Strong Cup & Handle pattern on the weekly $IXIC chartToday witnessed a robust bullish surge in the Nasdaq with a cup and handle pattern (Very similar on the S&P500 too).
Introduced in 1988 by analyst William O’Neill, the cup and handle pattern signifies a bullish continuation pattern activated by consolidation following a robust upward trend. While the pattern requires time to evolve, its recognition and subsequent trading become relatively straightforward once it materializes. As with all chart patterns, trading volume and supplementary indicators should be employed to validate a breakout and the sustained bullish trajectory.
To validate the pattern, adherence to several rules is imperative:
- The cup with handle pattern must follow a significant bullish movement (Checked: +130% in 87 weeks).
- The lowest trough of the cup must be below 50% of the preceding bullish movement (Checked: -37%).
- The lowest trough of the handle must be below 50% of the cup’s height (checked: -13%).
Key statistics on cup with handle patterns, courtesy of CentralCharts, include:
In 79% of cases, the exit from a cup with handle pattern is bullish.
In 73% of cases, the cup with handle pattern’s price objective is reached (half the cup’s height), after breaking the neck line.
In 74% of cases, after exit, the price makes a pullback in support on the neck line.
In summary, the cup and handle pattern signifies a bullish continuation pattern, initiated by consolidation after a robust upward trend. While its development requires time, once formed, recognition and trading are relatively straightforward. Employing trading volume and additional indicators is crucial for confirming a breakout and sustaining the original bullish price movement.
PS: I think that a perfect cup and handle pattern would be form on the breakout of the 14300 neckline
NASDAQ 100 CFD
The Emperor's New ClothesYou don't need to believe in fairytales to realize that there are kings, queens and peasants.
As if not a single day has passed since the Medieval times. Poor get poorer, and rich get richer.
As the folklore said, the emperor decided that he needs new clothes.
And so he demanded from the entire kingdom that he finds the finest.
Two swindlers arrive at the capital city of an emperor who spends lavishly on clothing at the expense of state matters. Posing as weavers, they offer to supply him with magnificent clothes that are invisible to those who are stupid or incompetent.
Source: Wikipedia
And here we are. Looking at the magnificent clothes of the naked emperor.
The emperor however is still an emperor, no matter what he wears.
And he gets to enjoy the fruit of his peasants' labor.
Post 2020 profits for the naked few.
Until today, we are too smart not to see the clothes of the emperor.
No sane person can possibly call themselves incompetent.
The ghost of the emperor lives on...
...until one child realizes, that there are no clothes in the first place.
We have reached the very last days of the emperor's dignity.
Trend change begins when only one changes direction. Others soon follow.
Volatility increases after a tiny "butterfly-event" causes one member to destabilize.
SPX Stability:
Then volatility swallows everyone.
Parasites have riddled the economy.
There is only a limited amount of time for parasites to feast.
The time will come, when there will be no food left.
It is at that time when the real "fun" begins...
Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground.
-Father Grigori
SPX And The CPI WeekThe S&P500 index SPX surged by +1.31% last week to close above 4400 resistance level. The index is showing that there's more potential is yet to come, to hit 4520 next.
The week ahead:
The meeting between US President Biden and China President Xi is the highlight; there is also US CPI and retail sales, the former being a key input into the Fed's policy deliberations; China activity data will also be released.
Sectors that may witness higher volatility are; Big techs, EVs, Oil & Gas and Semiconductors stocks.
META ~ Snapshot TA (Daily / Nov 2023)NASDAQ:META chart mapping/analysis.
Bullish consolidation higher within an ascending parallel channel (white).
Bull target(s)
Breakout above descending trend-line resistance (white dotted)
Overhead gap fill (~361.59)
Prev ATH + upper range of parallel channel (light blue) confluence resistance zone
Bear target(s)
Ascending trend-line support (green dotted)
Golden Fib Pocket
Lower range of ascending parallel channel (white)
50% Fib
Underlying gap fills (~214.11 / ~201.03 / ~183.78)
38.2% + gap fill (~201.03) confluence support zone
GOOGL ~ Snapshot TA (Daily / Nov 2023)NASDAQ:GOOGL chart mapping/analysis.
Multi-year consolidation/pennant pattern formation.
