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NASDAQ 100 CFD

NASDAQ All going according plan, ATH by the end of the year.Today we make an update on our 1W time-frame Nasdaq (NDX) outlook on the analysis we published 2 weeks ago: So far the price action is materializing our projection, as the index priced a bottom near the 1D MA100 (red trend-line) two weeks ago and is rebounding aggressively, in similar fashion as the September 2020 fractal. Similar 1W MACD Bearish Cross and more importantly similar 1W RSI rebound within same Rectangle levels. If the pattern continues to be repeated, then a marginal breach of the 0.786 Fibonacci could deliver a new sharp pull-back to the 0.236 Fib. Weekly candle closings above it should keep investors interest intact and resume the uptrend, eventually to the 1.786 Fib extension and the 16770 All Time High. We are expecting this to take place towards the end of the year. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CAPITALCOM:US100Long
by TradingShot
6
NASDAQ Forming Head and Shoulders ReversalNASDAQ Daily *Note: This is an update to our previous analysis that will be linked below Price Chart The NDX is currently trading within an upward channel (Yellow Solids), and has recently tested the bottom trend line a fourth time; the more price retests it the weaker it becomes. This has also formed what could be the neckline (Teal / Red Solid) to a head and shoulders setup and has pushed the price past the mid-point (Teal Dotted) of the double top; which would also be the head. EMA's on the other hand have failed to cross lower with the 12-day and 26-day recrossing higher. Also notable is the spike in selling pressure on July 21; which is the same area the NDX is currently trading. Relative Strength Indicator There is a divergence (Teal Solid) from the price which lead to the trend line (Yellow Solid) breaking and the RSI dipping below the 50 level. The RSI has since recovered, however it's re approaching the trend line for a retest. On Balance Volume Similarly to the RSI, the OBV has also shown a divergence from the price and moved lower past the mid-point (Teal Dotted) in the double top. After a bounce at the support (Red Solid) the indicator is moving higher to retest the mid-point. TLDR; The market is showing strength, but a head and shoulders pattern is possibly forming as outlined above. RSI and OBV are both signaling higher, however, the indicators are nearing a trend line retest and level of resistance respectively. If price action moves past the head then we have an invalidation, but look for lower buying volume in the beginning of September to signal the formation of the shoulder. What Seems Legit? Um, not our portfolio if Mr. Market keeps running away from our targets; the market has been on a tear since the reversal in Dec / Jan. I mean, how many times have you heard those Bloomberg boys on the radio be like "omg markut go zhoom moar! wuuuuut?!", then the analyst comes on and is like "OH YEA NO U GOTTA DEPLOY CASH HERE I MEAN U CANT SIT ON THE SIDELINES LIKE WE CALLED THE BOTTOM AND NAO U GOTTA BAI". Layin' it on a little thick, text book transfer of wealth. Let's see if we get that head and shoulders. Follow us on Twitter for memes, market moves, and not so headline news. Chart Key Yellow Solid = Major Trend Line / Channel Red Solid = Support / Resistance Teal / Red Solid = H&S Neck Line Aqua Solid = Divergences Teal Dotted = Midpoint Resistance White Dotted = Invalidation of H&S Green Boxes = Supports / Target Areas
NASDAQ:NDXShort
by Seems_Legit_Research
NASDAQ Rebounding exactly at the bottom of the 8month Channel UpNasdaq (NDX) made a Higher Low last Friday exactly at the bottom of the Channel Up pattern that started at the beginning of the year, and broke (as well as closed) yesterday above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). The strongest buy confirmation has just emerged today as the 1D MACD forms a Bullish Cross, the first such pattern at such low level since January 08 2023. As long as the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) stays intact (has been unbroken since January 20), we are targeting 16295 (the 1.236 Fibonacci extension as with the March 31 High). In the unlikely event that a 1D candle closes below the 1D MA100, we will sell and target the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) at 13600, where the index will turn into a huge long-term buy opportunity again. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CAPITALCOM:US100Long
by TradingShot
2
NASDAQ/QQQ Took Support at Predicted Support AreaNASDAQ 100 ( CME_MINI:NQ1! ) took Support at the area suggested in my previous Idea Post (see attached). For further confirmation we will wait to see if it holds above the 50 day EMA on Daily Time Frame. It is currently above the 50 day EMA in the Pre-market session on Tuesday. If the Confirmation is achieved today, then we will look for another rally up to the Resistance Area from where the pullback started. Possible catalyst for this rally could be NASDAQ:NVDA 's earning Tomorrow AH, or J. Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Conference on the 25th. It is important to note that the market is still top heavy and favorable Macro environment is necessary for an uptrend.
