Natural Gas
The Price of Natural Gas Finds Support. But for How Long?The Price of Natural Gas Finds Support. But for How Long?
On 21 June, we wrote that the trend in the market was weakening, noting that:
→ Forecasts of a hotter summer, published during April-May, led to a sustained bullish trend in the natural gas market.
→ According to the technical analysis of the 4-hour XNG/USD chart and the signs of weakness that have formed on it, the level of 3.160 appears to sufficiently account for the risks of an extremely hot summer.
→ Bears might push the price to the lower boundary of the ascending trend channel.
Since then, the price of natural gas has:
→ tested the median of the ascending channel (shown by an arrow), which acted as resistance;
→ broken the lower boundary of the channel;
→ dropped to the level of 2.06 amid news of sufficient natural gas reserves in storage.
And, as the XNG/USD chart shows today, it is this level that is now forming signs of support for the market:
→ the lows A-B appear to be elements of an incomplete double bottom pattern;
→ the level of 2.06 acted as resistance in March-April, so support here is anticipated by technical analysts.
But can the bulls reverse the trend?
In the near future, the price of natural gas may consolidate within a narrowing triangle, formed by the support at 2.06 and the descending trend line (shown in red). It is possible that failures in any attempts to break through the red line will lead to a resumption of the downward trend and a subsequent decline in price towards the support at 1.875.
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Natural Gas...New All time lows? Natural gas has seen a failed breakout on the daily chart. After this failed breakout occured its been weeks of relentless sell side pressure.
We have lost key weekly and daily supports, which doesn't help the bullish case.
There is 1 small positive on the daily chart: a positive RSI bullish divergence.
Understanding how this commodity works, one should be prepared for a downside case of $1.60. Its not a guarantee but a possibility.
The Nat gas resource stocks are mixed and showing sings of volume accumulation.
I'm watching the $1.95 Gap fill on Nat Gas very closely. If the bulls defend that area we could rally quickly.
Keep your eye om the "Death Cross" signal, usually a buy signal for a short term bounce.
Natural Gas: Will the bulls ever come back? Another sell side day for nat gas...what else is new?
back to the same technical support trend line for Nat gas. technically this is support. If this trend line holds we will see an epic bounce IMO.
If we break this are we could be testing $1.90.
I believe that this is still a great risk to reward to accumulate for the long term, while understanding there could still be another 20% down if we break this level...so HODL accordingly.
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Completing the eight-wave cycleGreetings,
Dear friends, I hope you are well and have a week full of successful and profitable transactions.
I haven't been in the service of the companions on the Trading View platform for a few weeks because I was completing an educational resource. I hope I can make up for my absence from now on, but if I see a valuable market, I will share it with you.
The text of my analysis:
Regarding his view of the natural gas market, he has advanced five waves upwards, which has formed an impulse pattern, followed by a simple sharp zigzag pattern consisting of three waves, and wave C has advanced more than 161.8%. However, based on my personal experience, I have come across such corrections in several markets, which correct very deeply.
Anyway, I am currently waiting for the trend to exit the channel until the price of the aggressive idea passes, and definitely after the formation of each wave, a corrective pattern should be formed, and the trend should continue.
Completing the eight-wave cycle.
Note: I am an analyst in the world of principle wave, who has entered the fourth year of my work experience, and I am developing an analytical idea. In financial markets, there is no 100% certainty due to the complexity of different patterns that can change. However, I do my best to back up every analysis I share with you guys with everything I've learned so far.
A brief explanation of the three fundamental laws of the wave principle:
1. The second wave should never go beyond the beginning of the first wave.
2. The third wave should never be the shortest wave between waves 1, 3, and 5.
3. The fourth wave must never enter the territory of the first wave.
Ralph Nelson Elliott was the founder of this theory, and when asked about his view of the market, he always referred to five waves in the direction of a larger trend and three waves against the direction it was taking. After completing an eight-wave cycle, a larger cycle is formed in the future, simply.
May his memory be cherished, and may his soul rest in the shelter of God Almighty and the eternal world.
I am attaching the analysis of this market that I shared with you earlier to this current analysis.
The last word of my analysis text is repetitive, except to explain the current analysis because I also trade in the financial markets and I am active in my social networks, and I work hard to improve my skills in analysis and trading to reach my goal.
I apologize for repeating the text.
I welcome suggestions and criticisms, and I will respond, but a logical reason is important to me.
Thank you for taking the time to review my analysis.
First of all, I wish good health and success to all my dear friends and colleagues.
