NASDAQ Hit the MA50 (4h). Will it hold?Nasdaq is on a correction leg after being rejected on the Falling Resistance of the Falling Wedge pattern, a little under the 0.786 Fibonacci level as the September 1st Lower High did.
It hit today the MA50 (4h) and that can generate a short term rebound.
Below that, the correction of the Wedge will be extended lower.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy on the current market price.
2. Sell if the price closes a (1d) candle under the 0.382 Fibonacci level (as September 19th).
Targets:
1. 15200 (little over Fibonacci 0.618).
2. 14600 (over Support).
Tips:
1. The Falling Wedge keeps the medium term bearish. We need a crossing over Resistance (1) to restore the long term bullish trend of 2023.
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Notes:
Past trading plan:
NASDAQ 100 CFD
Why it might make sense to craft a tail hedge now! Say you’re bearish but find yourself confused by the market. You want to partake in the action if things go south, but not 100% certain, what could you do?
First, you could build some conviction by identifying potential reasons why you think the market could dip lower… Then, devise a ‘tail hedge’ to profit if things indeed go south.
Let’s break down these two steps this week.
In our past two articles, we've highlighted a couple of reasons why we lean bearish. You can find them here: S&P500 Vulnerabilities: from Money Supply to Sectoral Imbalanc & Why we’re watching the Bond/Equity Volatility . But as each week unfolds with more drama, let's revisit the market.
The first idea we want to bring up is the rates-equity dislocation.
On the equities front, we observe the following:
The conventional wisdom has long held that low rates are good for stocks. However, with stocks rising while the Fed hikes rates, has this relationship been disrupted? From 2020 to the end of 2021, we clearly observed this classic dynamic. However, from September 2022 onwards, as stocks continued their ascent despite the Fed's rate hikes, a distinct shift became evident. Could this Equity-Rate dislocation be a by-product of the AI hype? Consider Nvidia’s stock price, which seemingly pinpointed the Nasdaq's low point.
Question is… Is the AI hype a strong enough factor to permanently alter this relationship?
In terms of overarching themes, there are generally defined up and down trends. AI ETFs seem to provide a rough gauge of the sector's peaks and troughs. With the previous peak in 2021 happening in the ETFs right before Nvdia peaks, again now we see a similar trend with the ETFs seemingly having peaked while Nvida trades slightly higher still, and we wonder for how long more?
If this signals a pivot for Nvidia, then the Nasdaq, currently buoyed by AI hype, could falter.
Now, turning to rates: What could drive rates higher? A string of robust US economic data regarding jobs and inflation has emerged. Recent figures for CPI, PPI, and NFP all exceeded consensus estimates, suggesting a robust US economy. Such data might embolden the Federal Reserve to maintain its tightening cycle.
One way to interpret robust economic figures is through an economic surprise index, such as the Citi Economic Surprise Index. This metric quantifies the differences between actual economic outcomes and projections. A positive number indicates that the economy is outperforming expectations.
When you overlay the Citi economic surprise index against the 13-week change in 10-year yields, a clear correlation emerges. When the economy outperforms predictions, yields tend to move in tandem.
This increase in yield represents a significant deviation from its nearly 3-decade trend. Broadly speaking, the Nasdaq 100 Index hasn't experienced such a pronounced change in yield trends since its inception.
On Volatility, Erik Norland from CME highlights an intriguing observation: the relationship between the yield curve slope and VIX when viewed from a 2-year average perspective. He suggests that equity volatility and the yield curve follow cyclical patterns, typified by specific periods:
1) Pre-Recession & Recession -Flat yield curve and high volatility
2) Early Recovery – Steep Yield Curve & High Volatility
3) Mid Expansion – Steep Yield Curve and Low Volatility
4) Late Expansion – Flat Yield Curve and Low Volatility
Plotted, the cycle looks like this for the 1990s period;
As well as the 2000s;
Given our current position in the Equity Volatility-Yield Curve cycle, we might be bracing for higher volatility ahead as we're likely situated near the cycle's bottom left quadrant.
If the trifecta of rising yields, waning AI hype, and a nascent high-volatility regime comes to fruition, then investing in tail hedges might be a savvy move.
One potential structure for a tail hedge could be the 1X2 ratio put spread. This strategy could offer protection against adverse market movements, with the flexibility to structure it so that initial costs could be negligible or even result in a net credit. Additionally, the put ratio is typically a long vega strategy, which could be beneficial in a high-volatility environment.
