Natural Gas Hits Overbought as $2.68 Critical ResistanceFxNews— U.S. Natural Gas tests $2.68 resistance at the 78.6% Fibonacci level with signs of overbought conditions.
A consolidation toward the bullish fair value gap area at 2.55 could be on the horizon. This level would provide a decent bid to join the bull market.
Article: fxnews.me
Naturalgasideas
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NATGAS Faces Major Resistance with Middle East CalmFxNews —U.S. Natural Gas is testing the 38.2% critical resistance level at $2.38. Meanwhile, the Stochastic Oscillator warns traders that N ATGAS is overpriced in the short term.
From a technical perspective, a new bearish wave could be on the horizon if $2.38 holds. In this scenario, the bears' initial target could be $2.28, the 23.6% Fibonacci support level.
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Natgas: More pressure! 💪You know this one?
Pascal: “Hurry up! Get a move on! We really need to get going!”
- “Whoa, that’s a lot of pressure for just one Pascal…!”
Okay okay, bad jokes aside, Natgas does need a bit more pressure to rise from the compound consisting of the white zone between $1.880 and $3.436, the blue zone between $2.407 and $3.277 and the pink zone between $2.573 and $3.439. Above this conglomerate, it should finish wave iv in pink before turning downwards to develop wave 2 in green, which should then lead below the bottom of the white zone. Once this prominent low is established, Natgas should take off again. However, there is a 40% chance that Natgas could leave the white zone on the southern side, thus expanding wave alt.2 in green earlier already.
Recap of my trade for todayGood evening and good afternoon for American traders, I shared an idea where I said to buy NATURALGAS and I want to give a quick recap in order to encourage new traders to hold their trades for long time.
I have drawn on the chart all the points I added contracts after the pullback on the vwap which plays a strong support and resistance role in my trading system.
After seeing the configuration I follow to close, I kept waiting for several candles and added on more contract just for fun since I sat the SL right below the last contract I opened and kept watching for a while what will happen, then I noticed low volumes and I closed at the end of the small candle.
See you tomorrow in a new trade !
Natural gas: When will the bloodshed stop?Natural gas prices (US Henry Hub) plunged 20% in the first week of 2023, dropping below pre-Russian invasion of Ukraine levels and continuing losses seen in the fourth quarter of 2023.
The sell-off was violent, mimicking a falling knife pattern, with prices sliding back to levels seen towards the end of 2021 and the RSI returning to oversold territory. aPrices are now two standard deviations lower than the 20-day moving average, while the 50-day and 200-day moving averages trade 70% and 100% above, respectively, than current prices. The decline from the highs reached in August is around 65%.
It appears that the apocalypse has arrived for the asset class that rose by 100% in the first eleven months of 2022, outperforming all major markets, only to lose all of its profits in one month.
Extremely high temperatures in Europe and the United States over the winter season kept natural gas supplies plentiful, causing prices to fall. According to NOAA predictions, temperatures on the North American continent will be above normal again in January 2023.
Prices for natural gas have hit a support level not seen in over a year, suggesting that an abundance of pessimism is already included into market valuations. Below this level of support, the next level to watch is 3.02 (June 2021 lows) and the psychological 3.00 level. That would imply a 70% loss from the peak, which would support some dip buying given that the market has not yet fully resolved the 2022 geopolitical issues.
In this case, technical analysis suggests that further declines are likely to be contained; similar oversold RSI levels in the past have been followed by weeks of bullish price action, suggesting that this sharp decline may not be without some upward potential. Prices might return to 4.47, the level at which they traded on the day of Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
8$ NATURAL GAS PER GALLON COMMING???Fundamentals;
Russian President Vladimir Putin is demanding foreign buyers pay for Russian gas in roubles from Friday or else have their supplies cut, a move European capitals rejected and which Germany said amounted to "blackmail".
Putin's decree on Thursday leaves Europe facing the prospect of losing more than a third of its gas supply. Germany, the most heavily reliant on Russia, has already activated an emergency plan that could lead to rationing in Europe's biggest economy.
Western companies and governments have rejected any move to change their gas supply contracts to another payment currency. Most European buyers use euros. Executives say it would take months or longer to renegotiate terms.
Payment in roubles would also blunt the impact of Western curbs on Moscow's access to its foreign exchange reserves.
Meanwhile, European states have been racing to secure alternative supplies, but with the global market already tight, they have few options. The United States has offered more of its liquefied natural gas (LNG) but not enough to replace Russia.
European gas prices have rocketed higher on mounting tension with Russia raising the risk of recession. Companies, including makers of steel and chemicals, have been forced to curtail production
British and Dutch gas prices , were up 4% to 5% after Putin's announcement.
European companies had little or no immediate comment on the Russian announcement or on their contracts with Gazprom (GAZP.MM), which has a monopoly on Russian gas exports by pipeline.
Poland's PGNiG (PGN.WA) said it remained in contact with Gazprom with which it has a long-term contract that expires at the end of this year, but it said it would not discuss details.
Italian energy firm Eni (ENI.MI), another major European buyer of Russian gas, also had no comment. It bought around 22.5 bcm of Russian gas in 2020. Its contracts with Gazprom expire in 2035.
Danish energy firm Orsted (ORSTED.CO), which has a long-term take-or-pay contract with Gazprom, said it was waiting to hear from the Russian firm and declined to comment further.
Uniper (UN01.DE) and EnBW's (EBKG.DE) VNG (VNG.UL), two major German buyers of Russian gas, declined to comment, while RWE (RWEG.DE) did not immediately respond.
Technical ;
Okay so I'm a buyer now how would i enter the market and and what are the technical reasons that would confirm my bias As we can see that on the higher time frame the market
has reached an old highs And retraced and made a higher high in confluence with Fibonacci Retracement and if we zoom out to a
MONTHLY TIME FRAME ;
that we can see a significant change in overall market structure is broken to see this shift see it in terms of a broken wedge pattern starting from dec,1,2009 to 1 oct 2021
the market has recently retested that zone at 3.600 with a fib 0.618 + confluence of retest of major resistance turned support 3.600.
4 HOUR TIME FRAME ;
we can see that the market is making higher highs and higher lows with a standard deviation 0.100 points give or take and average of 0.69 points HEADING TO 8.500
THIS IS GENERAL OVERVIEW OF MY PRESPECTIVE
For trend analysis i use quantitative analysis AND ENTRY with help of highly proficient algorithms
CONCLUSION
i understand that 8$ per gallon gas ideas seems far fetched but all i see right now that the market is pricing in something it could be the reasons above or any other reason but this is what i this is going to happen
IF anything happens that changes the fundamentals of this idea, i will update.
please note that this is not financial advice. do your own research and use this information as conformational bias on top of your own analysis.
like for support!!!!
NATURAL GAS NEAR FUTURE ANALYSISTechnical Analysis Summary
Natural Gas
TREND ANALYSIS
We have 1 Downtrend in red color
We have 1 Uptrend in green color
Be careful trends need to be modified when broken to the new peaks(Downtrend) and lows (Uptrend).
FUTURE PREDICTIONS
We have many resistance and support levels that I have mentioned above.
I use thickness as an indicator of strength of levels (ONLY FOR VISUALS).
The Yellow SUPPORT and RESISTANCE Levels are levels already tested and are not an entry level I added it only for explanation purposes to show my strategy.
Good luck everyone, stay safe!
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NATURAL GAS GOING FOR FINAL RALLY OF 5th WaveNatural gas is going to make a new high for the 5th wave. We can buy it when it will come down for the correction.
#ElliottWave #NaturalGas