75% gains BUY/HOLD IWM/RUS2K C*H trade setup🔸Hello traders, today let's review 2daily chart for IWM . Entering re-accumulation stage now, expecting range bound trading during next fer months. We've hit heavy overhead resistace / limited upside currently.
🔸The speculative chart pattern is bullish C*H in progress, expect more range locked price action for a few months as we re-accumulate and get ready to clear the ATH. Measured move price projectiong for the C*H structure is 350 USD, 75% upside from the recommended BUY ZONE.
🔸Recommended strategy bulls: wait for IWM to re-accumulate in the sliding
bull flag formation and get ready to BUY/HOLD low near 200 USD, target
based on measured move projection is 350 USD. good luck traders!
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NASDAQ 100 CFD
Can the MAGNIFICENT 7 outperform once more?We have seen the Magnificent 7 (Apple, Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Nvdia, Meta, Tesla) underperform historically but since the start of the year this hasn't been as strong as previously (roughly +35% for M7 against + 25% for Nasdaq). The former can be seen on the left chart while the latter on the right. This goes so far against the aggressive nature of the Magnificent 7 (M7), which have outperformed Nasdaq on all previous rallied by around +50%.
In fact the M7's first major rally (2016 - 2018) rose by +140% while NDX's by +97%. The second major rally (2019 - 2021) registered +315% for MA7 and 'just' +185% for NDX. If there is any progression between them, we can argue that the current rallies will be even stronger. Of course the sample isn't big enough for solid conclusions and multi-year rallies can't keep getting stronger on each Cycle for ever.
What is reasonable to count on however, is that as the Fed stepped in recently and gave the market the first Rate Cut in years, a new Cycle of cheap money to invest with has started and we can expect rallies of equal strength with the previous ones. For M7 (+315%) that's $440, so around +60% from the current levels, while for Nasdaq (+185%) that's 30000, so around +47% from the current levels. Not an incredible difference considering the risk that highly volatile stocks like the M7 bear. This could be a sign that the market is shifting to other stocks during this Cycle and the M7 potential may be fading.
In any event, do you think the Magnificent 7 will start to outperform Nasdaq again and if so is this worth the risk than investing your capital on the 100 companies of the index?
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NASDAQ Fully bullish on a Channel Up.Nasdaq / US100 is making a rebound inside the Channel Up initiated on Sep 6th.
The pattern is similar to the Channel Up of the April 19th low, which stayed above the 1day MA50 and targeted the 2.618 Fibonacci level.
The 1day RSI indicates that we are on a similar level as May 31st.
Buy and target 22400 (Fib 2.618).
Previous chart:
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NASDAQ: Bullish breakout is taking placeNasdaq is marginally bullish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 57.848, MACD = 196.930, ADX = 44.220) and that shows the strong upside that the 1H momentum has today. Technically it is on a similar situation like Sep 19th when it crossed over a Channel Up and made a +3.00% rise on the 2.0 Fib. A 1H Golden Cross is about to take place, so we think that is a strong buy entry to target a +3.00 rise (TP = 20,300).
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NASDAQ INDEX (US100): Bullish Move From Support
US100 has a nice potential to go up from a key daily horizontal support.
As a confirmation, I see a double bottom pattern on a 4H time frame
and a confirmed breakout of its horizontal neckline.
Goal: 20000
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NASDAQ critical crossroads for the short-term.Nasdaq (NDX) recovered its 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) on Friday, which is something that puts the short-term pull-back since September 26 on hold. In fact, as long as the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) holds, the index is more likely to resume the long-term Channel Up pattern and post a similar +11.00% rebound. So for now, we remain bullish, targeting 21600 (+11.00% from the last week's low).
If on the other hand the 4H MA200 breaks, we will most likely extend the short-term correction all the way to the dotted Higher Lows trend-line. Of course in that case, the (blue) Channel Up will be invalidated, and we will take the loss on the long and sell instead, targeting 19000.
The 4H RSI is posting a Bear Flag similar to August 29 - September 02, which favors the bearish scenario.
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NASDAQ - Short active !!Hello traders!
