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Naturalgasforcast

NATGAS Could Hit $2.15 as Bears Tighten GripFxNews —The primary trend for NATGAS should be considered bearish, as the price is in a bearish flag pattern. The downtrend is likely to resume if NATGAS bears close and stabilize the price below the 23.6% Fibonacci level, supported by the middle line of the Bollinger Band. In this scenario, the next bearish target could be $2.24, followed by $2.15. Please note that the bearish outlook would be invalidated if NATGAS exceeds the 38.2% Fibonacci level at $2.38.
PEPPERSTONE:NATGASShort
by FxNews-me
Natural Gas Further DeclinesTraders are currently reducing natural gas losses, but the outlook for the summer is unimpressive, combined with technical factors, which suggests the possibility of further declines in the future. Natural gas is trading on the weakside of $2.432 (R1), making it new resistance. Overcoming this level will indicate the return of buyers with $2.638 (R2) the next target. A sustained move under $2.432 (R1) will signal the presence of sellers. If this generates enough downside momentum then look for the selling to possibly extend into $2.168 (Pivot), followed by $1.962 (S1) S1 – $1.962 R1 – $2.432 S2 – $1.698 R2 – $2.638 S3 – $1.286 R3 – $2.902 Bearish Weather Continues The current weather patterns are unfavorable for natural gas prices, as systems in the southern US are preventing widespread high temperatures. This bearish weather is expected to continue until hotter patterns arrive, which is projected to be around June 6-10. Although natural gas prices are increasing on Wednesday, it is not being influenced by the weather. During the May 24-30 period, the US will experience active weather systems with showers, thunderstorms, and temperatures ranging from the 60s to 80s, except for hotter conditions in the Southwest deserts and South Texas reaching the 90s. The Great Lakes and Northeast regions will have cooler-than-normal temperatures, with overnight lows dropping into the upper 30s and 40s. This may result in a slight increase in heating demand. Canadian Gas Exports to U.S. Normalize Canadian natural gas exports to the United States have returned to normal levels following disruptions caused by wildfires in Alberta and other western provinces. This has led to a significant drop in U.S. gas futures, as Canada supplies around 8% of the gas consumed or exported by the U.S. In the past weeks, gas flows from Canada averaged 7.2 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd), lower than the year’s average of 8.3 bcfd. However, the amount of gas exported from Canada to the U.S. is expected to remain near a three-week high of 8.1 bcfd. The wildfires had forced Canadian producers to cut exports to a low of 6.4 bcfd. Overall, the return to normal gas flows from Canada has impacted gas prices and market dynamics in the U.S. Supply Dynamics Gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states reached 101.5 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in May, surpassing April’s record of 101.4 bcfd. Additionally, gas exports from Canada to the United States were expected to rise to 8.2 bcfd, a near three-week high. Demand Dynamics Despite predictions of slightly increased gas demand in the next two weeks, particularly due to low wind power generation, gas futures still experienced a decline. The proportion of U.S. power generated by wind dropped to 7% compared to the previous week’s high of 17%. This decline in wind power led to an increase in gas consumption for electricity generation, particularly in Texas. In the short term, the outlook for natural gas is bearish. The decrease in wind power generation has resulted in higher gas usage for electricity production, reducing the available supply for storage. Meteorologists project mostly normal weather conditions in the Lower 48 states, except for some colder-than-normal days from May 24-28. Refinitiv forecasts a slight decrease in U.S. gas demand, including exports, from 90.4 bcfd to 89.8 bcfd next week, with revised higher forecasts compared to the previous day’s outlook. These factors contribute to the bearish sentiment in the market.
CAPITALCOM:NATURALGASShort
by DaveBrascoFX
5
NatGas: Athletic 👟💪🎾NatGas has been indulging in athletic activities – quite in accordance with its temperament. Since the end of wave ii in pink, NatGas has been exercising on the stairwalker, has been playing squash in the green trend channel and has been doing some aerobic. Next, it should proceed with trampolining on the blue zone between $5.554 and $4.684 to finish wave iii and iv in pink and then drop onto the pink mattress between $5.156 and $4.455 to complete wave v in pink, which also includes concluding the overarching downwards movement in the course of wave 2 in green. There is a 28% chance, though, that NastGas could skip the blue as well as the pink zone and lift itself directly above the resistance at $8.123.
NYMEX:NG1!
by MarketIntel
6
NatGas: Chin the Bar! 💪NatGas is showing its sporty side and is chinning the bar at the resistance at $8.403. Soon, it should be warmed up enough to vault into the turquoise zone between $8.544 and $9.307, where it should then finish wave (iv) in turquoise. Afterwards, NatGas should jump below the support at $7.532 to complete wave (v) in turquoise as well as wave (2) in white before moving southwards again. Alternatively, there is a 28% chance that NatGas could do a somersault directly above the resistance at $10.028.
