Nasdaq short setup - 01-06-23 - debt ceiling The chart is self-explanatory, discending channel, weak support and triangle pattern, when NYSE open i expect a break to the downside.
NASDAQ 100 CFD
Yields are diverging from SHORT TERM $TNX6 Month is still pumping & more overbought.
This is the only one still moving higher atm.
Serious divergence!
1Y surpassed the #bank collapse highs .
2Yr Stopped 50bps away from highs.
10Yr forming lower highs (the top was put in LAST YEAR), down channel & the long trend has been broken.
31052023 - $NDXNVDA hit 1 tri cap and it lasted just one day. It happened with Apple at 3 tri cap. Top is in? Price action do look somewhat bearish, with price capped by the PZ, could see a visit to the BZ. If so, looking for a possible bounce.
Elliott Wave Forecasts Nasdaq (NQ) to Continue HigherShort term Elliott Wave View in Nasdaq (NQ) suggests the rally from 4.26.2023 low is in progress as a 5 waves impulse with extension (nest). Up from 4.26.2023 low, wave ((i)) ended at 13370.25 and pullback in wave ((ii)) ended at 13001.75. Wave ((iii)) is currently in progress with internal subdivision as another 5 waves in lesser degree. The 1-hour chart below shows the rally within wave ((iii)). Up from wave ((ii)), wave i ended at 13494.25 and dips in wave ii ended at 13310.50. Wave iii ended at 13960.25, wave iv ended at 13794.25, and final wave v ended at 13979.25 which completed wave (i). Index then pullback in wave (ii) which ended at 13563.60.
The Index extended higher again in wave (iii) towards 14570 and pullback in wave (iv) ended at 14336.75. Expect Index to extend higher in wave (v) to complete wave ((iii)). Afterwards, it should pullback in wave ((iv)) to correct cycle from 5.4.2023 low before the Index resumes higher again. Wave ((iv)) typically ends at 23.6 – 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of wave ((iii)). The target can be measured after wave ((iii)) is confirmed complete. Near term, as far as pivot at 13563.6 low stays intact, expect pullback to find support in 3, 7, or 11 swing for further upside.
NASDAQ There is still room to riseNasdaq has been on an incredible rise since March 24th after hitting the MA50 (4h).
The MACD pattern is trading on the same sequence as the March 7th-17th and January 12th-27th patterns that led to new Highs on the 1.618 Fibonacci.
The long term pattern remains a Channel Up.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy on the current market price.
Targets:
1. 15100 (marginally under the 1.618 Fibonacci extension and the 15285 High of March 29th 2022).
Tips:
1. There is a secondary Channel Up (dots) since March 13th. This may lead Nasdaq to a smoother (and lengthier) rise to 15100.
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Notes:
Past trading plan:
NASDAQ: Overbought and in need of a technical pull-back.Nasdaq hit the 1.236 Fibonacci extension which was our target on the last call we gave and has turned overbought on the 1D time frame (RSI = 71.555, MACD = 292.250, ADX = 40.204). We are expecting a pull back to at least the 1D MA50 and the HL trend line. The most optimal buy signal will be when the 1D RSI touches its HL trend line. Next long term target is R1 and the 1.5 Fibonacci extension (TP = 15,300).
Prior idea:
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NDX Next MoveSo i mixed this one with volume + Gann box (volume calculated from other platform)
interstingly they are match
they say the same thing levels and direction movements
this is it guys
time will the tale i just told you, you will see.
30052023 - $NDXSimilar to SPX, as mentioned, US is open today; look for the reaction to the debt ceiling deal news. But with price below PZ, look for a move lower, with 14249 as a level of interest and a possible lower target of 14187.
all in short ndxthis is overobughjt and on fib go all in short free 400p, be careful for some bullcrap momenent tmrw maybe to 14500 so risk mangement is key but keep a short until it goes down to 14000, i want to se 13600
Stocks bull-run? Not so sure xD
#stocks
Everyone is currently awaiting the approval of the US national debt increase and, for some reason, they think it's very bullish. But why isn't it? The S&P index is essentially stagnant, while the Nasdaq is growing. However, this growth is driven by the seven giants, and if they are removed from the list, the Nasdaq has only grown by about 1% since the beginning of the year.
Are there any positive economic factors within the US economy? No, even the Federal Reserve is considering continuing the rate hike.
Now let's take a look at what happened in previous instances of US debt increase.
On December 16, 2021, it increased by $2.5 trillion, essentially marking the peak of the trend and the beginning of the current downward movement, which resulted in a 36% decline.
On May 19, 2019, there was a downward movement of 9%.
