Nasdaq 100 - Price target for QQQ at 290 USD, 280 USDOn 11th August 2022, we stated the market was at its peak and due to reverse. Since then, the market has fallen more than 10% and reached our price target for QQQ. Furthermore, since fundamental and technical factors have not changed, we have no reason to change our bearish view. Accordingly, we maintain the price target for NQ1! at 11 000 USD. Additionally, we would like to set new price targets for QQQ at 290 USD and 280 USD. We sound a strong warning of impending acceleration in the selloff.
Illustration 1.01
Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of QQQ, which is down more than 10% from its peak on 16th August 2022.
Technical analysis - daily time frame
RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+, and DM- are all bearish. Overall, the daily time frame is bearish.
Technical analysis - weekly time frame
RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+, and DM- are all bearish. Overall, the weekly time frame is bearish.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
NASDAQ 100 CFD
Europe CPI Priced In-GBP Touches 1.14 First Time Since 1985
Today Europe will be releasing economic data for the report CPI (YoY) (Aug) Forecast: 9.1% Previous: 9.1%. A surprise of a lower value can be weaker for the euro while a higher value can be bullish for the euro indicating higher inflation. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) tracks the fluctuation in the price of goods and services from the aspect of the average consumer. It is furthermore a strong way to view fluctuation in purchasing trends and inflation.
It seems that the euro was due for a continued weekly uprise but next week Powell is looking to raise rates and the market is expecting a 75 or even 100 basis point increase and this can be further bearish for the euro also stocks and cryptocurrencies. A lot of monthly indicators in the US stock market equities were showing bullish momentum during the start of August and September but there is a slow delay due to the rate hikes.
Citibank recently stated, "The dollar is the only place to hide in 2022", suggesting there is an ongoing concern for equities and cryptocurrencies due to rising yields. The US dollar seems to be the continued major safe haven asset investment by banks and major hedge funds. Powell looks to continue to raise rates untill the end of 2022, untill then the dollar can fundamentally continue to rise, after this the dollar could decline next year while the stock market and cryptocurrencies can see a potential inflection point.
From a technical perspective the EURUSD 4H chart RSI holds near 43 around neutral. The default MACD line has had trouble rising about the signal line. The histogram was rising but has failed to break above the zero axis. The market will be watching the key CPI report news which will be released soon.
The Great British Pound Sterling touches 1.14, the first time since 1985. $EUR/USD
The EURUSD pair has recently touched the 4H 20SMA.
Ilyas Khan Top1 Markets.
Nasdaq 100 index analysis: US real yields dominateThe Nasdaq 100 index ( US 100 ) has moved in the opposite direction of US real yields ( DFII10 ), which are the difference between nominal Treasury yields and market-based inflation expectations (also known as Breakeven yields). Real yields serve as a measure of the Fed's rate tightening aggressiveness.
The 30-day correlation between Nasdaq 100 and US real yields is currently at -0.83, indicating a strong and inverse negative relationship.
US real yields have risen dramatically since the start of the Fed hiking cycle in mid-March, from -0.7% to around 1% as of this writing, reflecting increased market expectations of a more stringent monetary policy.
This means that the nominal yield on a 10-year Treasury (3.45%) is currently about 1% higher than the market measure of inflation expectations for the next 10 years (2.45%).
Positive real returns on a safe asset like US Treasuries undoubtedly act as a deterrent to investing in riskier assets like stocks.
Technology stocks are also way more sensitive to changes in Federal Reserve interest rates than stocks in other industries. Higher interest rates reduce the long-term expected cash flows for tech companies. As a result, tech stocks fall more than the overall stock market. The Nasdaq 100 has underperformed the broader S&P 500 ( US 500 ), which is down 17.7% year to date versus -26.5% for the tech-heavy index.
After the US inflation rate continued to beat market expectations this week, markets have already fully priced in a 75 basis point hike at the FOMC meeting next week.
The chances of another 75 basis point hike in November are also increasing, which would bring US interest rates to 4% ahead of the December meeting. Stronger rate hikes could put additional pressure on the tech-heavy Nasdaq index .
Nasdaq manages small bounce but more losses likelyAlong with European markets, Nasdaq futures have managed a small bounce during early European trade, although at the time of writing they were still holding near Tuesday's lows along with tech stocks in extended hours trading, after the index's biggest plunge since the pandemic.
