S&P 500 Index SPX To Rally FurtherThe S&P 500 index SPX is just 50 points away from breaching the previous all-time high.
The minutes of the Fed’s July 30-31 meeting, released Wednesday, said the “vast majority” of policymakers “observed that, if the data continued to come in about as expected, it would likely be appropriate to ease policy at the next meeting.”
Traders had already considered it a certainty that the Fed will announce its first interest rate cut in four years when it meets in mid-September.
SPX next targets: 5680 - 5825.
NDQ
NASDAQ - What do I expect?Hey Guys,
the Quarterly and Yearly Chart are Bullish. The Monthly is showing 5 waves - could mean that some traders are willing to take some profits because they expect an ABC - Wave Correction from here.
However, a Fifth Wave extension is not that unlikely because the third has not been extended.
in simple words: We might see a bit of a correction - or we will see a straight continuation -break above and retest the Highs - but I guess many will be happy taking a bit of profit here, thinking about the upcoming election in the USA - a bit of Consolidation would be expected at least thats what I am thinking…
Either Way - I will be cautious during the next week as it might indicate what Q3 will look like.
Thank you for reading…
Nasdaq - Correction already over?Hello Traders and Investors, today I will take a look at the Nasdaq.
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Explanation of my video analysis:
For more than 10 years the Nasdaq has been trading in a pretty obvious and also profitable rising channel formation. We saw the last retest of support back in 2023 which was followed by a significant rally of +70% towards the upside. As we are speaking the Nasdaq is actually retesting resistance so there is a quite high chance that we will see at least a little more bearish continuation.
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Keep your long term vision,
Philip (BasicTrading)
Liquidity Crisis may happen, Market TOPPED OUTLiquidity Crisis may happen
most of hedgefund did buying treasury bond and then treasury bond margin loan ,
so they made almost 50x leverage on bond market
times over and over now only t-bill s gonna be recognized as collateral
so t-bill market happend this method
But NFP is too strong, FED didn't do Rate Cut now
So t-bill is bubbled now, we are gonna kill it
and stock market just knew there's plenty of liquidity until today
Only when the tide goes out do you discover who's been swimming naked.
So market topped out
Nasdaq Short As we know normally the Nas100 it’s bullish, but why?
Well, when you invest normally you look for something stable and from the past performed well, that’s normally the Nas100 did, Like AMD, NVDA, Tesla, Microsoft etc. Last year all those stocks performed very well with likely 20-30% up.
Nas100 is related to Us30 and Smp500, usually last one perform 8-10% yearly.
As last year performed so well, I’m expecting a bearish year for Nas100 specially after the news.
Most of the Investors (mid long term) are currently going to looking something stable, like Gold and BTC.
As those are going up Nas100 and related are going down inevitability.
ATH in nas100 were been taken several times in the last 6 months and we need a significant retrace down, currently on 1H TH we are lower in the 100 SMA and this means that in a mid term it continues BEARISH.
This is in line with expectations to may some (interest cut) in June. Till then my bias is bearish.
I’m sharing my Analysis with chart also to understand my thoughts and decision.
Currently I’m expecting as mentioned to continue a Downtrend, followed by retracement etc.
I will publish in my mind section my position when I Open them.
So now it will arrive form my option lower than 17862.3, as on 18208.1 touched the 0.618 Lev and back down without braking any LH.
If it will going up again? If Yes, it has to stop between
Lev 0.618 Fib meaning (17994.4)
Lev 0.786 Fib meaning (17936.3)
And created a new LH that is positioned at 18208.1.
Happy trading!
$ARKK - VCP (Volatility Contraction Pattern)AMEX:ARKK Mark Minervini made famous the VCP as a set-up. It is also simply a wedging pattern that can break either way. However, where there was a previous uptrend, like in this chart, the direction of the break is usually to the upside. The path of least resistance is a continuation of the previous trend.
ARKK had a move of over 60% from the Oct 30th low to the Dec 27th high. It pulled back about 18% from that high and has been digesting since and is now down less than 8% from that most recent high.
As in life there are no guarantees on this. But here is my plan, I have an alert set on the upper downtrend line. Should that trigger, I will look to go long with a stop either below that day’s low or a close below the 20 EMA (White). All TBD.
Ideas, not investing / trading advice. Comments always welcome. Thanks for looking.
Nasdaq - Now Is The TimeHello Traders, welcome to today's analysis of Nasdaq.
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Explanation of my video analysis:
For more than 10 years the Nasdaq has been trading in an obvious rising channel formation and retested the lower support the last time in 2023. This retest was followed by an expected 65% pump. Considering that Nasdaq is now retesting resistance as mentioned in the analysis, I do expect a short term pullback to retest the next support level below current market price.
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I will only take a trade if all the rules of my strategy are satisfied.
Let me know in the comment section below if you have any questions.
Keep your long term vision.
Nasdaq - What Will Happen NextHello Traders, welcome to today's analysis of Nasdaq.
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Explanation of my video analysis:
For more than 13 years the Nasdaq has been trading in a decent rising channel. In the beginning of 2023 we saw a beautiful retest of the lower support and perfect confirmation so the recent rally of +70% was quite expected. If the Nasdaq now pulls back to the structure mentioned in the analysis, I am simply looking for bullish continuation setups from there.
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I will only take a trade if all the rules of my strategy are satisfied.
Let me know in the comment section below if you have any questions.
Keep your long term vision.
Nasdaq - Time To SellHello Traders, welcome to today's analysis of Nasdaq.
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Explanation of my video analysis:
For more than 14 years the nasdaq has been trading in a super obvious bullish parallel rising channel. In the beginning of 2023 we had another retest of the lower support which was followed by a +65% rally. If the Nasdaq rejects the current resistance towards the donwside and retests the support mentioned in the analysis, I will then be looking for long setups again.