CME_MINI:NQ1!Long
by Trading-Economist
1
NASDAQ Heading Lower For Longer (1D)NASDAQ Daily Price Chart We have quite a bit going on here so, pitter patter lets get at 'er. First, we have our second fake out (Highlighted) on the major trend line (Yellow Solid) which is accompanied by less buying volume than the first. EMA's have not crossed yet however we have a solid close below the 50-day and a legit cross of the 12-day and 26-day indicating a change in direction. We're getting the bounce we thought we might (Teal Dotted), which was outlined in the Weekly analysis that will be linked below, and should max out at the top teal dotted line if it pushes past the EMAs; This will be dependent on Nvidia earnings since it's so heavily weighted on the Index. After it begins to come down the first target of support (Green Box) aligns with the 200-day EMA, so that's definitely in play and will most likely see a decent bounce from there. Relative Strength Indicator Most notable here is the bearish divergence (Aqua Solid) that played out in the previous months and lead to a break in the major trend line. This lead to a small retest and the beginning of a bounce on the line of support (Teal Dotted). From here we likely see a retest of the 50 level to accompany the bounce and a rejection to downside to confirm our analysis. On Balance Volume Similarly to the RSI there was also bearish divergence that played out from previous months that lead to change in the direction of the OBV. The major level of support, or midpoint of the double top, was broken and confirmed the change in direction; This lead to the major trend line on this indicator also snapping. Most recently we've seen the beginning of a bounce on a line of support, which will most likely lead to a retest of the major trend line before resuming it's downward movement. Our target here aligns with another major trend line (Faded Yellow Solid) and the target support (Green Box). TLDR; Bro u pittur pattured moar thn u gat @ hur. Yea, well, we're in the business of pittering and the pattering is good. Price action is showing weakness and we're beginning get a small bounce at the second fake out break out of the major trend line; NVDA earnings will determine the height of it. The 12-day / 26-day EMA's actually crossed this time and there's been a solid close below the 50-day. RSI and OBV both show bearish divergences that have played out and confirmed the change in direction; both indicators are also showing a bounce at outlined supports before downward momentum resumes. Current targets are the green boxes. What Seems Legit? We bounce from excitement into Nvidia earnings; This seems to big one of the largest earnings calls in awhile, so you know big brain bets have already been placed, no one is showing up fashionably late for this. Earnings come out and the market either goes nuts, or has lackluster performance (our guess) into Friday where our overlords seal the deal for lower price movement. Chart Key Yellow Solid = Major Trend Line Red Solid = Major Support Aqua Solid = Divergences Teal Dotted = Support / Bounce Area Red Box = Major Resistance Green Boxes = Supports / Target Areas
NASDAQ:NDXShort
by Seems_Legit_Research
NASDAQ Long 2 Possible Scenarios of the next 21 DaysWell a chart says more than 1000 words Overall trend is bullish, but current predicted crrections(See my previouse Nasdaq trading ideas!) and Gap filling has been ocured successfully. Scenario 1: We keep arriving the bottom of the bear area future zone(red marked Time zone) Powell speaking in Jacksonville, but fundamentals are yellow green. If we break 14488, then it means the market will fill the last possible gap, below 13885, an we certanily will go to around 13200 area(Local area) So watch closely the support reaction. At this area I expect very hard and bloody fight between the bears and the bulls, as the bullish trend has been started at 11890, and 12885-13200 is the first bullish acumulation zone.So the bulls will efend this area, with everything what it takes to survive. Volume is up, and e have a big ,,K,, sshifting of the MP in this area. That means we have doubled POC(bullish). In senrio 2 we will see a big drop off the market below the last gap, but very quikly and fast agrressively attak of the bulls, that will reat a big V pattern:this is a good area to buy, uz the risk reward managemnet will be high enough to survive or protet the position. After that we retrurn the green bullish zone whih I have alulated, an then re again:The red area is a natural defene of the bears, so we will expet that the bears will try to push down the market. It is logial. Any kind of speulation will be just ruining your strategy. And the we will fight higher. This is normal range as we will enter September! And this month is just jerk. So a sideway movement and lower volatility is expted, if higher volatility omes in, then I ill ertainly be long, to add my positions, whih I have built at 10490 already. For daytraders and salpers:Trade in trend diretion as the probabilitiy of winners will be higher. Good luck Traders!
