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Naturalgastrading
Natural Gas Trading: Strategies Around Key Levels 15-10-2024Navigating Natural Gas Trading: Strategies Around Key Levels
Natural gas trading can be both exciting and challenging, especially when you have clear reference points like your mid-point and upper/lower levels. In this blog, we'll explore strategies to navigate the current market with a mid-point of 208.50, an upper level of 209.90, and a lower level of 207.10.
Understanding the Key Levels
Mid-Point (208.50): This serves as the equilibrium level in the market. Prices often oscillate around this point, making it a significant area to watch for potential trades.
Upper Level (209.90): This is your resistance level. If prices approach this point, it may indicate an opportunity to go short, anticipating a reversal.
Lower Level (207.10): This serves as your support level. If prices test this area, consider going long, expecting a bounce back.
Trading Strategy
1. Price Action Analysis
Before making any trades, observe the price action around these levels. Watch for candlestick patterns, volume spikes, and other indicators that suggest market sentiment.
If Price Approaches 209.90: Look for signs of resistance. A reversal pattern (like a double top or shooting star) may suggest that the price is likely to drop. Consider placing a short trade with a stop-loss above this level.
If Price Approaches 207.10: Watch for bullish signals. A strong bullish candlestick or a reversal pattern could indicate that the price will bounce back. In this case, consider a long position with a stop-loss just below this level.
2. Risk Management
Always prioritize risk management. Set your stop-loss orders based on your risk tolerance. For example, if you're trading near the upper or lower levels, consider setting your stop-loss a few ticks outside these levels to avoid getting stopped out by minor fluctuations.
3. Monitoring Market Conditions
Natural gas prices can be highly influenced by external factors like weather, supply reports, and geopolitical events. Stay updated on relevant news and reports to make informed trading decisions.
Conclusion
Trading natural gas around key levels requires a solid understanding of price action and market sentiment. By using your mid-point, upper, and lower levels strategically, you can identify potential trade opportunities. Remember to incorporate risk management to protect your capital. Whether the price moves towards the upper level or the lower level, having a plan in place will help you navigate the market with confidence.
Dear Traders,
As you navigate the dynamic world of trading, it’s crucial to remain vigilant about the financial risks involved. Here are key considerations to keep in mind:
Market Volatility: Financial markets, including natural gas, can be highly volatile. Prices can change rapidly due to unexpected news or economic data. Always be prepared for sudden fluctuations.
Leverage Risks: Trading with leverage can amplify both gains and losses. While it allows for larger positions, it also increases the risk of significant financial loss. Use leverage cautiously and understand the implications.
Risk Management: Implementing a solid risk management strategy is essential. Set stop-loss orders to limit potential losses and only risk a small percentage of your capital on any single trade.
Emotional Discipline: Trading can evoke strong emotions, leading to impulsive decisions. Maintain discipline and adhere to your trading plan, even in challenging market conditions.
Market Research: Stay informed about market trends, economic indicators, and geopolitical events that may impact prices. Informed traders make better decisions.
Education and Experience: Continuous learning is vital. Consider practicing with a demo account to hone your skills before committing real capital.
Consult a Financial Advisor: If you're uncertain about your trading strategy or financial situation, seeking advice from a qualified financial advisor can provide valuable insights.
Trading can be rewarding, but it carries inherent risks. Stay informed, manage your risks carefully, and trade responsibly.
Wishing you successful trading!
NATURAL GAS: Peak reversal. Strong sell signal.Natural Gas is about to turned neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 58.678, MACD = 0.175, ADX = 30.811), previously from an overbough state, as it made a standard LH rejection at the top of a year long Triangle pattern. The 1D RSI peaked like all prior LH, the 1D MACD is forming a Bearish Cross (again like all prior LH), so we have a prime sell signal in our hands. Common target on all was the 1.786 Fibonacci extension (TP = 2.165).
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NATURAL GAS: Rejection on the 7 month Resistance.Natural Gas is only marginally bullish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 56.609, MACD = 0.187, ADX = 40.616) as it failed to cross over the LH trendline. At the same time, it is supported on the 1D MA200 having broken out for the first time since January 3rd. Long-term we remain slightly bullish on NG but on the short-term, we will wait for LH validation. If the price crosses above it, we will take a short term buy and aim for the R1 level (TP = 3.350). If instead the price crosses under the 1D MA200, we will take a short term sell aiming at the 1D MA50 (TP = 2.200).
See how our prior idea has worked out:
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Downtrend Breakout, So Uptrend Confirmation. Long Term AnalysisThis is Long -Term Analysis to understand the "Upcoming" Market Direction. Now Confirmed the Downtrend has Breakout. So market definitely move into Uptrend. It might temporarily move downside as a Retest of the Trendline. Must follow Trend continuation technic.
