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Natural Gas

oil 11-24 update.good evening, --- remember in my last oil post when i called the top? there was some really salty humans in the comment section who were most likely bag holders from the absolute peak of the bull run. this is an update for them. --- last post: --- i feel like oil has entered into a quatervois here, which is basically "crossroad" in french. currently seeing two potential trajectories: 1. -oil runs up to 100ish through an expanded flat (green targets most probable, grey are weak, and red is unlikely, but always possible). -after which, a swift downturn to my $57 target from the original post. 2. -oil simply see's a dead-cat bounce, creates another hidden bearish divergence, and rolls over yet again - continuing it's bearish trajectory to my original target. --- all paths lead down there, potentially even deeper - but the question as always is: which path's it gonna take? ps. no offense to all the people who talk smack on my posts, you're always welcome if you have a proper argument. just keep in mind, "fundamentals, is not a proper argument".
OANDA:WTICOUSD
by notoriousbids
2
NATURAL GAS Critical test for bullish or bearish DecemberNatural Gas (NG1!) hit yesterday the Lower Highs trend-line of the August 22 top and today we see the first signs of a rejection. Until this breaks decisively, we can expect NG to pull-back to the 0.382 and 0.236 Fibonacci levels. Based on the 1W RSI though, which is on a Falling Wedge since the October 01 2021 High, there is still some room to rally, and if yesterday's Lower High is anything like the February 02 2022 Lower High, then after this pull-back we can expect a rebound back to the 0.786 and 1.0 Fibs even a new Higher High. In that case we will be buying every closing above each Fib. A complete bearish reversal scenario will take place if the price makes a weekly close below the 1W MA100 (red trend-line), which is where NG rebounded on October 24. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, SUBSCRIBE ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support me, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- You may also TELL ME 🙋‍♀️🙋‍♂️ in the comments section which symbol you want me to analyze next and on which time-frame. The one with the most posts will be published tomorrow! 👏🎁 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
NYMEX:NG1!
by TradingShot
2
Nov 23,22-NG Winner-Finally closed original tradeFINALLY!! lol My original trade from like 2 months ago which was a Buy Order at 7 I finally closed this morning at 7.3 for an ok 300 point profit. As you can see from the chart, I have no more open trades. I'm going to stay on the sidelines as this week is a short trading week because of the American Thanksgiving. Between now and Sun night?!?!? Who knows what can happen! The War, Covid in China, Cold Weather, Warm weather - who knows. All I know is I don't want to hold trades for the next 5 or 6 days not knowing what the Big Boys are gonna do - then Sun night there is a huge Gap Down or something. Anyway, price action might continue up to 7.6 or so early next week, or maybe it will tank based on all the crap happening in the world - hard to say. Happy Thanksgiving to those of you celebrating. Otherwise, take call all and stay safe - I will post early next week and let you know my thoughts. Heiko
NYMEX:NG1!Long
by HEIKOTradingSystem
Gold GC1 - A New ATH is Simply a Fantasy. But, a Big Trade Brewsis this thing that has traded like a boat anchor, as much of a boat anchor as Bitcoin . More or less not moving at all. Yet, as with all things, consolidation periods only last for so long before the volatility picks up again to draw in new attention. This chart is a huge amount of time and very wide ranges and so it's very hard to stuff the important info into the part associated with this call. You'll have to read my wall of text for it to all make sense. Many have wondered, myself included, how Gold could have failed to make a new high during its post-Russian Federation invasion of Ukraine pump to $2078. I myself traded this during that time and had months worth of longs established at $1,600, $1,700, $1,800 and missed the chance to get out at a profit, waiting for it to set a new high. I was very confused. Over the months, I have upgraded myself significantly and I now understand why. It's simple: Market makers were simply attacking the area above the '11 $1,923 ATH. The fact that no new high was made indicates that MMs are heavy on the sell. Unfortunately for goldbugs, this means that a new all time high is literally