CAPITALCOM:US100Long
by DaveBrascoFX
$DJI & $NDX very important levels (TSLA trade = fire)The TVC:DJI trade we did ( NASDAQ:TSLA was great) was nice. In & out. AMEX:UDOW gave back all gains TVC:NDQ holding better, NASDAQ:TQQQ bit higher (risk reward was good but not for holding longer term) Point is, NOT RISKING, not convinced downside's over. AMEX:DIA almost oversold & very close to a VERY IMPORTANT AREA. Will revisit risk soon, once there. This is also an important area for $QQQ. ATM both weaker, could be mid day reversal. We'll see.
DJ:DJI
by ROYAL_OAK_INC
NASDAQ Moving Lower (1W)NASDAQ Weekly Price Chart After forming a double bottom in late 2022 the NASDAQ bounced and has melted up from its lows approximately 48% confirming that it was more than just a bear market rally. Most recently the NASDAQ has run into resistance (Light Red Box) and has descended roughly 3% past a minor trend line on the daily chart (not shown). Shorter term EMA's are beginning to even out (12-day / 26-day) indicting the beginning of a change in the direction of price action which will most likely move lower towards the target supports (Light Green Boxes). If the bottom support (Red Solid) is broken (pretty big "if" at the moment) then the possibility of breaking the long-term trend line (Yellow Solid) will come into play, however at this point it is premature to assume this comes to fruition. Relative Strength Indicator The major trend line (Yellow Solid) highlights the divergence from price action beginning in May 2022 and confirming the double bottom ending in December 2022. Most recently the RSI has remained elevated above the 70 line indicating a strong trend, however, the RSI has fallen back below the 70 signaling weakness. The RSI most likely moves down toward the major trend line and major support (Red Solid) from this point. Considering a cradle is in play with the resistance and trend line crossing, it will more than likely bounce with price action allowing the price to attempt one more move higher but will ultimately fail along with RSI failing to make a higher high and confirming price action. If the support and trend are broken it is most likely game over. On Balance Volume OBV bounced along with price and RSI in December 2022 and continued higher while making two consecutive bull flags confirming the movement. The OBV has failed to move higher after encountering resistance (Aquamarine Dotted) while retesting the major trend line (Yellow Solid) and seemingly has begun to move lower (emphasis on begun to). It is also notable to mention that a minor trend line (Yellow Dotted) has created a cradle that the OBV has so far failed to break. If the major resistance (Red Solid) is broken then it is basically game over, but we have two areas of support (Light Green Boxes) that will need to be broken first. The major resistance has had previous breaks which led to major downturns that can be seen in December 2000, February 2005, and September 2008 (all shown above). TDLR; Just want the meat and potatoes huh? Don't worry our entrees always Seem Legit. Price action recently hit resistance and has begun to move lower while EMA's begin to flatten. There's a 3% move down from a minor trend line on the 1D (not shown). The RSI is showing a bearish divergence after remaining elevated over the 70 line and beginning to move lower. The OBV looks to be forming a double top, and has run into resistance from a major and a minor trend line. Don't forget that this could take months to play out since this is the weekly chart. What Seems Legit? Possibly a bounce here from the support formed Jan - Mar 2022 in conjunction with the 12-day or 26-day EMA, retest the recent high, fail to break it and begin to move lower. It might just push lower due to the RSI on the 1D moving below the 50 line (analysis of the 1D has been posted). "History doesnt repeat itself but often it rhymes" - - Tap the 50-day EMA and carry on (2019) - Crash to the major trend line and carry on (2020) - Break the major support on the OBV and head lower (2000, 2005, 2008) Chart Key Yellow Solid = Major Trend Line Red Solid = Major Support Aquamarine Solid = Divergences Red Box = Major Resistance Green Boxes = Supports / Target Areas
