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NDQ

NASADQ trend lines and channelsAnother of my big picture looks at the NASDAQ. You can see that we had a strong rally off the bottom of the blue channel, and right now it is around the middle of the channel. In the big picture though, we have barely come down out of the massive QE and low interest rate bubble created after the financial crisis. I find it hard to get too into this rally, we saw Meta rally 20% even with its latest financial report show something like $4 Billion in losses, but some vague promises about "Year of Efficiency". That tells me that markets are very FOMO right now after a really hard year and are looking for anything to recapture the bubble of 2021. Labor reports continue to be strong, which seems to be feeding the rally, especially so after the Fed's super dovish 0.25% hike and "disinflation" nonsense. The break above the 200 day SMA and crossing of the 20 and 200 day are also really bullish signs. That said, pick your favorite quote about the market: 1) Markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent or 2) Bull markets climb a wall of worry. Good luck. Daily
TVC:NDQ
by Dr_Roboto
MARKETS VERY BULLISH'THE DISINFLATIONARY PROCESS HAS STARTED' - Jerome Powell on 1-2-2023 at the FOMC Meeting These are the wise words of Jerome Powell from the FOMC meeting yesterday. After this meeting markets pumped worldwide as a confirmation of the bullcase. S&P500 Yesterday we closed at a big resistance point. We need a close above and confirmation. Next Target on SPX = 4330 VIX VIX is cracking through support and likely going to see new lows on the larger timeframe. DXY Also DXY cracked bigtime after the meeting. Now at 100 points. My target for DXY is 92. Big rally for equities. US10Y Bonds 10Y also at 3.41% A 3% decline on the charts. Approaching Daily 200 MA. My expectations is that we're going to crack through it after good results from the big companies later today AMAZON & APPLE
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by kadirski
The QE(xperience)Quantitative Easing, a fancy way of describing a bubble, the easy way out. QE Alpha During QE Alpha, speculation lead to a massive bubble, and a painful burst. Technicals: A Fibonacci Retracement shows that price followed closely it's levels. QE Beta During QE Beta, after stabilizing from the Great Depression, and after the end of WW2, economy rose steadily. US being one of the winners of WW2 and with the Marshall Plan deal, had a big advantage compared to the rest of the world. Technicals: The 1.618 retracement proves a significant resistance from above, which behaved as the ceiling for the Great Stagflation period of 1960s. Price reached an indecision where price couldn't penetrate the 1.618 retracement, but didn't want to fall below the 1929 high. A golden bull-flag was created, which escaped to the upside in 1982. QE 1.0 After severe stagflation, a new era of progressively lower yields led to the creation of the mechanism for QE1. It's fuel ended in 2000, and for a decade, the economy had big trouble going forward. It wasn't until the GFC when the foundation was set for the birth of QE2. Technicals: We have reached the 3rd harmonic and this proves big resistance for price. During this time, a harmonic bull-flag shaped. QE 2.0 The QExperience, which until now was unknown and unnamed, had now a name. And we have lived with it until 2021. Derivatives came about and inflated what is left to inflate. Since day 1 of 2022 we are outside it's trend. Technicals: Retracements drawn using the Great Depression peaks/bottoms constitute significant support/resistance levels. Conclusion: This SPX modificator makes historical analysis of SPX more mathematically accurate and clearer to see/analyze. A new era of increasing yields leads to multiplicative problems in the QE machine. Welcome to the QT era. We are already in it, for the past year, we hope you enjoy your stay! Look at the GFC intervention. The modified SPX chart depends on yields. More about it on this chaotic, full-of-mistakes idea. Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground. -Father Grigori
SP:SPX
by akikostas
13
Artificial LifeWe live artificially, in a virtual world. We began this experiment when from actual currency we went to fiat. Money printing is not that simple. A debt based economy is fueled not only by money printing but also by money creation. Let's consider this thought experiment: We have three protagonists, Central Bank (CB), Private Bank (PB), and Human (HS) CB decides that she wants to run the economy, and prints $100. She creates the debt as well, so all is good. CB lends that money to PB and demands some profit (Y) which could be the current US10Y. The Private Bank then, to profit off of the loan, lends some money to a human. Let's pretend that the loan the human gets is ($100+Y). On top of that there will be another tariff that will go towards the PB, let's say again Y. From that simplified transaction, the PB makes more profit than the