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Dirty BusinessYesterday I threw away all the indicators I have been using. A lot of dirt has cluttered my screen for too long. I have also made many custom ones, I threw them out too. But I kept just one, a moving average. Every* indicator refers to price after all. In the end, price discounts everything. No price indicator can tell us something price doesn't tell. The sayings of price are hard to understand. That is why most of us use indicators to clear the picture. *Well there are indicators that measure stuff that is not directly embedded into price action like volume, inflation etc. RSI is the most used indicator for like, ever... The same story, told by different indicators. I have heard that the best analysts use very few indicators on their charts. Volume and candle pattern/trend analysis is hardcore. These are some of the very few instruments of an experienced analyst. Indicators are there to help us get some perspective on how prices work. Many of them must be thrown away when an analyst is experienced enough. Clear information is power. But all of that, I didn't know all of this time. After abandoning RSI I sought other methods of analysis. Stochastic RSI and KST prove powerful methods of momentum analysis. In the end, most indicators refer closely to the original price action. It is just the perspective that changes. So what does trend analysis tell us about equities right now? I am purposefully hiding price action. Annoyingly simple. Final chart, Bitcoin: I will keep using a Keltner-ish Channel since it provides a pure, automatic way to get a feel of how far above or below trend we are. Clean up.
SP:SPX
by akikostas
12
Equity SpringThe Bear Extermination mission is now complete. There are no bears alive to tell the story. Last winter will be written in the history books. But remember, history is written by the winners. After all the Bears got trapped, we are left with a market full of neutrals and bulls. The most extremist of bears are gone. Negligible now the effect of the baby bears. Spring season greets the only ones left alive. Last year Bears got scammed. Panic ensued when equities began dropping rapidly. Little did they know, that what they lost in Equity value, they gained in Dollar value. Investors' sentiment can easily get played. And it can easily be measured. The incredible thing about the chart above, the Equity Put Call Ratio, is that it proves the overwhelmingly negative sentiment that exists now. Everyone "braces for impact", volatility is reaching incredible lows because nobody trades, expecting the crash to come any day now. Low volatility doesn't necessarily lead to higher volatility. Spring is the best season for traders. It may very well have come and passed, and we haven't realized it. Equities have indeed slowed down. But perhaps they are now moving as slow as it gets. It is certain however that many more springs will come and go... A trader must be wise, and adapt in the new balances. One used to profit indefinitely from the perfect equity-bond investment strategy. Now this does not work. Bonds will get bust! And money will flow out of bonds and seek other shelter. Now one can get rich just by holding onto fiat currency. Gold "currency" is fighting for survival... While crypto is beating most kinds of investments. It seems that money is flowing out of Bonds and Gold, and into Equities and Energy. The message is clearly written. Either you find the truth by yourself, or you listen to what others have to say. Just make sure to listen to the right voice. May the truth be your guidance, not wealth. Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground. -Father Grigori P.S. There are two ways to become wealthy. Theft and inheritance. Aristotle Onassis, Billionaire. P.S.2. Buffett longs oil.
TVC:NDQ
by akikostas
7
nasdaq 🌊Greetings, A mirror to my tableau painted for Bitcoin, I surmise that the Nasdaq is engaged in the theatrical rendition of a cycle degree fourth wave. Historically, these fourth waves are prone to a tactical withdrawal into the realm of the prior degree wave four territory. In this distinct instance, the territory in question lurks in close proximity to the abysmal pits of the pandemic nadir. A bullish harbinger would manifest should the Nasdaq maintain an altitude above these pandemic depths for the duration of this bear market. If such a trend is confirmed, i will dare to anticipate an audacious ascent to the lofty summit of $30,000 as we voyage through the decade towards the 2030 agi revolution. --- w4 - $8,100 w5 - $30,000 ☿
NASDAQ:IXICLong
by amethystphantom
SPX/DJI: A Peculiar CorrelationPrice action discounts everything. The most important included. It discounts prejudgement. Price discounts everything every time... ...except when we don't want to allow it to change our hypotheses. High yield rates are synonymous with recession. We are convinced that high yield rates is the thing the majority hates. From this chart above, we conclude that this may not be happening after all... The majority (500 SPX companies) is growing against the minority (30 DJI companies) in periods when yield rates consistently rise. Everything is relative. Recession is relative. Bubbles are relative. A Big-Tech bubble was formed throughout the last two decades. Now, in a high-yield environment, this bubble is fed using derivatives. With incredible correlation, as yield rates increase, the relative density of QQQ derivatives increases. While this is an experimental calculation, only QQQ is showing this kind of derivative filling. SPX and DJI show more stable behavior. Given that in DJI most companies are Big-Tech, the following chart comes up to prove the long-term fundamentals of big vs small. Curiously, yield rates target a range of about 8%, similar to the inflationary highs. Inflation seems to be calming. Many wish rate cuts... A rate cut schedule however may signal the beginning of a recession for the US. Cutting rates will push bond prices higher. Thus, a money outflow from equities and into bonds is created. This outflow will be a cause for SPX weakness. As the SPX*yields chart suggested, a near-term recession may be coming. For the following few years, SPX seems strong as the yield-SPX/DJI correlation showed. It can take decades though for balance to shift decisively. We need both oscillators to get bearish for a convincing move. While Buffett advised investing into oil, but not all oil is the same... (High yield rates for the US will drive prices lower. Yield-SPX correlation points us to SPX bullishness in a high-yield environment) In a progressively higher-yield environment, the outflow from bonds and into equities can get immense. A US debt default will outright crash bond prices, aiding the potential for SPX to move higher. Not all is well for the US though. Money is already seeking other ventures... Don't fall for the news-driven trap. Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground. -Father Grigori P.S. A US Default might not be as light as I describe. Who knows how big the scale of such an event might be... P.S.2. I am posting a link to the indicator I am using: It is highly experimental, but I am beginning to get a good grip of it. Many adjustments may follow. This indicator can be used in any timeframe, and in charts of any scale.