On May 19, 2013, it went down by 7.5%.
On August 8, 2011, it rapidly declined by 13%.
These are not all instances; there are many more dates. So why should the market continue to rise now? In my opinion, it's simply a short squeeze or a bull trap, and a downward movement in the market will follow.
Even from a technical analysis perspective, the Nasdaq has completed a correction to the 0.618 Fibonacci level. They might push it up a bit more to eliminate short positions and then comfortably head towards a test of 10-11k or until the economy regains its composure and the Fed reins in inflation.
NDX - Rising Trend Channel [MID TERM]🔹NDX shows strong development within a rising trend channel in the medium long term.
🔹ND has risen strongly since the positive signal from the double bottom formation at the break through resistance at 12042.
🔹There is no resistance in the price chart and further rise is indicated.
🔹RSI is above 70 after a good price increase the past weeks.
🔹High RSI may be a sign that the stock is overbought and that there is a chance of a reaction downwards.
🔹Overall assessed as technically positive for the medium long term.
Chart Pattern;
🔹DT - Double Top | BEARISH | 🔴
🔹DB - Double Bottom | BULLISH | 🟢
🔹HNS - Head & Shoulder | BEARISH | 🔴
🔹REC - Rectangle | 🔵
🔹iHNS - inverse head & Shoulder | BULLISH | 🟢
Verify it first and believe later.
WavePoint ❤️
NQ - W Set upNQ - W Set up
Double bottom set up, as long as it stays above 11400/500 areas as support. We are at current resistance that has been tested multiple times break above 12 1/2 I expect 13 1/2 and perhaps 14200/300 areas.
We did have FOMC and nothing new has been changed imo rate hikes continue..
Key tip: Higher time frame, less emotional attachment
Enjoy,
Trade Journal
Nasdaq -> Massively Bullish RallyHello Traders,
welcome to this free and educational multi-timeframe technical analysis .
On the weekly timeframe you can see that nas100 is actually approaching a quite obvious previous weekly structure area which is now acting as resistance at the $15.000 level.
You can also see that over the past couple of weeks, nas100 had a massively bullish rally and we are now a little bit overextended towards the upside, so I am now just waiting for a deeper push into the zone and then I do expect a short term rejection towards the downside.
On the daily timeframe you can also see that we are just rallying towards the upside without any correction, so I am now just waiting for some bearish rejection before I then do expect a short term drop also on the daily timeframe.
Thank you for watching and I will see you tomorrow!
You can also check out my previous analysis of this asset:
so much for new perspectives 🤣complete failure of proposed idea 🤣 Ongoing anal: until ES/SPX breaks out above 4300 and holds, I expect that we get more of the same: Tech and Semis, insomuch as they relate to AI, headed higher, while the rest of the market lags. However, there are hints of signs that the market wants to challenge the status quo and move higher, but more work is to be done.... BoLTA
Markets move back into IndecisionAnother update on the US Dollar index and its negative correlation with major markets. DXY has moved back into an area of indecision with regards to recoveries occurring across markets:
Bitcoin, Gold, Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq are all negatively correlated with the Dollar Index, with few exceptions, over the last year or more.
Many of these are also at major decision areas or have recently faced major resistances to further recovery. It is possible recoveries could continue while the dollar index remains in this area of indecision, or they could also remain in an area of indecision as well.
The main point here is to pay attention to what DXY does next, and:
-- For as long as it continues to be negatively correlated with these other major markets, expect them to do the opposite when DXY finally breaches and remains above or below the blue box above.
-- They may also do the opposite for any major moves within the indecision area as long as negative correlation remains true.
This is another major update to the following post:
Plus a more recent major update related to Bitcoin:
And, if you'd like to use the correlation indicator I recently made for comparing multiple markets, you can find it here:
Please take a moment to hit the thumbs up button if you like this idea, and I'd love to hear your comments whether you agree or have an alternative view that you'd like to share.
Thank you for reading and best of luck with your analyses and trading plans!
-dudebruhwhoa
nasdaq 🌊Greetings,
A mirror to my tableau painted for Bitcoin,
I surmise that the Nasdaq is engaged in the theatrical rendition of a cycle degree fourth wave.
Historically,
these fourth waves are prone to a tactical withdrawal into the realm of the prior degree wave four territory.
In this distinct instance, the territory in question lurks in close proximity to the abysmal pits of the pandemic nadir.
A bullish harbinger would manifest should the Nasdaq maintain an altitude above these pandemic depths for the duration of this bear market.
If such a trend is confirmed, i will dare to anticipate an audacious ascent to the lofty summit of $30,000 as we voyage through the decade towards the 2030 agi revolution.