The 1X2 ratio put spread can be set up by taking 2 positions,
1) A short position on the Nasdaq 100 Index Futures with a strike price below the current level
2) A long position on 2 Nasdaq 100 Index Futures with a strike price further below the short option strike
At the current index level for the Nasdaq 100 Futures March 2024 contract of 15,520, we could take a short position on the March 2024 put option with a strike price of 14,800 at 304.25 points credit and 2 long positions on the March 2024 put option with a strike price of 13,800 at 122.5 points debit. The setup cost of the put ratio is 304.25 – (2 * 122.5) = 59.25 points, resulting in a net credit. The maximum loss occurs when the underlying asset settles at 13,800 by option expiry, leading to a potential maximum loss calculated as follows:
Long put options both expire worthless: -122.5 * 2 = -245 points
Short put option: 13,800 – 14,800 = -1000 + 304.25 = -695.75 points
Maximum loss = 940.75 points
Considering the potential for loss and the associated risks, several profit scenarios emerge. If, as we discussed, the yield trend shifts and the AI hype subsides, the Nasdaq could potentially plummet. If the Nasdaq falls beyond the 13,104 level by option expiry, the strategy could be profitable. Conversely, if the Nasdaq remains range-bound at its current level or rises by expiry, we could also benefit from the initial credit received. Each 0.25 index point is equivalent to $5.
The charts above were generated using CME’s Real-Time data available on TradingView. Inspirante Trading Solutions is subscribed to both TradingView Premium and CME Real-time Market Data which allows us to identify trading set-ups in real-time and express our market opinions. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
Disclaimer:
The contents in this Idea are intended for information purpose only and do not constitute investment recommendation or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products or services. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios. A full version of the disclaimer is available in our profile description.
Reference:
www.yardeni.com
www.cmegroup.com
www.cmegroup.com
Long LILMNot sure what this company does but volatility is A+. Got distracted and didn't capitalize on this obvious price action like I should have....but had a decent long earlier this year. Small size long here, something stopped the downward momentum and worth a punt. Not advise, good luck.
IBB d2 accumulation buy/hold setup 40% gains🔸Hello guys, today let's review 2daily chart for IBB . Entering re-accumulation
stage now, expecting range bound trading during autumn time season.
Range defined by range highs set at 135 usd and range lows at 117 usd.
🔸Similar fractal observed in 2018/2019. Faded into range after heavy spike,
re-accumulation then 50% pump later during spring 2020.
🔸Recommended strategy bulls: wait for pullback to complete and reload low
near range lows close to 111/113 usd (premium prices). TP1 bulls +20% gains,
TP2 bulls +40% gains. buy/hold setup for patient traders. good luck!
🎁Please hit the like button and
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RISK DISCLAIMER:
Trading Futures , Forex, CFDs and Stocks involves a risk of loss.
Please consider carefully if such trading is appropriate for you.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Always limit your leverage and use tight stop loss.
NASDAQ Channel Down or Bullish Flag?Nasdaq (NDX) broke above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and has almost reached the top (Lower Highs trend-line) of the Channel Down pattern that started after the July 19 High. The 1D STOCH RSI Bearish Cross suggests that this is a sell opportunity on the short-term at least, towards 14900 (0.5 Fibonacci retracement level).
But what if this is not a Channel Down but a Bullish Flag pattern after a relentless 2023 price growth? In that case we will need to wait for confirmation in the form of a break-out above the last Lower High (and current Resistance level) at 15630. After that, we will buy the first pull-back below it and target the 16780 All Time High of November 2021, which interestingly enough is only a fraction below the 2.0 Fibonacci extension, a standard technical target in case of Bullish Flag break-outs.
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NASDAQ Short term Resistance sell but buy if 15520 breaks.Nasdaq / US100 is about to hit our second target (chart at the end) as it is approaching the Falling Resistance.
Our strategy was purely based on the identical patterns of July-August and September-October.
The index is close to a 4hour MA50-100 Bullish Cross, signalling the end of this uptrend.
We estimate a peak no more than 15350. If accompanied by a 4hour MACD Bearish Cross, sell and target 15050 on the short term (course of 4hour MA50).
If though the price crosses above Resistance A (15520), wait for a MA50 pull back and buy targeting 15930 (Resistance B).