loan, because she lended some funds from their reserves. So the PB will earn from the human 100+Y*(100+Y) and will pay back to the CB 100+Y. Now remember, the only money in existence is the $100 that the CB made. So technically, nobody can fully pay out their obligation. Everyone is in debt and technically everyone is bankrupt from Day 1. To cover the increasing needs of humans for loans, the PB needs more money, and so lends from the CB. The second time around, the PB borrows $100+y So what the CB does is print some more money, every day we pay out our old obligations and we create more. That story you might already know. I added it because I wanted to make some calculations on it. For us to make sense of it all, we try to find out how many obligations were created from thin air. Scenario 1 If everyone is paid off, including the CB, the extra obligations are y^2+2*y. Now let's consider the percentage we gained from all of this. From a single "y" obligation, we created y^2+2*y obligations. Therefore the rate of change is (final value - initial value)/(initial value). Rate of Change = ROC = y+1 And if we plot SPX/ROC = SPX/(US10Y+1) Scenario 2 Everyone is paid off, except the Central Bank. While this might not be 100% feasible, I believe that it ends up describing much clearer today's life. Now the extra obligations (extra money) in circulation are y^2+2*y+1 And the rate of change from the single "y" obligation is: ROC = y+1+1/y And this is the plot we are witnessing now. (SPX/ROC) Conclusion @SPY_Master invented this chart SPX/(1/US10Y), linked below. Which is basically a ROC of 1/y. So the new ROC comes to fulfill the one before it, and give it a more "mathematically accurate" representation. Where does this leave us? This chart stopped on the 4th retracement. RSI is looking something more beyond precarious. It is fearful. This is another chart on how price moved the last 20 years. I will comment later on some more charts. For now, I will let the indicators speak of themselves. Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground. -Father Grigori
SP:SPX
by akikostas
8
Weapons of Mass Destruction"Derivatives are weapons of mass destruction" - Warren Buffett This chart calculates the gaps we have left behind. All because of massive interday futures trading. A while ago, we didn't have that many derivatives. Interday trading had very little effect. In an overleveraged economy, just how much of current prices are based on actual growth? Indices are hitting new highs, getting inflated from more and more derivative trading and leverage. Just how much of what we see is a bubble? Judging by this chart, we should go back to pre-2015 levels... Trade lightly , for this is hallowed ground. - Wall Street Grigori
DJ:DJI
by akikostas
7
Markets want their equities back.The market is longing equities, they miss them so much... Perhaps there are traders out there who actually long equities right now. And maybe they have their reasons... Yields are showing the first signs of exhaustion. Their chart by itself confirms it. In the main chart above, we see support from the 200EMA (from 2M chart like before) RSI went oversold (penetrated it's ATR channel to the downside) and is now back inside it. This is bullish. This year stochastics were absolutely glued together, it doesn't get any tighter. Now they are ready for an upwards swing. But wait. Not all is good. The "true" SPX chart (SPX*US10Y) is showing it's first signs of weakness. So we have reached the point of "diminishing returns". Any increase in equities is not providing wealth. Like before, RSI, Stochastics and KC don't help. SPX is showing signs of strength for the following months. While I expect a degree of weakness in equities, not all hope is lost. In the meantime, I expect horizontal movement for equities, and some probable growth. Beware, for the cake is still a lie. A couple of extra charts: The chart I added above, the point we missed the trendline was in December 2018. In December of 2018 was the time when Put/Call ratio and VIX took separate ways. And what did equities do after this point in time? PS. With all that conspiracy, I wander why I don't wear a tinfoil hat... yet. Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground. - Father Grigori
SP:SPX
by akikostas
1
NASDAQ/US100/NDQ AnalyseAfter its intensive correction to around 11700, the Nasdaq followed a heavy rejection. And in the second attempt, it continued its downward trend by hitting the trend line and confirming it. Currently, due to the preservation of the four-hour trend line and the signs of the end of the price correction in the daily chart, we can have a more bearish view about this market. . Also, by analyzing the fundamental data from the United States, we can expect an increase of 1.5 percentage points in the interest rate by the end of the year, in which case stocks and indices, especially the Nasdaq, will remain in their downward trend and touch new lows with high probability. This analysis is in no way investment or trading advice.
