NDQ
Short-term analysis NDQIt seems that it can continue its reduction to the specified area by failing its support
Nasdaq potential support area 14000I assume pull back 50% after bull strong att bear.
now bull need to rest for awhile for next attack
NDQ prepare for a BEAR market Slightly passing the previous peak to make people beliave and go long as much as possible, but i will be horrifying for all who are long at this time. There will be an event or monitary policy error or move from the goverment for an excuse for this that is going to happen. Right now there are factors that are precursors to the recession, but no one will believe that it is happening and it is coming. My prediction is that the stock market will be in a bear market for 2-2,5 years with target of 4100 of NDQ.
SPX and M2 money supply - Fed induced bubbleWhen they say don't fight the fed, I am pretty sure this chart explains why. The massive growth of the S&P over the last 2 years is perfectly correlated to the Fed's unprecedented financial manipulation. Let's all hope that it does not come crashing down just as fast. It will be a miracle for the Fed to engineering a "soft landing" after such reckless policy for the past two years. They should have raised rates last year this time, then we would have had a chance. Good luck.
Relief Rally Over For Nasdaq100?I'm expecting that what we are currently seeing on the Nasdaq is a relief rally and that we will see another leg to the downside to around 13000. I will start averaging into buy positions from the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level.
Happy trading!
Linton
Do you see what I see?The scale is from 0-300. Combines the Russell 2000, Nasdaq, and S&P percentage of stocks above the 200 day MA.
Looks like the market should take caution if you take into account the trend of inflection points...
Good luck and hedge your bets!
Two triangles in oneFor the Nasdaq100 and S&P500 !!
Huge risk / reward if it goes to the rejection zone.
Btw I'm thinking to sell only when my technical indicators will turned bearish, and not at a fixed price.
There is a risk of the Nasdaq symmetrical triangle pattern leads to a break trough the support.
Be careful to disable your buy orders during the pre and post-market, a breakaway gap could easily invalidate these patterns.
Idea to be used with your favourites technical indicators (Squeeze momentum indicator , MACD etc...).
I will set a BUY LMT at +0.40% over the support and a SELL STP at -0.25%
For beginners: give a look to courses (investopedia or tradingview) about triangle pattern: descending triangle pattern, ascending triangle pattern and symmetrical triangle pattern .
55% profit on the past 5 months trading NDX, here are my resultsYou can check it by yourself by looking at my previous ideas.
Each time I buy or sell I publish a related idea on my channel.
I usually trade with x3 leverage, unless other leverage is indicated in the corresponding idea.
During the same time the NDX went down 7.65%.
I outperformed the NDX of more than 60%...
My name is Nicolas Pradel.
I have started learning trading one year ago (45h/week during 3 months, then 15h+/week) through investopedia.
I started buying and selling stocks through TWKS in september 2021.
I am resident in ophthalmology in France.
I do not only trade and work, I am also fond of sports (mainly backcountry skiing and surfing waves), and I am committed to humanitarian medicine in Africa.
I have chosen to overspecialize in technical analysis of the Nasdaq100 (and S&P500) cause specialisation is the key to success.
And trading seems to me to be one of the keys to freedom. Freedom and independence are the mains reasons I am trading.
I won’t be as active in the next months than in the past months (I have others obligations due to my residency).
But I can promise you to be back, even more motivated.
I would want to create a team of smart and nice people, to share ideas and views about US stocks and trackers. If you are interested: contact me!
Enjoy!
The rotation from MegaCaps to SmallCaps is in FULL swing.Disclaimer: This chart shows how Non-Nasdaq100 Companies have fared vs Nasdaq100 Companies. I personally interpret this as the "SmallCap vs MegaCap Index".
The recent days have been incredible. We're witnessing the probably strongest rotation from MegaCaps to SmallCaps the market has ever seen. 🙌
As some of you might now from my previous ideas - we've been in a bear market for a year , starting on February 11 2021:
That bear market seems to be at an end now while the bear market for MegaCaps is just getting started 🐻.
