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Natural Gas

NatGas: Come on! 👏NatGas needs to show a bit more motivation to complete wave 3 in green, as we expect the corresponding top near the upper end of the white zone between $1.88 and $3.43. After the price has also dealt with the short counter movement of wave 4 in green, it should finish the green five part upwards movement, rising from the white zone toward the top of wave iv in pink. As soon as this is placed, we reckon with a significant downwards movement, which should lead to the low of wave 2 in green before the ascent can start anew. However, there is a 40% chance that NatGas could leave the white zone on the lower side prematurely, thus developing wave alt.2 in green earlier already.
NYMEX:NG1!
by MarketIntel
Soybeans poised for a drop?Soybeans have certainly caught our attention as a classic head and shoulders pattern has emerged, suggesting a possible trend reversal. This implies a potential drop equivalent to the height from the head to the neckline, taking us towards the 900 level. Could this be signalling more downside in the soybean market? The current price action is intriguing as an attempt to break the neckline was rejected and prices now hover just below the neckline. Is this the prime moment to consider a short position on soybeans? We think it's worth exploring, and here's why... As we’ve last pointed out in the “It’s Corn!” idea in March, prices of the 3 major agriculture crops, Soybean, Wheat and Corn generally move together. Back then, we were highlighting the excessive premium in Corn futures as well as the break of a technical chart pattern. Now, we're witnessing a similar tale with Soybean stepping into the spotlight. From 2019 until now, these three crops have jockeyed for position in terms of percentage gain. Currently, Soybean is in the lead, when compared to Wheat and Corn, in terms of % gain from pre-COVID times and the onset of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Another way to look at it is to compare the ratio between Soybean & Corn as well as Wheat. The Soybean/Corn ratio is now at the higher end of its 7-year range, and while the Soybean/Wheat ratio not as extreme, is still closer to its range top. Another interesting dynamic we can look into is the Natural Gas – Fertilizers – Soybean dynamic. As natural gas is a key input in fertilisers production, the spectacular fall in natural gas prices has preceded falling fertiliser prices. This in turn, impacts soybean prices as well. Hence, we see a potential downside for Soybean as it trades at a premium as compared to Corn & Wheat. We can consider a short position on the Soybean Futures at the current level of 1340 with a stop at 1450 and take profits at 1250 followed by a subsequent take profit level at 900. This will allow profits on the anticipated downward move while also considering the head and shoulders pattern's target. CME’s Soybean Futures is quoted in U.S. cents per bushel. Each 0.0025 increment equal to 12.5$. The charts above were generated using CME’s Real-Time data available on TradingView. Inspirante Trading Solutions is subscribed to both TradingView Premium and CME Real-time Market Data which allows us to identify trading set-ups in real-time and express our market opinions. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com Disclaimer: The contents in this Idea are intended for information purpose only and do not constitute investment recommendation or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products or services. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios. A full version of the disclaimer is available in our profile description. Reference: www.cmegroup.com
CBOT:ZS1!Short
by inspirante
Using volatility for income trades - UNG 59% ivNatural Gas and other commodities offer alternatives to main show which is the stock market indices. The spx sp500 is currently offering very low volatility premiums because its been trending higher in smooth way, and put sellers have crushed premium there. UNG etf offers an alternative potential opportunity for me since premium is high enough and its already had a nasty sell off for months since fall of 2022. With headlines of hot summers and potential higher energy use, Im comfortable nibbling at premium trades in UNG.
AMEX:UNGLong
by ValuePig
1
XNGUSD BUY Long Trade Active, Time to Buy NAT-GASMy Trade Setup Buy on current price (2.6000) Take Profit Targets Target 1: 3.5 Target 2: 5.0 Target 3: 6.0 Greetings, fellow traders! I would like to share a long trade setup on NAT-Gas that has the potential for high profitability, an opportunity not to be overlooked. NAT-GAS prices have been steadily declining over the past nine months, indicating a strong bearish trend. However, it appears that this downward trend is coming to an end, and we can expect prices to rise in the months of July, August, and September. Both technical analysis and fundamental factors support a long buy setup for NAT-Gas. Technical Analysis: From a technical perspective, XNGUSD has found support in the 2.1000 area, leading to a rebound that is reinforcing the bullish momentum in prices. Indicators in the monthly timeframe have become highly oversold, further supporting a bullish price action. Additionally, NAT-Gas prices are currently trading above the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), suggesting a change in trend from downward to upward. The first major hurdle to overcome is the resistance area of 3-3.5. If the price manages to stay above 3.5 and a weekly candle closes above that level, it will indicate further upward movement, potentially driving prices towards the psychological mark of 5.00. Fundamental Analysis: In terms of fundamental analysis, there are several factors at play. NAT-Gas inventories are expected to decrease by 4 BCF, a figure larger than the five-year average. Moreover, maintenance activities at key LNG plants have resulted in a 10% decrease in US LNG exports for the month of June. European gas demand has also experienced a decline in the final week of June due to scheduled maintenance at plants. However, analysts anticipate an increase in LNG exports this quarter as maintenance activities conclude. The shift in gas supply from Russia to the United States in Europe is expected to stimulate prices, leading to the opening of many long trades. Additionally, the 50-day EMA indicates growing support, and traders are expected to become more active this month in order to secure substantial profits within a short period of time. The increase in gas flow to LNG export plants, coupled with a positive demand outlook, is boosting NAT-GAS prices. In Texas, power usage has remained high and even reached record levels during the recent heatwave, consequently driving up gas consumption for electricity generation. The forecast predicts hot weather in the southern, western, and eastern parts of the US from 3-9 July. As temperatures rise, analysts anticipate an increase in US gas demand, including exports. In June, US exports to Mexico saw an average increase of 6.6 Bcf/d. All these factors combined contribute to the bullish price momentum of NAT-Gas. Best wishes, and may you be rewarded with significant profits!
FXOPEN:XNGUSDLong
by AhsanTufail