SP:SPX
by akikostas
SPX | Another LieOrdinarily, I wouldn't contemplate them... but these *are* extraordinary times. - G-Man A bank just went broke, oops! It was certainly something we expected. With money literally burning, these kinds of events are expected. So what might be ahead of us? The rate-hike schedule went relatively smooth sailing until now. But just last week something changed... When the first bank failed, the consensus shifted from calm to fearful. Now the market is pricing-in the coming yield-peak. This goes hand-in-hand with the yield-curve correcting. At that time, the market expects only short-term yields to increase, while long-term ones will slowly and steadily drop. Back in 2018, we were begging for the FED to lower the interest rates so as the economy to "grow". Little did we know, that by lowering rates we were pulling the rug from underneath our own feet. Equities growing when cutting rates is cheaty... Now we have the same. We beg for the FED to stop burning money and calm the liquidity crisis that is building-up around us. This bankruptcy may prove an event that causes even a premature FED pivot. At any rate, both charts and simple logic call for a pause in the rate-hike schedule. So what can we expect? What I talked about in the original cake. Unsurprisingly, I expect equities to grow next year. Their price will increase while their true "value" will drop. While a sell-off may occur in the weeks to come, this will give the signal that the bottom is in. I believe however that this capitulation will not be the main "event". The 2018 "Recession" had some violent drops. A sudden 20% drop in 3 months in Q4-2018 was definitely something that conquered the headlines. Passing through that gave the signal that a bottom was already in. The same consensus may be brewing now. Surely the FED cannot tighten further. Surely they will step-in an cautiously calm the financial markets. The calm will come, and it will stay for some months. Until the calm erodes. And if rates drop, the economy itself will silently erode. Until the building collapses, at a time nobody expects it to. Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground. -Father Grigori PS. There are two ways to become rich. Theft and Inheritance. -Aristotle Onassis, Billionaire For the rich to get richer, they must rob. They are robbing the unknowing gamblers/investors. In the era of information, in order to rob you must fool the public by changing-up the picture. Present the eroding building (economy aka. SPX*yields) with a luxurious cover (SPX). And hide the treasure in the dirtiest place of all. Find the treasure. Don't fall for the trap.
SP:SPX
by akikostas
6
SPX | The US is FailingEurope and especially Germany (the biggest power in Europe) have suffered this year due to the energy crisis. There is more background though... The US has performed well until now. This period of US dominance is failing. The chart above is respecting a long-term trend. Now, price is at the bottom with stochastics primed for continuation of the uptrend for Germany. To effectively compare Europe and USA we need to "fix" the indices of each country. Currency strength should get out of the picture for us to better analyze equity performance between countries. So, the DEU40 Index of Germany is multiplied by EURUSD, to get it denominated in Euro. This should always be done when comparing items of different origin (different currency). As an example, for reference I will also analyze Turkey. It is as if Turkey is performing incredibly... The General Index XU100 has gone exponential. If we plug in the currency, the picture changes. There are more evidence against the US... Turkey is set to overperform the US in the years to come... Many countries follow Turkey's example: Honestly, the most dramatic of them all is China. A substantial diversion from it's trend, with a massive double bottom shaping. Will price seek the trend? Is it a new beginning for China, or the beginning of the end? Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground. -Father Grigori
TVC:DEU40
by akikostas
14
SPX | Spaaace!!!Spaaaaaaaaaaace! Let's make a quick party, also bring a cake to celebrate! Make it quick, because it's late and I am tired and I should be sleeping by now. We have reached the top of the world. Well, equities have. It is time for them to lose value big time. Their successor is here, bonds. I have talked about it extensively in my last idea. This is an urgent idea I wanted to post. It seems that day-by-day we might be witnessing the peak in equity price. And this idea is dedicated to the person who gave me the crazy idea to analyze something like that. The idea is simple. We all know the immense yield inversion, it is definitely ugly... What if we found a way to analyze SPX based on the yield inversion itself? That is the idea of @CryptoTaoist and I am very thankful for it. All credit and all the likes this idea gets, are dedicated to this person! Yield curve is a way to calculate money creation (normal times) and money destruction (inverted times). Green is good for money, red is bad. No wonder dollars are green but flammable! We also know that yield inversion is strictly bound to recessions. I will naively try to add these two together, equities and inversions to get an idea of when the recession is actually beginning. Me and others