NYMEX:NG1!
by MarketIntel
NATURAL GAS - 240 MINS CHARTThe Structure looks good to us, waiting for the this to correct and then give us these opportunities as shown on this instrument (chart). Note: its my view only and its for educational purpose only. only who has got knowledge in this strategy will understand what to be done on this setup. its purely based on my technical analysis only (strategies). we don't focus on the short term moves, we look for only for Bullish or Bearish Impulsive moves on the setups after a good price action is formed as per the strategy. we never get into corrective moves. because it will test our patience and also it will be a bullish or a bearish trap. we do not get into bullish or bearish traps. we anticipate and get into only big bullish or bearish moves (Impulsive moves). Just ride the bullish or bearish impulsive move. Learn & Know the Complete Market Cycle. buy low and sell high concept. buy at cheaper price and sell at expensive price. Keep it simple, keep it Unique. please keep your comments useful & respectful. Thanks for your support....
NShort
by Tradelikemee
Natural Gas - Weekly Trading Idea Hello guys, keep your eyes on Natural Gas; Technically by looking at the charts the market is overbought and soon the Sellers will take control and as Fundamentals are concern the sanctions on Iran will be soon lifted and if it will happen then Iran has biggest reserves of OIL & GAS this news will make Panic SELL you should keep your eyes open for the great opportunity. *** This is not any FINANCIAL Advice *** only my Trading Plan / Analysis
NShort
by MHasnain
NatGas: Energizer Bunny 🐰🔋🔋A certain fondness for pink is not the only thing, NatGas and the marketing mascot have in common. Both, NatGas and the mechanical toy rabbit, are also full of energy. NatGas has steadily been climbing upwards from the pink zone between $7.435 and $8.320 and has already finished wave (i) as well as wave (ii) in turquoise. Now, we expect it to rise above the resistance at $9.600, heading for the turquoise zone between $10.796 and $11.327 to complete wave (iii) in turquoise. There remains a 35% chance, though, that NatGas could lose steam and could decide to make a detour below the support at $6.898 first before resuming the ascent.
NYMEX:NG1!
by MarketIntel
Natural gas: Will Russia's supply cuts lead to new price highs?The price of natural gas has been going up and down like a roller coaster over the past month. After suffering a severe 45% drop between June 8 and early July, US Henry Hub prices have risen nearly 80% since July 7, recouping all the losses. What's going on in the natural gas market? Russia is squeezing gas supplies to Europe via the NordStream (NS1) pipeline, pushing EU Dutch TTF prices above €190/MWh, approaching the record high reached in March. Gazprom , the Russian energy giant, has announced that it will reduce NS1 daily flow to 33 million cubic metres, or about 20% of its capacity, citing problems with the pipeline's turbines. This puts at risk the region's goal of filling 80% of its storage capacity before winter. According to recent Bruegel calculations, Europe may run out of gas in storage this winter if demand is not reduced. Such supply concerns prompted EU members to sign an agreement to cut their gas consumption by 15% over the next six months. The worsening of the European gas crisis prompted a rush for supplies from other major producers, such as gas LNG from the United States and JKM from Asia. These markets are near full capacity for gas exports to Europe, so prices are rising and we may not have seen the peak yet. From a technical standpoint, price momentum is pushing upward. Nine of the most recent ten sessions ended in the green, a streak that hadn't been seen since late March/early April 2022. The RSI is now approaching overbought territory (70), but it may still have room to decisively break through this level. The June bearish divergence thesis, based on rising prices/falling RSI, is now invalidated, showing that fundamental factors dominate technical considerations in the current natural gas market.
CAPITALCOM:NATURALGAS
by Capitalcom
NatGas: Pretty in PinkNatGas would look really pretty in pink, wouldn’t it? Therefore, it should proceed to move downwards to complete wave ii in pink in the upper pink zone between $6.055 and $5.325. Afterwards, it should turn around and climb upwards, crossing the resistance at $6.786 and heading for the next one at $8.118. There is a 33% chance, though, that NatGas could acquire taste for more pink, drop below the support at $5.325 and into the lower pink zone between $4.835 and $4.205.
NYMEX:NG1!