NASDAQ:NDXShort
by Seems_Legit_Research
1
IWM - Rising Trend Channel [MID-TERM]🔹Rising trend breaking downwards in medium long term. 🔹Between support 170 and resistance 199 in Rectangle Formation. 🔹Broken through support at 188, indicating a falling direction and predicting further decline. 🔹RSI curve indicates a potential early indication of a falling trend in the price. 🔹Technically NEGATIVE for the medium long term. Chart Pattern: 🔹DT - Double Top | BEARISH | 🔴 🔹DB - Double Bottom | BULLISH | 🟢 🔹HNS - Head & Shoulder | BEARISH | 🔴 🔹REC - Rectangle | 🔵 🔹iHNS - inverse head & Shoulder | BULLISH | 🟢 Verify it first and believe later. WavePoint ❤️
AMEX:IWM
by wavepoint99
Nasdaq bear market?After hitting all of our take profits we are looking for the next trade set up. We broke the daily support that dates back to March and there isn't any current major support that we are close to. This along with the bearish divergence and rejection around the .886 retracement inclines me to think that we have now began a major leg down that could bring us back to 12-13 k. However, for that to happen we need continuation patterns and much more data. I think the price will float around here and we'll be able to assess the market better in the next days/week, so that we can action another trade. Long or short.
EIGHTCAP:NDQ100
by SynergyTradingSetups
NAS100 H4 | Rise towards pullback resistance?NAS100 could rise towards a pullback resistance and potentially reverse from here to drop lower towards our take profit target. Entry: 14830.80 Why we like it: There is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level Stop Loss: 14981.15 Why we like it: There is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level Take Profit: 14646.63 Why we like it: There is an overlap support that aligns close to the recent swing-low Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
VANTAGE:NAS100Short
by VantageMarkets
TSLA Approaches Major Resistance and May Stall into July 21Primary Chart: TSLA on Weekly Time Frame with a Downtrend Line from the All-Time High and Fibonacci and Measured-Move Levels Preliminary Comments TSLA is poised to stall soon, perhaps into July 21. By definition, a stall does not necessitate a crash or major trend reversal (at the primary degree of trend). A major reversal downward (crash) is always possible especially once shorts have been decimated—major downward reversals seem to always wait for clearing out of hedging and shorts, right? Although a major trend reversal could occur here given major resistance levels just overhead on higher time frames, no one has a crystal ball. Finding the time and price components of such a major reversal can be exceedingly difficult (note the conclusion section of this article about probabilities). And no one who were to have a crystal ball that worked properly would share it. And a securities regulator would be sniffing around for insider trading for sure with too many trades lining up too perfectly especially before major news catalysts. Humor aside, trying to be too clever by calling the exact top is a misplaced endeavor. But it can be prudent to analyze the charts and consider the idea of vulnerability for a trend’s continuation in the short-to-intermediate term, i.e., whether the move might encounter major resistance that could at a minimum cause a mean reversion or retracement of the recent rally . Trend Analysis The charts don’t lie. TSLA’s intermediate-term trend since January 6, 2023 remains upward. Similarly, short-term (2-6 weeks) and intraday trends remain upward. But the primary trend is still arguably sideways when considered over a 2-3 year period, while the secular trend since 2010 arguably still remains firmly upward. 