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🟩 Margin Debt with brokers points upWhen we look at the first chart the Margin Debt with brokers (aka how much the brokers are deploying margin) - we see a positive relationship with the times when brokers are on margin (aka buying a lot) and the market going up. When we analyse the Rate of Change of this stat for the last 15months we can see that currently we are getting to a state of bearishness close to the 2008 and 2002 periods. This of course is a contrarian indicator and could point to a move higher. This is a long term assessment, but it is a good point to include in your analysis. However remember we NEVER have confirmed of the NET NEW HIGHS - hence this market has still not confirmed Bull Status, at best we have Bull-transition. So be very cautious of the market.
FRED:BOGZ1FL663067003QLong
by TintinTrading
🟨 Ned Davis: QQQ/QQEW Bearish StanceHello Traders, Today, we're taking a look at the 63-Day QQQ-QQEW ROC% Spread Indicator. This unique tool provides us with a perspective on the momentum difference between the Invesco QQQ ETF (QQQ) and the First Trust NASDAQ-100 Equal Weighted Index Fund (QQEW) over a 63-day trading period. Credit for this study goes to Ned Davis Research (NDR), who provide quality institutional research. With my recreation, we now can use it for TradingView. USE THE INDICATOR FOR FREE IN YOUR ANALYSIS HERE - Currently, the indicator reading stands at 970, which is above the threshold of 600. According to our backtested data from 2007 to present, this suggests a bearish stance for the next 63 days. Here's a quick breakdown of the backtested results: 👉When the indicator is under -600, the forward returns are 2.0% over 10 days, 3.1% over 21 days, and 9.4% over 63 days. 👉When the indicator is between -600 and 600, the forward returns are 0.6% over 10 days, 1.2% over 21 days, and 3.6% over 63 days. 👉When the indicator is above 600, the forward returns are -0.1% over 10 days, 0.8% over 21 days, and 0.2% over 63 days. 💡As you can see from the chart, the indicator sits at the bottom, and the Relative Strength of QQQ vs QQEW is at the top. The thresholds of 600 and -600 serve as clear turning points, providing valuable insights into potential market shifts. Given the current reading, our analysis suggests a cautious approach for the next 63 days. As always, it's important to use this tool as part of a comprehensive trading strategy and consider other market factors before making any investment decisions. Stay tuned for more updates and happy trading! (Note: This analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions.)
NASDAQ:QQQShort
by TintinTrading
1
🟨 Ned Davis - 3 Day Price Thrust The market triggered last week the Ned Davis 3 Day Price Thrust Trigger Indicator - indicator available in my profile. The Thrusts occur when the S&P 500 rises at least 1.5% for one day, at least 1.15% for a second day, and at least 1.5% on the third day. The record since 1970 is perfect one year later. However, the prior18 cases, ending in 1938, only show 11 out of 18 profitable one year later. We have backtested this for you and show you the result. Bare in mind that the FED is speaking this week, which always brings extra volatility.
SP:SPXLong
by TintinTrading
21