Bull target(s)
Overhead gap fill (~137.42)
Descending trend-line resistance (white dotted) - plus breakout? TBC
Previous ATH + upper range parallel channel (light blue) confluence resistance zone
Bear target(s)
23.6% Fib + gap fill (~126.49) confluence support zone
Ascending trend-line support (green dotted)
Underlying gap fill (~117.71)
38.2% Fib + gap fill (~112.94) confluence support zone
Ascending trend-line support (white dotted)
50% Fib
Golden Pocket Fib
AMZN ~ Snapshot TA (Daily / Nov 2023)NASDAQ:AMZN chart mapping/analysis.
Consolidation within ascending parallel channel (green).
Bull target(s)
Ascending trend-line resistance (white dotted)
Upper range of parallel channel (green) + 78.6% Fib confluence resistance zone
Overhead gap fill (~163.27)
Bear target(s)
61.8% Fib
Underlying gap fills (~133.57 / ~121.64)
50% Fib
lower range of ascending parallel channel (green)
38.2% Fib
Upper range of descending parallel channel (light blue)
AAPL ~ Snapshot TA (Daily / Nov 2023)NASDAQ:AAPL chart mapping/analysis.
Clear breakout of descending parallel channel (white).
Bull target(s)
Overhead gap fills
Previous ATH (~197.70)
Ascending trend-line resistance (green dotted)
Upper range of ascending parallel channel (light blue)
Bear target(s)
Descending parallel channel (white) aka "return to scene of crime"
23.6% Fib
Ascending trend-line (green dotted) + 38.2% Fib confluence support zone
Descending trend-line (white dotted)
Nasdaq100 Ahead Of Fed- The Nasdaq 100 index declined 2.60% last week, yet closed above the 14,000 major weekly support.
- Ahead of the Fed, quarterly bond sales plan and Apple's earnings; the mentioned support (represented in both: the 50-EMA and the downward channel's lower boundary) would play an important role in deciding the market's path on the short/medium-term.
- The technical indicators suggesting an upward rebound targeting: 14,520- 14,700 resistance levels.
NASDAQ Huge success, now targeting 16000!Nasdaq had a great run hitting our 15000 target after we called a buy on the exact bottom on Oct 26th (chart link in the end).
Now the price broke over the 4 month Channel Down, which on the greater scale turns out to be just a long Bull Flag, and is aiming at Resistance A and B.
In fact based on the fact that the current rally started when the 1day RSI bounced on the 33.30 Support and the 1day MACD formed a Bullish Cross on the exact same level as the January pattern, we expect the trend to follow a similar path with the 1day MA50 supporting from now on.
Buy again and target 16000 (Fibonacci 1.5 extension like the February 2nd top).
Previous chart:
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🧽 Mister Poper. Meet The Cleaner Of Your DreamsCopper price continued to provide negative trades affected by the frequent stability below the additional barrier at 3.7280, to manage to reach some negative stations by touching 3.6100.
Also, RSI stochastic continues to provide the negative momentum to allow us to suggest forming new negative waves to attack the additional support near 3.5000 followed by monitoring its behavior to manage to confirm the upcoming trend.
The expected trend: Bearish
Are we about to see a new era of expansion for the tech sector?This is the Nasdaq to Dow Jones ratio (NDX/DJI) on the 1W time-frame (with the RSI on the 1M), which offers very interesting conclusions as to where we are on the large scale of things, which can be particularly helpful now as the shorting bets have been increased to the most in 5 years.
The recent pull-back since the July Highs, have made market critics call for a stronger correction. for the NDX/DJI pair, this has just been a consolidation. Going back to 2000, the tech sector witnessed a 'biblical' Bear Cycle as the Dotcom Bubble popped. It wasn't until November 2021 that the NDX/DJI ratio reached this 0.47 All Time High (ATH) Resistance but again as we saw, the inflation crisis happened and had a 1 year Bear Cycle.
Now the ratio is almost back to the ATH Resistance and just formed a 1W Golden Cross, which is a very bullish pattern, the first since October 2007. What's really interesting is that this consolidation on a 1W Golden Cross is quite similar to the July 1991 pattern. That fractal was basically the expansion phase that led to the Dotcom Bubble burst. The 1M RSI sequences are similar between the two fractals.
