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NDQ

Nasdaq 5x Overvalued, Irrational?The Nasdaq is worth about 10x of what it was in 1990, in real terms, if you take away all the money printing. The support structure from the 1990s that decayed in 2008 has now been resistance for a *decade*, and now that we're at a historical zone of sky high valuations and overboughtness, it wouldn't surprise me if it dropped 75% from here. What if there is more money printing, you say? Wouldn't that just make everyone rich? Well, the dollar loses about 5% of its spending power per year historically, so if you had simply held since 2000, you'd have lost roughly about 80-90% of that spending power. It's important to not repeat the same fallacy as people did in the 80s and 90s. It blew up in people's faces even back when the economy was supported by stronger fundamentals and there was a greater widespread success of passive wealth accumulation. Traders are delusional, and perhaps maybe not temporarily on a short-term or medium-term timeframe where prices are highly random, but especially on a long-term one. The Federal Reserve has been trying to float this long-term sentiment for a while now, in the face of terrible fundamentals, and now they don't really have any ammo left. Just look how the price tries to trace the white trendline but continues to lag and has remained below. This tells you all you need to know without even getting into monetary policy. But even if you look at monetary policy, look at the ammo they are using: they are jawboning claims that the job market is strong because job openings are high, which is a trailing indicator. So chances are in 3 or 6 months, job openings will contract and they will no longer have any poor excuses to linger in their knob turning, hand waving, and making 180 degree pivots in their decision making process. Not to mention, job openings are contracting at a pace only seen since, you guessed it, 2020! Even if they stop jawboning, what padding do they have? 1.5T of reverse repo? That pales in comparison to the 9T that was printed to prop up prices in 2020. Also, just look at some of the companies on the list: JD.com (Chinese company) Baidu (Chinese company) Starbucks Blizzard Do you really think that this hodgepodge of companies are fundamentally strong? Why would anyone put their future in the hands of an index with distorted, contrasting interests and motivations, and foreign ownership? Is that not literally the definition of irrational? irrational; adjective (1) Not endowed with reason. (2) Affected by loss of usual or normal mental clarity; incoherent, as from shock. (3) Marked by a lack of accord with reason or sound judgment. If that doesn't describe the situation perfectly, I don't know what does. Eventually, this thing goes down. With or without money printing. I hope you enjoyed this idea. Let me know what you think, thanks for taking a look, and don't forget to hedge your bets!
TVC:NDQShort
by fringe_chartist
9
≈ 5% SWINGTRADE NDQ10012150 to 11550 5% Swing Trade 600 Points Trade Opportunity. The bottom of this tremendous bear market could be in already. Nobody knows. if this was a short squeeze, the market will decline, right? If this was THE bottom or a temporary bottom, the likelihood that even if this was the start of a bull market, after a few days of straight upward movement, a correction would also be normal. Having this mind, the wedge pattern, which could fulfill itself will underline this theory. So, of course, anything can happen, but I think the odds are not too bad for this one. This is no financial advice, only sharing thoughts to our community! Let me know what ya´ll think Best, gqt
UShort
by GER-Quality-Trades
SPX The Worst May Be Yet To ComeAnyone who has followed me for a while has already seen some iteration of this chart, but I bring it up again today because it has proven to be one of the most reliable charts to date. It is essential to understand when we are looking at charts, sometimes it is not about the actual chart itself but rather what the data means and the implications. We are in unprecedented times. The FED is behind the curve and now they are trying to gain back control of the Inflation Train but there is only one problem; The train has already left the station. Prediction after prediction of Inflation is "Transitory", "Peaking", "Controlled". They even have gone as far to say Inflation was a "good" thing. www.washingtonpost.com www.forbes.com www.cnbc.com This one in particular used to be Titled "Why the inflation we're seeing now is a good thing" But they have since changed that to something more cryptic as if we the people are dumb: www.msnbc.com I just wanted to establish that before I went any deeper. Credibility is not seen in today's world. Currently, Total Revolving Credit is at a historical all-time high by a long shot. (Please go check out a chart representing this data) It not only represents the hardship most are suffering but it solidifies the fact that most can't maintain their current lifestyle with cash. As financial situations grow tighter, it forces people to then start running their credit in the face of the "Recession". This is not only bad for now but it condemns the future as well. Because that problem is only solved by rapid economic deceleration or by propping the market back up with Easy Monetary Policy. But there is a critical issue here, the FED can't possibly pivot Dovish now. Their party has only just started. QE/Stimulus, paired with Macro cyclical patterns, and Geopolitical tensions force the FED to stay the course. If they pivot now, not only will no real problem be solved, but it will inherently make them worse. Back on the Credit Delima, we have also seen the sharpest credit impulse contraction in 10 years. Liquidity runs all markets, when liquidity is dried, it causes mayhem. Okay so what about USOIL and why is it on the chart? Well as you can see, each time USOIL has significantly deviated from its current trend, it has led to a recession. 