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Natural Gas

Natural Gas: Prices Could Plummet in DecemberEU and US futures remain stable, guided by the serene climate of the Chinese markets, where the launch of new support measures in China and other measures concerning the management of the pandemic could be announced shortly. This week the macro agenda revolves around Dec. 8 and 9 with the speech of the president of the ECB and with the US annual PPI, very important for confirming the ongoing decline in inflation. Nasdaq 100 Futures, S&P 500 Futures, DAX, FTSE MIB, IBEX 35: The rebound has almost exhausted its strength with the Christmas rally anticipated by the markets by a couple of weeks. In the short term, I am optimistic that the higher-than-expected drop in inflation in Europe and the US will give further impetus to the markets thanks to the easing of restrictive central bank policies. We saw last week what a boost any indication of easing the restrictive policy could give the markets. We properly exploited the situation with an excellent Buy operation on the Nasdaq 100 index near the market lows, a position still open. From 2023 things will change, and I advise you not to miss the next articles to keep up to date. Natural gas: Natural gas is in free fall as expected. The recent rebound was caused by the wave of intense cold across the US, which brought the demand for heating to a high level. The cold weather immediately vanished, with temperatures now expected to be higher than the seasonal average for December. In the long run, the situation is interesting. Europe will need even more LNG to replace Russian volumes next summer as the continent reloads storage. Chinese demand recovers from lockdowns and offsets lower imports from other Asian buyers. In the short term, the situation is pessimistic. In addition, the reopening of various export plants that have been offline for some time is creating an excess in domestic supply, which is also negative for prices. I will not buy gas at these prices for the reasons mentioned. I will evaluate a long entry only in the $ 4.50 area, which I expect will be tested in December. Crude oil: We are before a setback for oil. Although not penalizing Russia, the price cap could lead to an increase in demand for American oil, which is very positive for prices. Furthermore, the Chinese oil demand, held back by Covid, will pick up in 2023, and Opec is ready to intervene with a production cut to support prices in the event of a new collapse. However, I remain positive in the long term with a target of $90, and I am ready to re-enter after closing an excellent buy operation in profit.
NYMEX:NG1!Short
by Antonio_Ferlito
Natural gas 2023 outlook: Approaching a key confluence zone The recent price action in the daily natural gas price chart updated to December 5, 2022, saw prices falling rapidly and breaking below the supports of two moving averages (50dma and 200dma) and some key Fibonacci retracement levels, such as the 50% retracement of the post-Ukraine war rally to August highs. The two moving averages earlier created a death-cross pattern on November 10, which proved bearish after a brief rally to $8.04/MMBtu. In the summer, natural gas completed a head-and-shoulders pattern, falling below the $5.30 price support. That technical pattern was preceded by negative RSI divergence between April and June 2022, which also led in severe bearish price action to the $5.30 support level. The double bottom in October and July, as well as the significant technical resistance between November 2021 and March 2022, signal a very critical confluence zone for natural gas. The $5.30 critical support line is an important test for natural gas prices, which would have dropped by a recession-like 47% from their peak in August. If the war in Ukraine persists, it is quite improbable that prices will return to the $4.3 level, where they were trading on February 24, 2022, when Russia invaded Ukraine. Bulls may therefore reappear if the $5.3 support line and $5 psychological level are tested. On the upside, it is unlikely that the skyrocketing price levels observed in the summer of $9.5 or more will be retested anytime soon, as they coincide to an unprecedented supply issue in Europe that triggered an increase in US domestic prices due to increased LNG exports. In the first quarter of 2023, a sideways market trend with prices ranging from $5 to $8 appears to be the most likely scenario for US natural gas. The colder the winter. The more severe the winter in the Northern Hemisphere, the greater the possibility that prices will trade between $6.5-8 range. Rising recession risks and warmer-than-average temperatures, on the other hand, could prevent a depletion in gas reserves, keeping prices under pressure.
