NASDAQ Slow and steady rise within a 3-month pattern.Nasdaq (NDX) is simply extending the new Bullish Leg of the now almost 3-month (since April 19) Channel Up (blue) pattern. Supported by the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line), it should stay this way until the next Higher High, which we anticipate to be at 21300 at least.
That will be almost a968% rise, which is the smallest Bullish leg registered on the May 23 Higher High. The other was +10.40%, so there is a high degree of symmetry among the Legs of this Channel Up.
The 4H CCI on each Bullish Leg is also fairly symmetrical and it shows where we cyrrently might be relative to the previous sequences. Note also that the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) has been unbroken since May 06 (more than 2 months), indicating that at the moment is the strongest medium-term Support.
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NASDAQ 100 CFD
NASDAQ Nothing to stop this uptrend. Next stop 21300.Time to update our Nasdaq (NDX) thesis from 2 weeks ago (June 20, see chart below), where we called for a pull-back and then a buy on a 20700 Target:
As you can see we got the short-term correction within the (dotted) Channel Up and the index resumed the long-term uptrend of the 8-month (blue) Channel Up. Supported by both the 4H MA200 (red trend-line) and the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), we expect this uptrend to be extended in a similar way as the January 2024 post 4H MA200 correction rebound.
That sequence completed a +25.78% from the October 2023 bottom, before pulling back near the 4H MA200 again. As a result, we upgrade our Target to 21300, closer to the top of the long-term Channel Up. See also how symmetrical the 1D MACD fractals are between the 2 sequences. We should now be expecting a Bullish Cross, to confirm this Leg's continuation.
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🏯 TOPIX FUTURES: JAPANESE BULL SAMURAI IS STILL ALIVELegendary investor Warren Buffett was on a trip to Tokyo, the capital of Japan, two months earlier in mid-April 2023, and the titans of the country's giant energy and commodity conglomerates were there to make their presentations.
As usual, over glasses of Coca-Cola NYSE:KO - one of Buffett's most famous investments, they walked into Warren Buffett's suite at the luxury Four Seasons hotel and individually told the 92-year-old American investor the same thing: Japanese trading houses are cheap and should accelerate their move beyond commodities.
The support of the Oracle of Omaha is an important vote of confidence in the big five Japanese trading houses - Mitsubishi Corporations TSE:8058 , Mitsui TSE:8031 , Sumitomo TSE:8053 , Itochu TSE:8001 and Marubeni TSE:8002
It's also a broad endorsement of Japan, that is considered to have outlived its heyday 30-35 years ago, as well as considered less relevant than Asian counterparts such as China and India.
But there's one big question: Is Buffett betting on phasing out fossil fuels, the trading house products themselves, or a combination of the two? Or something else, like impact of the weak yen!?
Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway NYSE:BRK.B reported in August 2020 that it had acquired about 5% of the shares of five trading houses, that sent their stocks up and raised their total investment value above $6 billion. When the Covid-19 pandemic dampened demand for goods, it pushed down the value of company stocks, four of which traded below book value.
“They were selling, I thought, at a ridiculous price,” - Buffett said to CNBC in March 2023.
Three years after the Covid-19 pandemic (that is now hardly remembered) Warren Buffett's bets on Japan have nearly tripled to over $17 billion.
But even this Growth does not stop Buffett. Staying in Tokyo this spring, Buffett confirmed intentions to buy more shares, and participate in more big deals.
In addition, Berkshire recently unveiled plans to issue its own yen-denominated bonds, which help hedge against the depreciation of the yen against the US dollar as well as depreciation of Japanese stocks in dollar terms.
The technical main chart is dedicated to futures on the TOPIX index TSE:TOPIX widely known, along with the Nikkei 225 index $TSE:NKY .
The TOPIX index is an important stock market index for the Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSE) in Japan, tracking all the local companies of the TSE Prime-market division.
Buffett's mission to Japan marked, as it easy to find in the technical picture of TOPIX ( TSE:TOPIX ) - a significant moment, as a result of the breakdown of the key long-term resistance, with the prospect of further more than doubling the index TSE:TOPIX and its market value.