NShort
by Dalltrade
2
AAPL (Apple Inc)/short term and longer term AnalyzeAfter the short leg that it had in the last week towards the supply areas in the range of $157, Apple shares were accompanied by heavy selling in several consecutive days. Yesterday, after the publication of the statement of the Federal Reserve and during Mr. Powell's speech, there was heavy selling pressure. The overall structure of the chart is currently bearish, and by confirming the head and shoulder chart pattern that is forming in the 4-hour time frame, we can set short-term, medium-term and long-term price targets for this stock, respectively, as we have specified. This analysis is not a trading recommendation at all and is only a personal opinion.
NASDAQ:AAPLShort
by Dalltrade
1
NASDAQ bottomed or fall 20% by March?Here is my chart combining channels, trend lines, and waves. You can see that the NASDAQ has been fighting to stay inside the blue channel since mid-October, but has been trapped under the black channel. If it is going to hold, then this would be a good place. That would keep the blue channel bull rally intact. However, this week's rejection off the top of the channel is not a great sign. There is still a good possibility that we still need to complete the wave C of the larger ABC correction before this is over. Right now, Wave C stands at a 0.618 fib extension of Wave A which is pretty small. If it goes lower, then a bounce and support at 0.786 seems logical, which is around the peak before the COVID crash. That could be a good long entry. I would not rule out something closer to the 1.0 level before we are done. If that does come to be, then that takes us down to the red trend line created off the bottoms of the 2018 and 2020 corrections. That is the 9000 range (could overshoot down to 8700) and would be a great place for a big long entry. Anything lower than that, and, well, lets not think about.
U
by Dr_Roboto
NDQ US 100 INDEX: MARKET MAKERS MAGIC??DESCRIPTION: In the chart above I have provided a MACRO analysis of NDQ that is in fact showing strong signs of PENDING CAPITULATION but I will leave the rest to INDIVIDUAL INTERPRETATION. POINTS: 1. DEVIATION OF 1,000 POINTS is where NDQ usually finds appropriate CONSOLIDATION to then draw out SUPPLY & DEMAND POCKETS. 2. RSI is DANGEROUSLY OVER EXTENDED and looks ready for some PULLBACK. 3. MACD is CONSOLIDATING and moving closer to its MEDIAN SIGNALING A BIG MOVE IS ON THE WAY. *IMPORTANT (FOOD FOR THOUGHT): ALL SIGNS ARE BEARISH BUT IS THAT WHAT THE MARKET MAKERS WANT US TO THINK? TO MANY PEOPLE ARE BEARISH AND PLACING MONEY ON PUTS. JUST DOUGHT MARKET MAKERS WOULD ALLOW FOR EVERYONES CONTRACTS TO EXPIRE IN THE MONEY. SCENARIO #1: A BULLISH scenario would require a hold of 11,000 POINTS followed by SIDEWAYS MOVEMENT or a BREAK of TREND. SCENARIO #2: A BEARISH scenario would require a lose of 11,000 POINTS followed by an AGGRESSIVE BREAK of TREND to the DOWNSIDE. FULL CHART LINK: www.tradingview.com TVC:NDQ
TVC:NDQShort
by DGSTBROKERACC
Peak Equities?Happy Dump Year! What a shocking year... equities dropping, bond market failing and energy skyrocketing. Almost a perfect storm ain't it? But something ain't right... Have we passed the dump year or are we just started? Which number will we be talking about in the future, 22 or 23? And another question... have equities peaked? For the past year, bonds have been outperforming equities. But equities have been holding relatively strong despite the monumental increase in yields. Now we might have reached the point of diminishing returns. Every move we make is beginning to turn up against us. The similarity to the Great Depression is stunning. Stochastics don't help the situation much. Even if a total crash does not occur, the product looks fated to move horizontally. The cover chart pinpoints us on a fib retracement, with much resistance above. The drawn levels were respected throughout the last 15 years. Other equity comparisons follow suit... The charts above attempt to objectively calculate the price of equities compared to the cost of money. This chart below attempts to calculate the excess performance SPX has, compared to the performance of an investment in bonds. It is further modified by PPIACO, the producer price cost. Printed on the chart are some beautiful bull flags, and some very historically-important retracements. Equities will have much trouble gaining traction compared to bonds. This year, the relative performance of equities compared to bonds, showed a 60% drop. So 2022 was definitely a Dump Year. This is massive of a figure for the equity market, measured as relative performance. Also the bond market has suffered a lot this year. If equities have already sustained a massive hit compared to bonds, who will be the next to take the dive? Since their product (their cumulative profit) has just now showed signs of stagnation. Will equities drop again or bonds, or both? It smells like 2023 will have some sort of dump... An analysis of equity mutual funds compared to bond-focused mutual funds could have a lot to say... I leave it as an exercise for the TradingView community. Feel free to tag me if you analyze anything regarding it! PS. Happy Dump Days as of now (The peak of the product chart), for the main indices are: DJI: Nov. 8, 2022 SPX: Nov. 10, 2022 NDQ: Oct. 25, 2022 Take a look at price action of the indices after that day if you are curious on how real prices translated from that day onwards. Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground. -Father Grigori