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I will only take a trade if all the rules of my strategy are satisfied.
Let me know in the comment section below if you have any questions.
Keep your long term vision.
Possible Significant RecoveyThis scenario is VERY tricky, let me explain why it could go either way, drastically. I'll separate the bull/bear ideas. The nasdaq looks like it could bounce off the BB bottom for a decent recovery, but, it's to see what happens tomorrow.
Reasons for Bull Rally
This month inflation report is cooler.
With a lower CPI, markets will anticipate a 50 basis point or 25 basis point hike, meaning a more dovish stance from the Fed.
Reasons for Selling
This month inflation report is still high or hotter than expected.
With a higher CPI, markets will anticipate a 75 basis point or higher hike, meaning a more hawkish stance from the Fed.
July 29th Q2 GDP comes in negative, officially putting the US in recession.
The negativity possibility is significant. July economic data can break markets like not seen before. This is one to watch. I understand this is the 1M chart, so any move upward will be quick. I don't see markets rising for a few months, but, who knows.
$SPY Normal Pullback?I am posting the AMEX:SPY chart as many of the trade ideas I have posted over the last few weeks have not worked out well. This chart tells the story. The market has been choppy. While it is my belief that this is a normal pullback in a stronger secular trend, as a trader, I need to simply trade the chart in front of me and right now the market is fading. Many high growth stocks (the ones I concentrate on) have seen outsized declines as compared to the AMEX:SPY , $SPX. The NASDAQ:QQQ is similar.
I have made some notations on the chart that show what I am seeing. The biggest thing I notice is the decline in volume as this market pulls back. That tells me that there is no big rush for the door. That said, I would not be surprised to see this pullback to the 50 DMA which also aligns with the initial break-out area. Above that, there is an area that may see support and turn back up. It is all TBD.
In summation, it is time to simply observe the market and individual stocks. Those stocks that are holding up well may be the new leaders. Some of the existing leaders may pullback and set-up for great entries. All TBD. Patience is key until you see the market turn higher.
I welcome any feedback or comments. Thanks for taking the time to check this out.
Market Update 3/1/2024Too lazy to type again. Just watch the video. Its pretty straight forward.
As before, Id still like to see a drop back to the day TF hulls .
I am hoping this corresponds to MARA starting under 21.5 and then I can grab it when we start a week back above 21.5. And by above, I dont mean 25-30% above like it did last week.
Bitcoin Losing The Crypto War?Don't judge a book from it's cover. Read on and soon, you will find out who the real winner might be.
The explosive crypto mania was born because of Bitcoin. It is the reason myriads of alt-coins are now traded every day.
From the countless of alternatives, one became strong enough to constitute an alternative to the coin that started it all.
Ethereum (ETH)
From the chart below it is apparent that Bitcoin Dominance is mainly affected by Ethereum
In this idea I will be ignoring the effect of alt-coins, the dominance of which is shown in the following chart.
So how do the big guys compare to each other?
Simple... right? Well not exactly... Not all candidates fight with the same rules. Ethereum started after Bitcoin, and the enthusiasm has given it an apparent advantage.
To fix things, we must make the game fair for everyone. To achieve that, we divide each coin with the total amount of addresses (the bubble part).
In this chart above, I did an important transformation. BTC_ADDRESSES, as noted on my previous idea, is the reason items like crypto get explosive.
You know this chart above reminds me of another dominance chart:
Bitcoin did show it's power compared to other crypto. After all, it is not important if you bubble without foundation.
Ethereum is in an even bigger bubble than Bitcoin.
And a final, short-term chart for today. The calculation is again "modified-btc"/"modified-eth"
Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground.
-Father Grigori
BTC | Let NDQ Go Bust!Bitcooooooins... UP!
In the recent history, we have had two perma-bull trade-ables, NDQ and Bitcoin. No-one in their real mind would dare to short these 2 years ago... So what if, we could compare these two bulls? Who will survive in the years to come? Who is the record keeper? The answer is NOT as simple as it might seem. Read until the end to find out...
2022 will be marked as the worst year "ever" for equities (except The Great Depression of course). Money got much more precious last year compared to equities. Just by having money, you got "richer" last year. So compared to money, equities did get worse.
Items like Bitcoin suffered even worse. A 73% drop compared to SPX is a monumental way to break the crypto mania.
Bitcoin has been an over-leveraged, perma-bull trade-able item.
I don't know if it is a currency, a commodity or something else, so I call it a simple item.
The majority of Bitcoin's gains were thanks to derivatives (trading).
The same happens in Equities, but not to such an extent. NDQ is another perma-bull market full of stocks like AAPL and TSLA (everyones' favorites for some reason)
Bitcoin is on a whole new level of rapidness...
However, there is an exponential cousin to NDQ. That is SQQQ.
So how does it compare to NDQ? Since SQQQ is basically 1/QQQ, we will plot the QQQ*SQQQ chart to see the outcome.
This reminds me of the diminishing nature BTC_ADDRESSES showed.
We can raise SQQQ to the 0.2 exponent to bring it down to reality.
SQQQ is moving at the 5th exponent of QQQ. Incredible speeds really...
So how do these two lightnings (1/SQQQ and Bitcoin) compare??
I told you that the answer is not straight-forward.
And some short technical analysis:
This chart above describes the popular over-leveraged period when everyone traded Bitcoin.
There is a longer-term ticker showing the entire history of Bitoin ( INDEX:BTCUSD )
It shows us yet another perspective:
If these charts are true and breakout as intended, what could this mean for equities? Just how big of a bubble are equities in?
Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground.
-Father Grigori
PS. The popular knowledge is not the truth, it is just a famous lie.