NASDAQ - BIG MONEY MAKING SHORT POSITIONS ?Thanks for coming to this update.
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Looks like there is something big happening with Nasdaq.
The amount of bearish volume present in the candle which did a re-test of the previous ALL-TIME HIGH region as support, is quite high and not seen in a long time.
For further confirmation, looking at the 5 min. chart for NDAQ, the bearish volume, and price expansion do dominate that of the bullish volume and price expansion (See the chart below).
NDAQ may move higher from here, but I think Smart Money could be making its short positions for the time to come.
A break of 120 with volume would be quite bearish and could push entire global markets down with it.
Keep an eye on other indices for such big short positions.
Trade Safe.
Please note: These are my views and not trading advice. Please consult your financial adviser before making any trading decision.
“We want to perceive ourselves as winners, but successful traders are always focusing on their losses.” - Peter Borish
NDAQ
NDAQ shows perfect Wyckoff Distribution: Begin MarkdownNDAQ is of course highly correlated with NDX, QQQ, and relate tickers so if NDAQ looks bullish it is a sign that TQQQ and SQQQ will move predictably. If NDAQ is bearish that will have likewise opposite effect.
NDAQ came screaming out of the March low to set an advance into a buying climax. The initial give back of that buying climax sets up the Automatic Reaction and that helps define our zone of support, also called the ice due to how dangerous it can be when it breaks.
The support on the ice here was confirmed with a bounce of the 20 day moving average which lead to a lower high. That in itself is nothing too serious but subsequent to that price actoin slipped the 20 day and hit the ice again as a Sign of Weakness.
After the sign of weakness there was a Upward Thrust which didn't have the buying volume to continue. In other words, bulls where exhausted and could not continue the uptrend. In another sense, there was no one else to pump the bulls bags as buyers were unwilling or unable to continue the trend.
I like to use the On Balance Volume EMAs to evaluate this uptrend, peak to peak. I have tried using it on larger timeframes and it doesn't work for me, it isn't responsive enough on the monthly timeframes and my entries are too late. But this is a great resolution.
We see this uptrend was not supported with enough volume and the indicator shows a lot of classic bearish divergence which predicts a reversal. Also, OBV break of the 100 EMA is extraordinarily bearish circumstance and should not be taken lightly. Also on that chart is my VSTOP system I continue to tinker with. The MTF VSTOP flipping bearish is also... very bearish.
After the Upward Thrust the ice breaks. This is bad because if price action doesn't recover it basically drowns and sinks to the bottom. The ice has flipped from support to resistance and when price actin failed before even hitting the 20 day moving average we have a very bearish set of circumstances.
The bottom might be hard to find. DJI has set a lower high and SPX is double topping, both with falling volume so this isn't a bullish set of circumstances. (Technically a double top has peaks within 5% but I think SPX double top with a 5.7% difference is close enought to round down).
I am going to let this run for quite a while. I entered my SQQQ position a couple days ago and feel confident that I can let this run until I see some bullish divergence on the NQ1! or SPXU MACD on the 12h or I see NDX out of the bottom of the weekly or monthly bollinger band. My linked post below is one of my most painful post. I completely nailed the bottom reversal and then buggered up the trade by not letting my winners run and shorting too soon. That is one reason why I have incorporated the VSTOP and MTF VSTOP into my system to help steady my hands to the upside when the macro situation is so bearish.
NASDAQ - I won't panic, sorry.Nasdaq's bull run was unreal. Out of this world. Irrealistic, many would say.
We all knew this was going to happen at some point.
Call me delusional, overly optimistic, or even naive.
But I am not panicking just yet.
We broke through resistance and a pull-back to the new support is a healthy signal. We need the Nasdaq to slow down, we need to put a break to impulse investing, to unreasonable pumps, and, most importantly, to the media pressure.
If I was to treat this chart as a stock, I would place a limit order on the bounce, aiming for a perfect textbook entry point. I know that a bull-run will most likely follow after that.
I might wrong, of course. After all, trading is not an exact science and I'm not considering fundamentals as well as behavioral finance in my analysis.
However, I just feel it is too early to call this a crash.
I will definitely be concerned if we break through the support line. Not until then, though.
When it comes to my trading activity, I had already skipped trading tech for the past week or so, as I felt this was coming this week.
I will now sit on the sidelines until I get some clarity. I might be back on Tuesday with new setups, or maybe the week after. If the sell-off continues I might add more short setups, as long as there is some rationale behind.
Time now to be grateful for our wonderful August, study, enjoy a little break and hope for a new direction soon.
I would love to hear your short-term outlook about the Nasdaq, where do you see it heading in September, and how this is going to affect your trading (or investment) plan.
#Nasdaq - Is Nasdaq ready to make new ALL TIME HIGHS?Thanks for coming to this update.
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After getting rejecting from the ALL TIME HIGH region, NASDAQ tried to retest that zone again and saw a rejection once more.
But even though it saw a rejection, there is a good chance now that with subsequent re-tests of the 120 -121 region, bulls may be able to break past that resistance zone.
In that case, Nasdaq would see new ALL TIME HIGHS and may turn others markets bullish too.
But be very cautious if you are trying make your trades around this idea as there may be a bull trap waiting and we may just see a good dump too.
We haven't seen a good pull back in Nasdaq since it's run up from the crash and thus we can also see that in the near future. Keep that in mind as a bearish case scenario.
