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NDQ

Nasdaq - Correction already over?Hello Traders and Investors, today I will take a look at the Nasdaq. -------- Explanation of my video analysis: For more than 10 years the Nasdaq has been trading in a pretty obvious and also profitable rising channel formation. We saw the last retest of support back in 2023 which was followed by a significant rally of +70% towards the upside. As we are speaking the Nasdaq is actually retesting resistance so there is a quite high chance that we will see at least a little more bearish continuation. -------- Keep your long term vision, Philip (BasicTrading)
TVC:NDQ
by basictradingtv
2
Liquidity Crisis may happen, Market TOPPED OUTLiquidity Crisis may happen most of hedgefund did buying treasury bond and then treasury bond margin loan , so they made almost 50x leverage on bond market times over and over now only t-bill s gonna be recognized as collateral so t-bill market happend this method But NFP is too strong, FED didn't do Rate Cut now So t-bill is bubbled now, we are gonna kill it and stock market just knew there's plenty of liquidity until today Only when the tide goes out do you discover who's been swimming naked. So market topped out
TVC:NDQShort
by newjeansoldjean
5
Nasdaq Short As we know normally the Nas100 it’s bullish, but why? Well, when you invest normally you look for something stable and from the past performed well, that’s normally the Nas100 did, Like AMD, NVDA, Tesla, Microsoft etc. Last year all those stocks performed very well with likely 20-30% up. Nas100 is related to Us30 and Smp500, usually last one perform 8-10% yearly. As last year performed so well, I’m expecting a bearish year for Nas100 specially after the news. Most of the Investors (mid long term) are currently going to looking something stable, like Gold and BTC. As those are going up Nas100 and related are going down inevitability. ATH in nas100 were been taken several times in the last 6 months and we need a significant retrace down, currently on 1H TH we are lower in the 100 SMA and this means that in a mid term it continues BEARISH. This is in line with expectations to may some (interest cut) in June. Till then my bias is bearish. I’m sharing my Analysis with chart also to understand my thoughts and decision. Currently I’m expecting as mentioned to continue a Downtrend, followed by retracement etc. I will publish in my mind section my position when I Open them. So now it will arrive form my option lower than 17862.3, as on 18208.1 touched the 0.618 Lev and back down without braking any LH. If it will going up again? If Yes, it has to stop between Lev 0.618 Fib meaning (17994.4) Lev 0.786 Fib meaning (17936.3) And created a new LH that is positioned at 18208.1. Happy trading!
PEPPERSTONE:NAS100Short
by Nicknowledge13
6
$OKTA PEG (Power Earnings Gap) CandidateNASDAQ:OKTA jumped over 22% at the open from earnings reported on February 29th. It had a wide range of trading that day and closed just under the open about midway through the candle. It has been digesting that big move on lower volume for sixteen “trading” days (3 weeks). I went long this yesterday on the break of the downtrend line (blue). It pulled back by the end of the day but has not triggered my stop which is under the low of March 19th (103.61). It is recovering today but it really needs to get up and over yesterday’s high before I would now consider it a breakout. I do have a one-half size position and if it can get up and over 107.30, I plan to bring it up to a full-sized position. As mentioned above, I do have a stop in place just in case it continues to the downside. The chart I am using is the All-In-One LevelUp tool available here on TV. Check it out. Ideas, not investing / trading advice. Comments always welcome. Thanks for looking.
NASDAQ:OKTALong
by jaxdog
$ARKK - VCP (Volatility Contraction Pattern)AMEX:ARKK Mark Minervini made famous the VCP as a set-up. It is also simply a wedging pattern that can break either way. However, where there was a previous uptrend, like in this chart, the direction of the break is usually to the upside. The path of least resistance is a continuation of the previous trend. ARKK had a move of over 60% from the Oct 30th low to the Dec 27th high. It pulled back about 18% from that high and has been digesting since and is now down less than 8% from that most recent high. As in life there are no guarantees on this. But here is my plan, I have an alert set on the upper downtrend line. Should that trigger, I will look to go long with a stop either below that day’s low or a close below the 20 EMA (White). All TBD. Ideas, not investing / trading advice. Comments always welcome. Thanks for looking.
AMEX:ARKKLong
by jaxdog
$SPX and Economic DataI do not know how long this has been available on @TradingView , but I just discovered it and wanted to make sure if you didn't know about it, I would bring it too your attention. On the SP:SPX chart at the bottom when economic data is going to be announced or recently announced, click on the "Flag" icon(s) to see what it is. For example, jobless claims, unemployment, CPI and a host of others. I hope this post helps someone. Great Tool TV! Okay, for some reason when I post this chart the flags did not show. But look at your own SP:SPX chart and you will see them.