Trial number 3 seems to be successful - other's have miserably failed, like this one in August:
While MegaCaps have tanked, normal stocks have rallied 🚀:
Disclaimer: The chart you can see above is the Nasdaq Composite Index ( IXIQ ) cleaned of Nasdaq100 companies (to the best of my knowledge).
It's definitely a good time to be out of ETF's and be in individual stocks that have reasonable valuations as compared to most US MegaCaps.
As always, let me know your thoughts. 🤯
Nasdaq 100 - Choppy price action continues Nasdaq 100 index grew approximately 10% since its low on 24th January 2022. At the moment, it experiences choppy price action. However, the situation looks less dire for NQ1! than a week or two weeks ago. The daily time frame continues to show bullish developments while the weekly time frame shows mixed conditions. We are turning increasingly bullish on NQ1! which still trades approximately 10% below its ATH value. We think the current valuation is attractive for entry of a long trade, especially with a long-term perspective.
Technical analysis - daily time frame
RSI is bullish. MACD points to the upside which is bullish, however, it still remains in the bearish area. Stochastic is bullish. DM+ and DM- show bearish conditions in the market. Further, ADX declines which signals weakening of the bearish trend. Overall, the daily time frame is bullish.
Illustration 1.01
Picture above shows the daily chart of RSI of NQ1!. It broke its bearish structure which is bullish.
Technical analysis - weekly time frame
RSI reversed and now it points to bullish direction. Stochastic oscillates in the bearish area, however, it also managed to reverse and now it points to the upside. MACD is bearish. DM+ and DM- are bearish as well. ADX is flat. Overall, the weekly time frame is mixed.
Support and resistance
Short-term resistance lies at 15 260 USD and short-term support at 14 362.75 USD. Resistance 1 appears at 16 009.25 USD while Support 1 sits at 13 706 USD. Major resistance level is at the all time high value which equals 16 767.50 USD.
Please feel free to express your own ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Your own due diligence is highly advised before entering trade.
NDQ rejects down from primary trendline for 4th timeNDQ rejects down from primary trendline for 4th time. the prior false breakout would have suggested a bigger move down than we have yet received, but it met support going back to last July. Today's close will determine if the emerging bullish engulfing candle will hold, or if we get a breakout close, or if we will bounce hard down. we are at the precipice of fate.
Uncertain timesFrom here everything is possible.
I sold friday evening the SQQQ I bought wednesday (+8.82% in two days...).
And you, where do you think the market is heading?
Hanging man: to short the Nasdaq or to be sent to the gallows.This is the strongest bearish pattern ever.
Happen one to twice a year.
Cause of it, the index felt hard on early post-market.
I advice to short the NDX with x3 leverage at the closing / in the post-market. But it's probably too late for you now, a lots of traders did it and the index felt hard... Btw it's good to know for the next time you will see this pattern...! Easy money.
The last 4 hanging-man spoke for themselves...
If you want to see what happen after a hanging man (10 previous years on NDX and SPY), glance at my excel sheet:
docs.google.com
I sold at the closing (15130), took the profit from yesterday purchase (there is no small money! :D), then short with x3 leverage.
2022_02_02 - Mr. $NDQ - NasdaqWe are getting to that specific, and delicate moment in time, where things can go from one extreme to the other. It would depend on the hand that moves the market.
No one may predict specific targets or how things are gonna go.
There are going to be external factors that would affect one way or another. History have shown us that.
Im a guy that believes in cycles, so for now .. remember we are near 100 year cycle crash .. there are some numbers that have been appearing in personal analysis .. once over again.. 29/30/31/34/ 45 / 49/50 .. i have not seen much in 40s for now.. it means events from 30s would lead the way and show the path.
But also remember you may stablish probabilities and possibilities.. If you draw all the possible variants ... then is easy to make a plan for each situation.
It is absurd to believe that curve is going to continue, but hey.. im not here to judge jaja..
Ill be using only larger periods of time. I would go from 1 Month to 12 Month .. and dive in less periods of time once we check bigger timeframes.
