NDAQ
Post 10/20 Q3 FY21' Earnings Analysis $TSLA, $VZ, $IBM, $NDAQ
$TSLA closed up ~+1.5% after reporting revenue that fell short of estimates - profit beat Q3 projections, despite a semiconductor shortage and supply-chain challenges that have troubled automakers
$VZ gained +2.4% yesterday following better-than-expected earnings numbers and a lower-than-expected customer churn rate, showing continuous growth
$IBM fell (5%+) in extended trading after missing revenue expectations and showing a decrease in gross margin vs. Q2 - also said that increased labor costs will be impacting their pricing in the future
$NDAQ posted beats on both EPS and Revenue for the 4th straight quarter - largely thanks to strong performances by both the Solutions and Market Services businesses
NASDAQ : UPTREND| SWING TRADING PULLBACK | LONG SETUP ⚡️Welcome back Traders, Investors, and Community!
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Have a Good Day Trading !
How many tech stocks do you own ?Looking at a bigger picture, we can see that of the 3 indices, the Nasdaq index soar the highest after the March 20 sudden fall. SPX500 and DJIA were pretty decent in its recovery , at least fairly consistent.
In today's digital world, we are talking about digitising the mom and pop shop concept (see how strong E commerce growth has been globally) and automation in industrial and material sectors.
It is no longer an exaggeration to say people of all ages cannot live without the online world !
Read articles here , here and here
Then compare the constant war that US and China have over the tech industry - Huawei being the classic case. It is said that China is now no longer a copycat like before but an innovator in the tech industry worldwide. The Government is also spending lots of money to boost this industry.
Not forgetting Covid-19 - is it getting better or worse now , on average ? SG has just returned back to dining from 5 to 2 due to a new recent cluster case. Malaysia and Indonesia along with other countries like India are facing staggering number of cases per day. Their healthcare system is at the brink of COLLAPSE , overworked , underpaid medical staff working long hours and poor distribution of vaccines plus insufficient education on the need to wear masks in some areas.
Connecting this dot, will travel and tourism business return anytime soon? Closely related are the hospitality industry like hotels, cruises, amusement parks, cinemas, entertainment industries - all will be hit hard. Is the government going to continue dig into its depleting coffer to support these industries ? Many companies will be forced to close shop and call it a day while others hang on a tight budget hoping to last another better day !
But it is not all gloom and doom if you know where to find the gems ! I will be sharing more in the next few posts .
Bullish- Long PlayAMZN has been consolidating in this channel for quite some time now and is forming what appears to be a very clear bullish ascending triangle off of a long-term uptrend line. As most already know, the DIA posting its worst week since October posting a 3.5% loss on the week with the SPY and NDAQ following posting losses of 1.9% and 0.2%, respectively. By no means is this a short-term play, however, certainly will be watching closely for a breakout at the end of this ascending triangle. The last time AMZN was consolidating in a parallel channel like this one we saw a breakout to new highs, AMZN has prime day coming up as well as earnings on 7/16' which could both serve as a catalyst for a nice run. Broader market conditions permitting-
PT1- $3,750
PT2- $4,000
PT3- $4,115
DOW will drop to 25,000 by End of YearA simple chart here folks.
Obviously, most of you technical traders are probably already aware of this ominous ascending wedge that the market has been working on and working inside since March of 2020, the apex of 'Rona lockdown fears.
Since that time the Fed has really done absolutely nothing to help the U.S. dollar. Now, this was a known campaign message under Trump. Republican candidates tend to raise taxes secretly under the guise of inflation, and Democrats a generally more forthcoming in their taxing endeavors, making the American people aware of their initiatives by raising taxes. When the economy suffers most from our political administrations' actions, both taxes and interest rates are simultaneously raised. So far, under the Biden administration, this has not yet occurred. "YET" is the keyword here.
Typically, the most politically diplomatic action any leader can take if they are being encouraged to do both is to first raise capital via new taxes (or orders that necessitate new taxes), and then, once these have been signed into law the Fed can begin to work on their end raising basis points. The dollar is usually strengthened by the latter action, depending upon what it is being juxtaposed against.
Lately, the dollar has been spiraling downward, at times, sinking to new lows monthly.
Tremendous pressure is being placed on Powell and the Fed to take action. However, to this point, the Fed has done nothing.
I believe that if we combine a bit of simple technical data with historical precedence and political strategy, we should be able to reasonably deduce what the future may hold for our fragile (my opinion, of course) economy.
With that long preface out of the way, allow me to show you what my idea here concludes.
First, the ascending wedge. Typically, this is a bearish signal. Sometimes, it can be broken to the upside (as with S&P and the NASDAQ); however; when this occurs, it will most often come back down to touch the top of the wedge. Previous resistance now becomes support. Many times this support is broken and the bearish indication of the rising wedge still comes to fruition. I believe this will be the case. Technical analysis historically supports this probability.