Mr. Nobody
Natural Gas Poised for Seasonal Upswing Natural gas is entering a seasonal phase where the price is attempting to retest a previous demand area. This zone is significant as commercial traders begin to accumulate positions, signaling a potential opportunity for a long position. Our current approach is to identify the optimal reversal point to capitalize on this anticipated uptrend through the beginning of September.
As we monitor the market, our focus is on finding the best entry point at a discount price, ensuring a favorable risk-reward ratio. The demand area, which previously provided strong support, is a critical level. A successful retest and subsequent bounce from this zone could confirm a bullish reversal, making it an ideal point to enter long positions.
Commercial traders' actions are a key indicator in this scenario. Their accumulation of positions suggests confidence in the potential for natural gas prices to rise. This accumulation phase often precedes significant price movements, as these traders typically have access to more comprehensive market insights.
Historically, natural gas prices tend to exhibit seasonal patterns, with certain times of the year presenting more favorable conditions for price increases. The period leading up to September is traditionally strong for natural gas, driven by factors such as increased demand for cooling during the summer months and preparations for the upcoming winter heating season.
In conclusion, natural gas is showing promising signs of a seasonal uptrend, with commercial traders accumulating positions in a key demand area. Our strategy involves closely monitoring price movements to identify the best entry point for a long position. By leveraging the insights from commercial trader activities and historical seasonal patterns, we aim to capture the anticipated bullish momentum in natural gas prices leading up to September. Investors should stay vigilant and ready to act as the market presents these opportunities.
✅ Please share your thoughts about NG in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
Natural Gas Momentum ShiftWatch how TrendCloud lines up this momentum shift on Natural Gas.
4 hour chart: Trend and Momentum are both red, and breaking structure to the downside.
1 hour chart: Trend is down, so TrendCloud turns everything red and shows you a crossover signal. CCI is also below -100
15 min chart: TrendCloud Entry signals start flashing. At this point you can take the trade.
Follow along for more setups with TrendCloud by clicking the link in my profile.
BOIL in strong downtrendBOIL is in a strong downtrend.
The daily chart has hit a new low
But the 1-hour chart has now become "extended"
Remember there are 5 waves in an average trend. Once the trend becomes extended, the price likes to break above the 50 SMA to "recalculate" and continue or "recalculate" and reverse.
We love both right? The question becomes, which direction will the market choose?
No one knows. So all you can do is trade your strategy off of the current patterns and information that you see.
That's why 'risk management" is so important. Use 1% of your current total account value on each trade.
That's formula I use in my trade plan and it has served me well.
Link in profile :)
That's all you can do.
Natural gas...time to buy? Natural gas just keeps bleeding lower.
Despite the oversold intra day condition this commodity is finding no support.
Natural gas equities are mixed right now, but are definitely showing some signs of accumulation.
We think the next 2 support zones on Nat gas if we lose this critical area are $2.21 & $2.00
Beware Nat gas tends to overshoot.
This trendline we are holding right now connects through major lows going back to 2020.
Historically Warm Weather to Support Natural Gas PricesAfter the second quarter relief rally and the five-month peak, Natural Gas registered a four-week decline. This has shifted bias to the downside again, creating scope for further losses towards 1.940. However, a look at the daily chart shows that NGAS tries to react at the lower border of the Ichimoku Cloud. Furthermore, a Golden Cross (EMA50 crossing above the EMA200) has been formed, which is often viewed as a precursor of sustained growth.
This technical formation compliments the favorable fundamentals, as demand is set to increase this year, while key drillers lower their activity. Although the world shifts to renewables, Natural Gas is seen a bridge fuel facilitating this transition. Furthermore, it is heavily used in electricity generation, being the top source in the US and No2 globally. June was the thirteenth straight month of record high temperatures according to Copernicus, which can provide another tailwind for energy demand during the summer months. This in turn can increase Natural gas consumption and support prices.
As a result, NGAS can reclaim the EMA200 that would give control to the bulls and the ability to push for the June peak (3.164). The upside contains multiple technical roadblocks though and there are risks to the upbeat supply-demand dynamics.
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Past Performance is not an indicator of future results.
Natural Gas Approaching Seasonal Growth PhaseNatural Gas is entering a period where its price tends to grow exponentially until October. We have identified a potential Demand area with a trigger price at $2.20. Given the favorable conditions and the seasonality trend, we see an opportunity for a Buy Limit order. With a reward potential of 2X, this setup offers a promising risk-to-reward ratio, making it a compelling buy opportunity.
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