Weekly Update: So Far... Everything is Going According to PlanI’ve shared this chart with my followers for a couple months now. You can check my posting history to see how the forecasts have NOT changed, but the chart is filling in nicely. Tracking the minutia at the micro level has been maddening over the last month. In my trading room I’ve advised my members to focus on the intermediate term pattern depicted in the above chart.
Nonetheless, yesterday’s seemingly straight up move after about 9 am I’m sure scared traders who were positioned short. The irony of yesterday’s price action was although price traded not unexpectedly in my micro target box perfectly, I was expecting that sort of price action to take up till Monday or Tuesday of next week. So, in today’s market I’m not ruling out one more high into the 4170 area which would be the .786% retracement area. Much above that and the potential gets raised of invalidating our triangle pattern we started back in the last week of December 2022. But with no violation of the micro target box region which stood at 4130-4170 when price was at 4068.75 I have to continue to adopt the triangle pattern.
So how does this triangle pattern conclude?
I have guided both members and followers of my work with red arrows on the above chart since the end of February 2023 when the triangle pattern was first given credence. Currently, I am projecting this pattern to conclude mid-to-third-week in May. Yesterday’s price action has caused me to adopt a more sub-divided a-wave of our larger e-wave of the triangle, to complete our primary circle B. This was adopted after what I originally would be our a-wave came up slightly short of the 4064-4065 area, followed by a quick a-b-c retracement yesterday into 4166.50.
Yesterday’s price action, although introduced further complexity and sub-divisions into what I am projecting as an e-wave bottom in a larger triangle B…to the degree we do not eclipse 4170, but ultimately 4198.50 (which would be a new short term high).
I have to say… so far, everything is going according to plan.
NASDAQ 100 CFD
High volatility in the next 5 days!In the next five days we are going to have:
PCE
Consumer sentiment
PMI
JOLT
And most importantly:
FED interest rate decision
Important earnings of:
AMZN
AAPL
and 1500 other companies, some as big as XOM and CVX!
My quantitative model at the moment of publishing this chart: (This could change in the near future)
Is the FED going to increase the rate by another 25 points?
Based on today's PCE data, it looks like a very strong possibility!
nasdaq nalysis 24/04/2023dear traders last setup was respected this key level meant alot so follow the instruction and trade safe wait always for price action to react from each zone good luck
NASDAQ BREAKDOWN ANALYSISdear traders nasdaq wa in down trend after this drop it start to correct last move so follow the instruction in the chart and trade safe wait always for price action to react trade safe and good luck
NASDAQ Correction still has some steam left.Almost 2 weeks ago we called for a multi-day correction on Nasdaq (NDX) after the price broke below the Inner Higher Lows trend-line and the 1D RSI got rejected on the 70.00 overbought Resistance:
Our view is unchanged and we see a few more days extending this correction to the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) at least or the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level as it happened on the March 13 Low on the long-term Channel Up.
The only probability of this getting invalidated and start rebounding now is the potential buying pressure that the RSI Higher Lows trend-line may apply, which got hit yesterday. However we see more likely the scenario of the RSI transitioning into a Rectangle, having 43.40 as its bottom.
Our target remains 13400, which is a little under the 1W MA100 (red trend-line), that has rejected break-out attempts twice since May 05 2022.
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NASDAQ Bottom not in yet but closeNasdaq may be inside a long term Channel Up but for the whole month of April has been trading inside a Channel Down.
That is the same pattern that was formed after the February 2nd top.
The price hasn't touched the 1day MA50 since March 15th but is approaching it. We expect the bottom to take place a little under it.
Buy after closing under the 1day MA50 while the 1day RSI hits the bottom of the Channel Down and target 13550.
Previous chart:
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NQ RSI OversoldWent to grab some lunch (I'm on west coast) and noticed that RSI hit oversold on ES, NQ, and RTY. MI is not quite there yet but it'll hit it before market open tomorrow. If you;re short, I suggest closing some positions if not all.