Previous chart:
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SQQQ's Steep Drop From Yellow Sell ZoneIn my previous update I emphasized that this yellow sell zone is a very strong resistance level for SQQQ. There was a lot of uncertainty surrounding the Friday jobs data, but the data came in very strong and almost double expectations. This led to a bullish rally for TVC:NDQ and SP:SPX that led to steep bleeding for SQQQ. I predicted that SQQQ will drop below the green support level over the next few months, these are my updated price targets on the way down.
$SPX almost like clockwork to 2022TVC:NDQ has traded back above the NECKLINE (from Head & Shoulders Break down) - Amazing!!!
DJ:DJI has not traded above and neither has the $SPX.
In this chart we see the SP:SPX illustrating the resemblance to 2022.
We've been showing this chart for some time now.
It's amazing how similar they are trading.
AMEX:TYD is running today (leveraged bonds ETF) likely an anticipated demand for "safety" causing #yields to fall.
SGX:SQQ NASDAQ:TQQQ NASDAQ:SQQQ
AMEX:DIA AMEX:UDOW AMEX:SDOW
AMEX:SPY AMEX:SPXL AMEX:SPXS
NASDAQ: Will it reverse to Bull or downtrend will make a new LowNasdaq is on two conflicting patterns on the short and long term. The Bullish Megaphone that drove it out of the Bear Cycle after the late 2022 Triple Bottom is still holding and closed last week with an emphatic rebound but at the same time so is the short term Falling Wedge that started the correction on the July 19th High. This conflict and medium term balance is why the 1D technical outlook is neutral (RSI = 48.115, MACD = -63.170, ADX = 38.959).
The 1D RSI may have held August's Support and we could have a Triple Bottom since June, not much different than the late 2022, but it is the 1D MA100 that will make all the difference. A two 1D candle close over it, will amplify the probabilities for a break of the Falling Wedge and long term bullish reversal, in which case we will target the 1.382 Fibonacci extension (TP = 16,050). If we don't see such 1D MA100 closing pattern, we will stay bearish, gradually aiming for the 1D MA200 (TP = 14,350).
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Weekly Plan NQ Futures Week Of 10-910/09 Weekly Plan. NQ Futures December NQZ2023.
Weekly Pivot is 14,988 [13D balance HB zone
Targets
15,151 9/20 gap top + 10/6 spike top
15,361 9/18-9/22 weekly vpoc
15,514 prior 5D balance half back
Targets
14,816 250% extension of 5D balance break down
14,628 13D balance zone low
14,526 6/8 gap bottom
Now trading at 15,020 NQZ
Alerts:
You will receive alerts in this channel every time NQ hits (2M candle close):
Weekly opening 15,040.
Weekly pivot at 14,988.
Each weekly target.
Side notes:
Current 13 days balance zone is H15,436 / HB15,011 / L14,586
When trading off weekly levels, each level will act as support and resistance, “no trade zones” do not apply to weekly plan.
NQ Weekly Plan Video >>>> @everyone
WTI Crude Oil All Time Chart. Does History Repeat Itself..?!I'm writing this article, because of the striking resemblance with Today's oil and the one that has been a lot of times before..
I believe that history repeats itself, and there are lessons to be learned. And since this boom and bust cycle are not new, it might also provide some understanding on where we are heading.
I hope you enjoy.
The time of dinosaurs
In the 1850s the whale fisheries had failed to keep pace with the mounting need for illuminating oil, forcing the price of whale oil higher and making illumination costly for ordinary Americans. Only the affluent could afford to light their parlors every evening.
There were many other lighting options such as lard oil among others but no cheap illuminant that burned in a bright, clean, safe manner.
George Bissell, considered as the father of the American oil industry, had the intuition that oil that was plentiful in western Pennsylvania could be a first rate illuminant. The slimy liquid was so ubiquitous that it tainted well water and plagued local contractors drilling for salt.
In 1855, Professor Benjamin Silliman from Yale produced a report that vindicated Bissell's hunch that oil could be distilled to produce a fine illuminant (like kerosene), plus a host of other useful products. As a result, Bissel and his company, Seneca Oil Company (formerly the Pennsylvania Rock Oil Company) needed to dispatch someone to Pennsylvania to look for large pools of oil.