Please note: These are my views and not trading advice. Please consult your financial adviser before taking any trading decision.
Daily RSI
NASDAQ- 57 ( Neutral Zone)
“In order to succeed, you first have to be willing to experience failure.” ― Yvan Byeajee
NASDAQ TECH FLEXNDAQ is having a bit of an electric surge and could push ATH (all time highs) amid the pandemic playing out. Tech for the win it seems during times of uncertainty to save the day.
Bears are getting a bit of a slaughtering here as many are turning to and being more reliant on technology than ever before.
A forethought is that smart money in other US markets will leave these stagnate companies to flow into high tech tech firms, due to FOMO thus NASDAQ will hit ALL TIME HIGHS.
Keep in mind that this also makes the economy look stronger yet soo many more are staggery than ever before since the start of 2020 due to the flow on effects of covid and the recession that no one is clearly speaking about that’s been teeter totting since mid last year. (You can’t polish a turd)
NDAQ - BULLSEYE!* Remember to support with LIKE and FOLLOW me for more analysis *
NDAQ is performing very well, rising more than 5% since my last analysis. If you missed my call, you can check it here (and follow me to keep in touch, I do daily analysis):
The daily chart shows us a harami/hammer pattern, just above the 21 ema, indicated to us that the bulls arrived at the party:
The target for the daily chart is the green line, the optimal for a Head and Shoulders pattern.
Now let’s see how strong the bulls can be. If you look at the hourly chart, the price met the target of the double bottom (Eve & Eve double bottom), demonstrated by the blue lines. So, it’s a nice place for a pullback, but if the bulls are strong enough, that may not happen at all. Nevertheless, I’m taking some profits now.
Congratulations for those who did the trade, and if you are out, no worries, certainly more opportunities will come. Remember to FOLLOW me and LIKE this idea if it helped you.
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NASDAQ – A good, technical trend.After NDAQ triggered this Head & Shoulders, the target of this pattern is the 116.19 (green line). Now, we see a pullback, and today the price met the 21 ema and formed a harami / hammer. It is very good, and if triggered could be a very good, quick trade, with a clear stop and nice risk/gain relationship.
I wish it would sink a little lower, to 100 point region (blue line), because it served as support and resistance alike in the past (green squares). But we should work with we got. The low volume of today’s candle is a little disturbing, so, keep your eyes open.
The hourly chart gives us more clues about what’s next. There are two supports here, the red line and the blue line (which is the same from the daily chart). If it goes down that region, the pullback will continue a little further.
1H chart:
We can also see a double bottom here (Eve & Eve double bottom), that could take the price easily to 111. The setup here is simple: If the price breakout the 106, and the candle closes above, it is a long trade. This pattern has 66% chances of a pullback rate, so prepare yourself.
If it helped you, support the idea and follow me for more analysis.
Thank you. Good trades.
NASDAQ FUTURE PROJECTION *UPDATE #2*NASDAQ:NDAQ Seeing drop next week, possibly starting Monday. Drop of around three days (-61 degrees (~negative 5%) in three days vs ~ approx. -70 degree drop (or approx. 35%) in 12 trading days (3/5-3/23). May increase hedge short-term for such period. Longer term projection remains bullish until 101 level is breached to the downside.
Medium to long term downtrend?This is not financial advice and is for educational purposes.
Looking at Fibbonacci levels over the medium term, I was originally expecting retracement to 38.2. However, now we are approaching 61.8 levels. I suspect we won't break that resistance, and NDAQ will continue to fall lower given the high VIX, the RSI trending towards overbought (not on the chart), and generally the macroeconomics moving forward. I also don't feel that the social distancing guideline extensions have been priced in. Thoughts?
Spooky Fractal! The Whole scenario is set up to cause the same ripple effects.
#1 Federal Reserve is going to print to where the public loses faith in the currency
#2 The Banks are Insolvent
#3 National and Personal Debt
#4 COVID-19 quarantine nonsense just crashed discretionary sector for the foreseeable future. Cinema, Cruiselines, Restaurants, ALL WANT to be BAILED OUT.
#5 Business has taken advantage of cheap loans and grew based on debt and never paid down debt or saves for a rainy day, they bought back their stock and drove prices higher for personal gain. "The Love of Money is the roots of all sorts of evil" (How many CEO's stepped down in the past 30 days?) Taking those shares and dumping them... Now they don't have the funds and want to be bailed out. NO ONE IS TOO BIG TOO FAIL!
#6 Employees of the affected sector have bills due and now helicopter money is going to help. Those banks and retail stores they don't pay back will go insolvent. I own an in-house financing establishment (already getting I need to make an extension calls).
#6 Those banks will be proven insolvent and the trickle effect will make waves. It's not going to happen overnight.
I hate to be thinking this way but the Saeculum has come full circle.
Hard times -> Strongmen
Strong men -> Good times
Good times -> Weak men
Weak men -> Hard times*
*𝑌𝑜𝑢 𝑎𝑟𝑒 ℎ𝑒𝑟𝑒
Full Circle...
This is the reset! 1929 + 90 years = 2019
renegadeinc.com
GANN Predicted this would happen in Dec 2019 "COVID-19 started then" Discretionary spending sector is finished" There is no recovery coming for them anytime soon. It will trickle down to the rest of the economy over the next 3 years. The FED @ 0% interest rate with NO FRACTIONAL RESERVE and QE666 This is the BLACK SWAN IMHO