Additionally, on the technical side, we have a small Head & Shoulders pattern playing out on the 4-hour chart. The neckline is in RED. We could move between the RED (neckline support) and BLACK (overhead resistance and topline of the ascending wedge) through the middle of May before we finally collapse down and fulfill this pattern, at which point, I believe the domino effect may begin as the fundamental logic and political strategy of what I have mentioned above will begin to be initiated by the Biden admin and the Fed.
By mid-May Biden will have signed into order most of the most impactful (economically speaking) actions. The Fed, under his admin, has been patient. They have been able to make it this far without taking action. But the dollar is being absolutely demolished while they have been sitting on their hands. There is tremendous pressure to take action. Enter June.
On June 15-16 (tentatively scheduled) the Fed will meet again. It is at this point that I believe they will be compelled to take some sort of action against the falling price of the dollar. I predict that they will start with a small basis point hike. It may only be 25 basis points at first. But this will be enough to trigger the domino effect. It will strengthen the dollar just enough to cause the market to stall. However, I don't believe the Fed will stop there. I believe from June through the rest of 2021, Powell and the Fed will continue to increase interest rates. By the time the year ends, the combined sum of all interest rate hikes could be as much as 175 basis points! I know this sounds far-fetched, but I am not alone in this theory. Someone is betting $90 million if it doesn't happen. I will post the article in the comments as I don't want to be flagged by TV for it. The last time I posted outside material, my post was hidden.
Please let me know in the comments if you agree or disagree with my current market sentiment.
Happy trading friends.
Macroeconomics - $URTH $MTUM $VLUE - The Holy GrailMSCI World ETF is at a double top at the ATH...
"Next Tuesday marks the 12-month anniversary of the MSCI AC World Value Index’s eight-year low, a key timeframe that many quantitative models use to screen for momentum shares to buy.
...
Momentum bets are popular within the roughly $2 trillion systematic community, which groups stocks together by their characteristics, an approach known as factor investing. Exchange-traded funds tied to momentum command $20 billion in the U.S. alone.
...
Some portfolios rebalance monthly. Others, including major momentum ETFs, do so every quarter or half year -- suggesting more cash will join the cyclical rotation at the end of this March.
...
The violent downdraft (and subsequent rally) of last March is poised to create the most turbulent rebalance ever for momentum-based strategies
...
A portfolio that buys the 100 top gainers in the S&P 500 would see the largest turnover in at least three decades if it rebalanced in March.
...
All this could be absorbed by the market comfortably on a typical day. But if enough quants sell the same stock at the same time, there’s always the risk of an increase in trading costs and price volatility."
- Bloomberg
319 quad witching OpEx, and momentum factor 1 year rebalancing aligning hints at a non-trivial probability of high volatility!
At the end of the day, BlackRock's quants decide what goes into these ETFs. It has been interesting indeed to follow theirs and the Morgans' trail.
Let's see if this period is the catalyst for "The Blood Moon"...
GLHF
- DPT
Nasdaq, simple 6 month trade setupPretty simple play here
Let's say 25% of your 100k portfolio is liquid
Ex: $25,000 liquid portfolio
Take 30% of that
$7500
Average in buys between 120-127 at 2500 each and 2x leverage
Target $155
Let's say price bottoms and wicks to $117.50
You'd buy $15000 worth of shares avg $123.50
Sell at $155 for 25.5% move and 51% profit on your $7500 investment.
$7500 > $11,325, +$3,825 profit
So you would profit 15.3% on your liquid portfolio and 3.825% on your whole portfolio.
Apocalyptic Alternative Scenery for the SPX :DWhat if SP500 tops at the fibo extension (4100) from 2016 to 2020, which is in confluence with the upper trend line and from there it sinks to 1500? 1500 is the fibo extension from low to high 2020-2021 supposing it will top at 4100.
Fibo extension 1.61 is exactly the the top of 2008. Do you think that will happen or the market will ignore the financial crisis and continue going up?
Excuse my poor english :)
NASDAQ : NDAQ - Greed vs Fear Please don't forget to FOLLOW, LIKE, and COMMENT ...
If you like my analysis:)
Trade Safe - Trade Well
Regards,
Michael Harding 😎 Chief Technical Strategist @ LEFTURN Inc.
RISK DISCLAIMER
Information and opinions contained with this post are for educational purposes and do not constitute trading recommendations. Trading Forex on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Before deciding to invest in Forex you should consider your knowledge, investment objectives, and your risk appetite. Only trade/invest with funds you can afford to lose.
Tech sector showing weakness despite gains on election dayWhen comparing tech focused ETFs/indexes, namely $NDAQ and $XLK, we can see that $SPY has recently been outperforming them. My theory is that this is an unusual case and a sign that tech stocks are near tops.
