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Naturalgaslong

UNG can it rally from another monthly low ? LONGUNG on the daily chart has put in another monthly low similar to that of December after falling from a double top in early January. Gas production may be low. Storages may be depleting as demand is steady even in mild winters. The indicators show mild bullish divergence on the zero-lag MACD and volatility compression on the Fibonacci levels with low volumes overall and selling predominating. RSI levels are in the upper 40s and staady. I see this as a long trade setup targeting first 22 near to the midline of the Fib bands and then 24 at the Fib retracement level for the trend down from October into late December. The stop loss is about 2% at 19. R:r 2.6 : 0.4 or about 6.
AMEX:UNGLong
by AwesomeAvani
XNGUSD- Bollinger / TTM Squeeze for Breakout LONGThis 30 minute chart of spot natural gas demostrates the indicators triggering / signaling a big move as it gets underway. I missed the big move catching the two smaller scalpes earlier in the day. For me, this demonstrates the value of one or more of these indicators armed with an alert or notification to catch the move once it gets started. It also shows the value of detecting a Bollinger band width and volatility contraction before the release. Price action is showing a high tight flag pattern which could forecast a similar leg higher after sufficient consolidation to ti reach the consensus equilibrium of buyers and short sellers as to what the price should be. I will be one of those buyers adding again to my position which I expect to swing trade at least the rest of this week. For those already with good-sized positions, some may elect to sell some to take a partial profit. I am considering being more watchful of such a situation also realizing that a short squeeze could get underway since XNGUSD as been falling for sometime. Long-time shorts might decide this is the exit point to avoid further loss of unrealized profits. If they do so they play into the hand of new buyers and those holding. Buckle up, this could get interesting.
FXOPEN:XNGUSDLong
by AwesomeAvani
BOIL trends up continuation expected LONGBOIL is here on a 30 minute chart. It has reversed this week and ascended 13% with a double bottom at 13 and 13.25 forming a resing support trendline. Volumes changed from selling to buying. Price bounced off the ATR- stop loss in its pullback and now appears poised to break through the moving average channel and get support after that cross-over. I will take a long trade here with a stop loss of the pivot low of 14 while targeting the upper boundary of the Keltner channel at 15.25 for two-thirds the position with the remainder to run to try to reach 37 , the pivot high of January. As a leveraged instrument, BOIL is very volatile and needs extra care in the trade.
AMEX:BOILLong
by AwesomeAvani
BOIL ( Natural Gas Futures 3X leveraged) heats up LONGBOIL in the past month fell from a head and shoulders pattern on the 15 minute time frame into a trend down which leveled out into a double bottom. Supply is in a draw down right now as might be expected when gas production is diminished in the middle of winter while demand is rising. The Economics 101 expectation is rising prices on the futures market. The chart shows a Fibonacci retracement would take price from its current level to about 29 or about 20% upside if that level holds and more if prices can make a stronger more or if short positions or puts are forced to closed causing some buying pressure synergy. The RSI indicator confirms the reversal at the double bottom and adds a bit of insurance to the risk. Accordingly, I am expecting a 20% in the next 2-3 weeks. Target for 2/3 of the position is 29 while the other 1/3 ( short squeeze scenario) to run to a target of 33 which is the neckline of the H & S pattern. Taking a look at OTM call options striking $ 30-31 range. Additionally, I will watch the AI algo indicator for a Sell Signal and reassess the position at that time given its 90% accuracy at this given time frame as evidenced by a 2000 candle backtest ( or about 500 hours or 82 trading days). Energy may not be the hottest sector right now but nor is it the coldest.
