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Natural Gas

NATURAL GAS-Pt.1- Correction about to complete?Hello traders, here is our view about natural gas. As we can see from the monthly time frame, natgas completed an impulse after breaking a big descending triangle. After reaching a top of 9.995, natgas created a head and shoulders pattern that coincided with a 535 structure to the downside, as showed in the main chart. Then, wave 3 of C seems to be completed with an ending diagonal. If the bullish macro count is in now we should go for another impulse up. Alternatively, we may get a (C) wave to complete the monthly retracement higher than 10. In the latter case to move to 9.995 would only be a (A) cycle correction of the descent from 2005 high of 16.477. In both cases, we expect a big buying opportunity coming soon in natural gas. We are not taking long positions now for wave iv of C since sentiment in retail brokers is over 90% long. When ALL the retailers are buying, who is selling to them? Who is gonna buy to actually put upward pressure on price? This is why extreme sentiment is a contrary indicator. We will update as soon as we see a long setup.
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by GMR-Capital
9
H&S on the Only Pure-Play FSRU StockWe all have been hearing about the great European floating natural gas trade of the Winter of 2022. Politicians, pundits, intellectuals, academics, influencers... everyone has something to say about it. Well, you know what they say: if everyone is talking about a trade, the opposite might occur. A number of catalysts have reversed people's expectations. European natural gas and electricity prices are crashing as a price caps have been imposed and as gas storage levels remain high. Apparently FLNG terminals are being turned away from Europe's import hubs. So... this trade has probably peaked already. EE set itself up for a beautiful base breakout and retest, but appears to have formed a daily downtrend at $28.40 after rejecting from the all time high of $31, forming a Head and Shoulders Pattern with a neckline at $25.10. There is a possible Bear Flag being sandwiched in between the 50 Exponential Moving Average, downtrending resistence reaching the neckline, and a support line going back to the stock's all time lows six months ago. There is also a double bottom at the neckline-- if it breaks then the target could be around the previous strong demand zone at $22.50.
NYSE:EEShort
by sdeutsch95
Jan 30,22-NG-Almost long? Not so much!So NG price gapped down from the Big Boys on the weekend, putting the price of NG to almost a 2 year low. Not good for people like me that wanna go LONG and make some money. Anyway, hold onto your shorts and keep waiting for the low...someone told me maybe 2.5 - looks like maybe they were correct :-) Anyway, I'm still waiting (isn't that a song?) - doesn't look like anything is gonna change anytime soon. While the U.S. is in a cold snap right now, the long term forecast says seasonal norms so I don't see any crazy price spikes coming anytime soon. Guess we shall see if we can trade the S n P 500 on Wed depending on how much the Fed raises rates. Stay safe all. Heiko
NYMEX:NG1!
by HEIKOTradingSystem
4
WTI Crude Oil / CL1 - Accumulation Before Global ConflictA lot of fundamentals say that oil should be going up. A lot of Twitteratti and furus say that oil should be going up. Yet, it's not. Oil hasn't been bullish since literally June . The only reason sentiment is still confusedly bullish like this is because WTI isn't (yet) trading like bonds. People say that OPEC+ cutting production was some kind of battle with Washington and that the Biden Administration are doing some green energy nonsense saboteuring the country by selling off the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), because Joe Biden is senile. That's not what's happening. Are you high? The United States is going to endanger its energy reserves while it's in a war with Russia? Don't be fooled by appearances. You need to start exercising critical thinking. In my view, what has transpired is pretty simple: 1. The Biden Administration said they would refill the SPR at $80 2. When WTI fell to $76, instead of refilling it, they sold more of the SPR 3. They keep selling more of the SPR on this bounce at $80 and 90 4. The average price the SPR was filled at, the last time I looked, was $60 So why did OPEC+ cut production? Because they're smart money and they realized the United States is short on oil. The U.S. and its vassals (including Canada) are by far the largest producers of oil in the world. It's their market, especially while Russia is out of the picture, and