First oil drilled in America
That man was Colonel Edwin Drake, known as the first to successfully drill for oil. Drake arrived in Titusville, Oil Creek Valley. Oil was known to exist here, but there was no practical way to extract it. Its main use at that time had been as a medicine for both animals and humans. Natives used it for war paint and for soothing skin liniment. It took a couple years but Drake struck oil in 1859.
This was the beginning of a pandemonium. Bands of fortune seekers and speculators streamed into Titusville and other oil-related businesses quickly exploded on the scene.
I guess we can call this the Klondike of oil, as a beginning of Global Industrialization Era.
Mr. Rockefeller was known as the co-founder of the Standard Oil Company and was the world's richest person. Crude oil jumped multi X times in 1860s from approximately 50cents per barrel in early 1860s to over 3 dollars in late 1860s.
Additionally, I would like to note that crude oil fluctuated between $10 and 10¢ a barrel in 1860! Adjusted for inflation, Mr. Rockefeller fortune upon his death in 1937 stood at $336 billion according to Fortune (in 2008 U.S. dollars).
Similar how crypto enthusiasts built their wealth in 2010s, right? 😉
Pump and Dump
By the late 1860s, there was a slump in the oil industry, keeping it depressed for the next five years. Low kerosene prices, a boon to consumers, were catastrophic for refiners, who saw the profit margin between crude and refined oil prices shrink to a vanishing point.
Worse, the oil market wasn't correcting itself according to the self-regulating mechanism described by neoclassical economists. Producers and refiners didn't shut down operations in the expected numbers.
John D. Rockefeller said "So many wells were flowing that the price of oil kept falling, yet they went right on drilling." Rockefeller tirelessly mocked those "academic enthusiasts" and "sentimentalists" who expected business to conform to their tidy competitive models.
One Hundred Years of Resistance for $4
According to the standard model of competition, as oil prices fell below production costs, refiners and producers should have shutdown.
But the oil market didn't correct itself in this manner because refiners and producers carried heavy bank debt and other fixed costs and by operating at a loss they could still service some debt. Each refiner, pursuing his own self-interest, generated collective misery.
Does it sound like today's crypto news, right? 😉
The U.S. drilling activity didn't slow down after hot 1860s as much as expected and a lot of producers are still pumping oil to avoid defaulting on their loans..
There was World War I in 1914-18, and total number of military and civilian casualties was around 40 million - around 20 million deaths and 21 million wounded. 😓
There was World War II in 1939-45, and total number of military and civilian casualties estimated around 50 - 56 million.. 😓
Crude oil prices jumped again, and again. But still remained below $4 until 1970s, as there were no all time peaks in crude oil after super hot 1860s.
Money-printing Era Breaks the Rules
The gold standard was the basis for the international monetary system from the 1870s to the early 1920s, and from the late 1920s to 1932 as well as from 1944 until 1971 when the United States unilaterally terminated convertibility of the US dollar to gold, effectively ending the Bretton Woods system, that has been resulted with huge inflation all over the world within further decades..
Technical pictures at the main WTI crude oil chart illustrates, oil price are on the sustainable path since then, with huge bullish accelerations within local and global conflicts, like Arab-Israeli War in 1973, 9/11 attacks in 2001 and Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022.
Nowadays
Knee-jerk surge’ happens again, and again, so oil experts repeatedly predict market impact of new 2023 Israel-Hamas conflict.
Crude oil price sees a spike on early Monday trading Oct 9, 2023 so the overall impact of the attack on Israel by Palestinian militants Hamas has yet to consider...
In a conclusion.. Does history repeat itself..
Certainly "Yes". As lessons of history still remain unlearned.
RUT/NDX ratio tells you to keep investing in tech!Something a little different today.
Was looking a some stock ratios and decided to regress the standard Russell 2000 against the risky technology index, the Nasdaq.
This RUT/NDX ratio has been inside a Channel Down since the Dotcom Bubble send it sky high, collapsing the tech sector.
The Channel Down has never been broken since and made a new Low this month.
What does this tell you? Keep investing in tech!
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NASDAQ Wait for the right sell entry at the top of the Wedge.Nasdaq is rising after the price found Support at the bottom of the Falling Wedge.
It is approaching the MA200 (4h) but the technical Resistance is inside the 0.618 Fibonacci level and the Falling Resistance.
Trading Plan:
1. Sell at 15170 (Fibonacci 0.618).
Targets:
1. 14900 (pull back to the MA50 4h).
Tips:
1. Only a crossing over Resistance (1) can restore the bullish trend. Until then the index may even turn sideways inside a Rectangle for a while.
