$DJI $NDX $SPX show warning signs UpdateGood Morning!
We turned neutral, from Bullish Sept 2022, late July - early August.
Since then #stocks have traded slowly lower.
For the moment all major indices trade ABOVE longer term moving avgs. This tends to be a good sign. However, they're all trading sub short term moving avgs.
Furthermore:
Indicators like RSI & Money Flow have eroded recently
They've also formed ominous patterns, as follows:
DJ:DJI formed Rising Wedge.
NASDAQ:NDX $ CBOE:SPX Head & Shoulders.
Most likely these patterns will resolve soon. Either confirm or break.
Have an awesome trading week!
NASDAQ 100 CFD
Nasdaq Long As I said 1 month ago NQ100 Will Go to 22000Trend Bullish
P above vwap yearly
Maket profile shiftig higher
POC shifting higher: Now the 15 most institutions and institutional traders, that control more than 75% of the makets( Market makers show their cards:Thier footprint is POC, a phenomenon they cannot hide, but shows exactly what they are thinking, where they buy or sell, and a forecast where they will go to)....
And it is cystal clear:They wanna higher prices....
FED is losing power, and enarly noone but noone does care what FED or Powell and his freinds are telling ya.
The truth is that that the so called infation(yes so called inflation as it was made by FED itself) is cooling down, DXY is depreciating, and retail traders are becoming smarter. The bear market of 2022 was a good teacher, and those among us started to learn, learn and understand the markets, some better than the most professional investors,traders and institutionals...
This lesson was hard but it was worth it:
The smart trader of today has clearly underszoad that no one ,but no one can stop the trend.
And he has also understoad it takes more than watching the news ,following blindly the FED or the so called ,, EXPERTS,,---Those who were made and nouuned as Experts by the media....that is gaining its profits out of the losses of the retail traders, some professionals and most amateurs.
The reality is:
The true fundamentals facts we are reading and watching every day are not true at all: 99% fake, false,manipulated.
What can we do? How can we know if the news we get are fake or real?
Well: My answer is we can´t! And if some news are real, they wont help us. Why? Because they are old. Done,Gone.
The news are made by humans, and the persons are making news they have intentions:Money,Power,....Many insiders, many intrigues...
Well this is trading. It seems to be a chaotic jungle:If we ignore the rules. This is trading.
What to do:
I found my own answer, that helps me to stay focused,awake and profitanle.I m not saying that I make all the time profits. But I use to say over the long run I have beat and will beat the markets,many times,again and again. Drawdowns are part of the game, and every trade we take, might it be on lower or bigger TF displays drawdowns,because the markets are volatile:Some more and some less.But they all are volatile.
It also depnds on your protfolio,if you trade 1 asset, or more assets, and the time horizons...
Statistically, and you can check it up day trading will end in losers, as there is a 50 50 chance to win or lose in day trading.
On longer TF and time horizons that statistics change thier edge into higher win chances...
Therefor I trade only big TF, and only the trend. The intradays ,i use to buy or sell in trend directions..Only.
Back to Nasdaq:
Inflation cools down
Oil down
DXY down
Higher Highs Higher Lows
Higher POC
Volatility of VIX down(Risk down)
RSI long term above 50
Stochastic bullish
The market makes higher highs, and Higher lows, but RSI makes Higher highs and lower Lows!This is a clear indication that the trend will continue and the new part of the trend will be mch more stronger than the previouse one.
Why 22000 and higher: The companies will and must make more profits than expeted to compensate thier past losses of the last 3 years, and evetuelly get prepared for future crashes...So they will increase the production, that increases more job demands, that leads to more hiring people, that will boost household incomes, that will boost more spending because ppl earn more income, that will rise the production cycle of the economy as the production rises, that will prevent RECESSION!
Yes ! Recession: FEDs propaganda is recession, that wont come! Why? Well then read the logical aruments above! And i gotta tell ya something: The aruments above are for real and they are real facts of the last 80 years wrld economy. China, Japan, Europe! Even during the worse crashes China and Japan have been the first countries tehy recovered fast. Japan is refusing to increase the interest rates, and Just see how the economy machine is rolling on...The americans have understoad that logics, and it seems that FED and its friends have not understoad it, or they are unable to understand it.
What is the Makrets answer? They BULL Nasdaq,Dow Jones, S&P and all other indices. That is they answer,and that makes FED much more powerless.
Power to Traders.
Good Trades and Good profits.
Dave
DOW JONES -Divergent Patterns: Comparing Dow Jones and Nasdaq...In my previous video, we examined the long-term perspective and established that we're in the early phases of a significant bull market since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). In this video, we delve deeper into the current market waves, highlighting the distinctive patterns between the Dow Jones and Nasdaq. Join me as we explore what to anticipate in the near future.
