NASDAQ Bullish reversal confirmed as per previous 2022 reboundsJust a few days following our last analysis, the Nasdaq Index (NDX) broke above its 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) for the first time since August 26:
As mentioned then, the factor that made the difference in our decision to call for a buy was the RSI Bullish Divergence on the 1D time-frame which has been trading on Higher Highs/ Higher Lows (Channel Up) since October 03, while the actual price action has been on Lower Highs and Lower Lows (Channel Down).
The current rebound is consistent with the previous medium-term rebounds throughout the 2022 Bear Cycle, that started after the bottoms of February 24 and June 16. We can see the very same Channel Up on the 1D RSI during those bottoms. Both of those medium-term rebounds, broke above the 1D MA50 (red trend-line) and targeted the 1D MA200 (green trend-line), which has marginally hit on the March 29/30 High and approached on the August 16 High. Interestingly enough, the RSI Channel Up patterns broke to the upside around the time the price broke above the 4H MA200.
With the 4H MA200 broken, our short-term target is now the 1D MA50 and the medium-term 300 points below the 1D MA200. The projection from where we stand today, puts the 1D MA200 just above 12500 by mid November.
For comparison purposes in order to get a better understanding of Nasdaq's proportionate position compared to the previous rebounds, we've plotted all rebound sequences on top of another (Black line = Feb 24 - March 30, Grey line = June 21 - August 16 and Yellow line = October 02 - today). It is obvious how closely correlated all three sequences are.
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NASDAQ 100 CFD
My prediction for the $NDXI think the market is due for a 10-12% rebound in the next 20 to 25 days.
Then, the $NDX will face resistance between 12,200 and 12,500 and will pullback for an 8% to 10% over 8 to 10 days
Then, there will be an important point in the market:
1) Do we go back UP and reverse this bear market OR
2) Crash down another 20%
We will see! Cheers,
NASDAQ / US100 AnalysisIn a bearish trend Nasdaq has defined it's new lower low & now on the move to form a new Lower high. I'll take a short entry if the price rejects from defined S&R areas.
NASDAQ This drop is limited. Medium-term targets around 12500.The Nasdaq Index (NDX) has been pulling-back since Tuesday's (Oct 18) Lower High and is once again on its 4H MA50 (blue trend-line). What can be the difference maker here is the RSI on the 1D time-frame which has been trading on Higher Highs/ Higher Lows (Channel Up) since October 03, while the actual price action has been on Lower Highs and Lower Lows (Channel Down). This is a technical Bullish Divergence, often seen on market bottoms (temporary or not).
Since the long-term trend throughout 2022 has been bearish (Bear Cycle), we have to consider this as a temporary bottom at least for now. Such bottoms have been on February 24 and June 16 so far. Interestingly enough, we can see the very same Channel Up on the 1D RSI during those bottoms. Also we can see that their duration with today's is fairly symmetrical. Those bottoms started medium-term rebounds, which broke above the 1D MA50 (red trend-line) and targeted the 1D MA200 (green trend-line), which has marginally hit on the March 29/30 High and approached on the August 16 High.
They trigger to start a bullish break-out has been the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) and right now Nasdaq is trading below it. If it breaks, the short-term target should be the 1D MA50 and the medium-term the 1D MA200. The projection from where we stand today, puts the 1D MA200 just above 12500 by mid November.
For comparison purposes in order to get a better understanding of Nasdaq's proportionate position compared to the previous rebounds, I've plotted both sequences on today's price action (black and grey lines).
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NASDAQ AnalysisThe bullish trend is broken now, so I'll try to short after Lower high formation which is expected to form at the given price range.
Nasdaq strong bear trendhello, my name is ir00 and this my first idea on trading view my analysis are mainly based on fundamentals.
This idea is my point of view for upcoming short to med term Wave
Hope you enjoy it, have a nice weekend.