Oddly, this is an indicator for me to buy PCAR, lol, but I think the earnings play was good enough since I'm taking the day off tomorrow. Gap direction will still depend on GOOG and MSFT earnings.
All cash, no trades, but I figure I'd post this for my awesome loyal followers.
Nasdaq -> Bearish Then BullishHello Traders,
welcome to this free and educational multi-timeframe technical analysis .
On the weekly timeframe you can see that Nas100 just recently perfecly broke above a major previous weekly resistance area at the HKEX:12 ,500 level which is now turned quite strong support.
You can also see that weekly market structure and moving averages are both bullish, indicating that we definitely have more upside potential long term so I am now just waiting for a deep retest of the previous resistance zone before I then do expect more weekly continuation towards the upside.
On the daily timeframe it seems like Nas100 actually formed a top formation over the past couple of days so I am now very interested in a short term short opportunity back to the weekly support at the HKEX:12 ,500 area before I then also do expect a next daily rally towards the upside.
Thank you for watching and I will see you tomorrow!
You can also check out my previous analysis of this asset:
What if....
what if we have a yield curve that hasn't been inverted this much in 40 years
what if we've enjoyed 15 straight years of bull markets
what if this is just the start of the correction
what if I told you that I've tested 50 indicators and identified that this correction (on a weekly scale) thus far has matched identically to the START of the dot com bubble (on a daily scale)- March 2000 to June 2000
what if I told you that if you scale the duration of start of the dot com crash to this correction, this correction would be 5.9 X the duration of the dot com bubble and this correction will end it 4.5 years.
I'd encourage you to examine the start of the dot com bubble from March 2000 to June 2000 (daily scale) and compare to the current weekly Nasdaq technicals and see for yourself.
I hope this isn't the case, but what if...
Good Luck
In Bitcoin You Trust?I keep hearing an awful lot about bitcoin is the future, that bitcoin will skyrocket to $100,000 which makes no sense because they fail to realize the amount of money that would take. I wonder where the money comes from...? In this chart, I will give my take on Bitcoin and where I see it going. If I am wrong, I gladly accept it but I highly doubt that I will be. Let's start where it begins:
Bitcoin 2017
In December 2017, Bitcoin futures were now offered and part of the market thanks to CBOE . As you can tell, in early 2018, up to Dec 2018 bitcoin wasn't following the equities market until 2019 where we see the Nasdaq rising consecutively from Feb 2019 until July 2019. In that same period we also see Bitcoin rallying. It isn't until March 2020 where we see the truth. Bitcoin crash as the same time as the markets did, and in fact it lead in terms of percentage lost, it was the worst performing asset.
Quantitative Easing
March 2020 saw the beginning of QE4, where the Fed started throwing money at everything. Hence the parabolic rise in the stock market, setting new all time highs.... during a PANDEMIC & RECESSION. Make sense? Not at all. The Fed is solely responsible for the markets rallying. Period. Ironic that at the same time the Equities market rises, Bitcoin also rallies.
Quantitative Tightening
In Nov, 2021, the Fed announced that QE had done its job (creating the biggest bubble ever) and now stated they were going to ease, and reduce their balance sheet . Well, as we saw, the Nasdaq AND Bitcoin peaked in November 2021 and started crashing significantly. Once again, Bitcoin was the leading loser and worst performing asset.
2023 Rally Explained
Now, investors are looking at Bitcoin rising from $16,000 to now $28,000 and saying this the beginning of a bull market. But, once again, with a little digging we see that stocks and bitcoin are rising because...... The Fed Balance sheet skyrocketed during the March banking crisis. Stocks were crashing but in came the Plunge Protection Team, saved the day by pumping the dying toxic stock market. The stock market is like a nice looking car, but under the hood and on the inside, it's all old, worn, broken, missing the engine, torn up and abused. The stock market does not reflect the economy, because if it did, the markets would be down 50% at least.