NASDAQ: This is the buy signal you're looking for.Nasdaq is on a neutral 1D technical timeframe (RSI = 54.797, MACD = 35.170, ADX = 44.268) as it remains below the LH trendline within the 4H MA50 and 4H MA200. Only yesterday did it make a HL at the bottom of the short term Channel Up. We don't know if that will be enough to sustain this bullish trend but the price managed to close over the 4H MA100 again (holding since August 29th).
However if the price closes above the LH trendline it will confirm the bullish trend much like it did on August 23rd. The 4H is on a Bullish Cross so we will be ready to buy this breakout. The target will be the top of the Channel Up at a +5.56% maximum extension (TP = 16,000).
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Nasdaq Trading IdeaBased on Simple Technical Analysis ( Trendline + Support & Resistance )
Risk Disclaimer:
Please be advised that I am not telling anyone how to spend or invest their money. Take all of my analysis as my own opinion, as entertainment, and at your own risk. I assume no responsibility or liability for any errors or omissions in the content of this page, and they are for educational purposes only. Any action you take on the information in these analysis is strictly at your own risk. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. Good luck :-)
NASDAQ One last Falling Resistance to break.Nasdaq / US100 continues to trade inside the Channel Up from the start of the year.
It has one last Resistance to cross and that is the Falling Resistance of the July 19th High.
As mentioned previously, this continues to be an identical price action to February / March.
You may take a confirmed sell, once the Falling Resistance breaks and target 16250 (Fibonacci 1.236).
Previous chart:
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Nasdaq Extremely UV (Not like 2002) Again Check The M2 Supply
I see people posting comparisons of the NDX 100 from 2000 comparing it to 2023.
Its nothing alike people are still short waiting for a "collapse" that will never come due to the fact the USM2 is debasing and offsetting the actual index.
I'm shocked not even the "experts" on Youtube or Twitter explain this to new people coming into the markets. Because they don't even understand this either.
The Nasdaq is not going to collapse its extremely undervalued right now.
NASDAQ 4H Buy signal within the Channel Up.Nasdaq (NDX) is breaking above the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) again following a Bullish Cross on the 4H MACD and it needs a 4H candle closing above it in order to confirm the continuation of this bullish move.
If confirmed, it will technically be the extension of the new bullish leg of the short-term Channel Up towards its top (Higher Highs trend-line). As you can see, both previous bullish legs have started right before a 4H MACD Bullish Cross and since the price already bottomed on the Higher Lows trend-line and the 4H MA100 (green trend-line), we have a strong mix for a buy signal, which is just waiting for the above mentioned confirmation. Our target is Resistance 1 at 15930, which will be a +5.30% rise from the bottom, similar to the previous two.
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Russel 2000 vs Nasdaq, important momentThis is essentially a momentum play where we're seeking a breakout in the Russell 2000 (RUT) compared to the Nasdaq, signifying relative overperformance and potentially paving the way for new highs on the S&P 500 (SPX).
It's important to note that a rejection at this juncture would indicate a bearish signal. However, from a pattern probability perspective, the outlook appears bullish. Even though we're currently at all-time high (ATH) levels, this aligns with historical trends from the year 2000, and the prevailing inflationary period suggests the possibility of reaching even higher highs in the future, unless we breakout on the yield curve inversion and have the bear steepener event (see my other charts) that could very well align with the resistance we have here and failing a monthly breakout we can experience a bull trap. Only a monthly close above is a strong buy signal.
$NDX $SPX $DJI forming ominous patternAs we mentioned yesterday, the TVC:NDQ is poised for a big move some time this month.
After posting that, noticed this pattern. Was busy so didn't write it up.
Was out all day celebrating daughter & nephew's bday🎉
Do you see it on the DJ:DJI & CBOE:SPX as well?
We bring up the Head & Shoulder Pattern every so often. It signifies tops.
HOWEVER, this pattern needs the confirmation of breaking the neckline (bottom line - support), especially with volume.
TVC:RUT stays in channel the entire time
#stocks NASDAQ:QQQ AMEX:DIA CBOE:SPX AMEX:IWM
08092023 - #NDXYesterday, I gave only 1 direction, to long NDX from support below. NDX was unfortunately weak these days and it broke to the next support, but that was at the same time that SPX hit the super strong 4429 support and it was good for a long. But would say it was much whipsaw then before the move higher. Very choppy move nonetheless. Do read what I wrote for SPX but looking for a move higher. DBZ would likely be first resistance offering a pullback; I do not have specific levels for NDX, but looking for SPX 4483 to trade. Overall, NDX is weak so looking to long SPX would be a better trade.
$NDX big move incomingOriginally posted something like this, roughly, 4hours ago
TVC:NDQ is closing in on the 2023 term trendline again.
Weekly this is shown more clearly.