This chart shows us that such expansions take place inside Channel Up patterns. The 1W Golden Cross and a potential break above the 0.47 Resistance, may be the signal telling us that the technology market is starting a new era of expansion and it won't be surprising even fundamentally. Among other technological advancements and inventions, we are in the era of A.I. and that can be the vehicle to grow the market to unprecedented highs just like the internet was in the 1990s fractal that led to the 2000 Dotcom bubble.
Do you think the time to invest in tech long-term is now?
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US100 ~ November TA Outlook V2 (4H Intraday)CAPITALCOM:US100 chart mapping/analysis V2.
Always good practice to revisit your chart(s) after couple days with a refreshed perspective, to determine whether your initial TA has complimented developing price action, or your drawings need to be updated/overhauled.
Revisit updates:
Re-adjusted ascending parallel channel (green line) + highlighted middle trend-line (white dashed) to emphasize potential resistance of breakout price action
Extended descending trend-line (light blue dotted) to connect pivot points from Nov 2021 Dec 2021 peaks
Remaining TA drawings have held up so far, TBC.
09112023 - #NDXNDX posted the first red day after 7 days. Given the extent and many of days of rally, a pause is expected; that is why I said to be cautiously bullish yesterday. And still, yesterday's buy level at 15230 worked almost perfectly as it hit and went up 100 points.
Price action is neutral IMO but overall momentum is slowing down. If we look at the daily chart and draw a trendline, we can see that NDX has broken out of the trendline resistance. Possibly time for a dip, retest of trendline before further down (or fake down)?
IMO, NDX can well chop for the next few days, wait for a major news trigger then make its own move. Price is now rather high; going long from here definitely requires much cautious. If not, yes, I do not deny we can well skip this instrument and wait for a bearish daily candle to reevaluate if it is time to go short.
But for now, to trade this instrument, price either, 1) range around the PZ, then rally, possibly during US session, or 2) dip during European session and re-test the lows, find support and start to go up or , 3) if it is to re-test the trendline, 15155 would be a low risk level to find buying opportunities IMO.
Weekly Update: Do Small Caps Still Lead the Broader Markets?We've all heard that the small capitalized publicly traded companies lead the larger cap companies, more so featured in the broader indices. A quick look back shows the Small Caps Topped in November 2021, whereas the Nasdaq and SP500 did not top till January 2022. Subsequently, the IWM bottomed in June of 2022, and it took the NDX and SPX till October of 2022 to form a bottom.
So it appears we do not have to go back too far to see this phenomenon is still valid. If this price action of leading the broader markets continues to persist, then the IWM is now poised to literally "Drop like Rock".
A quick observation shows the small caps are around their lows bouncing slightly for wave 2 in our primary c-wave down. You can read my prior posts on the SPX and NDX indices but it appears if you want to know if the recent bullish feeling rally in the DJIA, NDX and SP500 has sustainable legs...look no further than the IWM.
Best to all,
Chris
Global Economic Recession SPX CRASHSPX is finishing a 1-2-3-4-5 wave for new highs. Whales are ready to push the stock market to new highs. This will get the majority of traders very bullish while whales exit the stock market and flip the trade. One of the worst recessions in history is in the making. Pattern: Inverse H&S
07112023 - #NDXSimilar to SPX, NDX still printed a green candle yesterday as it moved in a small range; with a fake dip to the PZ but it bounced and closed near the highs. Price is still in consolidation for the next move.
Main level to watch will be 15130 which is, similar to SPX's a strong resistance turned support. Would still prefer to have a deeper dip for a long but 15132 could well provide a breakout for a move higher to re-test previous swing high. While a for further dip, 15026 will be a level which IMO will give a good long opportunity.
NASDAQ: Short term sell opportunity.Nasdaq hit our TP = 15,000 as since our last idea (chart at the bottom) we took full advantage of the whole LH leg of the Channel Down. With the 1D technical outlook now just slightly bullish (RSI = 56.567, MACD = -24.590, ADX = 32.703) despite the seven day rally, we are looking towards a short term pullback that will test the buying strength and investor commitment towards a long term rise.
Consequently we are going short here, on the RSI rejection on R1, targeting the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level (TP = 14,750).
See how well our prior idea has worked:
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NDQ, NDX, Nasdaq, Us100 setupIf price should trade above my Take profit 15209.56 - 15210.69 before 9:30am NY time on the 6th of Nov 2023, then I favor a market reversal to take profit below. But if market doesn't do that, I look for a direction which I believe the market should be going. Idea will be updated frequently.
This is a daily chart