I'm not taking any positions at the moment so.. that's why i'm neutral at this point.. and i would probably wont say which way .. take your own choices .. besides.. i have learned that if you scream what you would do to the four winds, market is affected.. so better quite on just observer :P
There are signs at 1M that things are coming to lower areas in volume and RSI... hard way.. but price have not move that much really, and that only means moves are coming.. probably hidden divergences between price and RSI.
ill upload and update once in a while.. when i have some free time..
Since this is a long time frame analysis, ill be posting in the long term eternally jajaja lol .. hope to still be alive to see which way it goes ;)
This is a long term commitment lol :P
As usual.. this are personal ideas and not financial advice. Use at your own risk!
Cheers!
-CharterX
Tech's Multi-Decade Dominance Being TestedThis is a fascinating chart. Since 1985, the NASDAQ 100 Index has been consistently outperforming the S&P 500 except for 2 years following the bursting of the Dot.com Bubble.
Also of note is the well-defined downtrend line that has been tested several times in the past, and is currently being tested again. The ratio is currently near the same level that marked the top of the last tech bubble peak, and is facing pressure from tightening financial conditions.
Watch this chart closely for clues to selecting asset classes that will outperform going forward.
New bullish channel for N100 and SP5002 entries (one aggressive and/or one filtered), at the end of the two biggest previous crash...
I bought NDX at the closing price (15018), with a stop-loss at -3%, and I advice to put only 20 to 33% of the money to have a risk below 1% (the past weeks were all doom and gloom and we do not know for sure what could happen next...)
If you want to download an excel file for what happen to NASDAQ:NDX and AMEX:SPY after one aggressive entry + a second entry on the past 10 years+, download this file:
docs.google.com
If you like the idea, say it! :)
NASDAQRecounted NDQ and find it hard to imagine we fo not at least test the weekly ema 100, with the fact that yeilds are still heading to 2.1% USD is heading to $98-$99 & TA patterns show a failed bottom ST TL.. So probably we have a bearish Feb to start and bottom around 13,000
Sp500We could to have this correction.
The correction is necessary, pump from 2009@2021 almost 13 years..
Need correction -50% now and bullrun next.
IMPACT OF US 10 Y YIELDS ON MAJOR US INDEXESWe always here on the financial media of the inverse correlation between US 10 Year yields and the major stock indexes. Understanding this correlation may give you insight as to how to deal with a rising rate environment. In Tradeview, you can easily compare each index with the 10 Year Yield (US10Y) to view how they correlate. For simpicity I have done this only with NDQ which is the index that has the strongest degree of inverse correlation. It would be a good excercise to do this with SPX, DJI, IWM and FDM (Microcap). The results may suprise you in that there is no where near as much correlation in those other indexes and FDM seems to have the least correlation.
There are many inputs to price action. Interest rates are just one. So for maximum impact, I limited the period of time I looked back to mid-May 2021 when we were apparently saw light at the end of the COVID tunnel (for the first time). This is also a bit after many Americans received their third economic impact payments which is about the time interest rates started moving. This chart shows:
1. It takes a large changes in interest rates to significantly impact the NDQ index
2. There appears to be a delay of 3-4 weeks on these changes on the direction of the NDQ index. Perhaps you can use these pivots to predict future price action on the index?
3. The latest steep rise in rates has only recently impacted NDQ which is in the final stages of forming a head and shoulders top. If we continue to see bearish action this week, the neckline may be broken and even retested within the next 10 days.
Last year IWM dramatically underperformed the other US indexes which is unusual in a good year. Normally small caps lead such advances. The big suprise is that the micro-cap indes, FDM outperformed all other US indexes and seems to be pretty unaffected by these interest rate changes. Even after a massive rally in 2021, most of FDM's top holdings have a very low but positive PE and are still trading at or below fair value. At the time of publication of this idea, all major US indexes were down 1.7% (SPX) - 2.5% (Russell 2000). FDM is down 1.62%.