AMEX:BOILLong
by AwesomeAvani
12
Is Natural Gas(NG) Preparing for a Big Bounce???Technical Analysis: - Natural Gas is in a weekly edging buy area and any moment it can bounce once wave (5) in blue will be done - Anyway, the big probability with actual data is that a small extend could happen in the wave (5) - H1 right side is turning down - H4 right side is down Technical Information: - If you're a position trader or long term investor, you may buy in the actual level - And if you're a swing trader, wait for possible extend in wave (5)
NYMEX:NG1!Long
by Market-Right-Side
11
Natural Gas Further DeclinesTraders are currently reducing natural gas losses, but the outlook for the summer is unimpressive, combined with technical factors, which suggests the possibility of further declines in the future. Natural gas is trading on the weakside of $2.432 (R1), making it new resistance. Overcoming this level will indicate the return of buyers with $2.638 (R2) the next target. A sustained move under $2.432 (R1) will signal the presence of sellers. If this generates enough downside momentum then look for the selling to possibly extend into $2.168 (Pivot), followed by $1.962 (S1) S1 – $1.962 R1 – $2.432 S2 – $1.698 R2 – $2.638 S3 – $1.286 R3 – $2.902 Bearish Weather Continues The current weather patterns are unfavorable for natural gas prices, as systems in the southern US are preventing widespread high temperatures. This bearish weather is expected to continue until hotter patterns arrive, which is projected to be around June 6-10. Although natural gas prices are increasing on Wednesday, it is not being influenced by the weather. During the May 24-30 period, the US will experience active weather systems with showers, thunderstorms, and temperatures ranging from the 60s to 80s, except for hotter conditions in the Southwest deserts and South Texas reaching the 90s. The Great Lakes and Northeast regions will have cooler-than-normal temperatures, with overnight lows dropping into the upper 30s and 40s. This may result in a slight increase in heating demand. Canadian Gas Exports to U.S. Normalize Canadian natural gas exports to the United States have returned to normal levels following disruptions caused by wildfires in Alberta and other western provinces. This has led to a significant drop in U.S. gas futures, as Canada supplies around 8% of the gas consumed or exported by the U.S. In the past weeks, gas flows from Canada averaged 7.2 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd), lower than the year’s average of 8.3 bcfd. However, the amount of gas exported from Canada to the U.S. is expected to remain near a three-week high of 8.1 bcfd. The wildfires had forced Canadian producers to cut exports to a low of 6.4 bcfd. Overall, the return to normal gas flows from Canada has impacted gas prices and market dynamics in the U.S. Supply Dynamics Gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states reached 101.5 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in May, surpassing April’s record of 101.4 bcfd. Additionally, gas exports from Canada to the United States were expected to rise to 8.2 bcfd, a near three-week high. Demand Dynamics Despite predictions of slightly increased gas demand in the next two weeks, particularly due to low wind power generation, gas futures still experienced a decline. The proportion of U.S. power generated by wind dropped to 7% compared to the previous week’s high of 17%. This decline in wind power led to an increase in gas consumption for electricity generation, particularly in Texas. In the short term, the outlook for natural gas is bearish. The decrease in wind power generation has resulted in higher gas usage for electricity production, reducing the available supply for storage. Meteorologists project mostly normal weather conditions in the Lower 48 states, except for some colder-than-normal days from May 24-28. Refinitiv forecasts a slight decrease in U.S. gas demand, including exports, from 90.4 bcfd to 89.8 bcfd next week, with revised higher forecasts compared to the previous day’s outlook. These factors contribute to the bearish sentiment in the market.
CAPITALCOM:NATURALGASShort
by DaveBrascoFX
5
KOLD drops with Natural Gas RisesOn the daily chart KOLD has been testing resistance since February with a single touch in February , a head and shoulders in April and a double top in early May. It is now retracing due to the rise in natural gas prices in the past 10 days. A support line from a prior retracement in early March is drawn at 41.45. This analysis is further supported by the zero-lag MACD oscillator. I will take a trade of put options but short selling is another alternative. Once in the trade, a signal to close will be the red zone outside the bands as was the case in late February. The actual sell signal being the thick MACD black line inflecting from moving downward to upward. KOLD could drop 80% from the present price down to the POC line of the volume profile at about $ 12.50. If leveraged with put options this could represent a 5X profit or better. Any sustained rebound in natural gas prices will lend heavy support to this idea. IF a trader wants to capture smaller moves albeit at the risk of getting into a chop zone, a smaller time fram such as 30-120 minutes could be used.
AMEX:KOLDShort
by AwesomeAvani
1
NATURAL GAS - Why I am Bullish - FULL SETUPWait for the small trend (blue line) to be broken upwards with confirmation of retest and rejection and from there you can enter LONG. We have interesting news from SAPPORO, which announced today that they will reduce GAS production, but, a big BUT, they mentioned that they will temporarily stop investments in this sector. On the one hand, this can scare small investors and the price can make a DUMP up to the 1.8 area and from there the accumulation and capitulation necessary to go up, or it can break this trend even on Monday and see the beginning of a BULLMARKET for gas. Personally, I think we will see an increase. But I have a BUY order at 1.80 ready so as not to miss the opportunity.
