Nasdaq - This Is Just The Beginning!Nasdaq ( TVC:NDQ ) is preparing a major rally going into 2025:
Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻
As mentioned in all of my previous analysis, the Nasdaq is rallying but despite the recent strong move, there is still a lot more room towards the upside. With the channel breakout happening over the past couple of months, it is quite likely that we will see a rally of +50% during 2025.
Levels to watch: $26.000
Keep your long term vision,
Philip (BasicTrading)
NDQ
Nasdaq - This Is Just The Beginning!Nasdaq ( TVC:NDQ ) is starting the next parabolic rally:
Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻
Although the Nasdaq is about to create a new all time high, this is just the beginning of the next major higher timeframe bullrun. The Nasdaq just broke above the channel resistance and is now heading for a +30% move. It feels absolutely counterintuitive - welcome to the stock market.
Levels to watch: $20.000, $26.000, $16.000
Keep your long term vision,
Philip (BasicTrading)
Nasdaq - Another +50% From Here!Nasdaq ( TVC:NDQ ) just broke out of a major channel:
Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻
It really seems like the Nasdaq is about to repeat the breakout behaviour of 2020. However, last month the Nasdaq showed some significant signs of weakness and vulnerability. The next couple of months will be very decisive, but the past of least resistance still seems towards the upside.
Levels to watch: $20.000, $25.000, $16.000
Keep your long term vision,
Philip (BasicTrading)
S&P 500 Index SPX To Rally FurtherThe S&P 500 index SPX is just 50 points away from breaching the previous all-time high.
The minutes of the Fed’s July 30-31 meeting, released Wednesday, said the “vast majority” of policymakers “observed that, if the data continued to come in about as expected, it would likely be appropriate to ease policy at the next meeting.”
Traders had already considered it a certainty that the Fed will announce its first interest rate cut in four years when it meets in mid-September.
SPX next targets: 5680 - 5825.
NASDAQ - What do I expect?Hey Guys,
the Quarterly and Yearly Chart are Bullish. The Monthly is showing 5 waves - could mean that some traders are willing to take some profits because they expect an ABC - Wave Correction from here.
However, a Fifth Wave extension is not that unlikely because the third has not been extended.
in simple words: We might see a bit of a correction - or we will see a straight continuation -break above and retest the Highs - but I guess many will be happy taking a bit of profit here, thinking about the upcoming election in the USA - a bit of Consolidation would be expected at least thats what I am thinking…
Either Way - I will be cautious during the next week as it might indicate what Q3 will look like.
Thank you for reading…
$SPY Does it Need a Bigger Correction?I have zoomed out to larger timeframes on AMEX:SPY to come up with some larger / longer timeframes. Here is what I started with; the weekly chart (shown) then zoomed out to the Monthly Chart (not shown) to draw the February 2009 trendline. I came back to the weekly to find the March 2020 trend. I then looked that the latest run starting in October 2023. That trend line is almost parabolic and was unsustainable.
I am not making any prediction here, but it would be prudent to have a plan for a larger correction. I have horizontal lines near the top of the chart that were drawn using the daily chart and it is possible that one of them (or none) could be support areas. It is all to be determined. Keep an open mind. Corrections can happen in price or time or a combination of both.
I would like to point out that on any of the charts that I post I am only correct about 50% of the time. My posts are more about self-accountability than anything else. However, I do hope that you find some value in the technical aspect of the posts.
Thanks for looking.
Nasdaq - Correction already over?Hello Traders and Investors, today I will take a look at the Nasdaq.
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Explanation of my video analysis:
For more than 10 years the Nasdaq has been trading in a pretty obvious and also profitable rising channel formation. We saw the last retest of support back in 2023 which was followed by a significant rally of +70% towards the upside. As we are speaking the Nasdaq is actually retesting resistance so there is a quite high chance that we will see at least a little more bearish continuation.