TVC:DJI
by akikostas
9
The NASDAQ FractalWhile we are talking about the Bitcoin fractal / logistic curve, I decided to analyze the second bubbly candidate, NDQ/NDX. The .com bubble was fast and extensive, so in retrospect it is easy to see that it was a big bubble. The 2008-2021 big-tech mania may not be apparent but if we just rescale the chart on the price axis (not date) we see that the 1994-2000 part is highly correlated to the 2015-2021 price action. This is the bubble part of the two growths. The overlapping part is quite satisfactory in the way it moves together. Considering the simplistic method of analysis I did. We should scale things down since growth follows a fibonacci movement, not a linear one. Nature forces each growth to be some golden ratio smaller than the previous one. Either we like it or not... I drew a retracement from the 2000 peak to the 1994 beginning, and moved it to 2015 as a start. The bubble part of the 2015-2021 growth is significantly lower when compared to the 1994-2000 growth. Do note that in both instances a 6 year period is analyzed. The decreased rate of change is apparent. There are numerous comparisons one can make. Again retracement is copied and moved, not rescaled in any way. I always tried to find a peak in NDQ. It wasn't until I tried fitting the .com bubble to the today's bubble that everything made sense. The chart got completed on it's own. A theoretical peak in NDQ will be on the 1.618 ratio of the .com bubble. It is quite far from here but with this candle pattern it makes sense. I have basically copied the 1985-2022 period and pasted on 2006. As I said before, the chart is rescaled only on price. And would you like to know how much I ended up scaling the chart? By a factor of .618 Conclusion: NASDAQ has it in it's DNA. Periods of incredible gains and periods of painful losses. This year it significantly underperformed the other main indices. For the near future, with so many new technologies coming, it wouldn't be extreme to witness another bubble after a painful drop. We are dependent on technology, so it's sector will gain. Final note: Bubbles and their patterns can be incredible sometimes. 80 years apart, back then with pen and paper, in 2000 on computer screens. Yet the bubble peak is identical. PS. It appears from the chart, in pure speculation that sometime in the future we will violate this important trendline. Perhaps in 2040's robots will overtake the world and we will abolish technology once and for all. Curiously, a while back I listened to a song titled 2042 by Active Member. It's in Greek so don't bother looking for it if you don't understand the language. Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground. -Father Grigori
NASDAQ:NDX
by akikostas
3
SPX Daily Harmonic Elliott Wave AnalysisOverview: it's been a few weeks that the price action has been really tricky to count. Until yesterday, we had the idea that we have peaked for wave b of Z and have started wave c of Z, which was invalidated yesterday. Update: with the higher high made yesterday, I am considering the following scenario: we have completed a triple zigzag in wave b. One thing that is worth noting is a fact I mentioned on the update of Nov. 14th: I have 4132.75 as the potential target for wave b peak . The peak of yesterday was 4132.22! Note: A very important challenge for the readers is to prove this statement to practice HEW: the hourly count I published on Dec. 8th and the current hourly count has the exact same structure of subwaves. So, we have basically not changed a lot on the hourly count, just the labels were changed because of the higher high made yesterday. Note: I repeat a valid point made on my Dec. 1st update: "There is a very important point in this count, as I warned before, this count can turn into an impulsive wave with equal probability and validity, meaning the bottom is in (this is a fact in the Harmonic Elliott wave theory that a triple zigzag can be also an impulsice wave since they both have the same structure of subwaves). How do we know which count is playing out? for now, we don't really care, both counts point to the fact that we should still head higher and get rejected probably mid-December to go lower. The structure and extent of that pullback is what determines the correct scenario." Note: the broadening triangle on NDQ is a very bearish formation, but it needs breakdown through the lower trendline to confirm.
