NASDAQ holding the 1 month patternNasdaq (NDX) is pull-back following Friday's high. This is nothing more than a technical 1-month pattern which, supported by the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) is posting rises around +6% and pull-backs around -3.5%.
The 4H MA50 is currently a little over 11800 and a -3.80% pull-back (max on the pattern) can make exact contact with it tomorrow. With the Higher Lows trend-line just below it, we are willing to buy there and aim at a +5.85% rise at 12530.
The 4H RSI Buy Zone can offer additional insight on the buy entry. A break and closing below the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line), would be a trend change and sell signal towards 10800.
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NASDAQ 100 CFD
NQ1! NAS100 NASDAQ 2023 JAN 28
NQ1! NAS100 NASDAQ 2023 JAN 28
Result for week of 23 Jan analysis yielded Intraday 100pts on 25 Jan
and 450pts for levels/position trade.
Price is now at the Rotational Resistance area.
Higher TF did not display trend changing weakness.
H4 is showing a potential weakness for long on retracement
opportunity / temporary short opportunity.
Possible scenarios:
1) Short if rejected between 12400 - 12140 / 11727
2) Breakout of rotation = possible long if price continues to trade
at upper boundary of rotation zone.
Volume Analysis:
Weekly = Ave vol up bar close off high = Minor weakness
Daily: Ave vol up bar close off = Minor weakness
H4 = Ave vol down bar (UT) S>D = Possible Trend Change
Price reaction levels:
Short on Test and Reject | Long on Test and Accept
12987 12400 - 12140 11603
10890 10710 10484
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NQ1! NAS100 NASDAQ 2023 JAN 25 US Pre-Market Analysis
Possible Long on retracement
per Scenario 2 as price is testing
previous rotation area
Possible session Scenario
Long If support returns at
a) 11729 or
b) Channel support
Short if
c) Price breaks through grey rotation area,
returns to test and is rejected
Seek for Liquidity of Upper Levels?after late massive run past friday, nasdaq 100 is seeking for liquidity of upper levels.
i think 11817 make calm this indice in lower timeframe. then the gray box will be the first target of daily timeframe.
the bearish weekly orderblock has got a strong resistance which is after 3 hit we saw deep retracment.
ultimately, if price unable to pass the bearish weekly orderblock. we will see new lower low for seeking liquidity...
NQ1! NAS100 NASDAQ 2023 JAN 23
NQ1! NAS100 NASDAQ 2023 JAN 23
WISHING CHINESE FRIENDS A PROPEROUS YEAR OF THE RABBIT!
Did you do Scenario1 11385 long? Market gave at least 200pts.
Possible scenarios:
1) Short if rejected between 12400 - 12140 / 11727
2) Continuation long on retracement if price retraces on low volume
or supported by channel
3) Breakout of rotation = possible long if price continues to trade
at upper boundary of rotation zone.
Volume Analysis:
Weekly = Low vol up bar close off high = No Demand
Daily: Ave vol up bar = No demand
H4 = High vol up bar close toward high = No Demand
Price reaction levels:
Short on Test and Reject | Long on Test and Accept
12987 12400 - 11908
11729 11385 10710
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Have a profitable trading week ahead.
Collapse Of The US Economy JAPAN - AMERICA | Part OneJapan's Real Estate and Stock Market Bubble
In the present day, asset bubbles sometimes are fuelled by overly stimulative monetary policy. Japan's economic bubble of the 1980s is a classic example. The yen's 50% surge in the early 1980s triggered a Japanese recession in 1986, and to counter it, the government ushered in a program of monetary and fiscal stimulus.
These measures worked so well that they fostered unbridled speculation, resulting in Japanese stocks and urban land values tripling between 1985 and 1989.
At the peak of the real estate bubble in 1989, the value of the Imperial Palace grounds in Tokyo was greater than that of real estate in the entire state of California.