‼️ This is my perspective on NASDAQ.
Technical analysis: Here we are in a bearish market structure from 4H timeframe perspective, so I look for a short. I expect bearish price action after price filled the imbalance and rejected from OB + trendline.
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TSLA: 125% gains Best Level to BUY/HOLD 🔸Hello traders, today let's review 4hour price chart for TSLA.
Currently a mixed package overall with limited upside potential,
I don't recommend entering any buys at current price.
🔸Ongoing accumulation since May 2023, significant lows printed
in April 2023 / 2024, so I'm tagging April 2025 as a potential reversal
for TSLA / bottom buying near range lows totally makes sense.
🔸Accumulation range defined by range lows at 175 usd
and range highs at 255 usd. premium prices below at 145/165
and above at 280 and 305 usd.
🔸Recommended strategy bulls: expecting pullback based on measured move projection set to extend further down towards 175 usd. currently
trading at 250 usd, no entries recommended on buy side. This is a
trade setup for patient traders. may take more time to develop.
conservative target is 350 USD, so +125% gains off the lows.
🔸Finally, check out the TSLA related story below and let me know
in the comments section if you'd like to get more updates like this.
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Year 2030. Tesla coupe safely lands on Mars. Exploration mission
starts in April 2030.
▪️ In this fictional tale in 2030, Tesla founder Elon Musk and his wife Grimes make a historic landing on Mars, marking a new era in space exploration.
▪️ Upon arrival, they establish a settlement called "New Teslaville," aiming to turn it into a sustainable colony for future generations.
▪️ Their first day involves setting up essential infrastructure, including solar panels, an oxygen generator, and a Mars rover.
▪️ The next day, they plant a Tesla flag on Mars, signifying humanity's first successful landing on the red planet.
▪️ On day three, Musk shares a heartfelt message about the importance of space colonization for humanity's survival.
▪️ After a successful first week, they receive a message from Earth, indicating the start of the "New Mars Era" and their status as the first Martian settlers.
▪️ The couple ends their week by enjoying the Martian sunset in a Tesla coupe.
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NASDAQ: New buy level approaching.Nasdaq has almost turned neutral again on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 55.199, MACD = 255.840, ADX = 43.908), which is gradually starting to wave a buy signal again as the price almost hit the 4H MA200. Technically if the 4H RSI approaches the oversold level of 30.000, it is the first buy entry inside the Channel Up. We already have a 4H Golden Cross in our hands. Expect at least a +15.55% rise (TP = 21,150) to complete this bullish wave.
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NASDAQ This rally isn't over yet.Three weeks ago (September 09, see chart below) we gave a very timely buy signal on Nasdaq (NDX), just after it touched its 1D MA200 (orange trend-line):
As you can see, the index started a relentless rally, breaking the August 22 High, and the Lower Highs trend-line in the process. We don't expect that Leg to be over yet. Based on the two previous Bullish Legs of the 2-year Channel Up, they first touched the Inner Higher Highs trend-line and then pulled back to the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line).
As a result, we expect a continuation of the upside with a short-term Target around 21000 and then after mid to end of October, pull-back towards the 1D MA50 going into the U.S. elections.
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spx &nasdaq in an iminent drop of valuespx showing an iminent short going in value, where it can go? last time i tryed to do the math it would go arround 2700 but without any sure, the major stock whealtiest did a 3x wealth since covid drop, this could be another timer that can quintuple the value, or make more 15x time the value that they had before covid, it is an iminent drop coming, in my opinion, good for everyone even for world economies, to triple their whealth and put the profits in their balance sheet and put time their gdp growth, is a question of timing, after covid drop, that in my opinion, didnt had too much growth in manufactories and jobs, only people gowing ther whealth by the 'inflation' fault,
anyway, there is an iminent drop in the stock market in the western countries, at least, im not into asian market but american indexes are in an eminent significant drop, in my POV.
NASDAQ: Short term bullish if the 1H MA50 holdsNasdaq turned on excellent bullish technicals on the 1D timeframe (RSI = 63.446, MACD = 268.010, ADX = 43.526) and that sets the tone for a strong medium term continuation. On the short term 1H timeframe however, we had a strong pullback today of -1.75%, the strongest inside the the two week Channel Up, but along the lines of the previous two. It managed to reach the 1H MA50 and is consolidating on it.