NASDAQ Literally nothing to stop this long-term rally.Earlier this month (June 07, see chart below), we explained why we were very bullish long-term on Nasdaq (NDX) using the 1W time-frame:
The price rose from 19000 to 19750 since and there is literally no technical sign of stopping this tremendous rally yet. In fact, today we bring you another approach, this time on the 2M time-frame.
As you can see, since November 2023, the index is past a Bullish Cross on the 2M LMACD. Since the 2008 Housing Crisis, we have witnessed this signal only 3 times. In fact, despite the presence of a relentless 14-year Channel Up, the most recent LMACD Bullish Cross resembles more the first one on November 2009.
Even though the 2022 Inflation Crisis wasn't the same as the 2008 Housing Crisis, it is the strongest we saw since then. The chart clearly shows that 2-year Channel Up (blue)/ Bullish Legs have been the vessels of upward continuation within the 14-year Channel, while at the same time +135% rises have been quite common.
As a result, before the current rally takes a breather, we can expect to see as high as even 24500 (+135% from the November 2022 bottom).
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Nasdaq Slapped- Like u saw yesterday, BTC dipped but the main reason for now is just the global economy being worst.
- Nasdaq Companies made big % lost yesterday - here the main list - www.cnbc.com
- The Covid19 caused a fast dip followed by a mega pump based on stimulus (brrrrr), now the real dip is ongoing.
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Trading Part ( Long Term )
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- Buy 1 : 12,000$
- Rebuy : 10,500$ - 11,000$
TP : before 20,000$
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- This Analyze of course can be faked by a strong money printing (Brrrrrrrrrrrr)
Happy Tr4Ding and St4y Safe !
🍌🍌 SUPERMICRO — AI BANANAS RECOVER FROM THE BEARISH HUGSIt’s hard to believe that only a few short years ago, Super Micro stock was trading for $10 per share. Now that it’s hovering near the $1,000 area.
And Yes, SMCI stocks are still Top #1 over the all S&P500 components with +217% YTD performance in 2024, and +471% 12-months performance.
Supermicro is an American company, a major manufacturer of motherboards, cases, power supplies, cooling systems, SAS controllers, Ethernet and InfiniBand. The company specializes in the production of x86-server platforms and various components for servers, workstations and data storage systems. The headquarters is located in San Jose, USA. Founded in 1993.
Supermicro, Inc., a provider of end-to-end IT solutions for cloud computing, artificial intelligence/machine learning, storage, and 5G/Edge communications, continues to expand its data center portfolio with NVIDIA end-to-end rack cabinet solutions HGX H100 equipped with liquid cooling systems.
Supermicro's advanced liquid cooling technologies help reduce time-to-commissioning, improve performance levels, and reduce data center operating costs while dramatically reducing energy efficiency.
It is estimated that when using Supermicro liquid cooling systems (compared to air-cooled data centers), data centers save up to 40% in terms of power costs. In addition, direct cooling costs can be reduced by up to 86% compared to existing data centers.
In technical terms, SMCI shares are strongly above 26- and 52-weeks SMA, while a classic scenario 'recovering from bearish hugs' is happening right now.
NASDAQ Minor correction expected. Where to buy?Nasdaq (NDX) has almost reached the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the Channel Up pattern that started on the October 26 2023 bottom. The last Higher Low was made on April 19 2024 and ever since, a strong Bullish Leg in the form of a Channel Up (dotted), took the index above both the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and 4H MA200 (red trend-line).
Since the last Bullish Leg topped at around a +20.87% rise, we can assume that the price has entered a rejection zone. The only parameter left to confirm this, is for the 1D MACD to form a Bearish Cross. As you can see the two Bullish Legs are fairly similar so far in their price action.
With the late December 2023 - early January 2024 pull-back bottoming on the 4H MA200 exactly, we are expecting a symmetrical pull-back to that level again, where we will be looking to add more buys and target 20700 (top of the 8-month Channel Up).