SP:SPX
by jaxdog
Nasdaq - Now Is The TimeHello Traders, welcome to today's analysis of Nasdaq. -------- Explanation of my video analysis: For more than 10 years the Nasdaq has been trading in an obvious rising channel formation and retested the lower support the last time in 2023. This retest was followed by an expected 65% pump. Considering that Nasdaq is now retesting resistance as mentioned in the analysis, I do expect a short term pullback to retest the next support level below current market price. -------- I will only take a trade if all the rules of my strategy are satisfied. Let me know in the comment section below if you have any questions. Keep your long term vision.
TVC:NDQ
by basictradingtv
9
Nasdaq - What Will Happen NextHello Traders, welcome to today's analysis of Nasdaq. -------- Explanation of my video analysis: For more than 13 years the Nasdaq has been trading in a decent rising channel. In the beginning of 2023 we saw a beautiful retest of the lower support and perfect confirmation so the recent rally of +70% was quite expected. If the Nasdaq now pulls back to the structure mentioned in the analysis, I am simply looking for bullish continuation setups from there. -------- I will only take a trade if all the rules of my strategy are satisfied. Let me know in the comment section below if you have any questions. Keep your long term vision.
TVC:NDQ
by basictradingtv
5
Nasdaq - Time To SellHello Traders, welcome to today's analysis of Nasdaq. -------- Explanation of my video analysis: For more than 14 years the nasdaq has been trading in a super obvious bullish parallel rising channel. In the beginning of 2023 we had another retest of the lower support which was followed by a +65% rally. If the Nasdaq rejects the current resistance towards the donwside and retests the support mentioned in the analysis, I will then be looking for long setups again. -------- I will only take a trade if all the rules of my strategy are satisfied. Let me know in the comment section below if you have any questions. Keep your long term vision.
TVC:NDQ
by basictradingtv
4
Possible Significant RecoveyThis scenario is VERY tricky, let me explain why it could go either way, drastically. I'll separate the bull/bear ideas. The nasdaq looks like it could bounce off the BB bottom for a decent recovery, but, it's to see what happens tomorrow. Reasons for Bull Rally This month inflation report is cooler. With a lower CPI, markets will anticipate a 50 basis point or 25 basis point hike, meaning a more dovish stance from the Fed. Reasons for Selling This month inflation report is still high or hotter than expected. With a higher CPI, markets will anticipate a 75 basis point or higher hike, meaning a more hawkish stance from the Fed. July 29th Q2 GDP comes in negative, officially putting the US in recession. The negativity possibility is significant. July economic data can break markets like not seen before. This is one to watch. I understand this is the 1M chart, so any move upward will be quick. I don't see markets rising for a few months, but, who knows.
NASDAQ:IXIC
by WorldEconomics
$SPY Normal Pullback?I am posting the AMEX:SPY chart as many of the trade ideas I have posted over the last few weeks have not worked out well. This chart tells the story. The market has been choppy. While it is my belief that this is a normal pullback in a stronger secular trend, as a trader, I need to simply trade the chart in front of me and right now the market is fading. Many high growth stocks (the ones I concentrate on) have seen outsized declines as compared to the AMEX:SPY , $SPX. The NASDAQ:QQQ is similar. I have made some notations on the chart that show what I am seeing. The biggest thing I notice is the decline in volume as this market pulls back. That tells me that there is no big rush for the door. That said, I would not be surprised to see this pullback to the 50 DMA which also aligns with the initial break-out area. Above that, there is an area that may see support and turn back up. It is all TBD. In summation, it is time to simply observe the market and individual stocks. Those stocks that are holding up well may be the new leaders. Some of the existing leaders may pullback and set-up for great entries. All TBD. Patience is key until you see the market turn higher. I welcome any feedback or comments. Thanks for taking the time to check this out.