The bubble burst in 1991, setting the stage for Japan's subsequent years of price deflation and stagnant economic growth known as the Lost Decade
In the midst of an escalating pandemic, the US government enacted fiscal stimulus of an unprecedented magnitude between March 2020 and March 2021. The multifaceted stimulus acts provided for sizable Economic Impact Payments, better known as “stimulus checks”
these payments occurred in the context of significant growth in retail trading accounts and stock prices, particularly the prices of stocks that retail investors
tend to favor. Surveys suggest that on the order of 10%-15% of the payments may have shortly
found their way into the stock market.
The current US Federal reserve balance sheet (WALCL)
8.5 Trillion Dollars as of 2022
900 Billion Dollars from 2008
M2 (M2SL) Supply
21.4 Trillion as of 2022
7.6 Trillion from 2008
NASDAQ bottomed or fall 20% by March?Here is my chart combining channels, trend lines, and waves.
You can see that the NASDAQ has been fighting to stay inside the blue channel since mid-October, but has been trapped under the black channel. If it is going to hold, then this would be a good place. That would keep the blue channel bull rally intact.
However, this week's rejection off the top of the channel is not a great sign. There is still a good possibility that we still need to complete the wave C of the larger ABC correction before this is over. Right now, Wave C stands at a 0.618 fib extension of Wave A which is pretty small. If it goes lower, then a bounce and support at 0.786 seems logical, which is around the peak before the COVID crash. That could be a good long entry.
I would not rule out something closer to the 1.0 level before we are done. If that does come to be, then that takes us down to the red trend line created off the bottoms of the 2018 and 2020 corrections. That is the 9000 range (could overshoot down to 8700) and would be a great place for a big long entry. Anything lower than that, and, well, lets not think about.
Nasdaq Analysis 19.01.2023Hello Traders,
welcome to this free and educational analysis.
I am going to explain where I think this asset is going to go over the next few days and weeks and where I would look for trading opportunities.
If you have any questions or suggestions which asset I should analyse tomorrow, please leave a comment below.
I will personally reply to every single comment!
If you enjoyed this analysis, I would definitely appreciate it, if you smash that like button and maybe consider following my channel.
Thank you for watching and I will see you tomorrow!
You can also check out my previous analysis of this asset:
17 Jan US pre-opening (M30)17 Jan US pre-opening (M30, Intraday,)
Weakening of demand observed, with possibility
of short on test of recent high
Plan:
1) If channel's supply line becomes resistance,
e.g, price close below channel supply line, and
is resisted, look for short.
2) If price close above channel, and price shows
support, look for long.
NQ1! NAS100 NASDAQ 2023 JAN 15
NQ1! NAS100 NASDAQ 2023 JAN 15
Did 2 trades last 2 weeks based on Scenario1 from 01 Jan's Analysis.
Intraday Test and Accept Long at 10787, TP200pts, and continuation
long on retracement on Tue 10 Jan
No demand on uptrend on all 3 TF analysis, minor weakness but
no trend changing weakness yet. Will look for long on retracement.
Possible scenarios:
1) Long if accepted at 11385
2) Short if rejected between 12400 - 11908.50
3) Breakout of rotation = possible long if price continues to trade
at upper boundary of rotation zone.
4) If Rotation happens between 12400 - 11908, trade at boundary
of range.
Volume Analysis:
Weekly = Low vol up bar close at high = No Demand
Daily: Low vol up bar close toward high = No Demand
H4 = Low vol up bar close off high = No Demand
Price reaction levels:
Short on Test and Reject | Long on Test and Accept
12987 12400 - 11908
11729 11385 10710
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Have a profitable trading week ahead.
Nasdaq Analysis 12.01.2023Hello Traders,
welcome to this free and educational analysis.
I am going to explain where I think this asset is going to go over the next few days and weeks and where I would look for trading opportunities.
If you have any questions or suggestions which asset I should analyse tomorrow, please leave a comment below.
I will personally reply to every single comment!
If you enjoyed this analysis, I would definitely appreciate it, if you smash that like button and maybe consider following my channel.
Thank you for watching and I will see you tomorrow!