If you need a visual aid, search S&P500 vs Fed Balance Sheet
Conclusion and Key Take Away's
- Bitcoin follows the market, no doubt.
- Bitcoin benefitted from QE
- Bitcoin is NOT a safe haven, and in fact is -the worst asset to hold during turmoil.
- Bitcoin , like the equities market is manipulated and controlled.
So, where do I see Bitcoin going? I see it collapsing when the markets collapse. The markets can not hide the absolutely horrible economic data much longer. If this was 2008, based on this data coming out, markets would be far passed a correction. The ONLY thing holding this market up is the Fed and it'll continue to do so for a little more until it slips their control. So, if the stock market collapses and if we clearly see that Bitcoin follows the stock market to a T, than what does this mean for crypto when markets fall? It will once more collapse and be the worst performing asset when it does fall. Smart money is going into gold and silver . Everyone else believes in crypto as a safe-haven, yet clearly have not done simple due diligence to see that not only is it not a safe haven, but between commodities , stocks, and treasuries, crypto is absolute worst asset to own. The $30 trillion dollar QE charade bubble is about to explode and there is nothing anyone can do to stop it. The data is getting worse. The consumer debt is at record highs and savings are at record lows. Retail isn't coming back. Discretionary spending is down significantly. Demand has collapsed. ISM crashed. Manufacturing crashing. Housing is crashing faster and steeper than in 2008. Autos down significantly. Inventories are down to March 2020 lows. Orders are being cancelled. Layoffs are rising faster than in the last 3 years. The writing is on the wall folks, they can't hide this much longer. The greed will give way to financial pain.
Benefit from BTC crash?
Absolutely. Look into BITI and go from there ;)
NASDAQ: Consolidating. Breakout and pullback levels to considerNasdaq is consolidating around the 4H MA50 for the past 2 weeks with 1D technicals turning neutral (RSI = 54.883, MACD = 132.650, ADX = 34.947) for the first time in 1 month. The LH trendline on the 4H RSI hints to comparisons with the February consolidation. That pattern broke under the 4H MA200 to the 0.5 Fibonacci level and then rebounded.
Consequently, we are either buying a potential breakout over the consolidation Channel or a pullback near the 0.5 Fibonacci. In either occasion we target the R1 (TP = 13,750).
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Weekly Update: Is EVERYTHING about to come down together?Is a rare event when multiple planets are aligned in the night’s sky. It’s rarer still, when their aligned, and visible to the naked eye, and on-lookers do not require the use of a telescope.
Let me explain.
My crypto currency coverage list (SOL, ETH, BTC and ADA) have been rallying and hitting some of their initial sub-divided targets higher where I would soon expect them to retrace. Financials (XLF) could be completing a minor wave 4 high and now coming down in a wave 5. The SPX and the ES appears to have just completed their D-wave high in what I'm counting as a triangle and should be coming down as early as today. I suspect if I looked at some of the heavily weighted stocks of the SP500 they would show the same pattern and potential conclusion.
Is everything aligned?
The downside IN EVERYTHING appears clear enough, you don’t require a telescope to see that.
Netflix dumps and pumps after earningsYesterday, after the market close, Netflix reported its earnings for the 1st quarter of 2023. The tech giant missed analysts’ expectations, resulting in a quick and sharp selloff of nearly 12%. However, this move lasted only three minutes before the price started reversing to the upside. Within the next hour, shares erased all of their early losses.
The company posted $1.305 billion in net income, showing a decline of 18.3% YoY (in 4Q22, Netflix reported a net income of only $55.284 million). Revenue stood at $8.161 billion, up approximately 3.7% YoY and 4% QoQ. Operating income fell by 13% YoY. In addition to that, the average paid memberships rose by 4% YoY, with the company reaching 232.50 million global streaming paid memberships.
