NASDAQ is peaking. Short term pull back possible.Nasdaq is on the 5th sideways 1D candle, the first neutral (or non-bullish) sequence since the rally started on January 6th.
It is doing so after being rejected on Resistance 1, which was formed by the High of September 13th.
Trading Plan:
1. Sell if the price breaks below the MA50 4H.
2. Buy on Support 1.
3. Buy if the price breaks and closes above Resistance 1.
Targets:
1. 12000 (marginally above Support 1).
2. 12850 (marginally below Resistance 1).
3. 13700 (marginally below Resistance 2).
Tips:
1. The RSI 1D is on Lower Highs. A Bearish Divergence supporting a rejection.
2. Potential Golden Cross 1D on Support 1 near the end of February. Can provide a massive price boost.
Please like, follow and comment!!
NASDAQ 100 CFD
NASDAQ100 showing strong buying signs to 14,000W Formation has formed over the last few months.
We have had a break up out of the neckline and now looks like the price wants to bounce and run up further.
7>21>200
RSI>50 (Higher lows)
Target 14,000
With the Jobs added better than expected last Friday and with the signs of an economic recovery, The US is showing strong signs of a rally.
This could be before the catalyst for the expected fall.
Regardless, I am bullish for now and the charts don't lie!
NQ UpdateMFI is heading up but RSI isn't moving. Means the algos are having some trouble pumping the market, I think MFI gets overbought when NQ fills the gap and we just get sideways whipsaw until CPI next week.
As for my trading, I flipped my PDD calls on open and I'm done. Made a couple Ks. Did it because HSI was oversold yesterday, unfortunately it filled the gap above and came back down. If HSI had stayed up 1.2%, PDD would have shot up $4, because it always exaggerates HSI moves.
PCAR has 2 open gaps above, wondering if I should get some before the split. Gonna decide in a little bit.
NASDAQ 1st closing above the 1W MA50 in more than 1 year!Nasdaq (NDX) closed last week above the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time since the week of January 10 2022, so effectively for more than 1 year. On this analysis we diverge from our usual 4H - 1D time-frame analysis such as the recent one below, and look into the bigger picture on the 1W time-frame:
Having broken two weeks ago above the Lower Highs trend-line of the Bear Cycle, this 1W MA50 closing last week is the last of the bullish confirmations we need to validate that the long-term trend has changed.
With the price however rejected on the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level, we may see a short-term pull-back, especially since the 1W RSI hit the top of the Rising Wedge that is holding since March. The Support Zone is now within the 0.236 Fib and the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line). If however the index closes above the 0.382 first, we expect a structured continuation of the recovery to at least the 0.786 Fib by the start of Q3. See how almost perfectly the Fib retracement levels match key Resistance and Support lines of the Bear Cycle. The market should treat them as demand/ supply zone on the way up too.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! **
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
💸💸💸💸💸💸
👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
NASDAQ: Rejected on a key symmetrical Resistance.Nasdaq has a rather strong intra day rejection on Friday after the much higher than anticipated Nonfarm Payrolls. This turned the 4H time frame neutral already (RSI = 57.749, MACD = 127.790, ADX = 34.304) but with 1D still bullish buying pull-backs remains the most optimal strategy until a Support breaks.
Right now the rejection took place on R1, which as shown on the chart formed two tops in the past (September 13th, June 3rd). If the price crosses below the HL trend-line, it is highly likely to seek the S1 zone for a potential contact with the 1D MA200 and 1D MA50. All this is negated if we break over R1, which will trigger our buy (TP = 13,500) towards R2.
If not, we will buy on the 1D MA200, hence inside S1 and if it fails make the last attempt at 11,340 just over S2. Note that the 1D RSI hit the overbought territory just like on August 15th. An additional reason for selling pressure.
## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ##
## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
Think it's impossible? Think again....Will be the biggest inflation or deflationary crisis in the US. Will be in the history book. IMO.
NQ1! NAS100 NASDAQ 2023 FEB 06 WEEK
Result for week of 30 Jan yielded yielded 550pts in total for 2 trades.
Market was resisted at a previous supply area.
Supply has come in to defend the 12987 area, with a potential
for market to return to test 12140-11983.
Possible scenarios:
1) Long on test and accept of breakout area 12140-11983
2) Short at rejection of 12987-12927 // 12618
Volume Analysis:
Weekly = Higher vol up bar close off high = Weakness
Daily: Potential 2BR high vol = Weakness
H4 = 2BR + UT + down bar = Weakness
Price reaction levels:
Short on Test and Reject | Long on Test and Accept
13587 12987-12927
12618 12140-11983
11603
Remember to Like and Follow if you find this useful.
Have a profitable trading week ahead.
NDX is setting up an island reversal pattern going into the nextMight still consolidate into early next week
It's a full Moon tomorrow, and markets like to top or bottom at or near the full Moon.
We def got the high here today and yesterday.
NQ UpdateNQ is now back in the channel and no longer overbought. Wondering if the melt up continues despite really strong jobs numbers. Can;t tell if stocks are doing a gap fill or continuing the rally.