After such a big decline, dip buyers will likely be very nimble today. This means any bounces that we might see today may not hold for very long. With the market repricing interest rate hikes from the Fed, there will likely be more pain for investors than gains. Look out below.
After the Nasdaq's big bearish engulfing candle, I would expect to see some further downside follow through. Many longs are still trapped and their stops are in danger of getting triggered. At this stage, I wouldn't rule out a return to the summer lows, if we get past and hold below 11918 - the most recent low.
The bulls have a lot of wood to chop. While a short-term bounce from severely oversold levels makes sense, I would now wait to see a clear reversal pattern before looking for bullish setups. It is clear that the biggest moves have been to the downside all year. This is because we are in a bear trend. As always, it is better to trade in the direction of the trend.
By Fawad Razaqzada on behalf of FOREX.com
NASDAQ VS NI225These similarities between 2 charts are just my observations:
1- The past 3 years of NASDAQ100 vs 1987-1990 for NI225:
2- The past 14 years of NASDAQ100 vs 1975-1990 for NI225:
3- The past 50 years of NASDAQ100 vs 1950-1990 for NI225:
This observation is raising the probability that we may have a long way to go to declare the market bottom..!
Best,
Sell the early optimism in NASDAQ.NASDAQ - Intraday - We look to Sell at 12837 (stop at 13028)
Daily signals for sentiment are at overbought extremes.
A lower correction is expected.
A move higher faces tough resistance and we remain cautious on upside potential.
Preferred trade is to sell into rallies.
Our profit targets will be 12406 and 12300
Resistance: 12840 / 13600 / 16500
Support: 12400 / 11500 / 9000
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NASDAQ Broke above the 1D MA50, targeting the 1D MA200 next!The Nasdaq Index (NDX) broke today (futures) above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and that was our condition that we set as requirement on our previous analysis in order to avoid a new sell-off:
With the 1D RSI on such a strong rise similar to those of June 16 and January 25, if the 1D candle closes above the 1D MA50 today, we expect at least a short-term rally targeting the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), which has been always hit since the start of the year on similar rebound sequences (Feb 01, March 29).
On the longer-term, the index needs a break above the 1W MA100 (grey trend-line) in order to enter into long-term Bullish Territory, as it was that line that rejected the August 16 High. On the other hand, we are willing to take a sell again only below the 11930 Support, in which case we will target the 1W MA200 (red trend-line), which is the ultimate long-term Support.
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Daily analysis & day trading setups NASDAQ NQ_F NDX 08 Sep 22Happy Thursday,
See some weird stuff on the chart at the end of this idea
An interesting finding/question today - will NASDAQ remain between 11490 & 12940 till November elections?
In case of extreme moves beyond buying & selling levels
↗️ Upside key levels: 12 374, 476, 670, 801, 948, 13 014
↘️ Downside key levels: 12 213, 136, 052, 11 927, 843, 760, 697, 606
Macro EU ECB Monetary Policy Decision, Lagarde Speech, US Jobless Claims, Fed Powell Speech, CAD BoC Rogers Speech
Buy
Break: 12 267, 369, 467
Reversal: 12 204, 128, 11 988, 888
Sell
Break: 12 216, 144, 013
Reversal: 12 302, 383, 488, 460, 650
I regularly publish my daily analysis & trading plan for day trading setups. The links are here:
NASDAQ
DAX
SPX
Green Goblin levels are here >>>
Fibonacci Confluence levels are here >>>
This chart shows a specific range I have selected and you can see how price behaves at each fib level. Crazy stuff. You don't need a plan to trade this.
NASDAQ Thinly supported. Needs a 1D MA50 break to avoid sell-offThe Nasdaq (NDX) index had a strong rejection these past 4 weeks exactly on the level we projected on our idea on August 04:
Right now it is trading below both the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and the 1D MA100 (green trend-line), which were its short-term Support levels and have now turned into Resistances as each have rejected upwards break-out attempts at least once.
Being on the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level and based on the RSI (1W time-frame), which just hit its MA line (yellow), NDX appears to be in a similar level its was during April 11 - 20. This consolidation led lower when its Support broke and dropped first to the previous Low (0.0 Fib) and then to Lower Lows on the -0.382 and -0.5 Fibs respectively. As a result, if the current Support breaks, we expect the 1W MA200 (red trend-line) to be tested, which is slightly above the 11040 Lot of June 16 and depending on the market conditions at the time (which we will surely update on), the 1W MA300 (yellow trend-line), which is slightly above the -0.382 Fib.