CAPITALCOM:NATURALGAS
by Capitalcom
Dec 4,22-NG-How Low Can It Go?In my last post last week, I gave several reasons as to NG declining in price. I said that it would probably get down to 6, maybe lower. It opened tonight in a Gap Down situation and now sits around 5.8 - crazy low. What will it do this week? Good question... I'm thinking it could get as low as 5.2, maybe touching 5 in a low 'rubber band' touch one day this week. Longer term I believe price will go up...problem is you have this thing called a Worldwide Recession hanging over us in the 1st quarter next year. This will keep prices down. You have Winter which will push prices up. And who knows what the War holds. Bottom line...dangerous time to trade. Unless you have a sure bet (which we never do), maybe best to stay on the sidelines and keep your cash :-) Stay safe and trade well. Heiko
NYMEX:NG1!
by HEIKOTradingSystem
4
Possible BOIL Cup and Handle in formation ENERGY PLAY LONGBOIL could be setting up a long continuation trade Now working on the handle. MACD shows the lines crossed while under the histogram is very often an excellent sign. Time will tell- My preferred trade will be call options expiring in late January or February. ( This is a triple-leveraged natural gas play with the upcoming winter heating season expected to be expensive especially in Europe. The inverse is KOLD which would be a good put option right now.) AMEX:BOIL
AMEX:BOILLong
by AwesomeAvani
Nov 27,22-NG Neutral this week?As you can see from the Daily Chart, price action is at the outside of the Linear Regression so it's possible this week price action could drop...maybe under 6. 1 - late last week both European AND UK NG price dropped 2 - Weather is looking steady, certainly on the cooler side, but still no snow really in the forcast for basically all of the U.S. 3 - China is in lockdown to the point that the world is now fearing a slowdown at the least - most of the world is thinking China will push the world into a recession as early as Jan, where price would certainly drop for NG 4 - Fractal from last week on the Daily so price will probably drop some. If price acion does NOT go up past 7.6 this week then there will be a fractal on the weekly chart also for next Sun. So will price drop this week?? Or just stay around Neutral?? No idea. Will probably go down some, at least that's what I'm thinking. So I have no idea how to trade this week so I'm on the sidelines till I can figure something out. Heiko
NYMEX:NG1!
by HEIKOTradingSystem
13
oil 11-24 update.good evening, --- remember in my last oil post when i called the top? there was some really salty humans in the comment section who were most likely bag holders from the absolute peak of the bull run. this is an update for them. --- last post: --- i feel like oil has entered into a quatervois here, which is basically "crossroad" in french. currently seeing two potential trajectories: 1. -oil runs up to 100ish through an expanded flat (green targets most probable, grey are weak, and red is unlikely, but always possible). -after which, a swift downturn to my $57 target from the original post. 2. -oil simply see's a dead-cat bounce, creates another hidden bearish divergence, and rolls over yet again - continuing it's bearish trajectory to my original target. --- all paths lead down there, potentially even deeper - but the question as always is: which path's it gonna take? ps. no offense to all the people who talk smack on my posts, you're always welcome if you have a proper argument. just keep in mind, "fundamentals, is not a proper argument".
OANDA:WTICOUSD
by notoriousbids
2
NATURAL GAS Critical test for bullish or bearish DecemberNatural Gas (NG1!) hit yesterday the Lower Highs trend-line of the August 22 top and today we see the first signs of a rejection. Until this breaks decisively, we can expect NG to pull-back to the 0.382 and 0.236 Fibonacci levels. Based on the 1W RSI though, which is on a Falling Wedge since the October 01 2021 High, there is still some room to rally, and if yesterday's Lower High is anything like the February 02 2022 Lower High, then after this pull-back we can expect a rebound back to the 0.786 and 1.0 Fibs even a new Higher High. In that case we will be buying every closing above each Fib. A complete bearish reversal scenario will take place if the price makes a weekly close below the 1W MA100 (red trend-line), which is where NG rebounded on October 24. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, SUBSCRIBE ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support me, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- You may also TELL ME 🙋‍♀️🙋‍♂️ in the comments section which symbol you want me to analyze next and on which time-frame. The one with the most posts will be published tomorrow! 👏🎁 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
NYMEX:NG1!