S&P500 For the first time since the COVID sell off the SP:SPX closed the WEEK below the 200 SMA at 3583 points, for the previous three weeks the index was trying to test the support of the 200 SMA but after the heavy selling pressure in the other indexes TVC:DJI NASDAQ:IXIC and NASDAQ:NDX .
SP:SPX has broken the support to the downside and most of the stocks are closing at the lowest prices after breaking most of the medium and long-term supports. on the other hand, the indicators are confirming the same view as the RSI is below its moving average at 36 level, also the stochastic is still giving sell and weakness signals.
A small rebound is expected as a correction in the very short term closing the long positions, and opening short positions are recommended.
NASDAQ One last leg down or break above the 1D MA50?Nasdaq (NDX) is extending the Channel Down that started on the August 16 2022 High, making a Lower Low yesterday. With the assistance of the 1D RSI, we have spotted a recurring pattern that has already played out two times during this Bear Cycle since the start of the year and is currently forming the third one.
As you see, every such Lower Low sequence, made a bottom when the 1D RSI made a Low at the same level as the previous one. It is shown that the RSI has a somewhat triple bottom before the price rebounds. Right now the RSI is approaching the 30.000 level where the September 30 Low was made. The bottom of the previous Lower Low sequence was made on June 16 on the -0.5 Fibonacci extension from the March 15 Low. If each Low is a Fib level higher then the current one could be either on the -0.382, which is just below the 1W MA300 (yellow trend-line) or the -0.236 (just above the 10000 mark). Either way, the buy signal is given when the RSI hits 30.000.
It is not unlikely though to see a rebound without dipping that low as the sequence is almost completed and we saw a bullish reaction yesterday to the CPI. So if the index breaks above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) next, we can see a bullish extension towards the 1W MA100 (grey trend-line), which is the current Resistance as it has provided the last two rejection on August 16 and May 05.
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QQQ - Is a double bottom done rising? Recently, we warned that the market was likely to bounce after making new lows. Subsequently, that occurred, and the Nasdaq continuous futures rose approximately 7% from their lows. So now, we are again turning bearish on the index in the short term.
Our views, like previously, are based on a combination of fundamental and technical factors. We expect these factors to worsen as the FED continues tightening monetary conditions. Therefore, we have no reason to change our macroeconomic views and stick to the price target of 11 000 USD for NQ1!. Since our last price targets for QQQ were reached recently, we would like to set a new price target of 270 USD.
Illustration 1.01
Illustration 1.01 shows the price of QQQ retracing toward the 20-day SMA, which often coincides with the correction of a primary trend.
Technical analysis - daily time frame
RSI is neutral. MACD is also neutral. Stochastic is bullish. DM+ and DM- are bearish. Overall, the daily time frame is less bearish than a week ago.
Illustration 1.02
Illustration 1.02 displays the daily chart of QQQ and simple support/resistance levels.
Technical analysis - weekly time frame
RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+, and DM- are all bearish. Overall, the weekly time frame is bearish.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
I have covered all shorts the down side target was originally 262 /258/259 look for a very sharp rally back up for 6.8 to 9 days back to 286/296 I am buying calls now options ONLY
S&P500 2week 20ema/50ema Bear Crossover - Historic2degreez here. I am now eyeing the S&P500 2week 20ema/50ema Bear Crossover
It has historic significance as does the prior Weekly 20ema/100ema Bear Crossover that I have published previously.
This video shows a quick look back at the prior historic 2week 20ema/50ema bear crossovers and the subsequent moves down.
I also take a quick look at the NQ100 and how it is leading the way on these bear crossovers.
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This content is for informational, educational and entertainment purposes only. This is not in any way, shape or form financial or trading advice.
Good luck, happy trading and stay chill,
2degreez
NASDAQNDX: at a crucial region of weekly support. breaking this area will push the price towards daily support, and the H&S target level as well.
bearish divergence was also found.