Back to daily charts:
LOWER HIGHS
HIGHER LOWS
What pattern is this? Symmetrical Triangle!
What does that mean? #NDX has a big move coming this month.😱
#stocks
07092023 - #NDXI said to look for longs only for NDX; was looking for a move higher but instead price came down. 15289 given yesterday (at about where WBZ is, though was not looking for it to be traded TBH), gave a good long for a 100points up. What's next? Based on options, looking for possible ranging for the next 2 days, with possible trades to short 15487 for a move down or long 15241 for a move higher.
NASDAQ This 4hour Golden Cross is the buy signal you needNASDAQ / US100 finished forming a Golden Cross on the 4hour time frame yesterday, the first such pattern since March 22nd.
This is a standard technical bullish signal and as long as the 1day RSI stays over its MA, you can remain bullish.
Target 16250, which is the Fibonacci 1.236 extension.
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06092023 - #NDXNDX was much strong yesterday but as mentioned 15550 was the strong resistance and market is rejected by it. Given the strength of NDX, I am more inclined to only go long at 15344/15288 (15344 more likely to trade) as the two strong support levels, with 15749 as strong resistance and possible magnet.
NASDAQ: Aiming at 16300 after this short consolidation.Nasdaq is on the fifth day of consolidation in a row, with the support of the 1D MA50. The 1D timeframe is on bullish technicals (RSI = 57.978, MACD = 55.620, ADX = 42.134) as the Channel Up since the start of the year is still intact. In fact the recent Bullish Cross on the 1D MACD has print a similar pattern to the March 13th bottom on the HL trendline of the Channel Up.
Consequently, this consolidation is similar to the 10day one from March 17th to 28th, both over Fibonacci 0.618. We consider this a buy signal, and we aim a little lower than the 1.382 Fibonacci extension (TP = 16,300).
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Evening Update: What Worries Me in the Short Term?It’s not the Fed.
My perspective is Chairman Powell has been fairly clear in his updates to the markets. The markets simply don’t want to hear any of it.
It’s not bonds, or interest rates.
Those are trackable and I have posted on the 2yr and 10yr bond yields. Yields are creeping higher and have done so since the October lows.
It’s also not corporate earnings.
If NVDA couldn’t save the Nasdaq…then all hope is lost. Well…not all. Lol
Nope, it’s none of that.
It’s the potential for a government shutdown with an October 1st deadline. Is that going to be our catalyst? In truth, I don’t know. But according to CNBC, since the United States is in a Presidential election year, the stock market can’t go down. Have I mentioned CNBC is more detrimental to trading for profit than anything.
I have long contested that the US markets are in a multi-generation reversion to mean cycle. In EWT terms…a super-cycle wave IV. These excuses mentioned above, are all the old paradigms of a 100-year-old bull market which carved out our super-cycle advance in what I am forecasting as a super-cycle wave III top that occurred in January 2022. If my analysis is correct, (and it is by no means a slam dunk as to where we are right now in the indices)…the January 2022 highs will NOT be revisited for a long, long time.
In the short term, let's see if the US Congress proves Fitch's downgrade of US Debt was warranted.
Best to all,
Chris
05092023 - #NDXSimilar to SPX, near term price action is looking toppish with at least a possible pullback IMO. Price is at a support level now; looking for a possible up to the PZ which would provide a good level to look for shorts for a move lower with 15345/83 as near term target; 15345 would be good for a good bounce.
$NDX - Rising Trend Channel [MID-TERM]🔹Breakdown support of Rising Trend Channel in the medium long term.
🔹This indicates a slower rising rate at first, or the start of a more horizontal formation.
🔹Approaching resistance at 15800, which may give a NEGATIVE reaction.
🔹Once break upwards through 15800 will be a POSITIVE signal.
🔹Technically NEUTRAL for the medium long term.
Chart Pattern:
◦ DT: Double Top | BEARISH | 🔴
◦ DB: Double Bottom | BULLISH | 🟢
◦ HNS: Head & Shoulder | BEARISH | 🔴
◦ REC: Rectangle | 🔵
◦ iHNS: inverse head & Shoulder | BULLISH | 🟢
Verify it first and believe later.
WavePoint ❤️
$DJI - Rising Trend Channel [MID-TERM]🔹Achieved target price at 35137 after a breakout of the Rectangle Formation.
🔹Support at 34200 and Resistance at 35600.
🔹Technically POSITIVE for the medium long term.
Chart Pattern:
◦ DT: Double Top | BEARISH | 🔴
◦ DB: Double Bottom | BULLISH | 🟢
◦ HNS: Head & Shoulder | BEARISH | 🔴
◦ REC: Rectangle | 🔵
◦ iHNS: inverse head & Shoulder | BULLISH | 🟢
Verify it first and believe later.
WavePoint ❤️