I marked 0.5 Fibonacci Retracement. It is Next Target for Short Term Traders.
I want to help people Make Profit all over the World throughout my entire life. Additionally, I am eager to Receive Money form Worldwide because of my Potential.
NATURAL GAS: Ahead of a 12 month Bull Market at least.Natural Gas is on a very sharp four month decline after failing to cross over the 1M MA50, the second most aggressive four month drop so far in the past 19 years. Since the July 2008 High, the market is trading inside a Channel Down and this sharp decline is technically the final phase of the Bearish Wave to a LL at the bottom of the Channel Down. That means that a long term buy opportunity is gradually approaching and we are estimating a fair target level to be 1.400 unless the 1M RSI touches the 15 year Buy Zone earlier. Every bottom rebound extended initially to at least +134% and that is our target (TP = 3.100) for the next 12 months. It will also be a potential test of the 1M MA200.
See how our prior idea has worked out:
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NATURAL GAS: Buy opportunity near oversold levels.Natural Gas is almost oversold on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 33.738, MACD = -0.139, ADX = 32.983) right at the bottom of the three month Channel Down. Last time the 1D RSI dipped under 30.000 (oversold level), the LL was formed, the Channel Down bottomed and posted a strong December-January rally. Due to the long term bearish trend on NG, we don't expect such a rally this time but the price is low enough to justify a short term buy to test the 1D MA50 (TP = 2.500).
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NATURAL GAS: Long term Cycles target 1.400.Natural Gas is very consistent with its long term patterns and in particular Cycles that have been in effect since the 2008 crisis. The dominant pattern since then has been a Channel Down and with the application of the Fibonacci levels we get a good understanding of the Cyclical phases. We need to look at the 1W timeframe for that, where the technical is already bearish (RSI = 40.467, MACD = 0.009, ADX = 38.451), recently rejected near the 1W MA200 and now under the 1W MA50.
We can see another three patterns with declines under the 1W MA50 after a 1W Death Cross formation. All pushed near the bottom of the Channel Down, with only the 2009-2012 taking longer. Every monthly rally is a sell entry for us from now on (TP = 1.400).
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NATURAL GAS: Rebound expected near the 1D MA50.Natural Gas is on a six day bearish streak, turning neutral on the 1D technical outlook (RSI = 47.415, MACD = 0.105, ADX = 27.914). The pattern since April is a Bullish Megaphone and every pullback like this, has been a buy opportunity. The last one reversed just before it hit the 1D MA50, and as the 1D RSI is also near the S1 level, we turn bullish, targeting the R1 level (TP = 3.645).
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NATGAS Analysis 30July2023This analysis is still with the old analysis. Still in a positive condition bullish. After the price forms a choch structure and corrected, the price is stuck in the Fibo Retracement area 0.382 and is likely to continue bullish up to the right level of Fibo 1,618 in contact with the highest price in March.
NatGas: Come on! 👏NatGas needs to show a bit more motivation to complete wave 3 in green, as we expect the corresponding top near the upper end of the white zone between $1.88 and $3.43. After the price has also dealt with the short counter movement of wave 4 in green, it should finish the green five part upwards movement, rising from the white zone toward the top of wave iv in pink. As soon as this is placed, we reckon with a significant downwards movement, which should lead to the low of wave 2 in green before the ascent can start anew. However, there is a 40% chance that NatGas could leave the white zone on the lower side prematurely, thus developing wave alt.2 in green earlier already.
NATURAL GAS: Short term Sell opportunityNatural Gas got supported on the 4H MA50 yesterday but the rebound seems to be running out of steam. The R1 at 2.697 is so far a Double Top and as the 4H RSI is forming the same bearish pattern as in late May while the 1D technicals are losing strength (RSI = 59.608, MACD = 0.079, ADX = 32.120), we are shorting NG targeting the HL trendline (TP = 2.300).
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Natural Gas: Has it Found a Bottom?Natural gas made a stunning rally to an all-time high, only to come crashing back down again. It's been a while since we last covered natural gas, so let's take a look at what's happened since then.
The previous technical & seasonality setup played out perfectly with the RSI bouncing off the low and the rally into the winter season, hitting our profit target and extending further.
This time, we're seeing a similar setup on a different timescale. Zooming out, natural gas has retraced the entire move it made in the past three years and is now back to pre-COVID levels. The question is, has natural gas found a bottom here?
Looking at the weekly chart for natural gas over the past 20 years, we see an interesting picture. The weekly RSI has only broken past the 30 level five times over this two-decade period, and each time marked the rough bottom for natural gas. Fortunately, we're seeing this exact setup now, with prices seeming to find resistance at the $2 handle, which has also proven to be a reliable resistance level.
Comparing the Henry Hub natural gas against the Dutch TTF natural gas, we can see the spread back to the lows when adjusting for the same unit measurement of MMBtu and in USD.
