NDQ
We've been in a huge bear market since February - nobody noticedEver wondered why your stocks keep going down although US Indices are at an All Time High?
Here is (most likely) the answer!
I've managed, with some degree of inaccuracy, to extract Nasdaq100 companies from the Nasdaq Composite Index .
This basically represents all stocks on the Nasdaq Exchange excluding Megacaps and SuperLareCap stocks.
The result is truly mindblowing - We've been in a huge bear market since February. During the last week, normal stocks have crashed with intensities not seen since the Corona Crash. 🔥
Disclaimer: The ratios used in the formula are just guesses - Tradingview doesn't provide any Index/Stock Exchange Market Cap data (yet). With those I could figure out the exact formula.
$NDQ #QQQ $QQQ pulling a Wu-Tang patternlooking at the 1hr chart, there is a classic W pattern formation going on here. December was a tough month for tech, and looks to be finally recovering. This weeks moves show a break above the prior down channel, with tightly wound consolidation. TBH I see this going in either direction, but with the tax loss harvesting done for 2021, my money is on volume buy-ins this month, with a beginning of a reversal in March when tapering is ending and rates are set to go up.
NFA
Barron's big money poll on a chartFor decades the Barron's big money poll tries to gauge the psychology of the market conducting a survey of the fund's managers, every 6 months.
I plotted on a chart the results of the last 7 surveys.
In the callouts are the titles of the results .
The line represents the bulls forecast (in green) and the bears forecasts (in red) , using their estimated targets (the end of the line is the date of the target, the coordinate is the target).
The numbers in green are: the proportion of bulls / the proportion of managers thinking that the market is undervalued .
The numbers in red are: the proportion of bears / the proportion of managers thinking that the market is over-valued .
One survey only sets a target for bulls and bears togethers, so the line is blue.
It's neither technical analysis nor fundamental analysis. It's an attempt to know what the others are thinking... ;)
It should be noted that round 5 times out of 6 the NASDAQ outperformed the bulls targets...
DXYDXY has another push coming, I would say $98.20-$99 blow off top, problem is H1- H4 are overbought and I cant be sure if DXY takes a LTF dump B4 the blow off top or it's just a LTF dip B4 the mega push to the dollar ensues & most likely this blow off top coupled with 10yr rates dumping to 1.2% or even lower to 1% will likely be that 4400-4500 SP500 dip & 15,100 NDQ & possibly 1 more crash to the crypto. So I can see it coming but I just cant pin point the TF TBH
Long if it cross the levelThe 22 and 26 of november I have started to short the Nasdaq100.
On the 26 all my technical indicators turned bearish.
December the 3 the N100 has lost 7.3% from his previous high, and went widely below the -2DS of the Bollinger Band.
Surprisingly between the 6 and the 7 the N100 took +1.78%. That's the biggest up-gap since march. Moreover in a bear market...
When it comes to fundamental analysis, nothing big happened (only some good news for the chinese market and the fear of Omicron fading, cf Barron's...)
And now all my indicators turned bullish...
Without touching the support (first time for more than a year).
I would advice to buy if the market cross the previous level that it failed two times to go over.
Or even to buy now...
The risk-reward would be between 1.5 and 2, not so much unfortunately.
The blue resistances are the previous ones. The black the current one. And the orange could be the next...
My indicators of a bull market, all fully activated:
SAR, MACD, Premier Stochastic Oscillator and Squeeze Momentum.
Head and shoulders?It starts to look like a head and shoulders.
Look carefully at the levels, on the previous year each time the line was crossed, the trend tumbled toward the support.
By the way I am resolutely bearish since friday (due to my technical indicators, which were the subject of my last post).
It will continue to plummet until december the 13.One idea: trade the trend.
4 indicators: net volume + (SAR and/or Squeeze Momentum and/or MACD).
All are saying the same thing: it's the beginning of a correction.
Reliable since the beginning of this channel.
Enough reliable to put 2x or 3x leverage.
Choose months ago (I was waiting for the right time).
Target: the support round december the 13.