In 1Q23, Netflix launched paid sharing in four countries, and in the second quarter of 2023, the company plans to expand this service into more countries, including the USA. Furthermore, Netflix seeks to improve its revenue from advertisements and currency operations. For 2Q23, Netflix forecasts revenue of $8.2 billion, representing a 3% increase YoY. The company also expects to return $1.6 billion in operating income for the same period. Netflix shares are up approximately 105% since their low in May 2022 and about 16.5% year-to-date.
Other important information
The company’s operating income declined for four consecutive months in 2022 - 1.972$ billion in 1Q22, 1.578$ billion in 2Q22, 1.533$ billion in 3Q22, and 550$ million in 4Q22. The same applies to the net income in 2022 - 1.597$ in 1Q22, 1.441$ billion in 2Q22, 1.398$ billion in 3Q22, and 55$ million in 4Q22. In the first quarter of 2023, Netflix saw a significant rebound in both of these metrics.
Illustration 1.01
Illustration 1.01 portrays the 1-minute chart of Netflix stock. The yellow arrow indicates market close, which coincided with the release of the company’s financial results. Within the first three minutes following the announcement, shares dropped nearly 12% before erasing all losses.
Illustration 1.02
Illustration 1.02 displays the daily chart of Netflix stock. Yellow arrows indicate previous earnings, which were accompanied by a similar negative reaction in the price of shares.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
Nasdaq 100 showing HUGE upside with its Cup and Handle to 16,073Cup and Handle formed over the last couple of months.
A big one for that matter.
The price broke out of the brim level, but the price action has been very sloppy.
There is clearly a fight between the bulls and bears.
And so, that's why there's been a consolidation.
We can wait for the price to break above the small rectangle formation, before getting in to avoid a fakeout.
7>21>200
RSI>50 (Higher lows)
Target 16,073
SMC
Sell Side Liquidity (Order Block) is below the handle of the cup. Also the 200MA is around these levels which makes it another STRONG Level of liquidity for SM to buy.
The bias is very bullish, we just need the next push up.
Nasdaq -> This Is The SetupHello Traders,
welcome to this free and educational multi-timeframe technical analysis .
On the weekly timeframe you can see that nas100 just recently perfectly broke above, retested and already rejected a quite obvious weekly structure area exactly at the HKEX:12 ,000 area.
You can also see that we are approaching another weekly resistance area at the HKEX:13 ,200 level, you can also see that nas100 just had a pump of about 15% towards the upside over the past couple of weeks, so I simply do expect a short term correction back to the HKEX:12 ,800 area and then a next impulse towards the upside from there.
On the daily timeframe you can see that nas100 has been trading in a range over the past couple of days, I am also now just waiting for a deep retest of the next daily support zone at the HKEX:12 ,800 area and then there is a very high chance that we will also see more daily continuation towards the upside from there.
Thank you for watching and I will see you tomorrow!
You can also check out my previous analysis of this asset:
Major Recession on the Basis of Yield CurveThe US Treasury Yield Curve is currently inverted, meaning short term interest rates higher than long term interest rates.
This unusual occurrence, called a yield curve inversion, has historically been a very reliable indicator of an upcoming economic recession.
Since World War II every yield curve inversion has been followed by a recession in the following 6-18 months, and recessions are naturally correlated with decreased stock market returns.
The yield curve has not been this lowin over 40 years.
The yield curve indicator is always followed by a major drop.
Triggering of the yield curve indicator also (ALWAYS) lags the yield curve inversion.
In other words, the yield curve inversion must return positive before the indicator triggers.
This is due to the lagging effects of interests rates on the economy.
That being said, since the yield curve is currently severely low, we can expect (another) yield curve indicator to be triggered later.
Once it is triggered, I expect a long-term decline of the markets.
Based on historical data, the decline will last several months, if not years.
Best of luck (not financial advice).
NASDAQ Pullback to the Support, then buy for a new High.Nasdaq is consolidating around the MA50 (4h).