On the fundamental side, this excerpt from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) sums up the outlook for Natural Gas vs Coal:
“Natural gas-fired generation capacity in the United States has grown in recent years, although coal-fired generation has continued to decline. Lower coal-fired generation is due to a long-term trend of coal power plant retirements and increased competition with natural gas-fired combined-cycle plants when natural gas prices are low. A total of 11.5 gigawatts (GW) of U.S. coal-fired electricity generating capacity retired in 2022. No new coal-fired capacity has come online since 2013, and developers have not reported any plans to build new U.S. coal-fired capacity in the future. In contrast, nearly 6.1 GW of natural gas-fired capacity was added in 2022, according to our Preliminary Monthly Electric Generator Inventory.”
Natural Gas saw a record high for the winter heating season.
Additionally, close to 23% of US coal plants have plans to retire by 2029, and the last new coal plant that came online in the US was in 2013, 10 years ago.
With coal plants being the second-largest source of electricity in the US and supply being cut, energy has to come from somewhere else. While the push for renewable energy continues, natural gas remains the main source of energy production. The dissipation of supply from retiring coal plants will likely be filled by natural gas. The reason being? Natural Gas currently remains most reliable form of energy source, while nuclear faces political pushbacks and Wind, Hydro & Solar have unpredictable/intermittent generation capacity.
Lastly, the Dollar sits on a key level now. If broken, the weakening dollar could drive commodities prices higher en masse.
All in all, the case to long natural gas from here seems reasonable, with the fundamental outlook for Natural gas still positive and the technical set-up pointing to a low. Taking a long position at the current levels of 2.186 and setting our stops at 1.85 and our first take profit level at 3.1 gives us a reasonable halfway point while setting our next take profit level at 3.8 gives us a higher profit potential if prices continue to rise. CME’s Henry Hub Natural gas is quoted in U.S. dollars and cents per MMBtu. Each 0.001 increment equal to 10$.
The charts above were generated using CME’s Real-Time data available on TradingView. Inspirante Trading Solutions is subscribed to both TradingView Premium and CME Real-time Market Data which allows us to identify trading set-ups in real-time and express our market opinions. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
Disclaimer:
The contents in this Idea are intended for information purpose only and do not constitute investment recommendation or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products or services. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios. A full version of the disclaimer is available in our profile description.
Reference:
www.cmegroup.com
www.eia.gov
www.eia.gov
blogs.worldbank.org
Natgas: More pressure! 💪You know this one?
Pascal: “Hurry up! Get a move on! We really need to get going!”
- “Whoa, that’s a lot of pressure for just one Pascal…!”
Okay okay, bad jokes aside, Natgas does need a bit more pressure to rise from the compound consisting of the white zone between $1.880 and $3.436, the blue zone between $2.407 and $3.277 and the pink zone between $2.573 and $3.439. Above this conglomerate, it should finish wave iv in pink before turning downwards to develop wave 2 in green, which should then lead below the bottom of the white zone. Once this prominent low is established, Natgas should take off again. However, there is a 40% chance that Natgas could leave the white zone on the southern side, thus expanding wave alt.2 in green earlier already.
NATURAL GAS: Hit the 2 month Support. Buying is favored.Natural Gas hit the S1 Zone today (2.100 - 2.060), which started forming on February 22nd. This support has held another 8 times and with the 1D time frame neutral technically (RSI = 45.392, MACD = -0.046, ADX = 18.986), we are making a buy call targeting the 0.382 (TP = 2.440). In addition, the 1D RSI is bouncing off the HL trendline.
In the event however that the 1D candle closes under 2.060, we will revert to selling and target the -0.236 Fibonacci level (TP = 1.830).
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NATURAL GAS: Short term buy signal may be emerging.Natural Gas is very bearish on the 1D time frame (RSI = 36.041, MACD = -0.435, ADX = 40.625) with the RSI a few days back even oversold as since the December 15th Triple Top it has been falling non-stop.
That fall was initiated not just because of the Triple Top but also because of the RSI's Lower Highs (LH), which flashed a Bearish Divergence.
The price this month has been ranging sideways within the 2.340 Support and the 2.655 Resistance. Being this time on a Triple Bottom and with the RSI on HL (Higher Lows) we expect a short term rise to start if the price crosses the 4H MA100, which is untouched in 2 months. We will target the 4H MA200 (TP = 3.000).
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Natural gas 2023 outlook: Approaching a key confluence zone The recent price action in the daily natural gas price chart updated to December 5, 2022, saw prices falling rapidly and breaking below the supports of two moving averages (50dma and 200dma) and some key Fibonacci retracement levels, such as the 50% retracement of the post-Ukraine war rally to August highs.