whoever makes the market sets the price. So OPEC+ understands that oil is going down and cuts production accordingly. When the Biden Administration refills the SPR, that's the bottom, WTI will bounce hard, and OPEC will increase production again. This is a lot of words to tell you that oil is going to make new lows, not new highs. This call that I made at the beginning of September is still definitely in play. WTI Crude / CL - An Intervention: Saving Blind Bulls There are some really important factors to look at in the longer timeframe charts. Consider that we're almost all the way through October and yet WTI, while it's in a bearish market shift, has not made a monthly low: This is even more obvious on the Weekly, where a gap is revealed: This ~$80 January gap range has now been traded extensively but has not produced the requisite re-continuation of a bull run needed, which means that lower prices are on the way. The reason is, $120 was not the top. A big number like $180 or $220 is incoming, probably in 2023, but before then comes manipulation and accumulation, frankly speaking, probably in the $50 range. Whether bulls want to hear that or not or want to believe that or not, that's how it goes. Not very many people believed Natural Gas was going to go from $10 to $4.9 either, but it did. Natural Gas / NG - It's Officially a Bear. Now, Hold My Beer The big wild card right now is actually not the conflict between the Russian Federation and NATO/Washington via Ukraine as a proxy. Even less is it whether the Federal Reserve keeps clowning around with interest rates. Xi Jinping was just crowned leader of the notorious Chinese Communist Party for an unprecedented third term and has consolidated the Politburo with only his own people. But more concerningly, the man who should be fulfilling his historic role to collapse the CCP from within a la Gorbachev instead was quoted by ABC as having made communism and the deteriorating CCP "absolutely central to China's development and future." This amounts to an abject disaster in Xi Jinping's life, a disaster for the Chinese people, and a disaster for the human race. If man won't do something about the problem of the Chinese Communist Party and its campaign of organ harvesting Falun Gong, then Heaven will. The CCP may or may not attack Taiwan. That's a major wildcard in this call. Personally, I don't think the Party has enough stability while being sacked by Wuhan Pneumonia and hit by economic problems to really dare do it. Yet, the more imminent a possible attack on Taiwan is, or the more imminent a major escalation with Russia is, the more violently the US oil market makers will dump WTI/Brent to where they want it to be so they can accumulate and refill the SPR. How you want to trade it and what you want to do is up to you. But I believe we see a number like $89 on WTI this week and I intend to go long on bear ETFs with a target under $50 imminent by January. Oil is something that is going to make a violent and impressive new high, but those cowboys are not going to let early money and dumb money come along for the ride particularly easily. Be careful. Humanity has officially entered the most dangerous moment, and at a period where we're already in the proverbial "Triple Overtime." What you believe can happen and what is actually happening, in reality, are often two different things.
NYMEX:CL1!
by LordWrymouth
4
$UNG bounce here back to the neckline. 60-70% upside potentialWhile I shared a previous idea of UNG falling all the way to $2 (and while I still think that's possible over the course of this year), I'm never one to pass up a good counter trend trade. Idea here: I think $UNG is bottoming here. This would setup a counter trend rally back to retest the H&S neckline it broke down from $17-18 range. There's 60%-70% upside in this trade should it materialize over the coming months. The first thing I'd watch for is a reversal in price action and then you can jump in. I set an alert for this price level and when my alerts hit, I jump into the trade. I'm in from $10.36. Let's see how it materializes over the coming weeks/months.
AMEX:UNGLong
by benjihyam
2
Natural Gas Analysis and ForecastBearish pressure is expected to persist in the coming days or week due to increased natural gas production following a June explosion that shut down a Texas LNG facility. The facility is expected to take at least two weeks to become operational again, but bullish pressure may return once it does as well as if winter conditions return in late January or early February. If the 3.500 level is broken, prices may increase to the range of 4.500-5.000 before a possible drop again. NYMEX:NG1!