You can also check out my previous analysis of this asset:
Will Powell's speech spark another rally or spook the market?In our previous post on the Nasdaq index, we stated that the bullish breakout above the descending channel would bolster the bullish odds in the short term. Furthermore, we said that in such a scenario, we would closely observe volume and the ability of SMAs to halt the price rise. Interestingly, after the breakout, NQ1! jumped approximately 3.8% and stopped slightly below the 50-day SMA before returning below the 20-day SMA (falling within the scope of natural retracements after the price deviates too far from a moving average). At the same time, the volume picked up, reflecting an increase in selling pressure.
Despite this bullish development, we remain bearish on the index, which follows what we stated before about the breakout not impacting the primary bearish trend. Therefore, today, we will pay close attention to Jerome Powell’s speech. We expect him to reiterate that the FED will stay committed to hiking rates throughout 2023 and achieving its goals over time. Depending on Jerome Powell’s tone, market participants might find signs of a pivot in his words, potentially sparking more upside in the short term. Contrarily, an overly hawkish tone might spook the market into selling. Therefore, we raise a word of caution over a potential increase in volatility.
Expected dates of upcoming earnings for FAANG stocks in 2023:
Netflix - January 17th
Alphabet - January 31st
Meta Platforms - February 1st
Apple - February 2nd
Amazon - February 2nd
Illustration 1.01
The picture above shows the daily chart of NQ1!. The yellow arrow indicates the breakout above the upper bound of the descending channel.
Technical analysis
Daily time frame = Slightly bullish
Weekly time frame = Neutral
Illustration 1.02
Illustration 1.02 shows the daily chart of NQ1!. The yellow arrow indicates the retracement to 20-day SMA and 50-day SMA. To support a bearish case, we want to see the price stay below the 50-day SMA. Additionally, (ideally) we want to see a further increase in volume accompanying a price decline, followed by the breakout's invalidation.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
Nasdaq to find support at previous highs?NASDAQ - Intraday - We look to Buy at 10965 (stop at 10865)
Majority of the initial daily gains being overturned.
An overnight negative theme in Equities has led to a lower open this morning.
Economic figures could adversley affect the short term technical picture.
Bespoke support is located at 10965.
Although the anticipated move higher is corrective, it does offer ample risk/reward today.
Our profit targets will be 11235 and 11310
Resistance: 11235 / 11270 / 11309
Support: 11000 / 10966 / 10904
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Signal Centre’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Signal Centre.
The bear market has not endedLast year, NQ1! dropped approximately 34%, entering a bear market territory. In 2023, we hardly expect any significant improvement in the stock market due to the persistence of bearish fundamental factors, including high inflation, the prospect of more interest rate hikes, and a global slowdown. We expect these factors to stay in place throughout the year and weigh heavily on the index. Furthermore, we expect them to lead the U.S. economy deeper into a recession. With that said, we anticipate the bear market to progress from the second stage into the third stage in 2023.
We will seek confirmation of our assessment in the upcoming earnings season and look for corporate underperformance and outlook downgrades. Additionally, we will look for a jump in corporate bankruptcies and a pick-up in unemployment. In accordance with our outlook, we maintain a bearish stance on the index and keep our price target of $10 000 for NQ1 (although we think the index has a high chance of going far below that).
Illustration 1.01
Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of NQ1! and the declining channel we showed a few months ago. Currently, NQ1! trades near its upper bound. If it manages to break above it, it will bolster the bullish case in the short term. However, a failure to do so will be bearish and hint at exhaustion.
Technical analysis
Daily time frame = Neutral
Weekly time frame = Neutral
Illustration 1.02
The image above shows the daily chart of NQ1! and simple support/resistance levels. In addition to that, two moving averages are present, acting as additional resistance levels; in case of an upward correction, we will pay close attention to these SMAs and their ability to halt the price rise.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
NASDAQ Don't look beyond this confirmed signalsNasdaq (NDX) hit last week and is so far holding the top of the 10500 - 10750 Support Zone, that has been in effect ever since the October 13 Bottom. As you see, the index has been under the Bear Market's Lower Highs trend-line since January 05, so essentially for a full year. The last rejection on it (December 13) was also made just below the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) and the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level from the previous (Lower High).