EIGHTCAP:SPX500
by bamdadsalarieh
Double bottom confirmed on the NasdaqA simple reversal trade setup on the Nasdaq. The tech index confirmed a double bottom pattern breakout on November 11th, the day after an epic rally which is among the best days of 2022. The breakout has not seen any momentum as different Fed heads have come out saying different things, and some geopolitical tensions. The markets are still determining if the Fed will slow down on rate hikes and if inflation will slow down. These two things are a topic for a different post. Let's talk about the chart we see. The Nasdaq saw buyers jump in right at the retest zone of the breakout pattern. This is just typical of what we expect from a breakout trade. Traders can either enter now and place their stops below the breakout zone, or await for the recent highs of 11,850 to be taken out before jumping in long. The latter is the more safer way to play and increases your probability of success as it confirms a higher low. Since trading is a business of probabilities, this is a very prudent way to play the trade. There are also TWO other charts which are pointing at higher markets: First, the US 10 year yield is the chart you must be watching to determine where stocks are going. We have a reversal pattern on this, and as yields drop, stock markets rise. Of course, a move into bonds needs to be assessed properly. We have seen a case where the 10 year dropped because of fear (the Poland-Ukraine missile issue). But generally, as yields drop, it is the market pricing in the Fed being less hawkish and even pausing rate hikes soon. Secondly, the US Dollar Index (DXY) heading lower is a positive sign for markets for the same reason as above. A less hawkish Fed. The DXY also broke down and we are awaiting our first lower high. Both of these continuing lower means a higher chance that stock markets, and yes the Nasdaq, continue their reversal recovery. But of course, the Fed in December could put a major halt to this move.
OANDA:NAS100USDLong
by Uncharted-FX
1
Apple iMarket 14Apple IS the market. The peak of the market has a name and a shape, and the name is eyephone and the shape is apple. The recent crisis in stock market, didn't affect companies like Apple. They did not fall for the FED trap. It is not surprising though, since it is the apple month of September. And after the great reset they will be one of the survivors. PS. The orange chart is DXY*SPX. It is the normal appearance of SPX. Not everything you see is real. This similarity is hidden in plain sight. We don't move where apple moves, we are apple(s). Make sure to read the previous idea. If this chart looks coincidental, do realize that the recent "recession" is nothing more than a panic-buying-selling of stocks caused by an explosion of dollar value. The foundations of economy are alive for now. We are not in a recession, yet... Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground. -Father Grigori
NASDAQ:AAPL
by akikostas
Inverted yields and odd weeksThis chart shows the periods with inverted 10y2y yields. Usually inversion doesn't lead to recession, like 2008. However the similarities with 2000 are striking. 3 Years ago we had a brief yield inversion, like in 1998. Then a second inversion occurred, bringing prices down with it. The same happens now. Half of the bubble burst occurred with yields inverted. Therefore it isn't necessary for yields to normalize for us to drop. We are in a bubble and it probably has burst. And a less interesting part of the idea follows: Yesterday some uninteresting-number-of-weeks candles closed. It was fun checking out where we are and how RSI reacts. This has nothing to do with trading. I just love charts. I didn't bother with 1W chart because I consider it common. In the following charts SPX is analyzed. I could post them in a new idea but got bored... 2W - we couldn't escape the ribbon, and RSI is flirting with its EMA. It is a tad lower than 50. 3W - RSI below its EMA and below 50. 4W - A bull trap on the price appears. But we are above the ribbon (for now?). RSI just barely above 50. 6W - A bullish engulfing or something? And then an inverted hammer appears. Even though stochastic RSI reached the bottom, this doesn't mean that there is enough buildup to push RSI upwards. It takes two to dance/grow. Also EMA of RSI is helpful to me. RSI passing it provides me with an early signal of trend change. 9W - In this chart, the similarities to 2008 end. It resembles the .com bubble burst. It resembles the region just before the October 1998 rally. This one is less grim to the charts before. The candle however is a little mixed. 12W - Kinda bullish? I dunno... RSI made a higher low 18W - 2014-2022 stochastic RSI shows clear divergence. Stochastic producing lower highs, and with this candle it is confirmed. 36W - RSI and it's stochastic show a close similarity to September of 2000, the .com bubble burst. Finally, I will add this DJI chart showing us where we are in history. Let the drop commence I guess?
NASDAQ:NDX
by akikostas
3