by TradingShot
2
Nov 23,22-NG Winner-Finally closed original tradeFINALLY!! lol My original trade from like 2 months ago which was a Buy Order at 7 I finally closed this morning at 7.3 for an ok 300 point profit. As you can see from the chart, I have no more open trades. I'm going to stay on the sidelines as this week is a short trading week because of the American Thanksgiving. Between now and Sun night?!?!? Who knows what can happen! The War, Covid in China, Cold Weather, Warm weather - who knows. All I know is I don't want to hold trades for the next 5 or 6 days not knowing what the Big Boys are gonna do - then Sun night there is a huge Gap Down or something. Anyway, price action might continue up to 7.6 or so early next week, or maybe it will tank based on all the crap happening in the world - hard to say. Happy Thanksgiving to those of you celebrating. Otherwise, take call all and stay safe - I will post early next week and let you know my thoughts. Heiko
NYMEX:NG1!Long
by HEIKOTradingSystem
Gold GC1 - A New ATH is Simply a Fantasy. But, a Big Trade Brewsis this thing that has traded like a boat anchor, as much of a boat anchor as Bitcoin . More or less not moving at all. Yet, as with all things, consolidation periods only last for so long before the volatility picks up again to draw in new attention. This chart is a huge amount of time and very wide ranges and so it's very hard to stuff the important info into the part associated with this call. You'll have to read my wall of text for it to all make sense. Many have wondered, myself included, how Gold could have failed to make a new high during its post-Russian Federation invasion of Ukraine pump to $2078. I myself traded this during that time and had months worth of longs established at $1,600, $1,700, $1,800 and missed the chance to get out at a profit, waiting for it to set a new high. I was very confused. Over the months, I have upgraded myself significantly and I now understand why. It's simple: Market makers were simply attacking the area above the '11 $1,923 ATH. The fact that no new high was made indicates that MMs are heavy on the sell. Unfortunately for goldbugs, this means that a new all time high is literally a fantasy. It will happen, but not until significant downside conditions are met. The total range equilibrium between the $1,069 low in '16 and the post-COVID ATH is roughly $1,550. Until gold trades below this area and there are indications longs are accumulating, there will not be a move towards an ATH again. This can be seen with a study of the monthly: And the Weekly: This is reality. Just get in line with reality and you'll be able to: a) Save losses b) Book gains Gold has traded, since September, underneath a key low, and has not followed its counterpart Silver in taking significant north-side runs. Today during FOMC madness, the one time that gold really ought to have gone up to draw in buyers based on the notion of inflation hedging, it instead ran into resistance at that $1,670 level. This mostly assures that gold is headed to new lows. In my opinion, there are two scenarios, the first is much more likely than the second, and bodes well for bulls: 1) Gold trades to the low $1,500s for a discount versus the COVID-hysteria lows for the first time in almost two years. Should it show signs of life here, Gold should reverse and head back into the $1,850-$1,900 area. But be warned this type of trading pattern will not amount to a run towards a new all time high, although it will feel like it, and all the "gurus" will assure you it will be. This type of trading pattern will constitute more selling, because a longer term move downwards is happening. 2) Gold loses all life and heads towards the $1,350 area. This will be long term bullish because, after what is likely to be at least a year of accumulation, it means that a new all time high is inbound. I believe gold will drop as equities rally more. I think that when equities start to dump, this time gold will go up, because it will drag in goldbugs and ancap types who think the dollar is on the way out and the gold standard is coming back. After you buy their bags at $1,900, gold will be crushed and you'll buy high and sell back low. Note that in terms of Commitments of Traders , although commercials are their most long they've been in three years, they're still not net long. You won't see them be net long until the $1,300s. But before then, we should see Gold mimic the patterns of silver , because more selling is in store. A final word: The biggest market risk right now is not the Federal Reserve , or a recession. Neither is it Credit Suisse collapsing. A lot of things are going to go up, and may even go up a lot (Don't believe it? Take a look at what the Dow Jones just did. Some components made a new all time high in the middle of your "Hawkish Federal Reserve" and your "recession."). The greatest market risk is that the Chinese Communist Party will either collapse internally or be thrown away by "Emperor" Xi Jinping as he, and the nation of China, struggle to survive what is happening. When that day happens, 20% days down on the indexes are going to come and there won't be any bounces. Wall Street won't be in such a mood to market make anymore, because all their collusion with the Chinese Communist Party and their implicit passive and active support of the organ harvesting persecution of Falun Gong will have many of their members scuttle into hiding. Just wait and see. Nobody thought the USSR would ever fall, and yet, it did. Overnight. Tl; dr Gold --> $1,500 with little upside in between. This is a bear trap. Then big bounce to $1,850. But the big bounce is a bull trap.