Every such consolidation that followed a High inside the Channel Up, pulled back to the Support of the last Higher Low.
Trading Plan:
1. Sell on the current market price.
2. Buy on the Support.
Targets:
1. 12520 (Support).
2. 13730 (Resistance 1).
Tips:
1. The MACD (4h) gives a buy signal when it crosses over the top of the Falling Wedge. It has happened on both previous patterns.
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NASDAQ: Gap fill at 13,750 imminentNasdaq has completed a rather neutral week, after getting rejected on the 0.5 Fibonacci, accurately depicted on the mixed 1D technicals (RSI = 59.704, MACD = 168.310, ADX = 29.641). The Rising Wedge is leading the index towards the R1, the most important Gap Fill of August. As long as the 1D MA50 supports, we will stay bullish (TP = 13,750).
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🥂CAC40: Croisière sur la Seine, avec une bouteille de ChampagneLuxury shares boost Europe's STOXX 600, French stock index TVC:CAC40 hit new record high.
European shares climbed on Thursday on a boost from luxury stocks after XETR:MOH posted upbeat first-quarter sales, while hopes of a pause in the Federal Reserve's rate hikes after signs of cooling U.S. inflation also aided sentiment.
👉 The pan-European STOXX 600 rose 0.4%, while the blue-chip index (STOXX50) gained 0.5%, inching closer to its highest level in 22 years hit on Wednesday.
👉 LVMH climbed 5.7%, closing at a record high after the world's largest luxury company reported a 17% jump in first-quarter sales that breezed past estimates as business in China rebounded sharply.
👉 European stocks have more than recouped last month's declines with gains of 1.4% so far, outperforming the benchmark SP:SPX index on Wall Street, amid ebbing fears of a steep recession in the euro zone.
👉 European stocks are seen as undervalued compared to their U.S. peers. With the economic outlook for the U.S. deteriorating, investors appear happier now to take advantage of this pricing skew and buy relatively cheaper European shares. The risk factor that had been associated with holding European shares is diminishing and this is allowing investment decisions to be made based more on fair value plays.
Technical pictures in France Stock Index TVC:CAC40 indicates the breakout of massive 20-year old Reversed Head & Shoulder structure, so it seems a lot of gain here is yet to come.🥂
NASDAQ More likely going lower but buy above this levelNasdaq is on a long term Channel Up but currently on a short term Channel Down.
If the latter continues to replicate the February Channel Down, Nasdaq can dip as low as 12400.
If the price crosses over the recent 13250 High, then the above is invalidated.
In both cases buy and target 14000.
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$VIX breaking a bit, showing Positive Divergence - Sold puts MayAs an FYI we're still cautious bull. We did initiate a CBOE:VIX position, by selling puts, as small hedge.
We've made clear what the targets on indices were, still think they can be hit.
TVC:DJI - 34250 - Major Resistance
NASDAQ:NDX - 13400 - Fib level
SP:SPX - Major resistance - 4181
But keep in mind;
IMF warning global debt levels = DANGEROUS
#Fed states > #recession coming
NASDAQ Correction for few days then buy the dipNasdaq (NDX) has gone a long way since we called for a rebound on the 1D MA200:
The recent rally within this Channel Up pattern that started in December (its second Bullish Wave), came to an end after it broke the Inner Higher Lows trend-line in similar fashion as the first wave did on February 17. That pulled-back to the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level before rebounding to a Higher High.
The current 0.5 Fib is on 12460, a little under the March 28 Low and the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), which has been basically supporting since mid-January. If the RSI bounces off its Higher Lows trend-line, then the bottom may come earlier. In any case, we will buy this pull-back and target 13400, a potential contact with the 1W MA100 (red trend-line), which rejected the August 16 High.
The best level to buy during this run is on the Higher Lows trend-line of the RSI. A similar Higher Lows trend-line during the January bullish leg (note that both sequences started on a Double Bottom), gave 5 clear buy entries.
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