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Keep your long term vision,
Philip (BasicTrading)
Liquidity Crisis may happen, Market TOPPED OUTLiquidity Crisis may happen
most of hedgefund did buying treasury bond and then treasury bond margin loan ,
so they made almost 50x leverage on bond market
times over and over now only t-bill s gonna be recognized as collateral
so t-bill market happend this method
But NFP is too strong, FED didn't do Rate Cut now
So t-bill is bubbled now, we are gonna kill it
and stock market just knew there's plenty of liquidity until today
Only when the tide goes out do you discover who's been swimming naked.
So market topped out
$DIS Hanging onto the 50 DMANYSE:DIS I have taken a long position here as DIS seems to be holding the 50 DMA (red). My stop is nearby, just below the low on April 16th. This is a very early entry as it is below the 8 and 21 EMA but just reclaimed the 5 DMA (white).
The chart I am using is the All-In-One LevelUp tool available here on TV. Check it out.
Ideas, not investing / trading advice. Comments always welcome. Thanks for looking.
Nasdaq Short As we know normally the Nas100 it’s bullish, but why?
Well, when you invest normally you look for something stable and from the past performed well, that’s normally the Nas100 did, Like AMD, NVDA, Tesla, Microsoft etc. Last year all those stocks performed very well with likely 20-30% up.
Nas100 is related to Us30 and Smp500, usually last one perform 8-10% yearly.
As last year performed so well, I’m expecting a bearish year for Nas100 specially after the news.
Most of the Investors (mid long term) are currently going to looking something stable, like Gold and BTC.
As those are going up Nas100 and related are going down inevitability.
ATH in nas100 were been taken several times in the last 6 months and we need a significant retrace down, currently on 1H TH we are lower in the 100 SMA and this means that in a mid term it continues BEARISH.
This is in line with expectations to may some (interest cut) in June. Till then my bias is bearish.
I’m sharing my Analysis with chart also to understand my thoughts and decision.
Currently I’m expecting as mentioned to continue a Downtrend, followed by retracement etc.
I will publish in my mind section my position when I Open them.
So now it will arrive form my option lower than 17862.3, as on 18208.1 touched the 0.618 Lev and back down without braking any LH.
If it will going up again? If Yes, it has to stop between
Lev 0.618 Fib meaning (17994.4)
Lev 0.786 Fib meaning (17936.3)
And created a new LH that is positioned at 18208.1.
Happy trading!
$OKTA PEG (Power Earnings Gap) CandidateNASDAQ:OKTA jumped over 22% at the open from earnings reported on February 29th. It had a wide range of trading that day and closed just under the open about midway through the candle. It has been digesting that big move on lower volume for sixteen “trading” days (3 weeks). I went long this yesterday on the break of the downtrend line (blue). It pulled back by the end of the day but has not triggered my stop which is under the low of March 19th (103.61). It is recovering today but it really needs to get up and over yesterday’s high before I would now consider it a breakout.
I do have a one-half size position and if it can get up and over 107.30, I plan to bring it up to a full-sized position. As mentioned above, I do have a stop in place just in case it continues to the downside.
The chart I am using is the All-In-One LevelUp tool available here on TV. Check it out.
Ideas, not investing / trading advice. Comments always welcome. Thanks for looking.
$ARKK - VCP (Volatility Contraction Pattern)AMEX:ARKK Mark Minervini made famous the VCP as a set-up. It is also simply a wedging pattern that can break either way. However, where there was a previous uptrend, like in this chart, the direction of the break is usually to the upside. The path of least resistance is a continuation of the previous trend.
ARKK had a move of over 60% from the Oct 30th low to the Dec 27th high. It pulled back about 18% from that high and has been digesting since and is now down less than 8% from that most recent high.
As in life there are no guarantees on this. But here is my plan, I have an alert set on the upper downtrend line. Should that trigger, I will look to go long with a stop either below that day’s low or a close below the 20 EMA (White). All TBD.
Ideas, not investing / trading advice. Comments always welcome. Thanks for looking.
$SPX and Economic DataI do not know how long this has been available on @TradingView , but I just discovered it and wanted to make sure if you didn't know about it, I would bring it too your attention.