1. Secular trend (since 2010): uptrend 2. Primary trend (since 2020/2021): sideways trend (range) 3. Intermediate / secondary trend (since early 2023): uptrend 4. short-term trend: uptrend near crucial resistance 5. intraday trends: uptrend near crucial resistance Supplementary Chart A: Primary Trend Supplementary Chart B: Secular Trend The intermediate term trend has run fast and furious for 1H 2023 (since the Jan. 6, 2023 low). That alone is not enough to expect a reversal. Shorting something merely because it seems to have risen too far is a well-known trading mistake comparable to catching a falling knife in a downtrend. Shorting powerful uptrends is not an easy way to make a living. But several charts suggest vulnerability for TSLA’s rally at this level. This comes right as earning will be reported this week along with a major monthly options expiration on July 21. Earnings reports like TSLA's upcoming one present a binary risk event that could stretch prices significantly in either direction, or it could a whipsaw price in both directions before settling on a final directional move (see the section below titled “Trend vs. Fundamentals.”) Supplementary Chart C shows that TSLA’s price is nearing a crucial Fibonacci level on a linear chart. This is the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement ($299.05) of its entire decline from its all-time high into the early January 2023 low. Coincidentally, this level shows confluence with other important resistance levels shown on the chart such as the down trendline from the all-time high. (Some prefer Fibonacci levels adjusted for a logarithmic chart, which is not shown. The next relevant upside Fibonacci level on a log chart, however, is the .786 of the entire decline at $306, which is not far from the .618 level at 295.05. Supplementary Chart C If the .618 Fibonacci retracement is overcome and held (not just a false breakout), this suggests prices may run higher to at least $314.67 or the next higher Fibonacci level at $347. But these are upside levels conditioned solely on the .618 retracement being overcome and held. Next, consider the down trendline from TSLA's all-time high. This is being approached at around $300, right were significant call OI exists. Trendlines can be somewhat rigid measures of trend, but they can provide some value especially when other support / resistance levels coincide with the trendline. The down trendline from TSLA's all-time high runs right into the measured-move zone, shown by the blue circle on Supplementary Chart D.1. Supplementary Chart D.1 Some traders prefer to look only at logarithmic charts, though here it doesn't add much to the technical picture since the trendline is quite close to where it lies on the linear chart. Supplementary Chart D.2 Finally, some bearish divergences in momentum and price/volume indicators suggest that price has become quite stretched right at a time when TSLA has reached some major resistance levels. Supplementary Chart E shows the Elder Force Index (EFI), a useful indicator that displays a combination of volume and price, weighing the extent of each price change along with the extent of volume. It tends to pick up divergences in the "force" or commitment behind a move with more sensitivity than RSI or other common momentum indicators, but with increased sensitivity often comes more noise (more false signals) which can be helped to some extent through indicator adjustment. Nevertheless, here is what that indicator shows for TSLA on the daily timeframe: Supplementary Chart E As TSLA has made higher highs, it has done so with less force and commitment for each high, creating a divergence between higher price highs and lower EFI highs. TSLA may make a new YTD high this week, and if so, it will be important to see where the EFI high prints for that new high. Given how low EFI is currently, it would take a lot of volume and price change to move the high to exceed the prior EFIs (erasing the divergence). In SquishTrade's view, EFI is unlikely to erase both the June EFI high and the January EFI high even if TSLA runs to $300-$320 post earnings. Supplementary Chart F shows RSI and ROC, two common momentum indicators which most readers understand well. ROC shows a series of three highs that each make a successively lower high while price made higher highs at the same time: January 2023, June 2023, and July 2023. RSI only shows a series of two highs where price made a higher high and RSI made a lower high. Supplementary Chart F Downside Targets TSLA's price seems poised to pullback / retrace at a minimum. But referring to downside targets may seem a bit premature as price hasn't confirmed even a short-term reversal or the start of a retracement / consolidation within the intermediate trend yet. The technical conditions for a retracement are present, so if