SPX | GuillotineThe anatomy of these two bodies are identical. The murderer the same.
The "plateau" that was shaped in 2004-2006, is identical to 2018-2020
The chopped off head exactly the same.
Traders in 2008 had no clue (?) what would happen. (I doubt it, many knew very well what was happening)
Now that we have a direct counterpart, and a not so distant one, comes the question. Can we make it?
Was the 2008 crash a phenomenon of bad crisis management, or was it caused by a deeply rooted problem that rendered the crash inevitable?
A housing bubble then, a housing bubble now. Companies going bankrupt, and there are lots of them. And big companies close shops, change country of business etc.
Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground.
-Father Grigori
NDQ
NDQ/NDX/IXIC | Exactly the same (except the blow-off top)Please read to the end, for a probable explanation that falsifies this one.
We are living the precise events that led up to the 2000 .com bubble burst and the subsequent 2001 recession. Now however, there was no blow-off-top event to make the two events identical.
Back in 1998, there was a "black swan" event, which was more apparent in DJI/SPX. This was caused by a crisis in Russia's economy. In 2019, a world-wide crisis caused the well-known crash. The progress after it is completely identical.
This can be further validated if you compare fundamentals. And also analyze DJI/SPX/NYA.
Much of the damage may have already occurred. But much more pain remains, perhaps immense. Germany is about to collapse (or already collapsed). Also war, food/water crisis, inflation, a destroyed production chain, are not ingredients for growth.
I am also adding this chart, which shows that probably the worst is coming, since it looks like we are barely falling.
PS. And now follows a conspiracy story:
Let there be a very rich man, who wants to be even richer. Since he is so wealthy, he could cause an earthquake. He would shake the box of economy, up and down at the time he pleases. And he confused the people, because the box of economy has taken a shape we all have seen before. In the era of information, who can't possibly see what is in front of him? Who on earth could not have possibly remembered the shape in front of them?
And as a different story said, everyone but a child could see the kings clothes (the king was nude).
And everyone feared, and sold everything they had to save themselves. And the rich man shook the box again and again, until it looked like we landed. And everyone thought that they were safe because it looked like it, and they bought again. And everything went up again. And the king was happy, because everyone saw his clothes, everyone followed him, and everyone bought when he wished...
And at the right time, he cracked the box and took your money. What an anticlimatic end to a story!
Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground.
-Father Grigori
Market Update 9/22/22Intro 0:00
BTC 0:30
APPL 2:18
VIX 11:51
HSI: 14:45
XRP/BTC and BTC Analysis 16:10
I refer between VIX, APPL and BTC in-between 11:51 and 14:45
I go over where I expect things could start for movements tomorrow and then I go in to what happened today and why I think we can end up at certain places and what targets bulls and bears may be fighting for to get what they want. Non-Short-Term Bears don't always want to sell nor do similar bulls always want to buy. Consolidation can be key.
Market Update 9/21/22Time Stamps:
0:00 APPL
4:00 VIX
6:28 APPL
9:12 BTC
18:02 ETH/BTC
19:06 GOLD
19:24 OIL
Lets see what happens.
I go over what I want to see then a recap of the last couple days and today and then I go over BTC towards the end and the big trend we have been in for months.
Long story short, I hope we get bought up a small amount tomorrow so that we can have a clean break further down and it wont seem like we are getting oversold. Though, I can't be annoyed by anyone selling because they want to be in in cash. It just makes sense as a defensive option. So to that, we may just fall off a cliff. I really don't mind being oversold though, as I prefer being bullish on/after big drops.
To me, the indexes have no real support underneath where they currently are and if APPL drops, It will drag things down pretty far. I expect Appl to head towards 122 in the near future, but well have to see what happens. Appl around 22 would coincide with the indexes possibly hitting around 20-38% down, which isn't bad considering there could be a nice amount of overselling and an easy ride back up like we had in 2020.
Stock Indexes At Major SupportsAll major stock indexes including NASDAQ100 S&P500, NASDAQ Composite, and Russel 2000 are at the bottom of their uptrend channels.
They could all break down, but it seems very unlikely as all asset managers are significantly bearish going into support. When we finally rally these guys are going to be force buyers the whole way up. Initial jobless claims are trending down since its peak in July. PPI which leads CPI has also dropped significantly the last two months. Asset managers are betting on a recession that isn't coming. The Fed hikes rates into a strong economy. They drop rates in a weak economy. When you see the Fed pause hikes and consider dropping rates, that's when you get scared.
All we need now is something positive to happen.