TSLA is green and I gotta go for a drive so I just flipped my LI puts. Beer money. Should've shorted gold, lol. AT least I was right about China, but market doesn't expect it to move down Monday because PDD isn't tanking like yesterday.
NASADQ trend lines and channelsAnother of my big picture looks at the NASDAQ. You can see that we had a strong rally off the bottom of the blue channel, and right now it is around the middle of the channel. In the big picture though, we have barely come down out of the massive QE and low interest rate bubble created after the financial crisis. I find it hard to get too into this rally, we saw Meta rally 20% even with its latest financial report show something like $4 Billion in losses, but some vague promises about "Year of Efficiency". That tells me that markets are very FOMO right now after a really hard year and are looking for anything to recapture the bubble of 2021. Labor reports continue to be strong, which seems to be feeding the rally, especially so after the Fed's super dovish 0.25% hike and "disinflation" nonsense. The break above the 200 day SMA and crossing of the 20 and 200 day are also really bullish signs. That said, pick your favorite quote about the market: 1) Markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent or 2) Bull markets climb a wall of worry. Good luck.
Daily
NASDAQ Pull-back started. Where to re-buy.Nasdaq (NDX) made a perfect pull-back and rebound following our most recent analysis and hit (even overextended) our 12530 target:
Since the rise has been that strong we are switching to a Fibonacci approach. The previous two pull-backs (almost) hit both the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level before rebounding around +9.00%. From yesterday's High, the 0.618 Fib is at 12290. A contact with the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) will further solidify it as a buy entry. Our buy target in that case will be 13370 (around +9.00% rise, which happened 3 times in January). Additionally, the RSI Buy Zone can also help to determine if that timing to buy is right.
This 1-month pattern will be invalidated if the price closes below the Higher Lows trend-line, in which case Nasdaq will seek the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) as the long-term Support.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! **
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
💸💸💸💸💸💸
👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Nasdaq -> The End Of The Bear MarketHello Traders,
welcome to this free and educational multi-timeframe technical analysis .
The Nasdaq is currently creating a massively bullish weekly double bottom and with this weeks rally already broke above the neckline of the double bottom.
From a weekly perspective I am not just waiting for a retest of the neckline, which is then turned support and then I am definitely looking for the longer term continuation to the upside.
On the daily timeframe, my prediction of the last video analysis played out perfectly and this was also a very juicy trade for me personally. Now we are testing daily resistance, so I am just waiting for an opportunity to get short, to then capitalize on the short term retracement towards the downside.
Thank you for watching and I will see you tomorrow!
You can also check out my previous analysis of this asset:
NQ UpdateAH gap filed during Asian hours and RSI is overbought but more than likely a melt up. I might not post for a while because indicators don't work during a melt up and I don't want to be misleading anyone.
Tomorrow depends on AAPL/AMZN/GOOGL earnings. Pull back or more pumptardedness? I dunno, but I don't recommend shorting until NQ and ES fill the gaps marked in orange.
Good luck.
Bunch of copy paste quotes on Fed Meeting, $DJI $NDX GREAT DAY!Apologize for the LATE post on this
We posted this elsewhere, documented, and bringing it here
----
Yesterday
So, #fed tomorrow.......
We get 25, likely rally and fade next day or few days later
We get 50, likely sell off decently & then rally
This could reverse in one day or take week or more
#FederalReserve meeting
#stocks #crypto #inflation
Done for today :) Good day overall
----
Early Today, after announcement-
Was at least expecting a pop first before the fall
Interesting day today
Maybe we get the fall and then the rally...
However how we end the day, the next day tends to be a reverse of some sort
$DJI $NDX $SPX
----
After-
For a second we though we were going to get put (sold a bunch of put options when $DJI was off 340 points and $NDX was closer to day lows) a ton of #stock ROFL
Limits being filled, not being greedy
#crypto green
US #Dollar $DXY hitting lows (did say HISTORICALLY doesn't hold)
-
We've been cautious #BULL for a bit & we need 2b weary of EUPHORIA
We're watching for that, IMPORTANT!
$VIX @ bottom trend (we'll know VERY SOON what's up)
#yield falling $TNX, 2yr not as much, hmmm
#stocks huge turnaround
#crypto as well
What about volume? Soon
----
$NDX & $DJI BUY volume is still there but it's lowering
#DJI looking GOOD atm
$NDX NO slouch testing downtrend soon
#markets ARE IRRATIONAL
Look at volume, patterns & trend!!!
----
Recent
Awesome #stock day today! Good for the week!
Raised cash again for trading
Have some longs still
$DOW $META (taking some off here), $KHC $INTC $ATVI & some others BUT aggressive TRADING still 1/3 in bonds, expire soon, & cash for tomorrow & other days
Done for day &👀direction
---
Look at $RUT $IWM
RISK is ON ON ON
Has been on
Volume is ok
#stocks have been looking ok
$DJI breaking symmetrical = continuation pattern
Staying cautious BULL!
More haters of rally = GOOD!
Keep eye on EUPHORIA!
