NASDAQ Long-term Rising Wedge top approaching.Nasdaq / US100 is getting close to the top of the Rising Wedge pattern that started in August 2022.
The Triangle pattern formed inside displays similar features with the one tha peaked on February 2nd 2023.
That formation eventually pulled back to the 1day MA50 and 0.5 Fibonacci level.
Sell and target 15850 (expected contact with the 1day MA50).
Previous chart:
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NASDAQ 100 CFD
Zoom (ZM) Looking to Breakout after Extended ConsolidationI really like this opportunity from ZM here. The stock is cheap on many metrics and the market is pricing in a bearish case. If ZM can post even minimal growth in 2024, the stock should rip.
We've had almost a year of consolidation in this $60-$74 range and we're attempting to break out. It's just a matter of time.
I'm targeting ~$97 to fill the gap made in August 2022. After such a long period of consolidation, a breakout should cause some short covering and bring in traders on a technical basis. If we break below the range, it would signal a failure and I would cut my losses
High probability trade
Target: $97 (+34%)
Stop Loss: $58 (-19%)
- Sultan of Chart
Can the MAGNIFICENT 7 outperform once more?We have seen the Magnificent 7 (Apple, Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Nvdia, Meta, Tesla) underperform on this rally since the October Low relative to the rest of the Nasdaq index (NDX). The former can be seen on the left chart while the latter on the right. This goes so far against the aggressive nature of the Magnificent 7 (M7), which have outperformed Nasdaq on all previous rallied by at least +50%.
In fact the M7's first major rally (2016 - 2018) rose by +150% while NDX's by +95%. The second major rally (2019 - 2021) registered +363% for MA7 and 'just' +185% for NDX. If there is any progression between them, we can argue that on M7 the rallies increase by a constant of (0.41) while on NDX by (0.51). Of course the sample isn't big enough for solid conclusions. But there is a Higher Lows trend-line on both that is driving this logarithmic growth. Especially for M7, it has been touched on all corrections.
As a result, a modest target estimate for both could be the 2.0 Fibonacci extension, which for M7 is 600.00, while for NDX 27500. Indeed those seem remarkable from the levels we stand currently but the projections can get even more inflated if we follow the 0.41 and 0.51 progressions respectively, which indicate that M7 could rise up to +511% (767) from the recent market bottom, while Nasdaq up to +279% (39700).
In any event, do you think the Magnificent 7 will start to outperform Nasdaq again after November - December's pause?
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NAS100 H4| Pullback support at 38.2% FiboNAS100 could fall towards a pullback support and potentially bounce off this level to rise towards our take-profit target.
Entry: 16,475.30
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level
Stop Loss: 16,184.30
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level
Take Profit: 16,891.90
Why we like it:
There is a swing-high resistance level
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OUTSIDE DAY for ALL major averagesWhat a turnaround for ALL the MAJOR averages!
As we've been saying over and over again.......
The END OF DAY IS WHAT MATTERS!!!
*Indices formed an OUTSIDE DAY*
Outside days can signify 2 things:
CONTINUATION
OR
REVERSAL (of the current trend)
Being that the day ended lower, LIGHT VOLUME though, we will take this as a WARNING!!!!!!!
RSI fell pretty hard, #stocks could just experience profit taking for a bit.
__________________________________________
TVC:VIX roaring & seems 2b stronger this time around.
TVC:DXY close to support and seems to be trying to base again.
2 Yr #yield showing positive divergence.
10Yr oversold - don't see anything out the norm in either one of these, yet at least.
$RSP & $RUT performing better at the moment, vs $SPXAMEX:RSP vs AMEX:SPY
Equal weight vs regular #SP500
We can see that equal weight has been performing better
Russell 2000
TVC:RUT is no longer stuck in a rut :)
It had a fake breakout in the daily charts in August but look at it now.
That weekly is looking Nicely!
We've stated a few times that we believed these 2 would be moving better than normal averages.
We also said TVC:DJI would keep leading, it has. Another new All time high.
Another call, NASDAQ:NDX should surpass, it's more aggressive.
NASDAQ Hit the ATH but has one more push to give.Nasdaq (US100) hit yesterday the 16772 All Time High (ATH) level, reaching in the process our 16680 short-term target as shown on our December 11 call (see chart below):
The dominant pattern on the 4H time-frame is a Channel Up and the price is trading on its middle. As long as the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) supports, any pull-back is a buy opportunity for at least one more push marginally above the 5.0 Fibonacci extension, as it happened on the November 14 pump. Our target is 17300.
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All time highs on NDX expected After holding a Optimal trade entry on the monthly chart - expect All time highs on NDX with higher target above in a few years. It will not be in 1 shot - but its something to keep in mind.
