National Bank of Greece (NBG) - Comprehensive Analysis
In one week from today, the annual general meeting of the shareholders of the National Bank of Greece (NBG) will convene, where, among other matters, they will decide on the distribution of a dividend for the first time in nearly 15 years, amounting to €0.37 (€0.36 net).
NBG is currently attracting investment interest for two main reasons:
Dividend Distribution: Investors are buying the stock to ensure they receive the dividend.
Upcoming Privatization: The privatization is scheduled for the fall.
There is a belief that the stock will recover from the dividend cut-off, as the placement for the remaining 18.39% held by the Hellenic Financial Stability Fund (HFSF) will not take place below €8.
This is considered a safe bet, especially as recent analyses predict the stock price could rise even above €10.
Axia: Raises the target price for the stock to €10.50 from €8.80 previously.
UBS: Boosts the target price to €11.
The analysis of technical indicators and financial data of the National Bank of Greece presents a positive outlook for the current and future trajectory of the stock.
Technical Analysis
Price:
The current price is €8.186. The price has broken above the Fibonacci 0.618 level at €8.124, indicating upward momentum.
Moving Averages (EMA):
EMA 20: €7.967
EMA 50: €7.962
EMA 100: €7.912
EMA 200: €7.653
EMA 20 (€7.968): The price is above the 20-day EMA, indicating short-term upward momentum.
EMA 50 (€7.962): The price is above the 50-day EMA, indicating medium-term upward momentum.
EMA 100 (€7.912): The price is above the 100-day EMA, indicating long-term upward momentum.
EMA 200 (€7.653): The price is above the 200-day EMA, indicating strong overall upward momentum.
Relative Strength Index (RSI):
RSI (14): 64.14, indicating that the stock is in the bullish zone but not yet overbought.
MACD:
Histogram: 0.0244 (positive, indicating upward momentum)
MACD: 0.0325 (MACD line is above the signal line, indicating an upward trend)
Signal: 0.0080
Pivot Points
Support Levels:
S1: €7.778
S2: €7.610
S3: €7.464
Resistance Levels:
R1: €8.128
R2: €8.270
R3: €8.418
Central Pivot Point:
P: €7.940
The price is above the central pivot point (P: €7.940), indicating an upward trend. The price is approaching the first resistance level (R1: €8.128) and has the potential to test higher resistance levels (R2: €8.270 and R3: €8.418).
Conclusion Pivot Points:
Upward Trend: The current price is above the central pivot point, indicating an upward trend in the market.
Support and Resistance Levels:
Immediate support at €7.778 (S1), with further support at €7.610 (S2) and €7.464 (S3) if the price falls.
Immediate resistance at €8.128 (R1), with further resistance at €8.270 (R2) and €8.418 (R3) if the price continues to rise.
Performance Metrics:
1 week: +3.65%
1 month: +4.31%
3 months: +16.47%
6 months: +18.12%
Year to date: +30.17%
1 year: +32.06%
Positive returns for all periods (1 week, 1 month, 3 months, 6 months, year to date, and 1 year) indicate a continuous and steady upward trajectory of the stock. The significant return over the past year (+32.06%) strengthens confidence in its bullish outlook.
Overall Assessment:
Based on the updated technical indicators, the stock of the National Bank of Greece continues to exhibit strong upward momentum.
Specifically:
The stock prices are above all significant moving averages (EMA 20, 50, 100, and 200), indicating a stable upward trend in the short-term, medium-term, and long-term horizons.
The RSI is in a healthy bullish zone (63.90), suggesting that the stock is not overbought and has room for further growth.
The positive MACD histogram and the fact that the MACD line is above the signal line reinforce the stock's bullish outlook.
Conclusion:
The National Bank of Greece appears to be in a solid upward trend based on both technical indicators and financial results. Investors may consider that the stock still has room for growth; however, they should closely monitor technical indicators and financial results to adjust their investment strategies accordingly.
NBG
NBG Greek Bank finally settling on lows?There seems to be some calming down of this and flattening of the downtrend.
Big vol spikes on up movements in price over the last 4 months, and the volatility is subsiding.
This looks like it could be a double bottom, I put my stop entry price at 1.61 because the last breakout failed and it was 7c higher than the previous high, so 1.61 is 10c higher than the previous high of 1.51.
Many positive talks lately, so maybe this debt issue will resolve. The stop entry at 1.61 would likely get me in if it spikes powerfully. Until then, Im protected from further declines... Once it crosses 1.61 I'll turn bullish.
Opportunity in the bloodAs of now technicals are confirming a potential ab=cd that could be formed in NBG over the next few days if the bottom support range of 1~1.23 held providing an excellent 3.88 risk reward.
Some upcoming catalyst:
-Greece reform plans (April 8~9)
-NBG quarterly earnings. 4/2/2015?
I think it is quite unlikely that Greece will be leaving Eurozone (yet).
Even if that does happen, I expect short term decline in NBG with a even larger potential chance of recovery in the future. This is a level that I'll accumulate more positions for 5 years or so.
Another classic example of buy the rumor, sell the news.Sometimes knowing the general direction of fundamentals will be more than enough in trading, the charts says everything of what the market intended.
News are just meant for distribution of expensive stocks to the average joe.
Had a pretty good trade from this :)
Greece ready to continue back upMy Elliott Count for the Greece ETF is looking ready for an upcoming bull run.
I count us near the end of a wave ii, in an extended wave 3. As all us EW chartists know, this is an ideal spot for entering long, or buying call options.
However, Here is a BEARISH scenario,
where A=C and we are just starting the wave down....
This appears to be in sync with the National Bank of Greece (NBG) in which I have been closely following, here is a chart of that:
Would love to hear from other Elliott wave chartists,
NBG Almost finished Double Zig Zag Wave 2NBG Long term Chart:
I strongly believe we are currently in a corrective wave 2 of a long term wave C pattern that should complete near the fall, end of the year.
What I previously thought was an expanding diagonal () now appears to be a double zig zag corrective wave 2. If A=C in the corrective zig zag, then we can retrace as far as 2.95, but using channeling, fibs, and market sentiment as a whole, I believe we might start to bend up before that, around the 3.09-3.18 mark. That would be a great LONG entry.
If we dip below the bottom of wave 1 (2.90) then ALL BETS WOULD BE OFF, as wave 2 can never retrace more then wave 1. However, if this turns around when I intend, we should experience a strong wave 3 move to the upside soon.
Expanding Diagonal in wave 2Now might be the perfect time to buy to enter right before the strong bullish wave 3. It looks like wave 2 has developed into an expanding diagonal. Here is a zoomed out version of where we are on the longer term:
Here is an example of an expanding diagonal: www.wavetrack.com