a fantasy. It will happen, but not until significant downside conditions are met. The total range equilibrium between the $1,069 low in '16 and the post-COVID ATH is roughly $1,550. Until gold trades below this area and there are indications longs are accumulating, there will not be a move towards an ATH again. This can be seen with a study of the monthly: And the Weekly: This is reality. Just get in line with reality and you'll be able to: a) Save losses b) Book gains Gold has traded, since September, underneath a key low, and has not followed its counterpart Silver in taking significant north-side runs. Today during FOMC madness, the one time that gold really ought to have gone up to draw in buyers based on the notion of inflation hedging, it instead ran into resistance at that $1,670 level. This mostly assures that gold is headed to new lows. In my opinion, there are two scenarios, the first is much more likely than the second, and bodes well for bulls: 1) Gold trades to the low $1,500s for a discount versus the COVID-hysteria lows for the first time in almost two years. Should it show signs of life here, Gold should reverse and head back into the $1,850-$1,900 area. But be warned this type of trading pattern will not amount to a run towards a new all time high, although it will feel like it, and all the "gurus" will assure you it will be. This type of trading pattern will constitute more selling, because a longer term move downwards is happening. 2) Gold loses all life and heads towards the $1,350 area. This will be long term bullish because, after what is likely to be at least a year of accumulation, it means that a new all time high is inbound. I believe gold will drop as equities rally more. I think that when equities start to dump, this time gold will go up, because it will drag in goldbugs and ancap types who think the dollar is on the way out and the gold standard is coming back. After you buy their bags at $1,900, gold will be crushed and you'll buy high and sell back low. Note that in terms of Commitments of Traders , although commercials are their most long they've been in three years, they're still not net long. You won't see them be net long until the $1,300s. But before then, we should see Gold mimic the patterns of silver , because more selling is in store. A final word: The biggest market risk right now is not the Federal Reserve , or a recession. Neither is it Credit Suisse collapsing. A lot of things are going to go up, and may even go up a lot (Don't believe it? Take a look at what the Dow Jones just did. Some components made a new all time high in the middle of your "Hawkish Federal Reserve" and your "recession."). The greatest market risk is that the Chinese Communist Party will either collapse internally or be thrown away by "Emperor" Xi Jinping as he, and the nation of China, struggle to survive what is happening. When that day happens, 20% days down on the indexes are going to come and there won't be any bounces. Wall Street won't be in such a mood to market make anymore, because all their collusion with the Chinese Communist Party and their implicit passive and active support of the organ harvesting persecution of Falun Gong will have many of their members scuttle into hiding. Just wait and see. Nobody thought the USSR would ever fall, and yet, it did. Overnight. Tl; dr Gold --> $1,500 with little upside in between. This is a bear trap. Then big bounce to $1,850. But the big bounce is a bull trap.
COMEX:GC1!
by LordWrymouth
13
NGAS BULLISH OUTLOOKNGAS prices started rising on Monday after a cold wave engulfed the European continent, testing its ability to coupe with the cold weather without its main natural gas supplier Russia. The instrument broke the resistance levels of the triangle chart pattern entering into a bullish movement. RSI indicator is above the 50 neutral line and MACD histogram is above 0, both confirming the potential bullish movement. If the trend continues the price might try to test levels of 7.649 In the opposite scenario, the price might try its previous support of 6.554 Risk Disclosure: Trading Foreign Exchange (Forex) and Contracts of Difference (CFD's) carries a high level of risk. By registering and signing up, any client affirms their understanding of their own personal accountability for all transactions performed within their account and recognizes the risks associated with trading on such markets and on such sites. Furthermore, one understands that the company carries zero influence over transactions, markets, and trading signals, therefore, cannot be held liable nor guarantee any profits or losses.