We will need to take it day by day, month by month, quarter to quarter and take seasonalities into account. Expect some type of pullback at some point- but will evaluate important levels to accumulate when possible to continue working toward the targets. Personally i day trade so will grab pieces of the pie day by day.
NASDAQ One opportunity to target 17300Nasdaq is trading inside a Channel Up.
The current Rising Wedge which is dring the price on the current bullish leg resembles that of October 27th - November 7th.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy on the current market price.
2. Sell below the MA50 (4h).
Targets:
1. 17300 (the 1.382 Fibonacci extension which was the target top of the mid November rise).
2. 15700 (Support 1).
Tips:
1. The MACD (4h) sequences among the two bullish legs are identical, confirming the bullish sentiment towards the 1.618 Fibonacci.
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NDX Broke Double Bullish Pattern, 16600 SoonDear Traders,
NDX broke the falling channel (long purple trendlines) and then repeated a breakout from the falling wedge (short purple trendlines).
I believe NDX can continue its rally because MACD turned bullish, and I can see a confirmed bullish cross on the RSI. The price is above EMAs, and the volume is high enough for the continuation. I believe the target could be around 16600.
NDX is also overbought. While I expect further upside, traders without an existing position from lower target prices could wait for a corrective retracement to enter.
Kind regards,
Ely
Nasdaq 100 - Sell (Double Top, H&S Pattern, 0.618 Fib Extension)- Double top formation forming on the Daily/Weekly chart
- Head & Shoulders Pattern potential to form (2nd top in double top is the head of H&S patter)
- Price has reached Fibo 0.618 extension, potential area for reversal
- Mean reversion back to the long term trend line (excluding the inflationary impact of money
printing)
- News celebrating all time high, contrarian approach to avoid masses excitement/hysteria.
US100 ~ Ho Ho Santa Rally or EOY Bah Humbug Bust? (4H)CAPITALCOM:US100 chart mapping/analysis.
Nasdaq 100 consolidating into key macro economic news, much like S&P 500.
Trading scenarios into EOY:
Bullish reaction to macro economic news = break above ~16167 trading range (yellow dashed) towards ascending trend-line (green) / red box confluence zone.
Bullish extension target(s) = new historical highs surpassing ~16770 November 2021 high.
Bearish reaction to macro economic news = break below ~15690 trading range (yellow dashed) + descending trend-line (light blue) towards 78.6% Fib / 200SMA dynamic support confluence zone.
Bearish extension target(s) = descending trend-line (white dotted) / ascending trend-line (green) / Golden Pocket confluence zone.
NASDAQ: Channel Up soon to test the ATH.Nasdaq is almost overbought again on the 1D technical outlook (RSI = 69.937, MACD = 245.100, ADX = 36.889) but that shouldn't affect it much as it is trading on the lower band of the November Channel Up. Leg 1 of the bullish sequence that made the Nov 15th HH extended to the 2.382 Fibonacci level. As the 1D RSI is identical to that Leg and shows that we are roughly halfway there, we remain bullish aiming again at the 2.382 Fib extension (TP = 16,840) which is marginally over the All Time High of 16,780.
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NASDAQ Targeting the ATH minimumNasdaq established its price action over the 4hour MA50 again.
A Channel Up is emerging, and could be a very aggressive one as the 4hour RSI is already overbought.
You can buy now and target at least the 16785 ATH.
If the price breaks over it and after re-testing it holds, re buy and target 17850 (+13.65% rise like the first leg of the Channel).
Previous chart:
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NASDAQ Last obstacle before a Christmas rally.Nasdaq (NDX) completed the short-term pull-back we called on our latest November 29 analysis (see chart below), hitting our 15750 target and then rebounding:
This rebound can seasonally be the start of the end-of-the-year rally, which the market calls 'Santa' or 'Christmas' rally. However, one last Resistance level remains before it is confirmed and that is the top (Lower Highs trend-line) of the (blue) Channel Up, which happens to also be synched with the Lower Highs trend-line of the 4H RSI.
If the index closes a 4H candle above it, we will buy and aim for a +6.34% rally (from the bottom), which has been the minimum bullish sequence since June, and target 16680 (Resistance 1), which is the December 28 2021 High, essentially the first Lower High of the 2022 Bear Cycle. A notch higher on that rally, the index can even test the 16770 All Time High.
On the other hand, if Nasdaq breaks below the bottom (Lower Lows trend-line) of the Channel Down first, most likely will have made contact with the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) by then, we will sell instead and target 14900 (-7.60% from the Lower High, which is the minimum short-term decline since June).
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US Economy Has Entered A Potential Parabolic Phase End
I think this is the most important macro trend to pay attention to in our economic history, I see many 1930 comparisons with 2023 saying we are at the "1931" collapse point but all economic data is pointing that we are most likely at the 1927-1928 stage and crazy enough when you compare the macro trends they make the same giant symmetrical wedge pattern.