NYMEX:NG1!Long
by ProTradeSignals
3
Jan 24,23-NG-Almost time to go longAs I mentioned in my post, 2 posts ago, I expect price to settle around 3. We had a little spike up in price but then it came right back down and now is under 3.2 So I will be watching closely to get in at 3.2, preferably lower if price goes lower. Every 100 points I will move my Buy Order lower to keep in step with the price lowering. Currently I'm in for a Buy Order at 3.2 Price might not go up too much or at all until next week. Watch out for the weekend Gap Ups or Gap Down from the 'Big Boys'... I expect I my order will get filled before end of day Friday. Take care and stay safe all. Heiko
NYMEX:NG1!Long
by HEIKOTradingSystem
15
Natural Gas: Long-term viewGreetings! Was keeping an eye on NATGAS and I saw the price forming an ending structure inside a channel. The price is in a big downtrend for a while now, but I am expecting the price to give us some green signs soon. We may drop a bit more towards an important Daily demand area which will also act as a stop hunt move from the big boys. In this regard, I will be focusing on the buys instead of sells. I am expecting the price to reach that area and then reverse. If we start going up and we get a breakout followed by a pullback, I am anticipating a high chance of moving up, at least for a correction in the bigger scale. My first area to watch if we start going up is the first 4H supply zone highlighted on the chart. Trade safe.
OANDA:NATGASUSDLong
by AAlex91
EWT – Is Natural Gas Prepared for a Reversal?In our previous article, we discussed impulsive wave C and its continuation. On 20 January 2023 , Price achieved our all given targets. Click here - ----------------------------------------------------- Timeframe : MCX Natural gas has accomplished the corrective wave B and started falling for impulsive wave C. Price has given a reversal from previous wave C, but it is no conclusive evidence that it has completed wave c. When it comes to confirmation, Traders should watch the level of 313 . If the price breaks out the 313 , it will enter into the parallel channel. Traders can buy for the following targets: 321 – 340 – 366 . Don’t forget prices are moving outside the channel, which is a negative point for traders. Bearish continuation is possible if the price sustains below wave (4). I will update further information soon.
MCX:NATURALGAS1!
by forextidings
2
NATURAL GAS Astounding multi-year Cycles showing sell's not overThis is not the first time we look into Natural Gas (NG1!) and its long-term patterns. We have coined its Multi-year Cycles Theory in the past and it is time to extend on it a little on the 1W time-frame. Typically investors ask us for 1D analysis such as the following we published 2 months ago (November 24 2022) and helped us identify the conditions that would fulfil the long-term bearish reversal we expected: As you see NG delivered the expected drop since it closed below its 1W MA100 and even hit and closed below the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line). Based on this multi-decade blueprint, this is a strong bearish continuation signal. As the chart shows, NG technically makes 4 year Cycles (bottom-to-bottom, top-to-top), which failed only one time in 30 years. Based on this, there is still significant time and range for the price to drop. The first stop is the (grey) High Volatility Zone, where the price typically trades for a longer-than-usual period of time. We need to keep an eye on the RSI on the 1M time-frame and its Higher Lows trend-line. If its holds, expect a bounce, in a similar fashion as the Lower Highs from May 2009 to February 2016. If they break, we expect first the 1.600 level to be tested as a Support and potentially under conditions (which we will analyze extensively if this time comes), the prices Lower Lows trend-line. Keep in mind that the RSI is always helpful and in recent months in particular, as its Bearish Divergence on Lower Highs (against the price's Higher Highs) from September 2021 to August 2022 projected the peak. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
NYMEX:NG1!Short
by TradingShot
4
Jan 21,23-NG-Price will settle around 3As you can see from the chart, somewhere between 2.8 and 3 is where the outside Linear Regression line is and that is where price will probably stabalize for the next while, until some force pushes price up....either weather, the War, Politics or some combination of all 3. Keep a close eye as 3 is a Support level. Weather is supposed to turn colder also, however, storage is pretty full, so I'm guesing until the EIA report shows a significant drop is reserves, or if the cold snap turns into a 4 week cold spell, price won't move too much. Heiko
NYMEX:NG1!Long
by HEIKOTradingSystem
5