NASDAQ 100 INDEX TODAY There are a few ways you can trade the NASDAQ 100 with us. You can open a CFD trading account and trade on the NASDAQ 100 via our exclusive US Tech 100. Alternatively, you can use CFDs to trade on NASDAQ 100-listed stocks or a NASDAQ ETF. You can also trade the NASDAQ via options or futures.
Bearish NASDAQ (US100) to Continue in Longer TermBased on the upcoming fundamental news such as Non-farm Payroll (NFP) today and CPI news next week, I would think NQ would be bearish with higher probability to follow yellow path.
I am hoping i was wrong, but given the recent geo-political news such as OPEC+ is reducing the oil output, it will drive price of goods to continue to go up, giving more pressure for higher inflation, and fed will try to slow inflation down by increasing interest rates more if there were no strategic initiative by US government to relieve the concerning situation.
NASDAQ Repeating the April-May fractal and how it can be avoidedNasdaq has been trading within a Channel Down pattern since the short-term High of August 16 that was rejected on the 1W MA100 (gray trend-line). The minor rise at the start of the week has turned sideways as it approached the top (Lower Highs trend-line) of the Channel and the market prepares for the Nonfarm Payrolls today.
Based also on the 1D RSI structure, this pattern resembles so far the April - May Channel Down. As long as the price remained below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), it made a Lower Low on June 16 before gradually starting to recover and eventually break above the 1D MA50 and towards the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line).
As a result, we may be looking for a Lower Low near the 1W MA300 (yellow trend-line), now that the 1W MA200 (red trend-line) broke. A closing above the 1D MA50 should be taken as a bullish break-out signal on the short-term targeting the 1D MA200 and 1W MA100. Only a weekly closing above the 1W MA100 can be considered as an attempt to shift the long-term trend from bearish to bullish.
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Nasdaq reclaiming the June lows — squeeze on watchWe spoke a lot about this chart in last week's SMW video and our preferred scenario for today would have been a market puke and a VIX spike, but as we often say, the market doesn't care what we want.
We talked about the June lows as a key line in the sand going forward and the market is trying to make us believe that it wants to be above it. The action today was constructive, but now we need follow through and we need to punch through this cluster of highs/lows around 275 to really kick off the squeeze.
This remains a very tricky environment that can change on a dime, but as it stands right now, shorts need to be careful of an impending squeeze so long as we are over the June lows.
$VIX @ pattern top, bottom for 2022? MOAC 2023?Other banks will probably follow the #BankofEngland
#Fed Reserve is watching & it fits SHORT TERM bull narrative
Updated $VIX - Don't see a major crash in 2022
#stocks #crypto #VIX $SPX $SPY $NDX #NDX $DJI #DowJones #NASDAQ100 $BTC $ETH
NASDAQ Testing the 1W MA200. Is it on the brink of collapse?------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
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This is the Nasdaq index (NDX) on the 1W time-frame, where it hit the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line), for the first time since July 2010! Coupled with the 1W MACD just forming a Bearish Cross in the previous week, inevitably similarities emerge with the 2008 Housing Crisis.
And rightly so as until now, the 2022 correction has been very similar to October 2007 - July 2008. As you see after the index started falling initially, the price rebound at (or very close to in the case of 2022) the 1W MA200. The subsequent rebound, hit (or in the case of 2022 nearly hit) the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), which in turn rejected the uptrend and turned the trend downwards again towards the 1W MA200.
It would appear that we are at this important level now where in July 2008 the 1W MA200 provided one last rebound before one final rejection on the 1W MA50 that on September 2008 broke below the 1W MA200 finally and caused a -42% collapse. Notice that the 1W Death Cross (MA50 crossing below the MA200), though a bearish pattern, it was formed right at the bottom of the Cear Cycle. Both then and now the 1W RSI was trading under Lower Highs, which when broke, signalled the start of the recovery and the new Bull Cycle. Also the 1W MACD took a Bearish - Bullish - