead of the outright? Reduced Margin Benefits of trading the calendar spread instead of the individual month contract include lowered margin requirements due to margin offsets from CME, reducing the margin needed compared to outright positions. Reduced sensitivity to risk/black swan events Both long and short positions in a spread will react together to risk events, albeit to different magnitudes, mitigating overall exposure. For example, during the Natural Gas rally in 2021, while outright prices increased from $2.5 to $9.5, the Jan – Jun 2023 calendar spread only increased by $1 over the same period. Similarly, on the decline, outright prices fell close to $8, but the calendar spread fell by only $0.74. This relatively controlled price swing allows for more manageable risk compared to outright contracts. Hence to express our short-term bearish but long-term bullish view, we can take a short position on the CME Henry Hub Natural Gas January 2024 Futures and a long position on the CME Henry Hub Natural Gas June 2024 Futures at the current level of 0.11. The same position can also be expressed using the newly launched (on 6 November 2023) CME Micro Natural Gas. At 1/10 the size of the full-sized contract, the margin requirements to set up a position become more manageable. Micro Natural Gas Futures Margin Requirements Alongside the lowered margin requirements, it offers the opportunity to tactically average into a position to achieve a better average entry price for the same amount of capital. Each 0.001 point move in the full-sized Henry Hub Natural Gas Futures is 10 USD while a move in the Micro Henry Hub Natural Gas Futures is 1 USD. The charts above were generated using CME’s Real-Time data available on TradingView. Inspirante Trading Solutions is subscribed to both TradingView Premium and CME Real-time Market Data which allows us to identify trading set-ups in real-time and express our market opinions. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com Disclaimer: The contents in this Idea are intended for information purpose only and do not constitute investment recommendation or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products or services. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios. A full version of the disclaimer is available in our profile description. Reference: www.cmegroup.com www.cmegroup.com www.cmegroup.com www.cmegroup.com
NYMEX:NGF2024Short
by inspirante
NATURAL GAS Buy inside the Megaphone. Sell beneath.Natural Gas/ NG is trading inside a Bullish Megaphone and the price is now on the corrective wave after the latest Higher High. Support A at 2.860 is the first line of defense and with the price this much under the 1day MA50, the most optimal buy entry technically within the Megaphone (observe the circles). Buy now and target 3.600 (Resistance A). Sell if the price crosses under the Megaphone and target 2.500 (top of Support Zone A). This is not unlikely as the 1day MA50 is displaying a Bearish Divergence. Follow us, like the idea and leave a comment below!!
NYMEX:NG1!Long
by TheCryptagon
Natural Gas: Over storage due to recency bias?So far we’ve covered Natural Gas twice, once in October 2022 , followed by another in May 2023 . As highlighted in both pieces we are generally longer-term bullish on natural gas but we do see some opportunities for a short-term tactical position now. As winter approaches, the harrowing memories of natural gas price movements during the previous winter seasons keep us vigilant. Some key points we find interesting now include the natural gas storage levels in the EU and US, unseasonal weather, price seasonality, and natural gas price action. Natural gas storage Natural Gas storage typically follows two clear seasonal trends: the winter withdrawal season and the summer injection season, with the summer months being April to October and winter from November to March. The chart below shows the storage level across time in the US. Current US Storage levels are close to the previous high in 2020. While in the EU, current gas storage levels are the highest they've been over the last five years. These high storage levels come off the back of a massive rally in natural gas prices in the 2021-2022 period. Which leads us to question, could this be attributed to recency bias? Have markets become over-prepared, with storage levels so high? Unseasonal weather One rationale for high storage levels is preparation for a harsh winter. The build-up of gas storage in the EU, particularly, was spurred by a warmer-than-expected start to the winter, resulting in less gas usage for heating. Forecasts also predict the 2023 winter in the EU & US to be warmer than average. A recent Bloomberg article on Natural Gas states: “Data generated by the Copernicus Climate Change Service signals a minimum 50% probability that most of Europe will experience well-above average temperatures between December and February. The Balkans, Italy and the Iberian peninsula have a 60% to 70% chance of exceeding median historical temperatures over the past three decades.” The EIA adds: “We estimate that U.S. natural gas inventories totaled 3,835 billion cubic (Bcf) feet at the end of October, 6% more than the five-year (2018–2022) average. We forecast U.S. natural gas inventories will end the winter heating season (November–March) 21% above the five-year average with almost 2,000 Bcf in storage. Inventories are full because of high natural gas production and warmer-than-average winter weather, which reduces demand for space heating in the commercial and residential sectors.” High storage levels, coupled with lower-than-expected demand due to warm weather, could signal further weakness for Natural Gas… Price Seasonality Adding to this is the general price seasonality of Natural Gas. Over the past six years, the August to end-of-October period generally sees a gradual rise, followed by a decline from December to January. With this year’s price behavior aligning with past trends, we could very likely see a downturn in prices heading towards the end of the year and into January. Price Action On a longer-term time frame, the 3.610 level has repeatedly served as both support and resistance. On a shorter timeframe, natural gas has been trading in a defined broadening formation, likely indicating increased price volatility. To express our short-term bearish view, we can take a short position on the CME Henry Hub Natural Gas Futures at the current level of 3.089, setting the stop at the resistance above at 3.26 and take profit of 2.62. Each 0.001 point move in the Henry Hub Natural Gas Futures is for 10 USD. The charts above were generated using CME’s Real-Time data available on TradingView. Inspirante Trading Solutions is subscribed to both TradingView Premium and CME Real-time Market Data which allows us to identify trading set-ups in real-time and express our market opinions. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com Disclaimer: The contents in this Idea are intended for information purpose only and do not constitute investment recommendation or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products or services. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios. A full version of the disclaimer is available in our profile description. Reference: www.eia.gov www.bloomberg.com www.eia.gov www.bloomberg.com www.bloomberg.com www.cmegroup.com
NYMEX:NG1!Short
by inspirante
2