This practically keeps the index trapped and currently neutral. A confirmed buy signal would be a break above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), targeting again the 1 year Lower Highs trend-line, while a confirmed sell signal would be a break below 10500, targeting the -0.118 Fibonacci extension (10110).
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No pivot, no easing, only more rate hikes, and painYesterday, the central bank of the United States raised interest rates by 50 basis points. The FED’s chairman reiterated that the monetary policy is not accommodative enough and laid out a path for more increases, with the projection of interest rates above 5% in 2023. Additionally, Jerome Powell stated the FED would not start thinking about cutting rates until its goal of 2% inflation over time is achieved.
That is nothing new to us, as we dismissed the “pivot narrative” several times in the past months. Indeed, we stressed that the terminal rate would go much higher than initially expected and for much longer than originally thought. Unfortunately, we abandoned our price targets for QQQ one day before the meeting.
Despite that, we continue to be bearish on the stock market and maintain our price target for NQ1! at 10 000$. However, as for the QQQ, we will abstain from setting a new price target after the latest abandonment. We will update our thoughts on a new price target soon.
Illustration 1.01
Illustration 1.01 displays the daily chart of QQQ. Yellow arrows indicate fake breakouts above the resistance. Interestingly, the second breakout occurred similarly (meaning very quickly, driven by algorithms, and short-lived) to the first one, about which we expressed skepticism.
Technical analysis
Daily time frame = Neutral
Weekly time frame = Bearish
Illustration 1.02
For the past month, QQQ constituted a 5% trading range within which it has been moving. We do not expect another breakout to the upside. Contrarily, we expect a breakout below the support level, which will be very bearish.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
Nasdaq January Monthly Volatility Analyis 2023
Nasdaq January Monthly Volatility Analyis 2023
Currently the IV for Nasdaq is at 7.66%, down from 7.8% last month.
From the volatility current percentile we are located on 93th place, and based on this we can expect the monthly candle to make the next aprox movement:
Bullish : 6.55%
Bearish : 8.58%
With this in mind we have currently 80.2% that the market is going to stay within the next channel
TOP Limit: 11987
BOT Limit: 10250
If we are going to take a look into the previous monthly high and low points, currently there is a :
37.5% to hit the previous monthly high
64.4% to hit the previous monthly low
Lastly from the technical analysis point of view, currently ( going from -100 to +100)
Weekly Timeframe : -66.67% of rating moving averages is indicating BEARISH
Monthly Timeframe : -40% of rating moving averages is indicating BEARISH
2023 vision back to ATH???We have amost hit the major support level before xmas, I really do think that the end of the bears are coming and the bull run is about to takeover 2023 and get things back to normal. Who knows we shall see in the coming week how the market plays out. Personally I am long for now.
Nasdaq Long Term InvestmentNasdaq is in an open bullish channel over the next 5 and 10 years. As long as the price stays above the middle line of the channel, the positive outlook continues, but below the middle line means that the index has become too cheap. If it goes above the upper line, it indicates the overbought state of the index.
NQ1! NAS100 NASDAQ 2023 JAN 01
NQ1! NAS100 NASDAQ 2023 JAN 01
Welcome to 2023! Have an abundant and successful year!
Possible scenarios:
1) Rotation zone 12140 - 10710: Trades can be executed at boundary of range.
Although not expected to happen, still keeping the breakdown / breakout scenario for future reference:
2) Breakdown scenario if redistribution schematic is fulfilled
= Short on test of breakdown of 10890 / 10485
3) Breakout of rotation = possible long if price continues to trade
at upper boundary of rotation zone.
Weekly = Low vol down bar close off low = No Supply
H4 = Ave vol up bar close toward high = minor demand
Price reaction levels:
Short on Test and Reject | Long on Test and Accept
12987 12140 11455
10710 10485 10000
9748
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Have a profitable trading week ahead.