On the bullish case, if the price breaks above the 1D MA50, consider it a buy break-out signal and target the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line).
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Daily analysis & day trading setups NASDAQ NQ_F NDX 06 Sep 22Happy Tuesday, Happy PMI Day,
Line in the sand is 12 100. Loss of 135 > 100 > 43 > 07 will open up 11 850
On the upside, 233 > 296 > 373 > 430 will open up 800 although upside resistance is now all piled up with WMA20 < DMA 100 < 10 < 50 < WMA10
Macro US S&P PMI, ISM Employment Index, New Orders Index, Services PMI, Services Prices Paid
Buy
Break: 12 215, 296, 400
Reversal: 12 126, 042, 11 990, 870, 748
Sell
Break: 12 135, 061, 007
Reversal: 12 234, 325, 424, 522
I regularly publish my daily analysis & trading plan for day trading setups. The links are here:
NASDAQ
DAX
SPX
Green Goblin levels are here >>>
Fibonacci Confluence levels are here >>>
#NASDAQ100 #NDX Elliott 5th Corrective wave is on the play4 corrective waves succesfully done and now proceed to 5th wave. Probable targets are given on the chart. This was the most important part, the technical analysis. Neither global conditions (EU Energy crysis, war threats, inflation and covid rise), neither astrologic conditions (Jupiter retro will not leave 23 - 28th Oct) doesn' t allow a real bounce. And #dollar index $DXY is growing and EUR is weakening. It' s time be most careful. After the 5th wave dip, an ABC bounce is expected. Not financial advice. DYOR.
Nasdaq to continue bearishAugust closed with a very strong bearish candle with price failing to break 12991 area a very strong area of resistance. The price is now continuing to move down to previous lows of 11391, where if broken will create a new lower low. Keep a eye out for my analysis on the lower timeframes.
US100Hi Everyone,
Just to share a near term forecast for September month. To summarise:
-Short-term bottom expected around 11.6-11.8k range to complete Wave I of C, with the completion of wave v.
-Expect a correction to at least 12.4k to complete Wave II of C.
-New lows expected with Wave III and V of C, thereafter.
This analysis is invalidated if prices exceed wave i (12.8k).
Good luck!
NAS100 USD NQ1! NASDAQ 2022 SEP 05 Week
NAS100 USD NQ1! NASDAQ 2022 SEP 05 Week
Last week Scenario 2 short at rejection of 12735 worked well.
Market is temporarily supported at 12017. 3 TF analysis showed
minor demand,
Possible scenarios:
1) Temporary long opportunity if 12018 is supported
2) Short on retracement / rejection at channel's supply line /
rejection of 12442, 12018
Weekly = High vol down bar close of low = supply, with minor demand
Daily = High vol down bar close off low = minor demand
H4: Ultra high vol down bar close at low, next ave vol up bar = minor
demand
Price reaction levels:
Short on Test and Reject | Long on Test and Accept
13587 13200 12735 12442
12018 11620 11348
Remember to Like and Follow if you find this useful.
Have a profitable trading week ahead.
Daily analysis & day trading setups - NASDAQ NAS100USD 20220831Happy month end, Happy Midweek, Happy Wednesday,
So finally we are ending a volatile month.
NASDAQ is making bear flag after bear flag and breaking down since 13 530. Today, we are breaking down from another bear flag. However, the drops are becoming smaller.
The line in the sand for the day is 13 438.
If we break 12220, it will open up for 11925. Break out of 12475 with further move above 12670 will signal change in direction.
REMEMBER it's a mid week month end.
Macro EU DE Unemployment, HICP, US Employment Change, Chicago PMI
Buy
Break: 12 385, 435, 460
Reversal: 12 345, 300, 256, 230, 205, 157, 118
Sell
Break: 12 350, 325, 300, 256, 230, 141
Reversal: 12 382, 406, 447, 500, 560
I regularly publish my daily analysis & trading plan for day trading setups. The links are here:
NASDAQ
DAX
SPX
Green Goblin levels are here >>>
Fibonacci Confluence levels are here >>>
update nasdaq After a big correction in the form of a neutral triangle as wave a of a flat , we entered a neutral reverse triangle, which is the initial branch of wave b of the mentioned flat. After several fluctuations in the form of a (probably) triangle, we will enter wave c with targets above 14,000, which can be a good profit for traders.