Now I'm going to share some archives of The New York Times from the same period to see where the mentality is.
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November 17, 1927
"98 and interest, to yield about 5.75%"
"temporary bonds"
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October 30, 1928
"London Paper Predicts Crash on Change There It Speculation Goes On.
LONDON, Oct. 29.—Speculative activity on the London Stock Exchange which sent prices of certain shares of doubtful value bounding upward, led the Daily Express to issue a solemn warning that a crash was certain to come unless the stock-gambling mania ceased."
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November 3, 1929
"SEES WALL ST. REACTION.
Stock Decline Will Aid Real Estate, Says Mandelbaum."
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November 25, 1929
"ASKS STATE INQUIRY ON STOCK RECESSION
Senator Hastings Wants the Governor to Name Committee of Business Leaders. MENTIONS SHORT SELLING But Finds Law Passed to Prevent It Failed of its Purpose and Was Repealed in 1857. Sees Short Selling a Factor Doubt As to Remedy."
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Here we are again different stages, different cycles.
But the main difference is our system bailed out our crashes since 2001 starting with interest rate cuts, we can clearly see the ups and downs are more violent when the FRED intervenes in the market.
Do I suspect we get a giant crash in a few years? unlikely the FRED will not debase / change the rules but stopping a new parabolic run up is much harder to stop.
They printed too much currency in 2020 now that inflation is halted via the fastest rate cycle in history where is all this capital going to flow into? correct equities and crypto.
Best to remember the 1929 quote of the thought of "Banning Short Selling" my guess is IF this starts to turn into a parabolic secular cycle ending the FRED will start to control the markets and limit ability to sell / short sell or QE / YCC the market during the final stage.
We will know if this is repeating if the wedge breaks out from now to early 2024.
$SPX at IMPORTANT area! DJ:DJI is fighting to stay above, hang around resistance.
NASDAQ:NDX came back & fighting to chug higher as well.
VERY IMPORTANT AREA for $SPX!!!!!!!
Strength has subsided but it's not down yet.
Could AMEX:SPY retest the highs?
TVC:VIX is holding but doesn't look fully awake. Hmmm...
#stocks AMEX:DIA NASDAQ:QQQ AMEX:SPY
SPX and NDX may be getting into Golden Arches TerritoryDouble Top possibility here, expect it to be much more likely to occur if the US Dollar Index TVC:DXY moves back above the red box shown below:
This has been a long-time theory - if DXY moves above the 112-114 highs from a while back, we'll see double tops across many markets, crypto and stocks. Stocks may be the first to drop as they're already approaching their recent ATHs.
Should DXY move back down below 98-101, we may instead see new ATHs across markets and a sort of mega-boom before DXY eventually heads back up and leads to market crashes
NASDAQ: Healthy pullback serving as end of year rally vessel.Nasdaq is pulling back today after the 1D MACD formed a Bearish Cross and the 1D technical outlook turned neutral (RSI = 54.419, MACD = 183.360, ADX = 45.724). This has so far achieved at offsetting the previous overbought condition on the chart. Technically it can be a HH rejection on a newly emerging Channel Up. This can serve as a buy opportunity either on the S1 level or if it is extended on the S2 and the 1D MA50 for the end of year rally. Our target is the ATH (TP = 16,775).
See how our prior idea has worked:
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Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) ~ December 4H SwingNASDAQ:QQQ chart analysis/mapping.
QQQ ETF in consolidation phase after strong November rally.
Trading scenarios:
Further consolidation = descending trend-line (light blue) / multiple EMA confluence zone.
Continuation rally #1 = top range of Fib / ascending trend-line (green) confluence zone.
Shallow pullback #1 = 78.6% Fib / 200MA confluence zone.
Shallow pullback #2 = descending trend-line (white dotted)\
Deeper pullback #1 = gap fill / ascending trend-line (green) / Golden Pocket confluence zone.
Capitulation #1 = 50% Fib
Capitulation #2 = 38.2% Fib / gap fill / ascending trend-line (light blue) confluence zone.
Capitulation #3 = 23.6% Fib
📈 Nasdaq Future Insights 🚀The Nasdaq Future presents an intriguing chart. Following the completion of Wave 3 on July 19, 2023, we encountered a complex Wave 4 correction.
Since October 26, we've witnessed a parabolic surge, indicative of the initiation of Wave 1. Interestingly, there hasn't been a significant correction resembling a potential Wave 2. Therefore, I anticipate a downward movement to form Wave A, followed by a surge surpassing Wave 1 for Wave B. Subsequently, we might witness another dip before the completion of Wave C.
These corrective phases set the stage for the next upward trajectory toward new All-Time-Highs. Stay tuned for potential entry points during the corrective waves. 🕵️♂️🔥