The 1H MA50 has been holding for the past week and as long as it continues, this will be the best buy opportunity to aim for a new +3.30% rise (TP = 20,600). If it breaks however, the pattern is negated, so keep the SL tight around pattern limits.
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NASDAQ rally until the end of the year supported by the 1dayMA50Nasdaq has held the 1day MA50 after the Fed cut last week and is extending the rally.
The long term pattern has been upward since the 2022 bottom supported by the 1day MA200, which is the best buy entry long term when touched.
The 1week MACD is about to form a Bullish Cross, which is formed after every bottom these past two years.
The main rallies during that time have been more than +30%.
Our target for the end of the year, as long as the 1day MA50 supports of course, is 22500.
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NASDAQ gave the best longterm bullish signal. Is 25300 possible?Nasdaq (NDX) confirmed the bounce on the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) as argued on our previous analysis (September 09) and the rebound made the ultimate bullish break-out last week, as it crossed above the Lower Highs trend-line of the July 11 All Time High (ATH), giving us the most consistent long-term buy signal on a 2-year basis.
As you can see on this chart that goes as back as October 2022 and the bottom of the Inflation Crisis Bear Cycle, the two times that Nasdaq broke above such Lower Highs trend-line, while being above the 1D MA200, it gave the best buy signal possible, with both rallies peaking after a +49% and +48% rise respectively.
The Sine Waves have also confirmed early this month that the index bottomed and now we have the ultimate bullish break-out confirmation. The longer the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) holds the better, but even if it breaks (April 2024), we still expect that we are on a similar Bullish Leg that should top in roughly the same way (+47% i.e. one percent less than the previous).
This gives us a long-term Target of 25300 for March - April 2025. We have plotted the Bullish Legs of 2023 and 2024 and as you can see, even though they diverge at times, they always converge again, forming a rough Channel Up, which can be a representation of our estimate course.
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NASDAQ: Clear path to 21,150. Checked all bullish signals.Nasdaq is on very healthy bullish 1D technicals (RSI = 60.054, MACD = 172.430, ADX = 25.087) as not only it crossed and closed over the LH trendline of the previous Top but kept the 4H MA50 as support and formed a 4H Golden Cross. The driving pattern seems to be yet again a Channel Up and this is its second bullish wave structure. Keeping the 4H MA50 intact should technically push the price to a HH. The previous wave topped a +15.55%, which is the basis for our target (TP = 21,150).
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SP500 Futures Chart Now in Final Stages of 100 year RallyCycles are a normal part of life. The stock market is no different. In my long term analysis we appear to be headed up to an area that can complete a rally that started almost 100 years ago.
For context, this long-term consolidation will be similar to Japan's Nikkei index in which made no new high's for 34 years.
FOMC (FED) 50 bps Cut - What's Next???FED cut 50 bps today (as CME FED Watch Tool predicted), but it was one of the closer toss-up probabilities at 55% to 45% odds.
Today's 50 bps leaves room for more to come and the market is anticipating 10 cuts in 11 FOMC meetings out through 2025.
The market's resilience has been impressive, but until the market is satisfied with more "good news" on employment, inflation, and earnings growth...fresh all-time highs and rips may prove elusive in the near term.
Thanks for watching and enjoy the video!!!
Nasdaq-100 Index. The Psychological Aspects of Round NumbersIn the complex dance of commerce and finance, price tags play a key role in influencing consumer decisions.
While it’s a fairly common psychological assumption that every penny and cent counts when it comes to getting the best deal, human psychology often deviates from this linear logic. In this educational post, we explore the irresistible appeal of round numbers, and how they often trump other considerations when making transaction decisions.
The Irresistible Attraction to Round Numbers
We do often believe that every penny counts in our transactions. However, research shows a striking deviation from this assumption. In scenarios where people choose a price, such as tipping at a restaurant or donating to beloved author or website, they disproportionately choose round numbers — like $ 5, $ 10 or $ 20 — far more than would be predicted by chance alone.
