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Naturalgasanalysis

Natural gas: head and shoulders top pattern; $5 in sight?US natural gas prices have formed a head and shoulders top pattern, which may signal a weakening of the current major bullish trend and a subsequent reversal into a bearish one. The left shoulder coincided with the relative highs at the end of July at $9.30/MMbtu, a level that was then followed by a pullback to $7.53 (August 8) prior to the beginning of a new rally toward the head at nearly $10. The right shoulder was formed by the decline from $9.97 to $7.80, followed by a brief rebound at $9.22 and another decline to the current $7.86. Although a brief breakdown was seen in the September 19 session, natural gas is now testing the neckline of the head and shoulders pattern. If confirmed, we could see a return to the level of $5.30, which were hit in early July 2022. Additional bearish technical signals for the price of US natural gas include the MACD oscillator dipping below the zero line and the RSI slightly pointing south. Idea written by Piero Cingari, forex and commodity analyst at Capital.com
CAPITALCOM:NATURALGAS
by Capitalcom
1
NatGas: Chin the Bar! 💪NatGas is showing its sporty side and is chinning the bar at the resistance at $8.403. Soon, it should be warmed up enough to vault into the turquoise zone between $8.544 and $9.307, where it should then finish wave (iv) in turquoise. Afterwards, NatGas should jump below the support at $7.532 to complete wave (v) in turquoise as well as wave (2) in white before moving southwards again. Alternatively, there is a 28% chance that NatGas could do a somersault directly above the resistance at $10.028.
NYMEX:NG1!
by MarketIntel
NATURAL GAS - 240 MINS CHARTThe Structure looks good to us, waiting for this instrument to correct and then give us these opportunities as shown on this instrument (Price Chart). Note: its my view only and its for educational purpose only. only who has got knowledge in this strategy will understand what to be done on this setup. its purely based on my technical analysis only (strategies). we don't focus on the short term moves, we look for only for Bullish or Bearish Impulsive moves on the setups after a good price action is formed as per the strategy. we never get into corrective moves. because it will test our patience and also it will be a bullish or a bearish trap. and try trade the big moves. we do not get into bullish or bearish traps. we anticipate and get into only big bullish or bearish moves (Impulsive moves). Just ride the bullish or bearish impulsive move. Learn & Know the Complete Market Cycle. buy low and sell high concept. buy at cheaper price and sell at expensive price. Keep it simple, keep it Unique. please keep your comments useful & respectful. Thanks for your support....
NShort
by Tradelikemee
Natural Gas - Weekly Trading Idea Hello guys, keep your eyes on Natural Gas; Technically by looking at the charts the market is overbought and soon the Sellers will take control and as Fundamentals are concern the sanctions on Iran will be soon lifted and if it will happen then Iran has biggest reserves of OIL & GAS this news will make Panic SELL you should keep your eyes open for the great opportunity. *** This is not any FINANCIAL Advice *** only my Trading Plan / Analysis
NShort
by MHasnain
EUR/USD analysis: Euro to fall below parity on EU gas crisis?Europe's wholesale natural gas price (Dutch Title Transfer Facility TTF ) rose to levels not seen since the aftermath of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, bolstered by a mixture of continuing supply disruptions from Russia and soaring demand for power generation in the midst of persistent heatwaves across Europe. Gazprom ( GAZP ) announced that European gas prices could increase by 60% this winter, as the company's exports and production continue to fall as a result of Western sanctions. From a macro standpoint, the European gas crisis is wreaking havoc on the economy of the Eurozone and this effect has already been quite visible on the EUR/USD trend in 2022. European and American natural gas price differentials have been widening to their all-time highs, and the EUR/USD currency pair is just 1.7% far from hitting parity again. EUR/USD fundamental analysis: EU/US gas price spread plays a key role According to the most recent NYMEX/CME Group data, US Henry Hub spot prices are currently trading at a $57/MMbtu discount ( THD ) relative to Europe's Dutch TTF benchmark as of mid-August 2022. The link between EUR/USD and Henry Hub-TTF spread has increased significantly over the course of the summer, with the rolling 90-day correlation coefficient rising to 0.82. This is basically telling us that the lower US natural gas prices trade compared to the European Dutch TFF prices, the stronger the downward pressure on the EUR/USD pair. Along with the economic growth and interest rate disparities between the two regions, the more severe natural gas crisis that Europe is