BLACKBULL:NGAS.FLong
by legacyFXofficial
🔥 Natural gas (NG): resumption of the long-term bull trend.●● Preferred count ● Natural Gas Cash ( NG .C), 🕐TF: 20D Fig.1 I worked out in detail the counting of long-term waves on the historical chart 1930-2022 . The chart has a number of notes. The structure of wave (IV) in the future may become more complicated to a triangle. The ending diagonal (V) is also questionable — the development of momentum I-II-III-IV-V is possible. _______________________________________ ● Natural Gas (CURRENCYCOM), 🕐TF: 1W Fig.2 Variant of counting of wave structure V of (III) in the form of an expanding diagonal and subsequent (IV) , which, apparently, took the form of a double zigzag with a triangle in x . _______________________________________ ● CFDs on Natural Gas (OANDA), 🕐TF: 1D Fig.3 The July 2021 forecast has been implemented. As expected, correction ② (wave Ⓑ in the current version of the counting) took the form of an expanded flat, returning to the area of the previous fourth wave . A long-term bullish trend is expected to resume. _______________________________________ ● CFDs on Natural Gas (OANDA), 🕐TF: 8h Fig.4 A good signal for opening a long position will be formed by waves 1 and 2 with consolidation above the moving average with a period of 610 . 📚 Elliott Wave Guide & Ellott Wave Archive ⬇️⬇️
OANDA:NATGASUSDLong
by TradeWaves-EWA
1
Natural Gas: A Crucial Area for Future MovementNatural Gas: A Crucial Area for Future Movement Price is close to a very strong and important area this time. The price looks very bullish considering the candles. If the price will manage to break through the red area then the next target will be the upper part of the structure near $7. If the price will stop the bullish steam below the red area it will move lower again up to the next support zones $6.4 and 6$ Thank you and Good Luck!
N
by KlejdiCuni
13
Nov 17,22-NG-900 pt profit-pullbacktimeI still have my stubborn original trade sitting at 7...but I made a nice 900 point profit overnight as my 5.6 Buy Order hit 6.4 - NICE :-) So is there going to be another pullback now? Not sure...weather is still looking cold, but the storage report later today will probably show no change, not very much change so price might go down some. If there IS a pullback, I will wait till the bottom hits and put in another Buy Order. Overall, between now and March I'm still LONG on NG - between Winter and the War, I see no reason for price to fall too much. Stay safe all... Heiko
NYMEX:NG1!Long
by HEIKOTradingSystem
6
The reasons why going long oil is the best trade you can take!In my opinion, the global energy crisis isn't over; hence there are many reasons why being bullish on oil makes sense, and in this idea, I will try to analyze most of them one by one. First of all situation between Russia-Ukraine doesn't look any good, and it also heavily affects Europe, which is essentially directly involved in this war. Currently, gas from Russia to Europe is lost and can't be replaced because Russia has cut flows while someone sabotaged the gas pipelines. At the same time, Europe is about to ban Russian oil from being sold to Europe while also trying to apply price caps on oil and natural gas. All these essentially increase the oil demand (to replace natural gas) while also decreasing production in case Russia cannot sell that oil to somebody else. As if these aren't enough, as many foreign oil companies managing the production have left Russia, its oil production could drop even more as they don't have the knowledge and ability to control the oil fields themselves. The oil prices remain under control simply because the US keeps releasing oil from its SPR while China keeps pursuing its zero Covid policies. The US eventually will have to stop releasing oil from its SPR because the SPR was created for an emergency, not to keep prices low to buy votes. Not only will the US have to stop emptying its SPR, but it will also have to refill it. Also, China will eventually realize its futile attempt to contain omicron and stop its lockdowns. Essentially just the combination of the two would be an incredibly bullish development for the price of oil, as a lot of supply would come off the market. At the same time, demand will increase massively as Chinese citizens want to travel and consume more. Unfortunately, the US and the world are pursuing catastrophic policies regarding the energy sector instead of pushing investments into it. The windfall taxes on the energy companies will discourage investors from putting money in while starving companies of cash they could have used to invest in more energy production. At