Apple's Probabilities since 09-21 W/ RSI of RSI divergence 94% !94% Probability we shall go down between 35%- 4%
25% Zero days
35% 32 Days
4.37% 6 Days
13% Zero Days
20% 8 Days
5.55% Zero Days
9 % 23 Days
9% Zero Days
***23% bullish move
7% 7 Days
20% 10 Days
25% 3 Days
5.23% Zero days
12% Zero days
6% Zero days
26% Zero days
11% Zero days
12% Zero days
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NASDAQ 100 CFD
SPX. The Certainty Trap ‘Never’ &‘always’ have no place in MKTS!Just passing this cool info written by a guy called Ben Carlson.
- Ben discusses the differences between probability and certainty:
"There are two arguments I see on a regular basis that show up as a result of data overload:
…because that’s never happened before.
…because that’s what’s always happened before.
-The problem with this line of thinking is that it can lead investors to fall into what I like to call the certainty trap. It’s this all-or-nothing line of thinking that causes so many to constantly attach extremes to every single market move or data point they see. The beginning of the recovery or the end of the world is always right around the corner. The assumption is that we’re always either at a top or a bottom when most of the time the markets are probably somewhere in the middle."
-The reason the investing certainty trap is so easy to fall for is because historical data can feel so safe and reassuring. Look here, my data says that this has never (always) happened in the past. Surely this trend will continue. I’ll just sit here and wait for my profits to start rolling in.
-‘Never’ and ‘always’ have no place in the markets because no one really knows what’s going to happen next. ‘Most of the time’ is a much more reasonable goal, because nothing works forever and always in the markets. If it did everyone would simply invest that way. I think a much more levelheaded approach is to follow the Jason Zweig 10 word investment philosophy:
-Anything is possible, and the unexpected is inevitable. Proceed accordingly.
NASDAQ going neutral for a while, remains under Resistance.News are not the best for Nasdaq (NDX), at least on the short-term, as it got rejected a little over the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) and below the January 05 Lower Highs trend-line (Bear Cycle Resistance) and the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). This marks the end of our buying trade as we called it on our previous post (January 04):
Right now we see, at best a repeat of the November 15 rejection, which turned the index sideways for a month. As long as the Support Zone holds, we will be buying the dip short-term. Below 10500, we will sell and target the -0.118 Fibonacci extension at 10100.
On the bright side, the 1D MACD shows that we are close to completing a bottom process similar to October 13. Still, we will only get long-term bullish above 12500 and the 0.618 Fibonacci, despite the fact that the 1D MA200 is the obvious long-term Resistance, unbroken since April 05. The reason is that with the Resistance Zone above it, we consider the Triangle area within the 0.618 Fib and the Bear Cycle's Lower Highs trend-line, a 'No-trade Zone'.
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Nasdaq (NDX) Monthly Pivots suggest time to invest is nighTLDR: If you want to invest long term buy the dip the time is upon you. I think we bounce off the upward slopping trendline but if we don't I just consider it time to Dollar Cost Average. There may be lower prices but the time to start seriously looking is here.
Introduction
I am not a big pivot trader but during times of relative quiet in the market I experiment with more indicators to see what insights I can get. I am predominately a crypto trader and a bit stuffy of a stuffy investor when it comes to my equities. My retirement plan has some 40 options and I basically just by indices.
The history on QQQ is pretty short compared to DJI or SPX but it the big boy in town. It has been either topping or in a downtrend for about a year depending on how you measure it. Very if one were to zoom in you would see price has bounced off S2 very perfectly.
For me, this is a win-win time to buy. If price bounces like I expect I did a great job buying this pull back. If not then I have found a decent place to buy on the downtrend. When the pivots next print I will buy extra at S1 and S2 again.
This potential stability for me is important because it helps provide a more stable macro environment for my crypto trades.
And of course, my linked ideas show my wider thinking on the bullishness in the market.
SPX, Now 13th Oct low is critical !Taking out 3806.91 minor high puts 13th Oct low (3491.58) in a critical position.
As explained in my previous publications, there was a chance for best case scenario and market bounce at 0.5 Retracement of rally after pandemic low and Bulls, Bottom fisher and Dip Buyers took the chance however, is this best case scenario going to happen? Bulls should pray for market to sustain last created low !
I showed two different yet possible scenarios on the chart:
On the left side of the chart ,shown in green, we have our best case scenario which calls for completion of an ABC form of correction. With yesterday's taking out 3806.91 minor high we have now a proof for termination of last down going wave which is labeled as wave C. If this is going to happen , SPX will see unbelievable upside targets. The key for this scenario is 3491.58 low. As far as index is above this low, market is safe for bulls.
On the right side of the chart, shown in red, we have our terrifying scenario which suggests painful targets for SPX. I am sure that you can see powerful resistances in this chart. Index is below 50,100 and 200 days moving average and also below major down trend line. I intentionally excluded these resistances from best case scenario chart to show how optimism can make us ignore what we should see. Is market able to break all these powerful resistances and continue it's way up to new ATH and unbelievable targets? If not, Market will see very unpleasant, terrifying painful targets.