by MarketIntel
Natural gas tumbles to $5.5 as stockpiles rise: RSI oversoldUS NATURAL GAS prices plunged by 13% to $5.5/MMBtu, the lowest level since March, as a result of investors' unfavourable reactions to recent EIA data that revealed a larger-than-expected storage build. Last week, utilities in the United States added 82 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas to storage, well beyond analysts' projections of 74 bcf. NATURAL GAS prices in the United States are now 43% lower than their June 8 highs. The drop earlier this month was triggered by an accident at the Freeport LNG facility in Texas, which is one of the largest US export plants producing about 2 billion cubic feet per day of liquefied natural gas, or roughly 16% of US annual LNG export capacity. Before June, NATURAL GAS prices skyrocketed owing to increasing export volumes at premium rates to Europe, as European countries weaned themselves off Russian supplies. Technically, the 14-day RSI indicator has entered the oversold zone for the first time since December 2021. This could be an indication that the bearish momentum is starting to hit extreme levels, and buyers could start reappearing on the dip. However, in the absence of a complete capacity recovery in the United States, which is not expected by the end of the year, the potential of shipping LNG gas from the United States to Europe at a premium rate is jeopardised, and US NATURAL GAS prices are unlikely to recapture prior highs in the short term. Idea written by Piero Cingari, forex and commodities analyst at Capital.com
CAPITALCOM:NATURALGAS
by Capitalcom
NatGas: LowIt hit the floor (it hit the floor) Next thing you know NatGas got low, low, low, low, low, low, low, low Okay, these aren’t exactly the lyrics of Flo Rida’s “Low”, but they are fitting, nonetheless, for we expect NatGas to move further downwards below the support at $7.524. Just before the next support at $6.466, though, NatGas should turn around and head upwards, crossing $7.524 and even the resistance at $9.60. However, there is a 38% chance that NatGas doesn’t listen to Flo Rida’s song. Instead, it could climb directly above the resistance at $9.60 and subsequently rise into the blue zone between $11.298 and $12.116.
NYMEX:NG1!
by MarketIntel
NatGas: GeyserLike a geyser, NatGas is spouting upwards from the white zone between $6.255 and $6.684. We expect it to have enough drive to reach the resistance at $8.065 soon. There, it should gain some more momentum to make it into the orange zone between $8.559 and $9.241, where wave (5) in white as well as wave iii in orange should end. However, there is a 42% chance that NatGas could rebound off the line at $8.065 and subsequently drop below $6.466. In that case, it should fall into the green zone between $5.687 and $4.939 first before rising back above $6.466 and further toward $8.065.
NYMEX:NG1!Long
by MarketIntel
1
8$ NATURAL GAS PER GALLON COMMING???Fundamentals; Russian President Vladimir Putin is demanding foreign buyers pay for Russian gas in roubles from Friday or else have their supplies cut, a move European capitals rejected and which Germany said amounted to "blackmail". Putin's decree on Thursday leaves Europe facing the prospect of losing more than a third of its gas supply. Germany, the most heavily reliant on Russia, has already activated an emergency plan that could lead to rationing in Europe's biggest economy. Western companies and governments have rejected any move to change their gas supply contracts to another payment currency. Most European buyers use euros. Executives say it would take months or longer to renegotiate terms. Payment in roubles would also blunt the impact of Western curbs on Moscow's access to its foreign exchange reserves. Meanwhile, European states have been racing to secure alternative supplies, but with the global market already tight, they have few options. The United States has offered more of its liquefied natural gas (LNG) but not enough to replace Russia. European gas prices have rocketed higher on mounting tension with Russia raising the risk of recession. Companies, including makers of steel and chemicals, have been forced to curtail production British and Dutch gas prices , were up 4% to 5% after Putin's announcement. European companies had little or no immediate comment on the Russian announcement or on their contracts with Gazprom (GAZP.MM), which has a monopoly on Russian gas exports by pipeline. Poland's PGNiG (PGN.WA) said it remained in contact with Gazprom with which it has a long-term contract that expires at the end of this year, but it said it would not discuss details. Italian energy firm Eni (ENI.MI), another major European buyer of Russian gas, also had no comment. It bought around 22.5 bcm of Russian gas in 2020. Its contracts with Gazprom expire in 2035. Danish energy firm Orsted (ORSTED.CO), which has a long-term take-or-pay contract with Gazprom, said it was waiting to hear from the Russian firm and declined to comment further. Uniper (UN01.DE) and EnBW's (EBKG.DE) VNG (VNG.UL), two major German buyers of Russian gas, declined to comment, while RWE (RWEG.DE) did not immediately respond. Technical ; Okay so I'm a buyer now how would i enter the market and and what are the technical reasons that would confirm my bias As we can see that on the higher time frame the market has reached an old highs And retraced and made a higher high in confluence with Fibonacci Retracement and if we zoom out to a MONTHLY TIME FRAME ; that we can see a significant change in overall market structure is broken to see this shift see it in terms of a broken wedge pattern starting from dec,1,2009 to 1 oct 2021 the market has recently retested that zone at 3.600 with a fib 0.618 + confluence of retest of major resistance turned support 3.600. 4 HOUR TIME FRAME ; we can see that the market is making higher highs and higher lows with a standard deviation 0.100 points give or take and average of 0.69 points HEADING TO 8.500 THIS IS GENERAL OVERVIEW OF MY PRESPECTIVE For trend analysis i use quantitative analysis AND ENTRY with help of highly proficient algorithms CONCLUSION i understand that 8$ per gallon gas ideas seems far fetched but all i see right now that the market is pricing in something it could be the reasons above or any other reason but this is what i this is going to happen IF anything happens that changes the fundamentals of this idea, i will update. please note that this is not financial advice. do your own research and use this information as conformational bias on top of your own analysis. like for support!!!!
NLong
by zeyankhan1318
6