Given that I did not receive the dip I wanted, I have difficulty putting on a short position on tech. There is also the factor that the highs have not been truly swept yet.
Just something to keep an eye on.
$NDAQ/$SPY
$XLK/$SPY
For options plays, it would appear leaps for $NDAQ would be ideal, while short term plays on $XLK would work out. $NDAQ is quite illiquid.
Amazon (AMZN), Nasdaq (NDAQ) - October 30Hello?
Dear traders, nice to meet you.
"Like" is a huge force for me.
By "following" you can always get new information quickly.
Thank you for always supporting me.
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The gap (3162.47-3201.27) rose and attempted to break above the downtrend line (4), but failed to break.
If the gap does not go down, it is expected to be able to break off the downtrend line (4).
We have to see if we can get support on the downtrend line (4) and the uptrend line (1).
It is located in the important section 3104.0-3294.62.
I think it's a good idea to stop trading for a while and check the flow when you're in the zone that determines the direction.
I think it's time to check the strategy on what choices to make when there is a movement out of the 3104.0-3294.62 section.
Breaking above the 3294.62 point, the downtrend line (2) is expected to be a strong resistance trend line.
A break below the 3104.0 point is expected to serve as a support point at 3008.91.
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(NASDAQ (NDAQ) 1D chart)
You need to see if you can get support at the uptrend line (1).
If it falls below the uptrend line (1), I think there is a high probability of falling below the 118.83 point.
It must rise above the 127.03 point to make a trend change.
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** Check support, resistance, and abbreviation points.
** Support or resistance is based on the closing price of the 1D chart.
** All explanations are for reference only and do not guarantee profit or loss on investment.
Explanation of abbreviations displayed on the chart
R: A point or section of resistance that requires a response to preserve profits
S-L: Stop-Loss point or section
S: A point or segment that can be bought for profit generation as a support point or segment
(Short-term Stop Loss can be said to be a point where profits and losses can be preserved or additionally entered through installment trading. You should trade from a short-term investment perspective.)
GAP refers to the difference in prices that occurred when the stock market, CME, and BAKKT exchanges were closed because they do not trade 24 hours a day.
G1: Closed price
G2: Market price at the time of opening
Amazon (AMZN), Nasdaq (NDAQ) - October 29Hello?
Dear traders, nice to meet you.
"Like" is a huge force for me.
By "following" you can always get new information quickly.
Thank you for always supporting me.
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It started with a higher gap, but closed below the base line.
It also fell in the MS-Signal indicator.
You need to see if you can get support at the uptrend line (1).
If it falls from the uptrend line (1), it is expected to touch the 3104.0 point.
We have to see if we can get support at 3104.0 and at the uptrend line (1) and move up along the uptrend line (1).
If it falls from 3104.0, it could be in jeopardy to keep it at 3000.
Therefore, if it falls from the uptrend line (1), it is a short-term Stop Loss.
If it falls at 3104.0, you need to trade in installments to preserve profit and loss.
If it falls at the point of 3008.91, it is trading to preserve profit and loss (Stop Loss).
Short-term volatility may occur around November 2nd (November 1st-3rd), so keep an eye on the flow.
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(NASDAQ (NDAQ) 1D chart)
It started with the gap (125.10-123.75) falling and touched the uptrend line (1).
You need to see if you can get support at the uptrend line (1).
You also have to watch if you can get off the downtrend line (5).
If it declines without rebound, it is likely to touch the 114.33 point.
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** Check support, resistance, and abbreviation points.
** Support or resistance is based on the closing price of the 1D chart.
** All explanations are for reference only and do not guarantee profit or loss on investment.
Explanation of abbreviations displayed on the chart
R: A point or section of resistance that requires a response to preserve profits
S-L: Stop-Loss point or section
S: A point or segment that can be bought for profit generation as a support point or segment
(Short-term Stop Loss can be said to be a point where profits and losses can be preserved or additionally entered through installment trading. You must trade from a short-term investment perspective.)
GAP refers to the difference in prices that occurred when the stock market, CME, and BAKKT exchanges were closed because they do not trade 24 hours a day.
G1: closing price when closed
G2: Market price at the time of opening
Amazon (AMZN), Nasdaq (NDAQ) - October 28Hello?
Dear traders, nice to meet you.
"Like" is a huge force for me.
By "following" you can always get new information quickly.
Thank you for always supporting me.
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We must see if we can ascend above the 3294.62 point.
It has moved in the opposite direction of the NDAQ index, so we have to see if the index's influence will cause it to decline.
If it falls, you need to make sure you can get support in the base line.
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(NASDAQ (NDAQ) 1D chart)
It fell at the upside down trend line (2).