CAPITALCOM:NATURALGASLong
by sfc95
Trouble for NGAS. NGAS LongGood day traders, Following all my NGAS analysis meeting take profit levels, I'm now able to confirm the bigger picture. Please note that all my analysis are done from a swing point of view but you could see the targets being met sooner than anticipated. Building up to the Russia/Ukraine war we noticed the Natural Gas prices consolidate and only saw it surge after the sanctions were handed. With the sanctions in place, I believe that the market will keep surging until something is done about the high demand that was created by the sanctions. What we currently know: The Russia/Ukraine most recent peace talks failed thus we saw the market surge to $8.1 last week. We are are close our support and I now anticipate Natural gas to retest our key level and eventually meet our Take profit level on our long term resistance. What are your thoughts on this commodity? Do you agree with my observation? Please join in the converstion to share your thoughts. Disclaimer NASDAQ Guru offers general trading signals that does not take into consideration your own trading experiences, personal objectives and goals, financial means, or risk tolerance.
NLong
by Mezzoforte_Privilege
8$ NATURAL GAS PER GALLON COMMING???Fundamentals; Russian President Vladimir Putin is demanding foreign buyers pay for Russian gas in roubles from Friday or else have their supplies cut, a move European capitals rejected and which Germany said amounted to "blackmail". Putin's decree on Thursday leaves Europe facing the prospect of losing more than a third of its gas supply. Germany, the most heavily reliant on Russia, has already activated an emergency plan that could lead to rationing in Europe's biggest economy. Western companies and governments have rejected any move to change their gas supply contracts to another payment currency. Most European buyers use euros. Executives say it would take months or longer to renegotiate terms. Payment in roubles would also blunt the impact of Western curbs on Moscow's access to its foreign exchange reserves. Meanwhile, European states have been racing to secure alternative supplies, but with the global market already tight, they have few options. The United States has offered more of its liquefied natural gas (LNG) but not enough to replace Russia. European gas prices have rocketed higher on mounting tension with Russia raising the risk of recession. Companies, including makers of steel and chemicals, have been forced to curtail production British and Dutch gas prices , were up 4% to 5% after Putin's announcement. European companies had little or no immediate comment on the Russian announcement or on their contracts with Gazprom (GAZP.MM), which has a monopoly on Russian gas exports by pipeline. Poland's PGNiG (PGN.WA) said it remained in contact with Gazprom with which it has a long-term contract that expires at the end of this year, but it said it would not discuss details. Italian energy firm Eni (ENI.MI), another major European buyer of Russian gas, also had no comment. It bought around 22.5 bcm of Russian gas in 2020. Its contracts with Gazprom expire in 2035. Danish energy firm Orsted (ORSTED.CO), which has a long-term take-or-pay contract with Gazprom, said it was waiting to hear from the Russian firm and declined to comment further. Uniper (UN01.DE) and EnBW's (EBKG.DE) VNG (VNG.UL), two major German buyers of Russian gas, declined to comment, while RWE (RWEG.DE) did not immediately respond. Technical ; Okay so I'm a buyer now how would i enter the market and and what are the technical reasons that would confirm my bias As we can see that on the higher time frame the market has reached an old highs And retraced and made a higher high in confluence with Fibonacci Retracement and if we zoom out to a MONTHLY TIME FRAME ; that we can see a significant change in overall market structure is broken to see this shift see it in terms of a broken wedge pattern starting from dec,1,2009 to 1 oct 2021 the market has recently retested that zone at 3.600 with a fib 0.618 + confluence of retest of major resistance turned support 3.600. 4 HOUR TIME FRAME ; we can see that the market is making higher highs and higher lows with a standard deviation 0.100 points give or take and average of 0.69 points HEADING TO 8.500 THIS IS GENERAL OVERVIEW OF MY PRESPECTIVE For trend analysis i use quantitative analysis AND ENTRY with help of highly proficient algorithms CONCLUSION i understand that 8$ per gallon gas ideas seems far fetched but all i see right now that the market is pricing in something it could be the reasons above or any other reason but this is what i this is going to happen IF anything happens that changes the fundamentals of this idea, i will update. please note that this is not financial advice. do your own research and use this information as conformational bias on top of your own analysis. like for support!!!!
NLong
by zeyankhan1318
6