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nasdaq look downsatoday in the market. in NQ futures we have a range above a a gap.
we seem to be trading below the mid point of the lower part of the range.
so we are looking for a short.
first entry in 19,842 with stop in red and target in green 19,760 first target and 2 target closing the gap at 19,612.
we seem to be having more selling preasure in the range we are at the moment.
embrace the loss to unlock the green days.
12,000 SPY Prediction by 2028 "Roaring 20s Hello Again"
Start of 1995 the NASDAQ was at 1,578, Start of 2,000 it stood at 8,688 x of 5.505
If we take the bottom of composite 11,073 that takes us to 60,956 and this only the Nasdaq composite
This would put the US stock markets combined over 300-400 Trillion dollars.
The Federal Reserve will be forced to repeat the same policies lowering or holding rates steady to beat both inflation and unemployment, the last thing people are expecting is a parabolic melt up of all major markets. This is why I'm posting proof
We're moving into the age of Bitcoin as a global reserve currency, robotics and Ai.
The USA has started to accept miners logic and Bitcoin economics.
While people waited for the recession, while people waited for the bubble to pop, the reality is it has just started.
I'm surprised majority are still watching this unfold on the side-lines waiting for the
"bubble to pop" but then again when they come back in saying its "not a bubble" I will be defensive.
NASDAQ Short-term pull-back possible. Know when to buy.Nasdaq (NDX) delivered an excellent buy signal last time we looked at it (May 30, see chart below) and is approaching our 19900 Target:
The pace of this rise however has been very strong, certainly stronger than the December 2023, which we used as fractal comparison, and the price already reached the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the 1.5 year Channel Up.
At the same time, it hit the 2.0 Fibonacci extension level from the last Lower High before the break-out, while the 1D RSI reached the 78.00 overbought level. On the past fractal, the short-term correction that followed, bottomed on January 05 2024 on the 1.5 Fib ext.
As a result, we can't dismiss a short-term pull-back now but we will expect it to find Support around 19050 (Fib 1.5). We will use it as a new buy entry and target 20500 (the 2.618 Fibonacci extension) as we expect a new, more aggressive Channel Up to emerge.
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Dow 'Big Yikes' moment as it gravely lags behind BigTech rallyA stock-market rally concentrated on an ever-narrowing cohort of tech stocks is leaving the Dow Jones Industrial Average behind as the Nasdaq Composite (IXIC), Nasdaq-100 hit records, making investors nervous.
The scope of the divergence on Wednesday, with the Nasdaq-100 finishing posting a 1.33% gain versus a 0.09% fall for the Dow DJIA was particularly troubling.
This is quite rare moment as the Dow posted a daily close more than 1.0 percentage points below Nasdaq-100 Index and more than 0.9% below S&P500 Index.
That is a 'Big Yikes' moment.
It's largely a statement on very bad breadth of the market, as we're incredibly reliant on just a very small number of names.
The rally more recently, he noted, has been driven largely by longtime AI favorite Nvidia Corp. (NVDA), and Apple Inc. (AAPL), which has surged nearly 9% this week as it outlined its own plans to add AI to its products.
The Super concentration is manifested in any number of breadth statistics, which track how many stocks in an index are participating in a move, including the percentage of stocks at 52-week highs versus 52-week lows and the percentage above their 200-day moving average.
For example, just one component of SP500 Index - that is Nvidia.. had accounted for 35% of the increase in the S&P 500's market cap in 2024.
Such a high concentration implies that if NVIDIA continues to rise, then things are fine and dandy.
But if it starts to decline, then the market will be hit hard.
Overall, presidential-election years tend to be strong ones for the market, particularly in the fourth quarter. And years that begin strong also tend to hold up.
But everything could end, earlier or later.
The main chart is the ratio between Nasdaq-100 (NDX) and Dow Jones (DJI) Indices. That indicates that June quarter posting an extremely new historical high between these two Major indices, first time over the past 25 years.
A very historical times we live.