Macroeconomics, War and energy crisis, Inflation and FED's series of rate hikes do not support best case scenario but market is crazy sometimes. For me and to be in safe side, breaking out mentioned resistances is necessary to be sure about market up trend.
Please keep this golden statement in mind :
" Sometimes best thing to do in market is doing nothing "
Good Luck.
NQ UpdateRSI hit overbought, looks like it pulled back.
ECB and Fed speakers tomorrow. Not sure what the pump is all about this morning since I'm not trading, but I might take a stab at some put options overnight.
I don't have much faith in the central banks actually doing their jobs correctly, so going light. Either way, I wouldn;t hold any long positions tonight.
17 Jan US pre-opening (M30)17 Jan US pre-opening (M30, Intraday,)
Weakening of demand observed, with possibility
of short on test of recent high
Plan:
1) If channel's supply line becomes resistance,
e.g, price close below channel supply line, and
is resisted, look for short.
2) If price close above channel, and price shows
support, look for long.
Feels like the market is coiled up like a spring Bulls take a position, get trapped; bears jump in and get trapped as well. A coil.
Stops are placed. As they should.
If the coil breaks out, half the crowd will quickly be wrong and bail.
The market will eventually pick a way, discover price. Up down, cant do sideways forever.
Crypto is rising, cpi is slowing. gasoline is cheaper.
Cnn sentiment index is at 'greed".
Percentage of stocks above moving averages is elevated. Vix is in downtrend and low end of range.
Valuation is still above historical 15 PE and shiller PE is near 29.
Many stocks are at 20 plus PEs, especially large caps, despite analyst show slower growth.
old trader sayings:
"from failed moves come fast moves"
"stocks move in the direction that hurts the most people"
"stocks always go up"
"buy high and sell higher"
Sound financial guidance recommends you only invest money you wont need for 5 years or more.
Good luck and dont risk money you can't afford to lose.
QQQ RTY IWM
NQ1! NAS100 NASDAQ 2023 JAN 15
NQ1! NAS100 NASDAQ 2023 JAN 15
Did 2 trades last 2 weeks based on Scenario1 from 01 Jan's Analysis.
Intraday Test and Accept Long at 10787, TP200pts, and continuation
long on retracement on Tue 10 Jan
No demand on uptrend on all 3 TF analysis, minor weakness but
no trend changing weakness yet. Will look for long on retracement.
Possible scenarios:
1) Long if accepted at 11385
2) Short if rejected between 12400 - 11908.50
3) Breakout of rotation = possible long if price continues to trade
at upper boundary of rotation zone.
4) If Rotation happens between 12400 - 11908, trade at boundary
of range.
Volume Analysis:
Weekly = Low vol up bar close at high = No Demand
Daily: Low vol up bar close toward high = No Demand
H4 = Low vol up bar close off high = No Demand
Price reaction levels:
Short on Test and Reject | Long on Test and Accept
12987 12400 - 11908
11729 11385 10710
Remember to Like and Follow if you find this useful.
Have a profitable trading week ahead.
$VIX close to lower end of rangePre-market we're looking for RED
Sold lil more #stocks after posted we did some selling yesterday (posted elswhere)
Have💵& tons of leverage (only use on occasion)
$NDX should open around yellow line 11270s
$DJI support around 33800s
$VIX clobbered, due for bounce
Have a great trading day!!!
Nasdaq Analysis 12.01.2023Hello Traders,
welcome to this free and educational analysis.
I am going to explain where I think this asset is going to go over the next few days and weeks and where I would look for trading opportunities.
If you have any questions or suggestions which asset I should analyse tomorrow, please leave a comment below.
I will personally reply to every single comment!
If you enjoyed this analysis, I would definitely appreciate it, if you smash that like button and maybe consider following my channel.
Thank you for watching and I will see you tomorrow!
You can also check out my previous analysis of this asset:
Will Powell's speech spark another rally or spook the market?In our previous post on the Nasdaq index, we stated that the bullish breakout above the descending channel would bolster the bullish odds in the short term. Furthermore, we said that in such a scenario, we would closely observe volume and the ability of SMAs to halt the price rise. Interestingly, after the breakout, NQ1! jumped approximately 3.8% and stopped slightly below the 50-day SMA before returning below the 20-day SMA (falling within the scope of natural retracements after the price deviates too far from a moving average). At the same time, the volume picked up, reflecting an increase in selling pressure.
Despite this bullish development, we remain bearish on the index, which follows what we stated before about the breakout not impacting the primary bearish trend. Therefore, today, we will pay close attention to Jerome Powell’s speech. We expect him to reiterate that the FED will stay committed to hiking rates throughout 2023 and achieving its goals over time. Depending on Jerome Powell’s tone, market participants might find signs of a pivot in his words, potentially sparking more upside in the short term. Contrarily, an overly hawkish tone might spook the market into selling. Therefore, we raise a word of caution over a potential increase in volatility.