On the SP:SPX chart at the bottom when economic data is going to be announced or recently announced, click on the "Flag" icon(s) to see what it is. For example, jobless claims, unemployment, CPI and a host of others.
I hope this post helps someone. Great Tool TV!
Okay, for some reason when I post this chart the flags did not show. But look at your own SP:SPX chart and you will see them.
Nasdaq - Now Is The TimeHello Traders, welcome to today's analysis of Nasdaq.
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Explanation of my video analysis:
For more than 10 years the Nasdaq has been trading in an obvious rising channel formation and retested the lower support the last time in 2023. This retest was followed by an expected 65% pump. Considering that Nasdaq is now retesting resistance as mentioned in the analysis, I do expect a short term pullback to retest the next support level below current market price.
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I will only take a trade if all the rules of my strategy are satisfied.
Let me know in the comment section below if you have any questions.
Keep your long term vision.
Nasdaq - What Will Happen NextHello Traders, welcome to today's analysis of Nasdaq.
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Explanation of my video analysis:
For more than 13 years the Nasdaq has been trading in a decent rising channel. In the beginning of 2023 we saw a beautiful retest of the lower support and perfect confirmation so the recent rally of +70% was quite expected. If the Nasdaq now pulls back to the structure mentioned in the analysis, I am simply looking for bullish continuation setups from there.
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I will only take a trade if all the rules of my strategy are satisfied.
Let me know in the comment section below if you have any questions.
Keep your long term vision.
Nasdaq - Time To SellHello Traders, welcome to today's analysis of Nasdaq.
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Explanation of my video analysis:
For more than 14 years the nasdaq has been trading in a super obvious bullish parallel rising channel. In the beginning of 2023 we had another retest of the lower support which was followed by a +65% rally. If the Nasdaq rejects the current resistance towards the donwside and retests the support mentioned in the analysis, I will then be looking for long setups again.
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I will only take a trade if all the rules of my strategy are satisfied.
Let me know in the comment section below if you have any questions.
Keep your long term vision.
Possible Significant RecoveyThis scenario is VERY tricky, let me explain why it could go either way, drastically. I'll separate the bull/bear ideas. The nasdaq looks like it could bounce off the BB bottom for a decent recovery, but, it's to see what happens tomorrow.
Reasons for Bull Rally
This month inflation report is cooler.
With a lower CPI, markets will anticipate a 50 basis point or 25 basis point hike, meaning a more dovish stance from the Fed.
Reasons for Selling
This month inflation report is still high or hotter than expected.
With a higher CPI, markets will anticipate a 75 basis point or higher hike, meaning a more hawkish stance from the Fed.
July 29th Q2 GDP comes in negative, officially putting the US in recession.
The negativity possibility is significant. July economic data can break markets like not seen before. This is one to watch. I understand this is the 1M chart, so any move upward will be quick. I don't see markets rising for a few months, but, who knows.
$SPY Normal Pullback?I am posting the AMEX:SPY chart as many of the trade ideas I have posted over the last few weeks have not worked out well. This chart tells the story. The market has been choppy. While it is my belief that this is a normal pullback in a stronger secular trend, as a trader, I need to simply trade the chart in front of me and right now the market is fading. Many high growth stocks (the ones I concentrate on) have seen outsized declines as compared to the AMEX:SPY , $SPX. The NASDAQ:QQQ is similar.
I have made some notations on the chart that show what I am seeing. The biggest thing I notice is the decline in volume as this market pulls back. That tells me that there is no big rush for the door. That said, I would not be surprised to see this pullback to the 50 DMA which also aligns with the initial break-out area. Above that, there is an area that may see support and turn back up. It is all TBD.
In summation, it is time to simply observe the market and individual stocks. Those stocks that are holding up well may be the new leaders. Some of the existing leaders may pullback and set-up for great entries. All TBD. Patience is key until you see the market turn higher.
I welcome any feedback or comments. Thanks for taking the time to check this out.