We'll have to see if we can quickly climb above the 127.03 point.
You also have to see if you'll be touching the uptrend line (1).
-------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------------------
** Check support, resistance, and abbreviation points.
** Support or resistance is based on the closing price of the 1D chart.
** All explanations are for reference only and do not guarantee profit or loss on investment.
Explanation of abbreviations displayed on the chart
R: A point or section of resistance that requires a response to preserve profits
S-L: Stop-Loss point or section
S: A point or segment that can be bought for profit generation as a support point or segment
(Short-term Stop Loss can be said to be a point where profits and losses can be preserved or additionally entered through installment trading. You must trade from a short-term investment perspective.)
Amazon (AMZN), Nasdaq (NDAQ) - October 27Hello?
Dear traders, nice to meet you.
"Like" is a huge force for me.
By "following" you can always get new information quickly.
Thank you for always supporting me.
-------------------------------------------------- -----
It's time to see if you can sideways along the uptrend line (1) from 3104.0-3294.62 between October 23 and November 20.
If you go down the base line, you can touch 3104.0, so make sure you get support at 3104.0.
Changes in the MS-Signal indicator and the position of the candle should be checked.
You need to make sure that the gap falls and starts below the base line.
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(NASDAQ (NDAQ) 1D chart)
The gap interval is 129.12-127.76.
Support rose at the uptrend line (2).
We need to see if we can get support at the uptrend line (2) and at 127.03.
If you decline from the uptrend line (2), you are likely to touch the uptrend line (1).
In order to change the trend, it must rise above 128.87 points.
-------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------------------
** Check support, resistance, and abbreviation points.
** Support or resistance is based on the closing price of the 1D chart.
** All explanations are for reference only and do not guarantee profit or loss on investment.
Explanation of abbreviations displayed on the chart
R: A point or section of resistance that requires a response to preserve profits
S-L: Stop-Loss point or section
S: A point or segment that can be bought for profit generation as a support point or segment
(Short-term Stop Loss can be said to be a point where profits and losses can be preserved or additionally entered through installment trading. You must trade from a short-term investment perspective.)
S&P 500 short position/SPX SELL and DROP=SHORTSPX shows signs of serious weakness having on mind technical side of the story.
TECHNICAL PART:
- DAILY MACD BEARISH
-WEEKLY MACD BEARISH
-DAILY STOCH RSI BEARISH.
-WEEKLY STOCK RSI BEARISH
From technical side i don't have doubts that stock market will experience one more crash which will be followed by inflation of USD towards 1,26 and 1,35 instance over EUR.
From fundamental side, S&P 500 had three technical years historticaly (continual growth since 2008-nowdays) followed by a big crash on January 30.th when index fell from 3400-2200 index points.
THATS 12 YEARS OF CONTINUAL GROWTH APROXIMATELY, since 1 technological year equates to 4-5 calendar years.
USD MADE TRIPLE JUMP IN TECHNOLOGICAL SECTION BRINGING TECHNOLOGY to 5 NM.
THEREFORE, I DO EXPECT SIMULATIOUS DROP ON NDAQ AND DJI.
Now, after this " butterfly pattern" manifests, index of this unsustainable price will bring #SPX index to 2400 points and lower levels including very top of it at 1867 level.
GERMAN ECONOMY WILL FOLLOW, I've stated it in the other chart of mine :
CLEAR YOUR POSITIONS.
Cheers
Amazon (AMZN), Nasdaq (NDAQ) - October 26Hello?
Dear traders, nice to meet you.
"Like" is a huge force for me.
By "following" you can always get new information quickly.
Thank you for always supporting me.
-------------------------------------------------- -----
It remains to be seen if there will be a flow deviating from the 3104.0-3294.62 section.
It remains to be seen if it is possible to break above the 3294.62 point along the uptrend line (1) around Oct 23-Nov 20.
If it falls from the uptrend line (1), it is a short-term Stop Loss.
If it falls below the 3008.91 point, there is a possibility that it will fall towards the 2545.02 point, so I think trading is necessary to preserve the profit and loss.
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(NASDAQ (NDAQ) 1D chart)
It remains to be seen if it can rise along the uptrend line (2) around October 27-November 4.
If you decline from the uptrend line (2), you are likely to touch the uptrend line (1).
-------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------------------
** Check support, resistance and abbreviation points.
** Support or resistance is based on the closing price of the 1D chart.
** All explanations are for reference only and do not guarantee profit or loss on investment.
Explanation of abbreviations displayed on the chart
R: A point or section of resistance that requires a response to preserve profits
S-L: Stop-Loss point or section
S: A point or segment that can be bought for profit generation as a support point or segment
(Short-term Stop Loss can be said to be a point where profits and losses can be preserved or additionally entered through installment trading. You should trade from a short-term investment perspective.)