One could argue that this is due to the rejection of change, a reluctance to waste time on small change, and the unwillingness to bother with complex mathematics. However, even in cases where the exact bill is not an issue (e.g., cashless card payments), the preference remains.
For example, diners faced with a non-round bill (for example $ 34.67) are more likely to give non-round tips ($ 15.33), but only so that the total is a neat round number ($ 50).
Why do we prefer round prices? And what is the psychology behind it?
1) Cognitive simplicity: The human mind is programmed to simplify and seek simplicity. Numbers like 10, 50, or 100 inherently feel “cleaner” and less chaotic than 17, 62, or 84. This desire for neatness gives us a sense of accomplishment.
2) Perception of quality: The marketing world has long capitalized on this preference for round numbers. Brands strategically associate round prices with premium quality. On the other hand, odd prices like “29.99” or “34.99,” while ubiquitous, subconsciously signal here's a discount or a bargain.
3) This preference is not limited to prices. People exhibit this tendency to round in other aspects of life as well. Our repeated exposure to round numbers is common in a variety of contexts, both in everyday life and during financial transactions, which contributes to an unconscious bias toward them. This cognitive ease with round numbers further perpetuates the preference.
The stock market’s behavior and its fluctuations around these significant, round numbers is not a coincidence in general; there is a psychological explanation.
Market Psychology of Round Numbers
When the market reaches round numbers such as 500 or 1,000, 2,500 or 5,000, 10,000 or 20,000, it attracts the attention of both active traders and casual investors who may not even be actively following the market.
As in everyday life, people often use round numbers as thresholds for making investment decisions. For example, some may decide to enter the market if a major index such as the Nasdaq-100 has exceeded 10,000, or they may decide to sell some of their stocks if the Nasdaq-100 has reached 20,000.
These round numbers act as magnets for sellers as they mark important milestones given the relatively high rarity of a round number. If the market has the potential to move higher, it first needs to absorb the selling pressure around the round numbers and establish equilibrium before continuing its move higher.
If we analyze the market behavior over the last decades, we will see clear patterns at round numbers. Let us take a closer look at a few examples.
1) Indian Stock Index, Sensex BSE:SENSEX
Sensex, one of the major market indices in India, has its share of round number syndrome. For example, when Sensex reached 10,000 points in Q1 2006, it experienced significant market activity, with the index fluctuating by as much as 30 percent in Q2.
The same phenomenon occurred at multiples of 10,000.
Thus, at 20,000 points, which the Indian market reached at the end of 2007, the index collapsed by more than 60 percent over the next 4 quarters of 2008.
Later the 20,000 mark has been reached again in the second half of 2010, and the index again suffered a decline of more than 20 percent during 2011.
Later Indian stock market index reached the 30,000 mark in the first quarter of 2015, and its led to a price decline of more than 20 percent in the next 4 quarters, while 40,000 mark in the fourth quarter of 2019 - led to the market decline by 30 percent on the wave of COVID-19 sales.
2) Gold market OANDA:XAUUSD
As in the previous example, round numbers often become key points of congestion for Gold market, when the market tries to break even higher, but the forces of buyers and sellers may be unequal.
For example, spot Gold reached the $ 1,000 mark for the first time in the Q1 2008, which, following the logic discussed above, led to sales and 30 percent decrease.
Gold spot buyers have tried a lot to reach $ 2,000 mark in 2011, but it brought the market down by 45 percent over the next 5 years. There were also a lot of unsuccessful attempts to jump above $ 2,000 in 2020-2022.
Finally Gold spot surged above $ 2,000 only in Q4 2023, its led to further price increase, up to 2500 US dollars per ounce.
3) US stock index, Nasdaq-100 index NASDAQ:NDX
The Nasdaq-100 index approached the 10,000 point mark for the first time in Q1 2020, which could have contributed to the sell-off. In fact, this is what happened, as the market then plunged by more than 30 percent in March 2020, and only thanks to monetary support measures and the reduction of US interest rates to almost zero, the index was able to break the 10,000 barrier by the end of Q2 2020.