AMEX:SPY
by jaxdog
Bitcoin Losing The Crypto War?Don't judge a book from it's cover. Read on and soon, you will find out who the real winner might be. The explosive crypto mania was born because of Bitcoin. It is the reason myriads of alt-coins are now traded every day. From the countless of alternatives, one became strong enough to constitute an alternative to the coin that started it all. Ethereum (ETH) From the chart below it is apparent that Bitcoin Dominance is mainly affected by Ethereum In this idea I will be ignoring the effect of alt-coins, the dominance of which is shown in the following chart. So how do the big guys compare to each other? Simple... right? Well not exactly... Not all candidates fight with the same rules. Ethereum started after Bitcoin, and the enthusiasm has given it an apparent advantage. To fix things, we must make the game fair for everyone. To achieve that, we divide each coin with the total amount of addresses (the bubble part). In this chart above, I did an important transformation. BTC_ADDRESSES, as noted on my previous idea, is the reason items like crypto get explosive. You know this chart above reminds me of another dominance chart: Bitcoin did show it's power compared to other crypto. After all, it is not important if you bubble without foundation. Ethereum is in an even bigger bubble than Bitcoin. And a final, short-term chart for today. The calculation is again "modified-btc"/"modified-eth" Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground. -Father Grigori
CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D
by akikostas
9
BTC | Let NDQ Go Bust!Bitcooooooins... UP! In the recent history, we have had two perma-bull trade-ables, NDQ and Bitcoin. No-one in their real mind would dare to short these 2 years ago... So what if, we could compare these two bulls? Who will survive in the years to come? Who is the record keeper? The answer is NOT as simple as it might seem. Read until the end to find out... 2022 will be marked as the worst year "ever" for equities (except The Great Depression of course). Money got much more precious last year compared to equities. Just by having money, you got "richer" last year. So compared to money, equities did get worse. Items like Bitcoin suffered even worse. A 73% drop compared to SPX is a monumental way to break the crypto mania. Bitcoin has been an over-leveraged, perma-bull trade-able item. I don't know if it is a currency, a commodity or something else, so I call it a simple item. The majority of Bitcoin's gains were thanks to derivatives (trading). The same happens in Equities, but not to such an extent. NDQ is another perma-bull market full of stocks like AAPL and TSLA (everyones' favorites for some reason) Bitcoin is on a whole new level of rapidness... However, there is an exponential cousin to NDQ. That is SQQQ. So how does it compare to NDQ? Since SQQQ is basically 1/QQQ, we will plot the QQQ*SQQQ chart to see the outcome. This reminds me of the diminishing nature BTC_ADDRESSES showed. We can raise SQQQ to the 0.2 exponent to bring it down to reality. SQQQ is moving at the 5th exponent of QQQ. Incredible speeds really... So how do these two lightnings (1/SQQQ and Bitcoin) compare?? I told you that the answer is not straight-forward. And some short technical analysis: This chart above describes the popular over-leveraged period when everyone traded Bitcoin. There is a longer-term ticker showing the entire history of Bitoin ( INDEX:BTCUSD ) It shows us yet another perspective: If these charts are true and breakout as intended, what could this mean for equities? Just how big of a bubble are equities in? Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground. -Father Grigori PS. The popular knowledge is not the truth, it is just a famous lie.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by akikostas
42
Inflation Wins, We LoseThere are two kinds of inflation, the normal one and the dangerous one. Printing money creates inflation. The kind however which is not dangerous to the foundation of the economy. With money printing, currency loses value and prices react accordingly. Nobody gets wealthy from money printing, and in a sense, "nobody" gets poor. By nobody I mean the economy as an average doesn't really get hurt. Inflation however widens the gap between poor and wealthy. Poor get poorer while rich get richer... Inflation analysis can be very simple. If one believes in simple support/resistance levels from consolidation patterns, then the following picture can be drawn for the standard inflation chart. For further validation, we can try analyzing commodities like oil. In the main chart, crude oil value is divided by the "total value of money in circulation". The value of money is the yield percentage. A massive consolidation pattern formed in 1986-2002, on which we are now supported. I believe that price cannot drop much lower than the point we are in. Dips can be expected, but in macro scale the chart is bullish. From the chart above, we conclude that oil prices (inflation) will grow compared to yields themselves. Each increase in yields (inflation fighting) will lead to higher oil prices (higher inflation). Charts like these prove the Catch-22 phenomenon we are in. This is the bad kind of inflation. This inflation is un-fixable. There is a plethora of charts that prove what I say, that inflation is unfixable. One of these charts is GOLD*PPIACO. @SPY_Master used the GOLD*DBC chart as a measure of inflation. Gold*PPIACO can be considered as another very-long-term inflation measure. Commodity production cost is bull-flagging against money supply itself. So okay, we all expect more inflation. And surely, equity prices have priced this in, right? Wrong. Equities have priced-in that the FED is controlling