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Notes:
Past trading plan:
Nasdaq Trading IdeaBased on Simple Technical Analysis ( Trendline + Support & Resistance )
Risk Disclaimer:
Please be advised that I am not telling anyone how to spend or invest their money. Take all of my analysis as my own opinion, as entertainment, and at your own risk. I assume no responsibility or liability for any errors or omissions in the content of this page, and they are for educational purposes only. Any action you take on the information in these analysis is strictly at your own risk. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. Good luck :-)
NASDAQ Reality will soon hit those who bet against the market.Nasdaq (NDX) has been on a 3-month correction since its July High. No need to mention that this High almost touched its All Time High (ATH), almost recovering in less than 1 year the value lost in the Bear Cycle.
** 2010 Higher Lows and Megaphone **
The Higher Lows (dashed) trendline that has been in place since 2010 after the recovery from the 2008 - 2009 Housing Crisis started, held during the 2022 Inflation Bear Market and gave way to a Channel Up. We can claim that since mid-2018 the market entered into a Bullish Megaphone pattern and such Channel Up formations have been the common vessels to a Higher High.
** Uncertainty/ Doubt / Disbelief **
Similarly common have been minor (on a 1W scale) corrections such as the pull-back we are witnessing since July. During market uptrends, those are called 'Bull Flags'. Especially in the beginning of the recovery those are met with Uncertainty/ Doubt / Disbelief. For that reason the majority doesn't get in on the trend until it is well underway. Even the 1W RSI shows how consistent this Symmetrical Support Zone has been throughout all those Channels. Even the Higher Lows trend-line from May 2022 is still holding.
** First Bullish Cross since 2010 **
On top of all the above, Nasdaq is about to completed a 1W MA50 (blue trend-line)/ 1W MA100 (green trend-line) Bullish Cross, the first since February 2010 (which as mentioned is post Housing Crisis). The price will enter next week into green Ichimoku territory, which when formed indicates significant upside potential on a well establish bull trend.
We expect this to be the end of the 3-month correction and the resume of the uptrend. Based on the previous runs, NDX is aiming at 17800 towards the Christmas rally and 21500 in Q3 2024.
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What's a Tea! Fed Policy Expectations Plunge Gold to Key SupportGold declined marginally by 3% in September hitting its major support of 52 weeks SMA, in the face of higher long term Treasury yields TVC:TNX and a stronger Dollar index TVC:DXY .
Sentiment remained weak for most of the month as ETFs continued to lose AUM while COMEX managed money net long futures positions fell to a five month low previously in August 2023.
👉 Since July, long-dated yields have risen faster than short-dated yields, meaning the yield curve is exhibiting a "bear steepening", something often seen during a reflationary or early business cycle period.
👉 Following this thesis, lets compare 13-Weeks Treasury Bills Yield CBOE:IRX.P that jumped in 3 months from 5.150 to 5.330 only, and 10-Years Treasury Notes Yield TVC:US10Y with gains from 3.820 to 4.630 at the same time.
👉 While gold tends to underperform risk assets during these periods, it is not common to see bear steepening this late in the business cycle and recent moves in yields may be masking other factors at play, such as higher risk premiums
👉 Soft US economic data suggests also that a slowdown is still likely, which, alongside a potential change in the shape of the yield curve, could signal an environment where gold has historically performed well.
Yields take center stage
👉 August and September were challenging for gold. After dipping below US$1,900/oz, it staged a late recovery – around the Fed’s Jackson Hole annual symposium, than turned more down after Fed's September Meeting to finish September down approximately by 3 per cent.
👉 The US Treasury yield curve is arguably the most important financial indicator around, and its trajectory and shape are constantly under scrutiny. Most of the time (90%) it slopes upward as investors need to be compensated for lending their money for longer. But at these times, it inverts. As it has since July 2022, suggesting bond market participants are waiting Fed's monetary policy tightening continuation.
Lets Compare
Gold Spot in U.S. Dollars (RHS) vs. 6-Months Fed's Policy Expectations based on Jun'24 30-Days Federal Funds Futures CBOT:ZQM2024 (LHS)
Gold Spot in U.S. Dollars (RHS) vs. 12-Months Fed's Policy Expectations based on Dec'24 30-Days Federal Funds Futures CBOT:ZQZ2024 (LHS)
What’s next
👉 In summary, the move in the 10-year yield can likely be attributed to three main factors. A shift up in the ‘higher interest rates for longer’ narrative, supply and demand forces and a rise in the risk premium.