Will this week reveal an ongoing earnings recession?On 5th January 2023, we noted that the breakout above the upper bound of the descending channel would be bullish for the Nasdaq 100 index in the short term. Quickly after that, NQ1! broke above the resistance and embarked on the longest winning streak since November 2021. This recent move-up has been accompanied by market euphoria and overly bullish calls. Many investors are already dismissing the prospect of recession in 2023 and thinking the bear market is over. However, these calls are likely to turn out to be premature. Therefore, we will pay close attention to earnings reports from various companies. We will seek a decline in corporate profits to confirm our bearish thesis (beyond the short term). In addition to that, we will look for downgrades in future outlook and warnings over the slowing economy. As a result, we expect reality to creep back into the market and drag it lower over time. Accordingly, we maintain our 2023 price target for NQ1! at $10 000.
Big names reporting their earnings this week:
Microsoft
J&J
Verizon
Lockheed MartinRaytheon Technologies
General Electrics
Tesla
AT&T
IBM
Boeing
General Dynamics
Illustration 1.01
Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of NQ1!. The yellow arrow indicates a bullish breakout above the resistance, followed by the longest winning streak since November 2021.
Technical analysis
Daily time frame = Bullish
Weekly time frame = Slightly bullish
Illustration 1.02
Illustration 1.02 shows the daily chart of NQ1! and two simple moving averages. We would like to see the index break below the 50-day SMA to support a bearish thesis. Contrarily, we would like to see the price hold above the 50-day SMA to support a bullish continuation of the rally.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
YOU need to see this now - THE DANGER LINEThis is a wave trend indicator on the S&P 500 index that is based on relative strength with straightforward oversold or overbought conditions. Relative strength is a measure of momentum where both speed (time) and magnitude (change) is measured and plotted with simple or weighted moving averages.
What you are seeing above is a snapshot of a RSI/wave trend of the S&P 500 index based on monthly candles. Understand that it takes the measure of a month of time just to get a single plot of data and this particular snapshot represents over two decades. But right before your eyes are very clear trends. The data is just pure and simple math and math does not lie. Ignore the news. Follow price, volume, momentum.. just follow the data.
I will try not to state my opinion too much.. and just follow the data. What I see on the chart is concerning. If this decline continues over the next month or two, momentum is going to accelerate and volatility go up while the market basically crashes... i.e. if the DANGER LINE is breached. I found it odd that volatility (VIX) has been quite docile considering the amount of downside we've seen in the indices this year. That is concerning. It is entirely possible that the September thru November monthly candles are positive and this trend finds support.. and the danger line is not breached. On the flipside, this decent can continue and really pick up speed and we see a 2000-2003 correction or 2007-2009.
Here is an overlay snapshot with those corrections to similar scale. That is what could happen if the current trend continues.. we could see 12-24 months of recession and very steep drops and sharp bearish reversals. Be careful, manage risk, consider hedging certain positions, and know that you DO NOT know what is going to happen.
NASDAQ holding the 1 month patternNasdaq (NDX) is pull-back following Friday's high. This is nothing more than a technical 1-month pattern which, supported by the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) is posting rises around +6% and pull-backs around -3.5%.
The 4H MA50 is currently a little over 11800 and a -3.80% pull-back (max on the pattern) can make exact contact with it tomorrow. With the Higher Lows trend-line just below it, we are willing to buy there and aim at a +5.85% rise at 12530.
The 4H RSI Buy Zone can offer additional insight on the buy entry. A break and closing below the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line), would be a trend change and sell signal towards 10800.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! **
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
💸💸💸💸💸💸
👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
$VIX @ lower level of symmetrical triangle$VIX is beginning to wake up
$VXN also (for $NDX)
Both @ lower ends of spectrum while Indices are at upper end
Next few days important
#FederalBank meets as well
#stocks #crypto #bonds
Nasdaq Weekly Forecast 30 Jan - 3 Feb 2023 Nasdaq Weekly Forecast 30 Jan - 3 Feb 2023
Based on the data from VXN we can see that currently the IV for this week is at 25.01%, equal to last week.
This can be translated in +/- 3.47% weekly movement from the open of the candle, which makes the next top/bot channel
TOP: 12640
BOT: 11788
The probability to break this channel(aka the close of the weekly is going to end up either above/below this channel) is at
If we were to make a more accurate statement, based on the current percentile of the VXN( from 0 to 10) , we can apply a condition in the filter
to look for scenarios when the volatility were lower than 50 percentile( bottom half). If we were to take this data we can see, that our numbers would be:
84% according to the last 20 years of data
100% according to the data since 2022( I would recommend the 87% instead)
So we can use this data instead for proper calculation of our trading plan
From the technical rating analysis point of view we can deduct the next information:
Currently there is a :
78% to touch the previous weekly high
26% to touch the previous weekly low
At the same time if we are going to take a look at the moving average rating for different timeframes we can see :
4H Timeframe: +53% Bullish Trend
D Timeframe: +66% Bullish Trend
W Timeframe: -26% Bearish Trend
Lastly on average, based on the current percentile, we can expect that our asset is going to move:
3.37% from the open to the close candle for the bullish scenario
3.4% from the open to the close candle for the bearish scenario