6 Times in the last 20+ years has this perfectly signaled economic hardship. This time is no different. Even further still, 2 out of the last 3 times, it was not until after USOIL has peaked is when the most pain was to be had. Combine this with 50 Year High Inflation, War, FED hiking into a slowing economy, QT, Supply Chain shocks, Sanctions/Embargoes, Energy soaring, and Gas at $4-5 in every state in America for the first time in history. Ask yourself this, if this recipe isn't enough for concern, what exactly is? Continuing on, let's focus on a few other charts: First, let's just take a look at where SPX & NDQ currently stand: As you can see, both have only just now reached Mid-Channel and still have quite a ways until the bottom of the channel. Second, let's remind ourselves of the US10Y-US02Y Curve inversion that took place a few months back. This inversion has predicted the last 6+ Recessions, just as the exponential rise in Energy has. Here is my first post explaining this correlation with SPX: Here is an Updated View: As you can see, it may even be headed for a second Inversion which would likely be another huge red flag. Third, Lets look at the Tech Leader $AAPL and see where it stands. $AAPL represents the leader of the tech market and where AAPL goes, the market goes. Here is my most recent post: Fourth lets look at the DXY and consider where it stands. It currently is in the midst of a 30+ year breakout, further proving the economic hardship most are facing. Furthermore, in times of great fear and inflation, money is usually the last thing people want but yet here we see the opposite playing out. Complete deviation of a regular historical trend: And Fifth, let's just speculate on the worst possible outcome here, which I did a little while back when I Noticed Elon Musk somehow timed the exact top in the Market (See for yourself below): I thought his perfect timing was really strange and led to the credibility of his words. Although the chart seems extreme now, from a technical standpoint it absolutely is possible as I've laid out. Although it's important to consider the worst, it is critical you don't expect the worst. Many things can change between now and the end of the year which is why it is important to stay updated and pivot when needed. I can honestly go on about specific factors such as the housing market and the VC's/Hedge Funds controlling supply while cutting out the regular buyer. Not to mention companies like Zillow doing the same exact thing, basically acting like a Broker to the overall housing market. Cutting out an entire class of buyers because theoretically, they don't ever have to sell to regular families just trying to buy a home. Global food shocks from inflation make fertilizer unaffordable to harvest the right yield of crop. As well as the Ukraine War making it even more difficult. China causing supply chaos because they have locked down their country again, 2 years into the pandemic. This thesis is only valid in the scenario it takes far longer to tackle these challenges listed above. If the FED and the overall World Economy can begin to tame these challenges better than what we have seen thus far, things will begin to become more positive. No matter what, these challenges must be solved not only for the health of the economy but for the betterment of the people. If you've made it this far, I thank you immensely and you will be rewarded for putting in the effort now to understand the big picture. Leave any opinions below;
SP:SPX
by NoOneWhoIsSomeone
123
DXY gonna hav a crayZ move when the FOMC meeting happensThe fib time zone that I have drawn on the DXY chart tells that there is going to be a strong move but as anybody who has used fib time zones knows, it doesn't say in what direction. The bond market has (according to traders better than me) priced in so a 75bps hike, so that is certainly on the cards (I don't think that that will happen tbh but I'm pulling that out arse its just a hunch I guess) however we will have to see what happens in just under 14hrs when the Producer Price Index is published which should tell us a what the Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index will tell us. The FED on their own website say "The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) judges that an annual increase in inflation of 2 percent in the price index for personal consumption expenditures (PCE), produced by the Department of Commerce, is most consistent over the longer run with the Federal Reserve’s mandate for maximum employment and price stability. The FOMC uses the PCE price index largely because it covers a wide range of household spending." so if tomorrow the PPI is low I will definitely consider longing BTC. My only hesitation however is since this move down has been so strong just a limp ass support wont cut it and we need to go back to 20k from the previous market high to trigger a real reversal and for the SPX/NDQ the same is true and that support would be the high before the Corona market crash in late February 2020 (the opinion of a better trader than myself also). We will see
TVC:DXY
by Augustus_Flavius_IV
NASDAQ move up to test 14000 or backdown to retest recent low?Here are my core trading channels and trend lines for the NASDAQ. NDQ is currently holding just under the midline of the down channel. You can see that we had a bounce off the support of the black channel and midline of the purple channel. NDQ is still looking pretty oversold, but at a clear decision point. IMO, a retest of the recent low for support is most probable and then a test of the resistance of both the red down channel and the purple channel around 14000. We could bounce right from here to that level as the other option. A new low is always an option if we get a retest and it fails, but it is not clear that the market is ready to fall that far yet after such a big sell off the last several months. 1D
U
by Dr_Roboto
Ethereum (ETH): More Downside To ComeClear Head & Shoulders Pattern played out very similarly to the 2018 Bear Market. The last time we saw this type of breakdown we can see the bottom wicks were very similar and did NOT suggest a bottom. The First Support is at $1450. The Second Support, if we see a World Wide Recession play out, is $460. I know that the second target seems impossible but I promise you if a World Recession plays out, it will become realistic VERY fast. For now, we just target First support. Hope this helps, Good luck!