Reaching the 20,000 mark by the market index in Q2 2024, as we see, again leads to increased turbulence in US tech stocks and talk of imminent monetary easing by the Fed.
Final Thoughts
1) It is important to note that round number syndrome and increased seismic activity near rounds number is a short-term phenomenon. Once the selling pressure is absorbed, the market resumes its movement based on other factors and develops independently of these already passed milestones.
2) Understanding the market behavior at round numbers can provide valuable information to investors. These round numbers act as psychological triggers for investors, driving their decision-making processes.
3) Understanding this phenomenon allows investors to make more informed choices and understand the short-term fluctuations that occur during these stages.
NASDAQ Index Overview: Current Market Drivers & Future ProspectsThe NASDAQ Composite Index, known for its heavy concentration in technology stocks, has experienced a rollercoaster ride in recent months. On Monday, the index declined by 0.52%, in stark contrast to the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average, which both saw gains. The NASDAQ’s dip amid the broader market's positive performance highlights the ongoing volatility and shifts in investor sentiment within the tech-heavy index. Let’s take a deeper look into the drivers influencing the NASDAQ Composite.
Current Fundamental Drivers
1. Interest Rate Sensitivity:
The NASDAQ Composite is heavily influenced by changes in interest rates due to its reliance on growth-oriented tech companies. Typically, technology stocks thrive in a low-interest-rate environment as their future earnings become more attractive. However, with the U.S. Federal Reserve poised to cut interest rates in its next meeting, the market is eagerly anticipating how significant these cuts will be.
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, there is now a 67% chance of a larger-than-expected 50 basis point cut. This possibility has drawn investor attention back to tech stocks, which are expected to benefit from reduced borrowing costs. A large rate cut could fuel another surge in technology stocks, but the sector has recently faced headwinds from profit-taking and sector rotation into financial and energy stocks.
2. AI and Semiconductor Influence:
The Artificial Intelligence (AI) boom has been a key driver of NASDAQ’s gains in 2023. Notably, Nvidia, a leading player in AI-related hardware, has seen its stock rise nearly 136% this year, while Meta, which has developed its own AI model, has gained about 51%. The strong performance of these companies underscores the central role AI plays in bolstering the NASDAQ.
Yet, the tech sector is not without challenges. Nvidia, despite being a linchpin of the AI movement, fell 1.95% on Monday, with broader semiconductor stocks also declining. The VanEck Semiconductor ETF, which tracks chipmakers, dropped by 1.31%. This indicates that while AI remains a powerful force, the sector’s performance is susceptible to short-term volatility and broader market conditions.
3. Global Factors:
International developments have also played a role in the NASDAQ’s performance. For example, Japan's Nikkei 225 fell by 1.03% as the yen strengthened against the U.S. dollar, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index rose 1.15%, signaling mixed sentiment in the Asia-Pacific markets. These fluctuations impact U.S. tech stocks, as many are global companies with exposure to international markets.
The strengthening Japanese yen has been particularly significant as it can affect U.S. exports, including high-tech products, reducing profitability for tech giants that rely on global sales. The Bank of Japan’s upcoming policy decisions in October and December could further influence currency fluctuations and global tech performance.
Technical Analysis
From a technical perspective, the NASDAQ Composite remains in a precarious position. As of this writing, the index is down by 0.47%, and the technical indicators offer a mixed picture of where it could be headed.
1. RSI Momentum:
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for the NASDAQ currently stands at 55.48. This suggests that the index has room for further upward movement, but is hovering in a neutral range. The RSI hasn’t entered the overbought zone, indicating that while the index has potential for growth, it could face resistance as it approaches key levels.
2. Trend Channel and Support Levels:
The NASDAQ Composite has been trading within a rising trend channel since the fourth quarter of 2023. The index’s ability to maintain its position within this channel is crucial for its continued growth. The 16,000 pivot level serves as a significant support point. A breakdown below this level could catalyze a bearish move, leading to a potential reversal of the recent gains.