experiencing compared to the United States is now a key macro factor affecting the EUR/USD exchange rate. EUR/USD forecasts: The pair could fall below parity if EU/US gas spread widens further If the European gas crisis worsens in the coming months, the price differential between EU Dutch TTF and US Henry Hub natural gas could widen further, which would likely cause the EUR/USD pair to break decisively below the parity threshold. A de-escalation in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, coupled with a decline in the price of Dutch TTF gas, will be a key factor in preventing a further depreciation of the single currency. However, this second scenario appears much less likely. Idea written by Piero Cingari, forex and commodity analyst at Capital.com
by Capitalcom
1
NatGas: Energizer Bunny 🐰🔋🔋A certain fondness for pink is not the only thing, NatGas and the marketing mascot have in common. Both, NatGas and the mechanical toy rabbit, are also full of energy. NatGas has steadily been climbing upwards from the pink zone between $7.435 and $8.320 and has already finished wave (i) as well as wave (ii) in turquoise. Now, we expect it to rise above the resistance at $9.600, heading for the turquoise zone between $10.796 and $11.327 to complete wave (iii) in turquoise. There remains a 35% chance, though, that NatGas could lose steam and could decide to make a detour below the support at $6.898 first before resuming the ascent.
NYMEX:NG1!
by MarketIntel
Natural gas: Will Russia's supply cuts lead to new price highs?The price of natural gas has been going up and down like a roller coaster over the past month. After suffering a severe 45% drop between June 8 and early July, US Henry Hub prices have risen nearly 80% since July 7, recouping all the losses. What's going on in the natural gas market? Russia is squeezing gas supplies to Europe via the NordStream (NS1) pipeline, pushing EU Dutch TTF prices above €190/MWh, approaching the record high reached in March. Gazprom , the Russian energy giant, has announced that it will reduce NS1 daily flow to 33 million cubic metres, or about 20% of its capacity, citing problems with the pipeline's turbines. This puts at risk the region's goal of filling 80% of its storage capacity before winter. According to recent Bruegel calculations, Europe may run out of gas in storage this winter if demand is not reduced. Such supply concerns prompted EU members to sign an agreement to cut their gas consumption by 15% over the next six months. The worsening of the European gas crisis prompted a rush for supplies from other major producers, such as gas LNG from the United States and JKM from Asia. These markets are near full capacity for gas exports to Europe, so prices are rising and we may not have seen the peak yet. From a technical standpoint, price momentum is pushing upward. Nine of the most recent ten sessions ended in the green, a streak that hadn't been seen since late March/early April 2022. The RSI is now approaching overbought territory (70), but it may still have room to decisively break through this level. The June bearish divergence thesis, based on rising prices/falling RSI, is now invalidated, showing that fundamental factors dominate technical considerations in the current natural gas market.
CAPITALCOM:NATURALGAS
by Capitalcom
US natural gas: Bearish clouds ahead?Henry Hub ( US natural gas ) prices have fallen 25% from their peak of $9.64 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) hit in June, as the fire at Freeport LNG’s natural gas liquefaction plant reduced U.S. export capacity by an estimated 2.0 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) or approximately 15% of annual volumes. The major driver behind the spectacular rise in US natural gas prices had been a rise in price-premium gas shipments to Europe, which was suffering from a drop in Russian supply. As a complete cutoff of Russian gas supply to Europe looms, this should theoretically put upward pressure on US natural gas prices. In practise, however, the US Freeport LNG’s facility is not scheduled to resume at full capacity until 2023, thus pricing pressures owing to greater exports to Europe can no longer occur as they did previously. And the market has already factored this in. On top of this, there is also the risk of recession in the US looming on gas prices. US Natural Gas Technical analysis From a technical perspective, US natural gas prices may have entered a trend reversal phase following the RSI bearish divergence in June, when oscillator values fell from overbought levels as prices reached new highs. This suggested that the bulls’ strength had progressively diminished, allowing the bears to take over. In the last three trading sessions, the 50-day moving average level of $7.5 has acted as a strong resistance for US gas prices. This might pave the way for a price pullback towards the $6.5 support level. A bullish breakout over $7.5 would invalidate the thesis and trigger a test of the psychological $8 mark.