confirmation lower does occur in the next week or so, price can fall to trend support, however one decides to measure that within one's trading system. Based on persistently and deeply inverted yield curves, many astute market players may be looking for more than just a retracement or consolidation within the intermediate uptrend. They want more than mean reversion, and that is understandable. Should TSLA followers expect that now? Today, July 15, 2023, confidence cannot exist about an impending trend reversal on higher time frames. Why? A major reversal where price retests / breaks January 2023 lows will likely coincide with recessionary economic data (e.g., rising UE rates), drastically changing EPS estimates based on disappointing earnings reports, and/or unexpectedly high interest rates across the curve because of sticky inflation won't budge further downward (the recent CPI print came in at 3% for headline but 4.8% for core for June 2023). Note: Fundamentals are discussed in greater depth in the next section below. But economic data has continued to come in better than expected. Recent real GDP print for Q1 2023 was recently raised to 2% and labor markets remain persistently tight as the Fed even has noted in its recent pressers. Inflation has cooled for June but this may result from basing effects. Most importantly, trend structure on the weekly and daily time frames (intermediate and short-term) has not been broken. Until the intermediate trend structure is decisively broken, forecasting a major top / trend reversal is rash and unfounded from a technical viewpoint. This intermediate-term trend structure is the up trendline from January 2023 lows or some other more dynamic or flexible measures of trend. So with the idea that price can run a bit higher before any retracement—since we haven't yet seen a confirmation lower yet—these downside targets remain conditioned on a short-term trend reversal. For now, the targets also must be considered corrective retracements / mean-reversion targets within the context of the current trend until the evidence proves otherwise. Conservative Target: $245-$250 Moderate Target: $232-$238 Aggressive Target: $199-$218 Trends vs. Fundamentals A purely technical analyst or technically oriented trend trader tends to consider only the trend and technical evidence supporting that objective. At critical junctures after retracements / corrective moves, this means favoring trend continuation rather than a reversal until the evidence says otherwise. And pure trend following means seeing the odds as favoring mean reversion when a trend gets too extended or stretched rather than reversal. Ambiguity as to trend on varying time frames often confounds the discussion of trends. This is why it's important to remain precise and focused on time frames. For example, a long term secular trend in a given index can be upward while a primary trend can be downward or sideways (retracing / consolidating within the secular uptrend) while an intermediate trend can be upward (retracing or consolidating the primary downtrend)—and intraday traders levered up on calls and riding the short-term rip may be so hyperfocused on a rip in the short term that they dismiss a long-term analyst’s accurate characterization of corrective rally within a primary downtrend. This is just a hypothetical example of how vagueness around terminology and time frames doesn’t can obfuscate the proper technical approach to a given security. As discussed, TSLA’s trend right now is upward on the intermediate trend and minor (short-term) trends. But the primary trend is still arguably sideways when considered from 2-3 years ago. And the secular trend since 2010 arguably still remains upward. But may a trend trader peek outside the trend? That is a complicated question without a definite answer. For those wanting to explore whether it’s prudent to look at non-technical evidence outside the scope of the trend (e.g., considering the fundamentals and the broader macro), the following post offers some cost-benefit analysis and suggestions: For those who wish to avoid being influenced by fundamental information, please skip this paragraph and read on to the next one. Andrew Dickson, the founder of Albert Bridge Capital and CIO of Alpha Europe Funds recently noted the following incongruities (downtrends) in EPS-estimate trends vs. price trends: 1. In late 2022, TSLA’s sell-side analysts expected $6.34 EPS in 2023 (about 9 months ago estimates). 