---
w4 - $8,100
w5 - $30,000
☿
NASDAQ On a strong Channel Up eyeing 14400.Nasdaq / US100 is rising following a rebound on the 4hour MA50.
The pattern is a Channel Up with the 4hour MA200 the medium term Support since March 16th.
This rally can complete a +13.40% rise if it follows the March 13th - April 4th bullish wave.
Buy on the spot and target 14400.
Previous chart:
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Still intermediate bullish $NDXWe turned bullish last year mid October. We've turned short term bear every so often but have maintained the LONGER TERM Cautious bull narrative for some time.
IMO buy the dips is still working.
#NDX looking to open @ 2023 high
IMO we still have more upside
Debt ceiling ya ya ya (MARKETS ARE IRRATIONAL)
HOWEVER!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
On a WEEKLY basis:
We can sell off nicely & STILL be in upswing!!!
Downside moment has come for US indexes?Hello Traders,
In our previous posts,linked in the description, we've been tracking the last zig-zag of this primary wave (B) as it ascends. Our calculated completion targets fall within the yellow area, coinciding with the bullish descending broadening wedge targets, as well as the point where Y equals Z. This symmetry between the two most recent zig-zags in this corrective wave has informed our decision to set our longs at 13800 and initiate short positions at 13863, anticipating the advent of wave (C) and a potential move towards lower lows.
But the price action and chart patterns integral to our proposed count are just pieces of the larger picture. Several other indicators also support the potential scenario we've described.
Interestingly, over recent months, we've observed an unusual market behavior. The market has been ascending, despite a dominant narrative of impending recession and rate hikes—factors that typically instill bearish sentiment in retail traders. This resilience of the market is even more noteworthy when we consider its divergence from the Money Supply M2. Historically, the stock market has acted as an oscillator of the Money Supply M2.
It's crucial that we view this resilience of the market as a potential strategy to mislead retail traders. When the narrative was bearish, the market not only held its ground but thrived, possibly catching many retail traders off-guard.
Adding another layer to our analysis, let's consider the US 10-Year Treasury yield (US10Y). It's currently forming a bullish flag pattern, a positive signal that could potentially lead to higher yields. If this pattern confirms, it would be consistent with lower lows on indexes
In our upcoming posts, we'll explore these dynamics and their potential impact on market trends in the short to medium term. We'll also discuss what they mean for our trading positions. We keep in mind that FOMC today can be a good trigger for accelleration to the downside, but another wave up towards 14200 is still a concrete possibility.
Stay tuned for more updates, and trade safely in this volatile environment.
Bests
GMR
25052023 - $NDXNDX made a huge recovery after the initial sell off, hitting the weekly BZ and rebounded; I would say the initial up was technical, price is oversold at BB extremes but the subsequent rally was due to NDVA. Price is now supported by the BZ and PZ at the same prices thus a double support.
TBH, I thought the rally was rubbish but price action is looking bullish now. I did say that I am not convinced of the rally; thus it would either be a case of NDX strength supporting the other indices, or NDX to falter and bringing SPX down with it.
The location of such a bullish candle is uncommon to say the least, but I would say that to SPX/DJIA would be better candidates to go short from, while using NDX as reference.
😀 SVB Crisis Is Over?! What S&P500 and VIX Are Talking AboutThe stock market just flashed the first sign that investors think the Silicon Valley Bank crisis is over.
👉 The CBOE Volatility Index VIX closed below the 20 level on Wednesday, for the first time since SVB - The Silicon Valley Bank collapsed.
That is basically could be a constructive sign and is certainly counter to the general gloom of investors post SVB-failure.
👉 The VIX term structure is also back into normal contango. This normalization of spread is often a sign investors see the worst of the crisis behind.
The lower chart illustrates 3-months futures spread between VXN2023 a July, 2023 VIX Futures contract and the nearest - VXJ2023 - April, 2023 VIX Futures contract, that is three months ahead of that, marking that the reddish days are over.
👉 S&P500 Technical picture indicates the breakdown of reversed Head and Shoulders Chart Pattern structure is happening.
SPX is above weekly SMA (200) as it got the support early on Q4'22. 52-weeks simple moving average is trying to hold on above, for the 12th year in a row.
👉 If investors expect an imminent financial crisis but one doesn't materialize, the change in sentiment will help drive stocks higher as investors unwind bearish positions and get more bullish .
All-in, with stocks higher over the past six months since the mid-October low, so further upside could be ahead. If stocks do not make a new low post this crisis, the bears could capitulate.
