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NBP

Vermilion Energy is also a natural gas companyMany investors seem to be overlooking that Vermilion Energy's production is nearly 50% weighted to natural gas. From Q2 2020, 45% of corporate production was natural gas. Vermilion was suffering from an extensive Eurogas bear market thanks to unprofitable shale production flooding Europe's shores in addition to a warm winter in Europe and Asia. TTF and JKM gas prices collapsed to just about the same as Henry Hub. In addition, until last year, Alberta's AECO (basis for VET's Canadian gas production) was devastated with unfavourable differentials due to challenges on the NGTL system which were solved October 2019. So now we have a return of premium pricing back in Europe on TTF and NBP; in addition to a strong AECO gas market in Canada which has room for improvement. I added ahead of earnings on short positioning as I suspected they would get hammered overlooking fundamentals; however, the actual fundamentals didn't appear because of hedges, so hold onto this until 2021 and beyond. Q1 will be a great quarter for Vermilion Energy.
TSX:VETLong
by chriskanaan
ridethepig | PLN Market Commentary 2020.02.19The outflows from Poland have been staggering to say the least, large sharks abandoning ship before the storm reaches shore. Notice how the NBP (National Bank of Poland) has been dovish even though inflation ticks higher ...everything is fine right... We traded the PLN devaluation versus CZK previously, now I prefer EURPLN longs as my 'weapon' of choice. There is room for a leg into 4.3075x and 4.333x as the extension. Thanks as usual for keeping the support coming with likes, comments and etc. An important round of G10 and EM macro FX charts coming over the next few sessions ...
Long
by ridethepig
3
2018 POLAND ECONOMIC GROWTH OFF TO STRONG START, EU GROWTH HELPSPLN has come under pressure after the National Bank of Poland reiterated its dovish stance at its policy meeting yesterday. Governor Glapinski suggested that the NBP may raise rates at the end of 2019 at the earliest, but current projections show no reason to raise rates before the end of 2020. This comes after the NBP revised its inflation forecasts marginally lower in 2018/19 while upgrading its GDP forecasts. Further dovish rhetoric suggesting rates on hold for a prolonged period of time, causing the market to price out hikes, could weigh on PLN from an interest rate differential perspective The NBP is likely to raise rates in 2019, AFTER the ECB. Nevertheless, the fundamental backdrop in Poland remains very strong, with solid growth and an improving external balance. Moreover, an improving Euro area backdrop should also benefit the zloty. We think such strong growth dynamics will ultimately support gradual PLN gains over the medium term. In addition, valuation looks attractive and the authorities continue to appear comfortable with zloty appreciation. In terms of risks, we acknowledge that we may see the zloty remain under pressure in the near term as rate expectations adjust. Credit to Morgan Stanley Research & Bloomberg wbj.pl
Short
by itzbert