inflation. Investors expect both inflation and the FED to calm soon. So, equities have priced-in something that will never come. An investment can suffer when the investor judges the situation wrong. An investor who has understood the situation, "cannot" go bankrupt. Equity prices show that markets ignore the FED. In the chart above, DJI is divided by the yield curve as an attempt to measure the ability of equities to grow in a progressively tighter economy (falling yield-curve, negative yield curve). Even with all that money destruction and yield increases, equities are making all-time highs. The markets are very stubborn. The yield curve may describe the "ease" the market shows for equities. In normal times, the yield curve is positive, long-term yields are higher than short-term ones. This encourages short-term borrowing and stimulates the economy. As the yield curve steadily lowers, short-term money borrowing is less and less interesting for investors. (In the Spaaace!!! idea linked below, you can find more information about the DJI/yield-curve chart) High inflation and stubborn markets by themselves don't render equities as worthless. After all, equities survived in the stagflation period of 1970s. While the stagflation outcome can play out, there are things that may happen before it. There are some charts which are very concerning for equities... We tend to talk about the crypto bubble, and ignore the equity one. Equities have been consistently growing for the last 15 years. But thanks to what? Are companies in a "better shape" than they were in 2010? Sure technology has evolved, but from dependable devices we are now filled with unstable gadgets. Consumer devices as well as corporate ones, are more vulnerable than ever before. Security gaps are now appearing from big-tech companies to banks. Sure, issues like these were commonly occurring throughout history. But let's consider, is the immense equity growth representative of the dependence we can have on companies and their products/services? Are equities growing because of actual innovation, or from the easy way of derivatives? This chart shows the diminishing nature of derivatives. They are exponentially losing value, but their effect is much bigger than their cost. A purchase of cheap derivatives can bubble-up anything you can hope for. Where does this chart lead us? This chart attempts to calculate the effect of derivatives in QQQ price. Before 2020, QQQ consisted of a "stable" amount of derivatives. Price moved in the channel. In 2021 a bull-flag formed and launched the chart in incredible new highs (where we are now). It is one way to visualize the immense effect of derivatives, especially in big-tech stocks. (More about this chart in the "who would you trust with your money" idea linked below) Even if Bitcoin is "overpriced", it will be the winner if this golden bull-flag breaks out. Bitcoin seems to be beating many investments. Even if it may not be considered a commodity, it certainly behaves like one. Even if equities grow, each upwards move for equities, will lead to much higher prices for Bitcoin. Just like Bitcoin is bull-flagging against the most powerful of equity bubbles (QQQ Derivatives), commodities are bull-flagging against the most stable of equities (DJI) Not all equities are grim though... We may be witnessing a massive wealth transfer away from US corporations. In this idea, I attempt to analyze the massive shift of balance that we may be witnessing. While much harm has come to Europe from the war, almost everything is priced in. If the chart is correct, it means that every upwards move for US equities will push Germany further upwards. Germany has been enjoying a massive influx of money from the entire EU. After swallowing the entire European market, it is now forming a bull-flag against Europe and other countries. Germany as well as emerging markets prove a significant challenge for the US. These are bad news indeed for US equities... Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground. -Father Grigori
NYMEX:CL2!
by akikostas
6
You against inflationMoney printing has been a double-edged sword. One one hand ample liquidity helped the exponential productivity of the economy, on the other hand inflation hit hard. In periods of stagflation like the 1970s, immense inflation created an impenetrable ceiling for equities. In periods of extreme deflation (2010s), equities bubbled. It is interesting that in this period, inflation figures were are all-time lows, with immense money printing. With this chart we attempt to measure when and how much equities managed to overperform the weight of inflation. There are two methods of calculating inflation, one is total money printed, and the other is the "cumulative inflation". If we analyze SPX compared to money printed, this would be the outcome: This is not very helpful, since SPX is too closely related to total money printed. To measure "cumulative inflation" I attempted modifying this chart by @SPY_Master DBC*GOLD is a good estimate of inflation. Since we don't have enough historical data for the DBC index, we analyze one of it's cousins, the PPIACO index. DBC is an energy-focused mutual fund, while PPIACO measures the production cost. We assume that PPIACO*GOLD is a suitable replacement for DBC*GOLD. We end up with the cover chart, which I will briefly analyze, since it speaks on it's own. For almost 10 years we were attempting at penetrating the ribbon, to no avail... These fib-retracements are very beautiful... SPX: NDQ: They all prove that there is massive weight on top of us. After almost 10 years of trying to get back inside the high-energy-level above, can we do it now? Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground. -Father Grigori
SP:SPX
by akikostas
4