the same time, many rules against the extraction of fossil fuels and nuclear energy production are making things even worse. As if these haven't been enough, the US is also talking about an export ban, which, if implemented, would have catastrophic consequences for the world and the US. It would create a massive imbalance in the oil market, which would already have severe issues due to the European embargo on Russian oil. Recently OPEC+ announced oil production cuts, and the tensions between the US and Saudi Arabia have increased significantly. While the US refuses to increase its oil output, OPEC+ cut production by 2 million barrels daily. However, here is the thing... OPEC+ agreed to reduce output that it was not achieving. The truth is that OPEC+ has reached its production limits, and most countries are failing to meet their quotas. There is no spare capacity, and it is tough for them to increase their output. Essentially the cut so far was mostly an admission that they can't produce more. Saudi Arabia and OPEC+ want to keep the price of oil around 80$ and are ready to cut production to counteract the Fed's actions to reduce demand by hiking interest rates. There is an ongoing war been energy producers and Central banks, and the more central banks hike interest rates, the more energy producers will have to cut. Of course, with all the rate hikes and the global economy in a silent depression, we are slowly moving into a brutal recession in the next 6-12 months, which could knock oil prices much lower for a while. However, as central banks are already being forced to pivot, dumping reserves and resuming QE, we could see them and governments trying to stimulate an energy shortage, which could increase oil prices. Finally, the US has talked about refilling its SPR when prices are below 60-80$, while the Saudis talked about cutting production if the prices are below 80$. This means that the price area between 50$ and 80$ is worth going long, as the US and OPEC+ are creating a price floor by reducing supply and increasing demand. So what's the trade? Accumulate oil in the 50-90 area. No stops. Target 250-300$. Time horizon - 2 years.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by BitcoinMacro
24
Natural GasSunday, 13 November 2022 01:00 AM (WIB) When I was small And Christmas trees were tall We used to laugh while others used to play Don't ask me why But time has passed us by Someone else moved in from far away Now we are tall And Christmas trees are small And you don't ask about the time of day But you and I Our love will never die To kiss and cry, "Come, first of May" The apple tree that grew for you and me I watched the apples falling one by one And I recall the moment of them all The day I kissed your cheek and you were gone Now we are tall And Christmas trees are small And you don't ask about the time of day But you and I Our love will never die To kiss and cry, "Come, first of May" When I was small And Christmas trees were tall Doo-doo-doo-doo-doo-doo-doo-doo-doo Don't ask me why But time has passed us by Someone else moved in from far away
N
by RyodaBrainless
2
Nov 9,22-NG-Get ready to go long folksNG has dropped a hell of a lot this week already, not sure how much more it can drop. I'm looking at Friday to get into a Long trade...if not then Sun night or Mon morning next week. Why? COLD WEATHER!! It's coming...damn cold weather across the U.S. Friday starts cold weather here in Toronto...in Alberta we already have snow on the ground. And next week in the U.S. it's gonna start getting quite cold, at least for U.S. standards. So I'm thinking price action will probably go back up. I still have my Buy Order at 7 waiting for some profits. I will put in an order maybe at 6, but I'm hoping to get in at 5.7 on a dip in price, sometime before the end of this week. Stay safe all. Heiko
NYMEX:NG1!Long
by HEIKOTradingSystem
9
Natural GasWednesday, 9 November 2022 22:04 PM (WIB) The Head N Shoulder, Tweezer Top Performance, and Three Black Crowes at the Resistance Lines confirmed the Natural Gas is still in the Bearish Market zone . At this moment, the price could face heavy pressure to downgrade. And for exit from the Bearish Market Pressure, Natural Gas has 2 Months period of negotiation, which means after December 2022, the price could be much lower than today. Following the news, Europe still has strong supplies of energy security for the winter season in December and after. Unfortunately, because this is the Crisis of the Recession, everything about the price is plunged to the ground. The major trend is still Bearish. Keep updated and note.
PEPPERSTONE:NATGAS
by RyodaBrainless
2