have posted about how the US isn't in a recession yet. This can be seen if we multiply SPX by yields. In a sense, this year we had no recession for the US economy. Please bring a real cake, not this lie... The next part is analyzing whether SPX is performing good or bad considering the current rate of money creation / destruction. In a sense, dividing SPX by the yield curve. If you calculate the yield curve as US10Y-US02Y you will have trouble analyzing it compared with SPX. Captivity of Negativity. Zero values for the denominator make a mess of the chart. You could instead opt for a bodge, to fix the denominator by adding 1. While this works, it is not harmonic enough for my liking. I will create a new yield curve, but instead of standard yields I will calculate it using modified-yields. More about the modified-yields in this idea below. The new yield curve (in blue) is following the standard yield curve (in orange). So it can be considered a satisfactory replacement. Do note that on the numerator we have modified(US10Y). On the denominator we have modified(US02Y+1). I add this +1 so as to further normalize the chart. In normal times US10Y and US02Y have a difference of ~1%. To conclude, we divide SPX with the modified yield curve and we see the following: A surprisingly smooth chart shows us what we expected, that the US isn't in a recession yet. It is also incredibly straight, from 2010-2022 and today. This means that yield curve and SPX correlate very well, if we modify them appropriately. In a sense, dividing SPX by the yield curve calculates the following: How much SPX increases as money gets destroyed? If SPX can swim against the tide (money destruction) this means that it is very strong. A strong economy can hang on even when money is destroyed. US hanging on even with that immense of money destruction, means that it was (and perhaps still is) a very strong economy, which can withstand a heavy beating. Note: DGS2 is a good replacement for US02Y if you want to analyze old historical data. Feel free to notify me of indicators that calculate even older yields of the 2 year bond. But where is the ceiling in this chart? While the 2.0 Retracement proves a significant resistance point, it is inconclusive of whether it is the terminal ceiling. One answer may lie in the following chart: (I knew the cake is a lie!!!) We have divided by M2SL and multiplied by 10^12 to bring numbers to measurable scale. A normalized chart appears, and we also observe a curious ceiling appearing. Price obsessively tries to penetrate this ceiling, just like DJI/M2SL did in 2018-2020 Are we witnessing the very last weeks of the equity bubble? Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground. -Father Grigori Captivity of Negativity is a reference to Bagwell of the Prison Break TV Series.
SP:SPX
by akikostas
11
4-17-23 nqgood morning, here's another idea for you guys - this one is quite neutral, and takes into account all of the current events which are currently taking place in the markets. --- nasdaq looks to have completed 5 waves up from the lows of october. (it could potentially go slightly higher to 13,666). >5 waves is either the beginning or the end of something - >in this case i will have to say it is the beginning of something based on the overall vibe of the market. --- >what i am philosophizing about over here, is a very deep raid into may \ june to flip the current sentiment which is very bullish. >only once this sentiment flip has taken place, do i believe we go to put in that C leg to the upside, to 15.6k ✌
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by notoriousbids
10
Apple by EOYApple based on current 119D movement. I still believe Apple is heading below $100 this year. It took a tad longer to see a drop because of corporate buybacks but that wont change the overall outlook for Apple. Apple's price move from 2018 downward coincides with the Feds tapering. The August 2019 rally also coincides directly with the Fed increasing QE in August 2019. You can see somewhat normal movement until the price breaks out of the channel, although QE was introduced in 2008. No QE = no more rallying. More QE = hyperinflation. Simple as that. I think the Fed will let equities take a bath to save the dollar... but than again, who knows? Data Points: MACD Crossed RSI has room to come down Q1 Guidance was grim
NASDAQ:AAPLShort
by WorldEconomics
9
Tipple Top or Dead Cat BounceWe're taking a look at Apple here. This ticker has been known as a quality stock that investors flock when other tech stocks take a hit. MACD is playing right there in the middle and this could go either way. Money Flow Index is showing that there could be more up to go. Markets have been rocked by the recent banking crisis that is still not over. We're now learning of First Republic continually collapsing, even with backstops and liquidity pledges from big banks. Perhaps this crisis isn't over yet, and with bets of a 25 basis point hike Wednesday, this could snowball into a bigger crisis, but it's one to watch. Central banks are doing all they can to keep this bubble alive, but with declining economies, it's now a matter of time. Manufacturing, retail, housing, autos, are all down, and continuing downward. Joblessness claims continue upward. Layoffs are increasing. You know how it goes... thoughts?
NASDAQ:AAPL
by WorldEconomics