Investors and traders are keenly awaiting guidance from U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, whose upcoming speech could provide critical insights into the Fed’s policy outlook. Any hawkish comments or signs of hesitancy in cutting rates may weigh heavily on the NASDAQ, especially given its reliance on lower borrowing costs.
3. Sector Rotation and Divergence:
One notable observation is the sectoral shift from technology stocks into other parts of the market. On Monday, financial and energy stocks outperformed, with both sectors rising by over 1%. This divergence reflects the broader trend of investors reallocating capital in anticipation of lower rates. Financial stocks, in particular, have been beneficiaries of this rotation, as hedge funds made their largest purchases of financials since June 2023, according to Goldman Sachs.
Outlook and Conclusion
In summary, the NASDAQ Composite is at a crossroads, with fundamental and technical forces pulling in different directions. On the one hand, the prospect of significant interest rate cuts could revive enthusiasm for tech stocks, while on the other, the index’s technical indicators suggest caution, especially if it breaks below the critical 16,000 support level.
For investors, the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting will be pivotal. If the central bank delivers a larger-than-expected rate cut, the NASDAQ could rally, with AI and tech stocks leading the charge. However, any disappointment from the Fed could trigger further sector rotation, pushing investors toward less volatile sectors like financials and energy.
As always, in periods of uncertainty, it’s essential to stay vigilant and monitor both market fundamentals and technical indicators to navigate the path ahead. The NASDAQ’s next move will depend not only on economic data and Fed policy but also on the evolving trends in AI and global markets.
Elliott Wave View on Nasdaq (NQ) Calling the Next Bullish Leg upShort term Elliott Wave view on Nasdaq (NQ) shows that rally from 8.5.2024 low is unfolding as a 5 waves impulse. Up from 8.5.2024 low, wave (1) ended at 20025.25. Pullback in wave (2) ended at 18338.45 with internal subdivision as a double three Elliott Wave structure. Down from wave (1), wave W ended at 19140.25 and wave X ended at 19693.50. Wave Y lower unfolded as another double three in lesser degree. Down from wave X, wave ((w)) ended at 18825.75 and wave ((x)) ended at 19150.50. Wave ((y)) lower ended at 18338.45 which completed wave Y of (2) in higher degree.
The Index has turned higher in wave (3) with internal subdivision as a 5 waves impulse. Up from wave (2), wave ((i)) ended at 18927.5 and pullback in wave ((ii)) ended at 18547. Wave ((iii)) higher ended at 19813.50 and pullback in wave ((iv)) ended at 19529. Near term, expect Index to extend higher to end wave ((v)) and this should complete wave 1 in higher degree. Afterwards, it should pullback in wave 2 to correct cycle from 9.7.2024 low in 3, 7, 11 swing before it resumes higher.
NASDAQ The index is well supported to hit 25k by mid 2025.Last week (September 09, see chart below), we gave a strong buy signal on Nasdaq (NDX) right as the price was testing the 1D MA200, a strong Support on its 2-year Channel Up:
The index duly delivered and we've completed 5 straight green days already. Not only that but the 1D candle closing above the 1D MA50, practically confirmed the bullish extension into this week.
The current week however isn't just a typical one, as we anticipate the Fed Rate Decision on Wednesday and even though the expectations are fixed on at least a 0.25% cut, the volatility is expected to be high.
As a result, to filter out this short-term noise, we will resort today to the wider 1W time-frame, which helps keeping a more accurate long-term perspective. In fact it was the same chart we published 6 months ago (March 18, see chart below), which very accurately laid out the Support that you needed to calmly buy on the long-term, which as you can see, it has been a recurring signal since 2010:
Every time the price broke above a Resistance, it was the ultimate buy entry if re-tested later as a Support. That happened in mid April and that's what happened last week as well.
In fact, the index made a strong rejection on the 1.5 Channel Fibonacci level and then tested and held the 1W MA50, confirming the emergence of a Channel Up (orange) similar to June 2020 - November 2021. The 1W RSI similarities between the two fractals are also further evidence of this.
As a result, we expect Nasdaq to reach as high as 25000 by mid 2025 (a little lower than our previous 6-month estimate but still good enough to be an excellent buy opportunity even now).
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