NAS100Watching the Nasdaq 100 closely his morning after last weeks close super bullish on the big techies right now on this grind line and seeing a potential break this week.
Short term play for me is on the NAS100 but also trading the NDQ on spot for now as more of a long term position trade.
Markets may be over valued but i dont see them stopping any time soon with more and more money flowing into the markets and buying up the big dogs.
NDQ
QQQs overbought conditions forces June SwoonQQQs has been a steadily forming this ascending triangle flag since early February as part of a 3 month corrective wave pattern (4th wave). It wont take long for this pullback to happen (June Swoon). Perhaps as early July we start to see the market bottom here around 325ish then breaking out to complete the cycle. Sometime around early to mid Sept we top out around 400ish then correct hard.
I'm still trying to figure out what can cause such a breakdown in the market. It is extremely likely that a CoVid wave hits the US once again due to the delta variant being strongly felt among young adults. I'm assuming the US will not hit herd immunity of 70% before flu season (October) and cases rise accordingly. More deaths in young adults. Some states shut down again? Who knows? The other is inflation data coming in hotter than expected and FOMC meeting in the end of Sept causes more deterioration in the market and Powell is extremely hawkish pushing the fed to raise rates sooner than expected as early as beginning of 2022 instead of end of 2022. Oof!
If both news data comes to fruition, I could see the QQQs back in the 250s. The fifth wave is complete and my count is wrong and we go back to 2015 highs. I hope only one bad data happens and we go in this long bull run in the markets for the super cycle.
NASDAQ waves - Compare to dot com - Completed final wave???Wave analysis all the way back to the beginning of NASDAQ (zoom out and pan around). Focus on last major motive wave sequence. If my analysis is correct, then it looks like the NASDAQ may be at the end of its run. Also, I added the final motive wave from the dot com bubble over the current motive wave. As you can see, the NASDAQ is currently a bigger bubble than dot com.
This is not trading advice. Enjoy and good luck.