NASDAQ will continue to rise on this pattern repetition.Nasdaq (NDX) has been trading within a (blue) Channel Up since basically the market bottom of the inflation crisis in October 2022. On the bigger picture, this is the technical Bullish Leg of the 14-year Channel Up and is supported by the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) since March 13 2023.
Based on the 1W RSI pattern, we have previously seen such Bullish Leg within the long-term Channel Up supported by the 1W MA50, back on the February 08 2016 bottom. As you can see on this 1W chart, both Bullish Legs (Channel Up patterns) made their first pull-back on the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level. In June 2018, the previous fractal reached the 5.0 Fibonacci extension and shortly after, the index corrected aggressively back at the bottom of the 14-year Channel Up.
We expect Nasdaq to hit again the 5.0 Fib ext sooner or later but most likely before the year is over. This gives us a medium-term Target of 22000.
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NASDAQ: Perfect pullback execution. Bullish reversal next week.Nasdaq delivered the expected pullback which was validated when it crossed under the 4H MA50. Today it almost reached the 1D MA50, which is also where the 4H MA200 sits, turned momentarily bearish on the 1D technical outlook (now neutral/ RSI = 47.140, MACD = 151.030, ADX = 59.182) and the 1D RSI achieved symmetry with the December 6th 2023 Low. We still expect the 1.5 Fibonacci extension to get reached before the next pullback (TP = 19,250).
See how our prior idea has worked out:
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NASDAQ Another 2 weeks of consolidation possibleNasdaq (NDX) made the bullish break-out that we largely expected as described on our previous idea (May 15, see chart below) and almost hit our 19100 Target:
Right now we see a short-term pull-back, which based on the November - December 2023 fractal (green ellipse), should be at worst a 2 week consolidation. The 1D RSI also shows that symmetrically we should be at a point similar to December 06 2023.
That fractal then rose for a Higher High on the 2.236 Fibonacci extension. As a result, our medium-term Target is now set at 19900 (just under the 2.236 Fib and top of the 1.5 year Channel Up).
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NASDAQ, S&P 500 Trying to Rebound From Q2 LowsOn Wednesday, volatility surged back into the market, with the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) spiking 9% after hitting nearly three-year lows last week. The yield on the 30-year Treasury note, a crucial benchmark for mortgage rates nationwide, soared to 4.74%, rising more than 15 basis points over two sessions and nearing its highest close since May 2. As yields climbed, bond prices dropped, with the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF falling 1.3%. Investors fear that the Fed will not cut interest rates more than once by the end of the year and not before November, as suggested by current Fed futures pricing.
All major U.S. equity indices and all eleven sectors traded in the red, with the U.S. dollar effectively playing its safe haven role. The Invesco DB USD Index Bullish Fund ETF rose 0.5%, marking its strongest day in a month. Rising yields and a stronger dollar pressured commodities, with gold prices down 1%, oil down 1.3%, and natural gas down 5%.
Semiconductor giant NVIDIA Corporation has been surging in value and could soon be the most valuable company in the world. The strong gains for Nvidia and other Magnificent 7 stocks have helped boost several major stock indexes, but also show significant weighting for a small basket of stocks. The top five holdings in the S&P 500, which is tracked by the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust, are Microsoft, Nvidia, Apple, and Amazon.com Inc., which are all Magnificent 7 stocks.
Analysts predict Nvidia shares will trade higher in the coming months with strong optimism for new products and continued artificial intelligence growth opportunities. However, the concern for investors could be the high weighting the seven companies have on a composite index that is supposed to represent the overall U.S. stock market. With 500 stocks represented in the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust, the fact that the top seven companies make up 31%, means that 493 stocks make up around 69% of the weighting.
While FED depends on Data NVDA stocks clearly predict Zero RatesNvidia reported another blowout earnings report in its first-quarter results, and its stock is soaring to record highs above $1,000 per share on Thursday.
The company reported revenue and profit that surpassed analyst estimates and offered second-quarter revenue guidance that was well ahead of Wall Street's expectations. On top of that, the company announced a 10-for-1 stock split and increased its quarterly dividend by 150% to $0.10 per share.