Editors' picks
CAPITALCOM:NATURALGAS
by Capitalcom
4
NatGas: Pretty in PinkNatGas would look really pretty in pink, wouldn’t it? Therefore, it should proceed to move downwards to complete wave ii in pink in the upper pink zone between $6.055 and $5.325. Afterwards, it should turn around and climb upwards, crossing the resistance at $6.786 and heading for the next one at $8.118. There is a 33% chance, though, that NatGas could acquire taste for more pink, drop below the support at $5.325 and into the lower pink zone between $4.835 and $4.205.
NYMEX:NG1!
by MarketIntel
Natural gas tumbles to $5.5 as stockpiles rise: RSI oversoldUS NATURAL GAS prices plunged by 13% to $5.5/MMBtu, the lowest level since March, as a result of investors' unfavourable reactions to recent EIA data that revealed a larger-than-expected storage build. Last week, utilities in the United States added 82 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas to storage, well beyond analysts' projections of 74 bcf. NATURAL GAS prices in the United States are now 43% lower than their June 8 highs. The drop earlier this month was triggered by an accident at the Freeport LNG facility in Texas, which is one of the largest US export plants producing about 2 billion cubic feet per day of liquefied natural gas, or roughly 16% of US annual LNG export capacity. Before June, NATURAL GAS prices skyrocketed owing to increasing export volumes at premium rates to Europe, as European countries weaned themselves off Russian supplies. Technically, the 14-day RSI indicator has entered the oversold zone for the first time since December 2021. This could be an indication that the bearish momentum is starting to hit extreme levels, and buyers could start reappearing on the dip. However, in the absence of a complete capacity recovery in the United States, which is not expected by the end of the year, the potential of shipping LNG gas from the United States to Europe at a premium rate is jeopardised, and US NATURAL GAS prices are unlikely to recapture prior highs in the short term. Idea written by Piero Cingari, forex and commodities analyst at Capital.com
CAPITALCOM:NATURALGAS
by Capitalcom
US Natural Gas Had Its Worst Day Since 2018: RSI falls Below 50US natural gas prices posted their worst daily performance since mid-November 2018 today, plummeting 17% to $7.2/MMBtu, as of writing, after Freeport LNG announced early Tuesday morning that it does not expect the export facility to resume full plant operations until late 2022 due to the explosion occurred on June 8. The Freeport LNG facility has a production of 2 billion cubic feet per day, or around 16% of US LNG export capability, and has been operating at near full capacity in recent months. The disruption at one of the largest US liquefied natural gas export terminals will put a severe upward pressure on European gas prices ( Dutch TTF ), which have been falling in recent months as Europe has significantly increased its liquified natural gas imports from the United States. Technically, US natural gas prices are now testing the 2022 bullish trendline, with the momentum indicator (14-day RSI) dropping to 38, the lowest level since the start of the year. A breach below the psychological threshold of $7/MMBtu would open the door for a bearish assault to the nearest support in the 6.50 zone (lows of April 25 and May 10).
CAPITALCOM:NATURALGAS
by Capitalcom
3
NatGas: LowIt hit the floor (it hit the floor) Next thing you know NatGas got low, low, low, low, low, low, low, low Okay, these aren’t exactly the lyrics of Flo Rida’s “Low”, but they are fitting, nonetheless, for we expect NatGas to move further downwards below the support at $7.524. Just before the next support at $6.466, though, NatGas should turn around and head upwards, crossing $7.524 and even the resistance at $9.60. However, there is a 38% chance that NatGas doesn’t listen to Flo Rida’s song. Instead, it could climb directly above the resistance at $9.60 and subsequently rise into the blue zone between $11.298 and $12.116.
NYMEX:NG1!
by MarketIntel
NatGas: GeyserLike a geyser, NatGas is spouting upwards from the white zone between $6.255 and $6.684. We expect it to have enough drive to reach the resistance at $8.065 soon. There, it should gain some more momentum to make it into the orange zone between $8.559 and $9.241, where wave (5) in white as well as wave iii in orange should end. However, there is a 42% chance that NatGas could rebound off the line at $8.065 and subsequently drop below $6.466. In that case, it should fall into the green zone between $5.687 and $4.939 first before rising back above $6.466 and further toward $8.065.