Market Update/Outlook 9/20/22I am pre-positioned in a small size of OTM puts incase the vix looks bad, affects the premarket tomorrow and I cannot position properly. The places I would get out or where I would add on at, are mentioned in the video.
Its too much work to find them all and type them all, so just watch the video.
Cya all tomorrow at 9:15 EST for the full market day.
Market Rotation from risk to safety.1st Vertical Line in bottom two charts show risk assets peaking such as Nasdaq and Bitcoin while the top two charts suggest a bottom confirmation by both US dollar and US 10 year treasury bills.
Horizontal line shows major penetration of support and/or resistance for all four charts. Penetration to the upside for top 2 charts, while penetration to the downside for risk assets.
2nd vertical line marks the point of penetration for support and/or resistance.
Why the strong correlation?
Market rotation from risk to safety and there's no other way to buy US treasury bills than to pay with US dollars.
Market Update 9/15/2022Tomorrow I will put all of these into one idea and only update that, so you all will see everything in one spot. Sorry for making it difficult (People on tradingview).
Watch the video. The key parts are important and should not be ignored. This is not a video about appl, but the whole market and BTC.
Soft Landing ???A Head and Shoulders is probably forming on decreasing volume. Or maybe it will evolve in a bear flag, who knows?
We are still below the downwards trendline.
If H&S doesn't form, well, I'm wrong again...
See you on the weekend of 24-25 of September. Only then we will find out.
I hope the guy in German parliament is talking about financial collapse and not nuclear war.
GLHF
Market Recap and Current MovementsI stream every market day at 9:15 EST. 15 minutes before the us stock market opens. Come join us. I usually stream for 4-7 hours every day and will answer any market related questions that I can.
This is a 20 minute video, but I talk fast. There is a lot to cover, but it is worth listening to.
This goes over more than just Nasdaq, but Nasdaq is the core of the movement having a potential gain of 6.5% from its current location before facing great resistance. If you watch the video you will understand why I do not only look at nasdaq to look for movement on the nasdaq or for the overall market direction.
I go over USD/JPY, NDQ, APPL, SPY, and VIX mainly.
I mention oil at the end, but to save you the trouble, there seems to be a possibly huge move incoming at ~$80
You can check the linked ideas below to get a more in depth view of how we got to here, but I think the video wraps it up well.
Top pick for Forex is still UDSJPY, though there may be a pull back based on current bullishness in the stock markets affecting the DXY.
Joe Gun2Head Trade - Sell off to continue on NASDAQ?Trade Idea: Selling NASDAQ
Reasoning: Sell off to continue on NASDAQ?
Entry Level: 12012
Take Profit Level: 11615
Stop Loss: 12144
Risk/Reward: 2.95:1
Disclaimer – Signal Centre. Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis , like all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Your use of the technical analysis , as would also your use of all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features.
NDQ / US100 ➷➷The movements of this stock match my previous analysis, and it will continue to drop ➷➷ this week..
And the graphic explains the analysis and shows the stock's upcoming movement.. So you can take advantage of the analysis and enter into good deals...
If you have any questions, contact me..
good luck traders
DJI, SPY, NDQ, BTC, NVDA, SPXS, VIX17 minute video. A lot of information packed in here.
I don't like typing things out when I have 20 things to say, so I'm not really going to do that.
TLDW; Things look bad.
If this video was useful to you, boost the idea so that more people find these the ideas and join the the streams everyday at 9:15 EST: 15 minutes before the market opens.
Stock market DJI - Great depression in 2035 | Elliott Wave 1896
I am extremely bullish on the stock market, that's for sure, but I will tell you when I expect a great depression comparable to 1929-1932.
Of course, it's really hard to predict the huge collapse, but let's take a look at it from a logical, mathematical, and Elliott Wave perspective.
On the 12M (1 year) chart, we can see multiple bullish trendlines that have been destroyed. These trendlines usually last for decades, and they're a reliable indicator of upcoming recessions.
Also, we can use the classic standard price action and look for lower swing lows, which indicates a corrective structure.
As per my Elliott Wave analysis, we are currently finishing a massive 3rd impulse wave that could peak sometime around 2035. Then we will have a great depression (wave 4) and then the fifth impulse wave that can last for another 100 years.
We can see that the first impulse wave lasted for approximately 14 612 days and the second impulse wave lasted for approximately 11690 days, which is an 80% decline in time. We can assume that the final impulse wave will also have an 80% decline in time.
We are absolutely not in a recession (and I agree with the FED here) and a lot of people are calling for a massive stock market crash. But these people are calling it every year.
If you like my technical analysis, please hit "Like" and "Follow"!