Wall Street analysts were impressed by the results, with a slew of price target increases hitting the tape this Thursday morning.
Goldman Sachs (GS): "New products to drive sustained growth in Data Center"
⚡ Analysts at Goldman Sachs pointed out that the company delivered accelerated year-over-year revenue growth, with its Data Center business growing revenue at 427%.
JP Morgan (JPM): "Demand continues to outstrip supply into CY25".
⚡ Analysts at JPMorgan said they were impressed that Nvidia is seeing more and more industries participate in the demand for its H100 AI chips.
Bank of America (BA): "Now see $50+ EPS power in two years".
⚡ Analysts at Bank of America said Nvidia's first-quarter earnings report suggests a smooth transition to the company's next-generation Blackwell chips, and that's going to lead to massive revenue gains.
Wedbush: "AI revolution just getting started"
⚡ Analysts at Wedbush said the "AI gold rush" is just getting started as a "tidal wave" of spending on AI chips hits the entire tech sector.
Nonetheless, this story is a little bit another, rather than Goldilocks tales.
With more than 25 years of NVDIA shares trading, and an amazing 237000 % profit since NVDA IPO inception in January, 1999, in nowadays it costs approximately as low as 0.20x to S&P500 stock index (SPX equal appr. to 5 (five) NVDA shares in this time).
The main technical graph is a differentials exposure between 5 NVDA shares and SP500 index.
Well.. there're you see 3 clear cases of NVDA shares advantage over the past 25 years:
• Early 2000's when US Interest Rates turned Zero.
• 2007-09 when US Interest Rates again turned Zero.
• Early 2020's when US Interest Rates once again turned Zero.
While FED officials depends on Data, maybe (just maybe) NVDA stocks indeed clearly predict deflationary winds and US Interest Rates at Zero again.
Thanks for happy reading.
😎 Cheers, Pandorra
Buckle Up! Nasdaq Soar on Nvidia's AI Powerhouse ForecastThis analysis examines the potential for continued growth in the Nasdaq-100, fueled by Nvidia's positive earnings outlook. The analysis explores the following key points:
* Nvidia's Strong Earnings Projection: Nvidia, a leading player in the artificial intelligence (AI) sector, recently released a robust quarterly forecast, boosting investor confidence in the technology sector and potentially propelling the Nasdaq-100 to record highs.
* Market Volatility Expected: The analysis acknowledges the potential for significant price fluctuations following Nvidia's earnings release, as options markets anticipate an 8% move for the stock. This volatility could have a ripple effect on the broader "AI Revolution" trade, which has become a dominant force in the stock market.
* Growth Stocks to Consider: The analysis identifies three high-growth stocks with the potential to outperform the Nasdaq-100: Alphabet, Deere & Company, and AeroVironment. Each company is discussed in the context of its specific growth drivers.
* AI and Technology Driving Growth: The analysis concludes by reiterating the significant role that AI and technology advancements play in the Nasdaq-100's overall performance. The ongoing innovation by key players like Nvidia, coupled with the positive outlook for companies like Alphabet, Deere, and AeroVironment, positions the Nasdaq-100 for continued growth.
SPX STORYAs you can see, the S&P 500 index closed at a higher price on March 2nd, 2008 than it did on August 1st, 1996. However, it closed at a lower price on March 1st, 2000 than it did on March 2nd, 2008. This means that if you had bought the S&P 500 index on August 1st, 1996, you could have bought it again on March 2nd, 2008 for slightly cheaper. However, if you had bought it on March 1st, 2000, you would have had to wait until February 2013 to see a new market high.
The S&P 500 index has seen a strong upward price movement since breaking out of a 13-year consolidation period in February 2013. The index made a new post dot-com high in February 2013, and then went on to make an all-time high of 4818 in January 2022. As of June 2023, the index is trading at 4282.
I understand that many people believe the S&P 500 index is in a bubble and that we are just experiencing a bear market rally. However, it is important to consider all possibilities, as the market can be humbling. Investors not too long ago lived through a period of over a decade where they saw no new market highs, but were able to buy stocks at a lower price after 13 years.