👉 The latter factor might start to provide support to gold prices, if it continues to increase from its key support of 52W SMA.
👉 If we simply look at bear steepening, gold tends to underperform – with low single digit average returns. Historically, the most likely successor to a bear steepening is a bull flattening (approx. a third of the time). This is characterized by a fall in the long end of the curve relative to the short end, effectively an unwinding of the rising premia we’ve witnessed.
👉 This partly took place at the latter end of September with gold likely benefitting from such yield declines. Also, soft data continue to suggest that a slowdown is still firmly on the cards. This could result in either a bull steepening or a rare "bear-". Both phases have on average been gold friendly, yielding an annualized return of 15% – the highest of all the phases.
Gold Market Breath
👉 What is Market Breath overall?
👉 Market Breath is a Percentage of Index Components Trading Above their N-Period Moving Average.
👉 Traders can use this index to see what percentage of index components are trading above their N-period moving average, for example, above the 200-day moving average.
👉 A rise above 50% in the indicator indicates increased market strength, while like the index of new highs and lows, traders and investors often look for extreme values to find extreme overbought and oversold conditions in the broader market.
👉 Gold Market Breath Indicator INDEX:YATH (number of S&P/TSX Global Gold Index TSX:TTGD above 200-Day SMA) is at 2.43, that is one of the lowest multi year readings .
In conclusion, there are some reasonable considerations for further Gold spot purchases following the thesis that 52W SMA is a strong support for Gold in 2023, and further Fed's Policy expectations for upcoming 2024 are fully in the hands already.
$DXY topping short term?Good Morning!
Trying to get an idea of where #stocks may go. IMO bias is up BUT we cannot be deterred by biases, can we?
TVC:DXY
4Hr is showing weakness.
Circles = moving avg bear crossovers.
We see the quick drops BUT they RECUPERATE hours later.
The 2nd chart shows DAILY vs 4Hr.
Makes it easy to see how decent the drops are.
TVC:DJI TVC:NDQ SP:SPX
NASDAQ Small glimmer of hope as 1D making a MACD Bullish Cross.Nasdaq (NDX) recently broke below the Higher Lows trend-line of 2023, the trend-line from the start of the year that has been supporting the strong recovery. This created the conditions for further decline, especially since the 4H MA50 keeps the price action below it, but so far Support 1 (14430) is holding.
The above levels are those we will use as break-outs. A candle close below Support 1 will be a sell signal, targeting the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) at 13900. Since however the 1D MACD is close to forming a Bullish Cross, the bullish momentum attract probabilities and if a candle closes above the 1D MA50, we will instead buy, targeting 15650 (Resistance).
The pattern since mid August is quite similar to the Arc formation of November - December 2022. After the 1D MA50 broke, it targeted the previous Resistance and even hit the 1.382 Fibonacci extension before the next pull-back.
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Bear rallies the most furious, could be in one!Bear rallies tend to be the MOST FURIOUS!!!
Be careful but take ADVANTAGE!!!
SP:SPX upcoming resistance @ 3 areas:
4280
Moving avg is a little above that (weakest resistance imo).
MAJOR = 4330 (it closes above this will post further levels).
Keep an eye as the RSI closes in on 50.
#stocks DJ:DJI TVC:NDQ TVC:RUT TVC:VIX TVC:DXY TVC:TNX #GOLD #SILVER
$DXY trading alongside $TNX & both divergent to Stocks Post #2TVC:DXY on left in all charts (only DJI shown here)
DJ:DJI & CBOE:SPX & TVC:TNX on right.
Short term we are badly due for some sort of relief rally, we nibbled in this area AMEX:UDOW AMEX:SPXL
Not sure how high this can go so we have been nibbling and will sell in tranches.
#stocks TVC:NDQ AMEX:DIA AMEX:SPY NASDAQ:QQQ
$DXY makes history (Update idea) Post #1Historically, the YELLOW support area NEVER holds when TVC:DXY is on its way back down.
HOWEVER, the US #Dollar is showing strength. (this is vs a basket of currencies that are also weak.) 1st time it bounced back this hard.
This looks like it wants to keep going, longer term. We'll see.
This is NOT good for #stocks (longer term).
TVC:TNX has been trading closely.