BITSTAMP:ETHUSDShort
by NoOneWhoIsSomeone
6
NASDAQ BEARISH BIASNDQ = Current price @ 11,923 The Nasdaq has yet again rejected resistance at 12,560 for the 5th time now and is heading back to previous support @ 11,699 The Nasdaq has been in a bearish trend since the war in Ukraine started what is fueling the bearish move is actually inflation worries in the US as well as poor Q1 reports from companies like Amazon, Netflix, etc. We expect the Nasdaq to continue its bearish trend to at least 10,999 which is the next major support level before reversing back to 12,000. After that we expect a retracement back to 11,699 before continuing its bullish movement and breaking the major down-trendline. Short term key Buy levels for day traders @ 11,699 @ 10,999 Long term the Nasdaq is always a buy if you are holding/Long-term trader Note: this is just an analysis based on technical analysis & current events. All investments involve risk, our analysis and trading strategy does not guarantee future results or returns. Investors are fully responsible for any investment decisions they make.
TVC:NDQShort
by fxspott
$AAPL Giving A Clear WarningAs you can see by the chart, I have labeled every time $AAPL has deviated from its current trend and what follows right after. This has been a consistent pattern over the last decade and I believe today is no different. Powell reaffirmed his fight for Price Stability yesterday and will continue to do so until the mission is accomplished. 50 Year High Inflation, War, FED hiking into a slowing economy, QT, Supply Chain shocks, Sanctions/Embargoes, Energy soaring, Gas at $4 in every state in America for the first time in history. This is not Price Stability . It is a funny thing really, One of the most famous quotes in Investing is, "Don't fight the FED", But everyone only seems to listen when this suggests higher prices. Markets work in both ways. I called something similar back on January 20th, you can see it here: I think we potentially are finally seeing it play out. Good luck, everyone!
NASDAQ:AAPL
by NoOneWhoIsSomeone
9
$SPX Bearish Harami on Daily chartI'm not that big on candlestick patterns, but a Bearish Harami is essentially a failed continuation of a prior bullish session(s) or rally. SPX posted a bullish close on the 12th and the 13th, but failed to follow through with a third session on Monday. Instead you saw a choppy session where the bulls and bears tugged a bit intraday, but the SPX lost steam at the end of the session and posted a red candlestick. It was also fairly indecisive so while one can say that it's a toss up for tomorrow, you'd rather bet on a continuation of the larger downward trend that we're in, rather than some sort of coin flip reversal. Same daily stick pattern can be seen on the NDQ (Nasdaq 100) and RUT (Russell 2000).
SP:SPXShort
by grenadetrade
NASDAQ about to repeat the crash of Sept/Oct 2008?The selling in the market seems to be increasing by the day. It looks like we could see some support at the current price, but looking back at Sept 2008 shows that we could still be in for a serious drop. IMO, so far the patterns are similar, except this year's correction is far more aggressive. I noted on the cRSI where they seemed to have a similar pattern. I personally don't think the current trend line will hold for long and expect that we at least hit the 10,000 level. I think 7700 is possible because markets have a tendency to overshoot in both directions, just like the bull rally/bubble of the last 2 years was way above the green trading channel from 2009 bottom. Here is an interesting look at the NASDAQ stocks above the 200 day SMA. As you can see, we still have more stocks that can go below the 200, and it can stay there for a while.
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by Dr_Roboto
3