COMEX:GC1!
by LordWrymouth
13
NGAS BULLISH OUTLOOKNGAS prices started rising on Monday after a cold wave engulfed the European continent, testing its ability to coupe with the cold weather without its main natural gas supplier Russia. The instrument broke the resistance levels of the triangle chart pattern entering into a bullish movement. RSI indicator is above the 50 neutral line and MACD histogram is above 0, both confirming the potential bullish movement. If the trend continues the price might try to test levels of 7.649 In the opposite scenario, the price might try its previous support of 6.554 Risk Disclosure: Trading Foreign Exchange (Forex) and Contracts of Difference (CFD's) carries a high level of risk. By registering and signing up, any client affirms their understanding of their own personal accountability for all transactions performed within their account and recognizes the risks associated with trading on such markets and on such sites. Furthermore, one understands that the company carries zero influence over transactions, markets, and trading signals, therefore, cannot be held liable nor guarantee any profits or losses.
BLACKBULL:NGAS.FLong
by legacyFXofficial
🔥 Natural gas (NG): resumption of the long-term bull trend.●● Preferred count ● Natural Gas Cash ( NG .C), 🕐TF: 20D Fig.1 I worked out in detail the counting of long-term waves on the historical chart 1930-2022 . The chart has a number of notes. The structure of wave (IV) in the future may become more complicated to a triangle. The ending diagonal (V) is also questionable — the development of momentum I-II-III-IV-V is possible. _______________________________________ ● Natural Gas (CURRENCYCOM), 🕐TF: 1W Fig.2 Variant of counting of wave structure V of (III) in the form of an expanding diagonal and subsequent (IV) , which, apparently, took the form of a double zigzag with a triangle in x . _______________________________________ ● CFDs on Natural Gas (OANDA), 🕐TF: 1D Fig.3 The July 2021 forecast has been implemented. As expected, correction ② (wave Ⓑ in the current version of the counting) took the form of an expanded flat, returning to the area of the previous fourth wave . A long-term bullish trend is expected to resume. _______________________________________ ● CFDs on Natural Gas (OANDA), 🕐TF: 8h Fig.4 A good signal for opening a long position will be formed by waves 1 and 2 with consolidation above the moving average with a period of 610 . 📚 Elliott Wave Guide & Ellott Wave Archive ⬇️⬇️
OANDA:NATGASUSDLong
by TradeWaves-EWA
1
Natural Gas: A Crucial Area for Future MovementNatural Gas: A Crucial Area for Future Movement Price is close to a very strong and important area this time. The price looks very bullish considering the candles. If the price will manage to break through the red area then the next target will be the upper part of the structure near $7. If the price will stop the bullish steam below the red area it will move lower again up to the next support zones $6.4 and 6$ Thank you and Good Luck!
N
by KlejdiCuni
13
Nov 17,22-NG-900 pt profit-pullbacktimeI still have my stubborn original trade sitting at 7...but I made a nice 900 point profit overnight as my 5.6 Buy Order hit 6.4 - NICE :-) So is there going to be another pullback now? Not sure...weather is still looking cold, but the storage report later today will probably show no change, not very much change so price might go down some. If there IS a pullback, I will wait till the bottom hits and put in another Buy Order. Overall, between now and March I'm still LONG on NG - between Winter and the War, I see no reason for price to fall too much. Stay safe all... Heiko
NYMEX:NG1!Long
by HEIKOTradingSystem
6