The two moving averages earlier created a death-cross pattern on November 10, which proved bearish after a brief rally to $8.04/MMBtu.
In the summer, natural gas completed a head-and-shoulders pattern, falling below the $5.30 price support. That technical pattern was preceded by negative RSI divergence between April and June 2022, which also led in severe bearish price action to the $5.30 support level.
The double bottom in October and July, as well as the significant technical resistance between November 2021 and March 2022, signal a very critical confluence zone for natural gas.
The $5.30 critical support line is an important test for natural gas prices, which would have dropped by a recession-like 47% from their peak in August.
If the war in Ukraine persists, it is quite improbable that prices will return to the $4.3 level, where they were trading on February 24, 2022, when Russia invaded Ukraine. Bulls may therefore reappear if the $5.3 support line and $5 psychological level are tested.
On the upside, it is unlikely that the skyrocketing price levels observed in the summer of $9.5 or more will be retested anytime soon, as they coincide to an unprecedented supply issue in Europe that triggered an increase in US domestic prices due to increased LNG exports.
In the first quarter of 2023, a sideways market trend with prices ranging from $5 to $8 appears to be the most likely scenario for US natural gas. The colder the winter. The more severe the winter in the Northern Hemisphere, the greater the possibility that prices will trade between $6.5-8 range. Rising recession risks and warmer-than-average temperatures, on the other hand, could prevent a depletion in gas reserves, keeping prices under pressure.
NatGas: Athletic 👟💪🎾NatGas has been indulging in athletic activities – quite in accordance with its temperament. Since the end of wave ii in pink, NatGas has been exercising on the stairwalker, has been playing squash in the green trend channel and has been doing some aerobic. Next, it should proceed with trampolining on the blue zone between $5.554 and $4.684 to finish wave iii and iv in pink and then drop onto the pink mattress between $5.156 and $4.455 to complete wave v in pink, which also includes concluding the overarching downwards movement in the course of wave 2 in green. There is a 28% chance, though, that NastGas could skip the blue as well as the pink zone and lift itself directly above the resistance at $8.123.
NATURALGAS - Long to resistance ✅Hello traders!
⁉️This is my analysis on NATURALGAS .
Here I expect bullish price action after price filled the imbalance from 6.613. I see price to take out buy side liquidity and to fill the imbalance from 7.667, where I expect to reject from resistance.
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Natural gas: head and shoulders top pattern; $5 in sight?US natural gas prices have formed a head and shoulders top pattern, which may signal a weakening of the current major bullish trend and a subsequent reversal into a bearish one.
The left shoulder coincided with the relative highs at the end of July at $9.30/MMbtu, a level that was then followed by a pullback to $7.53 (August 8) prior to the beginning of a new rally toward the head at nearly $10.
The right shoulder was formed by the decline from $9.97 to $7.80, followed by a brief rebound at $9.22 and another decline to the current $7.86.
Although a brief breakdown was seen in the September 19 session, natural gas is now testing the neckline of the head and shoulders pattern. If confirmed, we could see a return to the level of $5.30, which were hit in early July 2022.
Additional bearish technical signals for the price of US natural gas include the MACD oscillator dipping below the zero line and the RSI slightly pointing south.
Idea written by Piero Cingari, forex and commodity analyst at Capital.com
NatGas: Chin the Bar! 💪NatGas is showing its sporty side and is chinning the bar at the resistance at $8.403. Soon, it should be warmed up enough to vault into the turquoise zone between $8.544 and $9.307, where it should then finish wave (iv) in turquoise. Afterwards, NatGas should jump below the support at $7.532 to complete wave (v) in turquoise as well as wave (2) in white before moving southwards again. Alternatively, there is a 28% chance that NatGas could do a somersault directly above the resistance at $10.028.
Natural Gas - Weekly Trading Idea
Hello guys,
keep your eyes on Natural Gas; Technically by looking at the charts the market is overbought and soon the Sellers will take control
and as Fundamentals are concern the sanctions on Iran will be soon lifted and if it will happen then Iran has biggest reserves of OIL & GAS this news will make Panic SELL you should keep your eyes open for the great opportunity.
*** This is not any FINANCIAL Advice *** only my Trading Plan / Analysis
NatGas: Energizer Bunny 🐰🔋🔋A certain fondness for pink is not the only thing, NatGas and the marketing mascot have in common. Both, NatGas and the mechanical toy rabbit, are also full of energy. NatGas has steadily been climbing upwards from the pink zone between $7.435 and $8.320 and has already finished wave (i) as well as wave (ii) in turquoise. Now, we expect it to rise above the resistance at $9.600, heading for the turquoise zone between $10.796 and $11.327 to complete wave (iii) in turquoise. There remains a 35% chance, though, that NatGas could lose steam and could decide to make a detour below the support at $6.898 first before resuming the ascent.