Expected dates of upcoming earnings for FAANG stocks in 2023:
Netflix - January 17th
Alphabet - January 31st
Meta Platforms - February 1st
Apple - February 2nd
Amazon - February 2nd
Illustration 1.01
The picture above shows the daily chart of NQ1!. The yellow arrow indicates the breakout above the upper bound of the descending channel.
Technical analysis
Daily time frame = Slightly bullish
Weekly time frame = Neutral
Illustration 1.02
Illustration 1.02 shows the daily chart of NQ1!. The yellow arrow indicates the retracement to 20-day SMA and 50-day SMA. To support a bearish case, we want to see the price stay below the 50-day SMA. Additionally, (ideally) we want to see a further increase in volume accompanying a price decline, followed by the breakout's invalidation.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
QQQ Nasdaq 100 ETF Santa Rally U.S. stocks tend to rise during the Santa Claus rally period.
The Santa Rally is considered the last five trading sessions of the year and first two of the new year.
Since 1950, the S&P 500 has traded higher 78% of the time during the Santa rally period for an average gain of 1.3%.
My price target for QQQ Nasdaq 100 ETF is $273.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
$NDX shows technical strengthening on 4HREncouraging for $NDX
Start top left, left > right, then bottom left
Can u c cup forming? 30Min shows it best
#NDX 4Hr Bullish crossover, strengthens daily
Daily, struggling here, thick yellow line on last chart
$DJI Inverse Head Shoulder still in play
$QQQ $VXN $TQQQ $SQQQ
$ILMN gapped down provided nice opportunity$ILMN gapped down
Jan 20 190 P were selling for $7.3+ on gap down
Risk reward worth, took stab
#stocks #options
-
Up 50% in a few minutes
But will hold $ILMN Puts, believe it goes higher
Gap @ 204
On the chance we get put, doubt it, but in the chance, it's in a channel 180 - 240
-
Daily in a nice channel
$TSLA 1Hr forming Inverse Head & Shoulder - Short term bottom?$TSLA
1Hr & 4Hr forming Inverse Head & Shoulder
COULD be short term bottom, waiting
-
That was original post
-
Lil bit later
-
$TSLA took another $3 hit
Sold $115 puts, chance we get PUT but it's okay
Risk Reward is good here
#stocks #ElonMusk
@elonmusk
#TSLA #TESLA
Nasdaq to find support at previous highs?NASDAQ - Intraday - We look to Buy at 10965 (stop at 10865)
Majority of the initial daily gains being overturned.
An overnight negative theme in Equities has led to a lower open this morning.
Economic figures could adversley affect the short term technical picture.
Bespoke support is located at 10965.
Although the anticipated move higher is corrective, it does offer ample risk/reward today.
Our profit targets will be 11235 and 11310
Resistance: 11235 / 11270 / 11309
Support: 11000 / 10966 / 10904
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Signal Centre’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Signal Centre.
🚘 Yes! A Bounce But, How Far Up Can It Go, Tesla?Yes... A bounce but, will it continue higher?
And if yes, by how much?
The only thing we can do is to read the chart and offer our perspective based on the information coming from it and our experience.
The peak price was hit 4-November 2021 at 414.5.
A low was hit 7-January 2023 at 101.81.
That's a drop of 75.44% (-75.44%).
Let's get started...
Make sure to Boost 🚀👍 to show your support!
The first thing to notice when looking at the TSLA stock in answer to our question is the strong increase in trading volume.
As mid-December came in, volume started to increase strongly.
Putting us in alert, as change signals change.
A low was hit late December then another two lower lows early January but pretty much at the same level... Only few points lower than the December low. This signals that the bears are losing strength.
As the volume continues to increase, the RSI reaches oversold and now TSLA is moving above EMA10 on the daily timeframe...
There were also several gaps left open on the way down and a strong support level turned resistance that needs to be tested/confirmed.
After a strong impulse, it is normal to have a corrective wave.
In this scenario we have a bearish impulsive and the corrective wave move to the upside.
Still, we do not predict nor guess what will happen next...
As traders, we use this information to trade.
Here goes the logic/example:
1) Buy and hold with a bullish bias...
2) If prices move and close daily below 100, we close the buy at a loss (very, very low risk).
3) If there is a bullish follow up, we sell on target (at resistance) on the way up... WIN!
That's it.
Tesla went down strong and now the bias/potential is switching and we are aiming up.
It is hard for me to say how far up it will go, the macro-economic environment might put some pressure on this stock but we can always track it step by step... It is very easy to read the chart.
Namaste.
$NDX means risk coming to playCopy post & continuation from posts not done here
Letting trades sit for moment
Called #risk coming, $NDX vs $DJI
#NDX almost 4x the performance today
NOT SAYING it's "over" but risk reward = GREAT #Bullish
For Friday volume was GOOD
Overall buying coming in last few days
Still like value but have lots of $TQQQ
#stocks
Hard to post all we write here, sorry!