Look at my past ideas on the nasdaq, all of those ideas were correct. ;)
Hope it will go on!
NASDAQ recovers & aims for new all-time-highs amidst earnings The NASDAQ (NDQ/USD) composite index bounces higher off the back of TESLA landing a 100,000 EV order from Hertz.
Moving forward, many big tech companies will be posting their earnings results in the coming days, such as; Apple, Twitter, and Amazon.
Should their results beat expectations then the NASDAQ will likely see fresh highs and a continuation up to channel resistance located around 16,400 index points.
Speculators looking for an entry should wait for a healthy pull back and consolidation to 1st support at 15,200 index points where price must hold.
Alternatively, a break above 1st resistance around 15,750 index points followed by flipping the resistance into support would also be the confirmation needed to enter LONG/BUY positions.
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Apple's WXY double Zig Zag, a probable count !!!Double and Triple ZigZag Rules:
Double (DZ) and Triple (TZ) Zigzags are similar to Zigzags, and are typically two or three Zigzag patterns strung together with a joining Wave called an x Wave, and are corrective in nature. Doubles are not common, and Triples are rare. Zigzags, Double Zigzags and Triple Zigzags are also known as Zigzag family patterns, or 'Sharp' patterns. Double Zigzags are labeled w-x-y, while Triple Zigzags are labeled w-x-y-xx-z. Both these patterns are included in the list of rules and guidelines below. Only a Double Zigzag is illustrated below.
Wave W must be a Zigzag.
Wave C of W cannot be a failure.
Wave X can be any corrective pattern except an ET.
Wave X must be smaller than Wave W by price.
Wave X must retrace at least 20% of W by price.
The gross price movement of Wave X must be less then 3 times the price movement of Wave W.
Wave X must be no more than 5 times Wave W by time.
Wave Y must be a Zigzag
Wave Y must be greater than or equal to Wave X by price.
Back to back and double failures are not allowed.
Wave Y must be greater than 90% of Wave W by price, and Wave Y must be less than 5 times Wave W by price.
Wave Y must be no more than a factor of 5 times either Wave X or W in price or time.
Wave C of Y cannot be a failure.
Wave XX can be any corrective pattern except an ET.
Wave XX must be smaller than Wave Y by price.
Wave XX must retrace at least 20% of Y.
The gross price movement of Wave XX must be less than 3 times the gross movement of Wave W.
Wave Z must be a Zigzag
Wave Z must be greater than or equal to Wave XX by price.
Wave Z must be less than 5 times Wave Y by price, and must also be less than 5 times Wave W by price.
Wave Z must be no more than a 5 times either Waves XX, Y, X or W in both price and time.
Double and Triple ZigZag Guidelines:
The largest Wave in Wave W is usually less than Wave W by price.
Wave X is usually a Zigzag family pattern.
Wave X is usually less than 70% of Wave W by price.
Wave X will usually retrace at least 30% of Wave W.
Wave X is most likely to be a 38.2% retracement of Wave W.
Wave X is next most likely to be a 50% retracement of Wave W.
Wave X is next most likely to be a 61.8% retracement of Wave W.
The largest Wave in Wave X is usually less than 140% of Wave W by price.
The time taken by Wave X is usually between 61.8% and 161.8% of Wave 1.
Wave Y is next most likely to be equal to 61.8% or 161.8% of W by price.
Expect the time taken by Wave Y to be between 61.8% of Wave W and 161.8% of shortest of Wave W and X.
Wave XX is usually a Zigzag family pattern.
Wave XX is usually less than 70% of Wave Y by price.
Wave XX will usually retrace at least 30% of Wave Y.
Wave XX is most likely to be a 38.2% retracement of Wave Y.
Wave XX is next most likely to be a 50% retracement of Wave Y.
Wave XX is next most likely to be a 61.8% retracement of Wave Y.
The largest Wave within Wave XX is usually less than 140% of Wave Y by price.
Wave Z is most likely to be about equal to Wave Y by price.
Wave Z is next most likely to be about equal to 61.8% or 161.8% of Wave Y.
The largest Wave in Wave Z is usually less than Wave Y by price.