NYMEX:NG1!Long
by MarketIntel
1
8$ NATURAL GAS PER GALLON COMMING???Fundamentals; Russian President Vladimir Putin is demanding foreign buyers pay for Russian gas in roubles from Friday or else have their supplies cut, a move European capitals rejected and which Germany said amounted to "blackmail". Putin's decree on Thursday leaves Europe facing the prospect of losing more than a third of its gas supply. Germany, the most heavily reliant on Russia, has already activated an emergency plan that could lead to rationing in Europe's biggest economy. Western companies and governments have rejected any move to change their gas supply contracts to another payment currency. Most European buyers use euros. Executives say it would take months or longer to renegotiate terms. Payment in roubles would also blunt the impact of Western curbs on Moscow's access to its foreign exchange reserves. Meanwhile, European states have been racing to secure alternative supplies, but with the global market already tight, they have few options. The United States has offered more of its liquefied natural gas (LNG) but not enough to replace Russia. European gas prices have rocketed higher on mounting tension with Russia raising the risk of recession. Companies, including makers of steel and chemicals, have been forced to curtail production British and Dutch gas prices , were up 4% to 5% after Putin's announcement. European companies had little or no immediate comment on the Russian announcement or on their contracts with Gazprom (GAZP.MM), which has a monopoly on Russian gas exports by pipeline. Poland's PGNiG (PGN.WA) said it remained in contact with Gazprom with which it has a long-term contract that expires at the end of this year, but it said it would not discuss details. Italian energy firm Eni (ENI.MI), another major European buyer of Russian gas, also had no comment. It bought around 22.5 bcm of Russian gas in 2020. Its contracts with Gazprom expire in 2035. Danish energy firm Orsted (ORSTED.CO), which has a long-term take-or-pay contract with Gazprom, said it was waiting to hear from the Russian firm and declined to comment further. Uniper (UN01.DE) and EnBW's (EBKG.DE) VNG (VNG.UL), two major German buyers of Russian gas, declined to comment, while RWE (RWEG.DE) did not immediately respond. Technical ; Okay so I'm a buyer now how would i enter the market and and what are the technical reasons that would confirm my bias As we can see that on the higher time frame the market has reached an old highs And retraced and made a higher high in confluence with Fibonacci Retracement and if we zoom out to a MONTHLY TIME FRAME ; that we can see a significant change in overall market structure is broken to see this shift see it in terms of a broken wedge pattern starting from dec,1,2009 to 1 oct 2021 the market has recently retested that zone at 3.600 with a fib 0.618 + confluence of retest of major resistance turned support 3.600. 4 HOUR TIME FRAME ; we can see that the market is making higher highs and higher lows with a standard deviation 0.100 points give or take and average of 0.69 points HEADING TO 8.500 THIS IS GENERAL OVERVIEW OF MY PRESPECTIVE For trend analysis i use quantitative analysis AND ENTRY with help of highly proficient algorithms CONCLUSION i understand that 8$ per gallon gas ideas seems far fetched but all i see right now that the market is pricing in something it could be the reasons above or any other reason but this is what i this is going to happen IF anything happens that changes the fundamentals of this idea, i will update. please note that this is not financial advice. do your own research and use this information as conformational bias on top of your own analysis. like for support!!!!
NLong
by zeyankhan1318
6
NATURAL GAS LONGS ACTIVE 📉📉📉📉 Expecting bullish price action on NATURAL GAS as price is in a clear bullish market strucutre on D1/H4 timeframe, price made a breakout above the weekly highs retraced back into the H4 imbalance testing the weekly highs and clearly reject from that area. I think we will see 6.0 ASAP. From a market seasonality standpoint we are very bullish as naturalgas should rise in this period of the year + the problems between the Russian Federation and European Union about the gas delivery in the Europe. What do you think ? Where we go next ?
NLong
by AnonimFXRO
2
NatGas: Like a Balloon🎈Like a balloon, NatGas is floating further and further upwards from the support at $3.536. Although every now and then, there may be some gusts of wind temporarily disrupting the upwards surge, we expect that NatGas’s general tendency is to rise higher. However, as it is usually the case with balloons, they can lose air or burst. Accordingly, there is still a 45% chance that NatGas could fall below $3.536 and make a detour through the magenta zone between $3.360 and $1.994 before flying upwards again.
NYMEX:NG1!Long
by MarketIntel