2. After TSLA reported delivery numbers in early July, Dickson noted that “despite today's apparent 4% rev beat (implied from delivery-numbers) for Q2, 2023 EPS expectations have plummeted to $3.50. So earnings expectations for TSLA are now down -55% in 9 months and yet the stock is up +15%.” 3. He concluded that "the 2023 P/E multiple has expanded from 38x to 79x, or by 107%." Dickson’s comments show that price is often not driven by fundamentals. Exactly what was priced in when the stock plummeted to $100 in January? And what is different now has nearly doubled off the lows? Or maybe the question is whether the data that gets priced in has different (and ever changing) weightings depending on the type of data. For example, maybe the data that affects price is most heavily weighted toward liquidity, capital flows, sentiment, seasonality, rather than fundamentals. But David Lundgren, a combined technical and fundamental analyst for whom SquishTrade has utmost respect, highly regards technical analysis, and especially favors technicals in the short / intermediate term, but says that fundamentals always matter in the long run. Here is a quotation from Lundgren from notes I've taken on his commentary in interviews and articles: "In the long-term, actual fundamentals will simply overwhelm any short-term technicals, emotions, sentiments driving a security or market price action." Concluding Comments Traders think in terms of probabilities, not certainties. Further, traders' time frames, risk management, and position sizes vary dramatically, which is why it seems imprudent to blindly follow another person’s signal service (whether paid or free). One very knowledgeable TV follower of mine has shorted TSLA with a position size that gives him a sizable margin of error. In other words, he can wait and allow significant fluctuations in price before getting shaken out of the position. My inference from our conversations is that his short thesis is based on deeply and persistently inverted yield curves, volatility being at major lows, deteriorating fundamentals at TSLA and other broader macro problems. But macro and fundamentals can take a great deal of time to unfold, i.e., they do not play out immediately, and if they did, the big short should have been weeks or months ago. This year everyone thought a recession would be here by now, including experts with long-term experience managing or advising multi-billion dollar funds. This does not mean my fellow trader must be wrong. His thesis might yet succeed with time and patience, or it may yet experience more pressure or even be stopped out. This is why position size, risk management, and time frames matter. Before entering a trade or investment, one must consider time frame, position size, risk tolerance, risk management, technical or fundamental evidence, and an invalidation or stop level (which defines risk and relates integrally to position size). Shorter-term traders with leveraged, derivative, or supersized short positions would have already gotten crushed trying to short TSLA or other mega cap leaders the last few weeks or months.
NASDAQ:TSLA
by SquishTrade
175
Sentiment Index UpdateToday I shared a video in my trading room of Tom Lee on CNBC post his CPI massive rally call which didn't materialize. One member pointed out: " Lol. The man in this interview is not “fearless.” He is having trouble getting it out, and he has concerns. He is impressed by the “pronunciation” of this move. " I share the sentiment chart so we can observe the mental psyche of both sides (Bulls and Bears) and how it never changes and just repeats. This sentiment causes buyers and sellers to vote each day through the buys and sells they execute...how they vote, provides us a visual pattern. This pattern is much more forecastable than the internal fundamentals. Best to all, Chris
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by maikisch
2
Stocks still struggling - $SPX copying late 2021?The risk in #stocks is still not to the upside. Took a trade before this rally, but that's it, a trade, already done too. Lower low today, still expect to be positive for the day, but until we get some sort of reversal, the risk is still to downside. TVC:DJI AMEX:UDOW NASDAQ:NDX is trying to find a bottom but here's not best place. Very light support. CBOE:SPX looks weakest of the 3. We could very well be doing what happened in late 2021. One last hurrah & then kaput.
SP:SPX
by ROYAL_OAK_INC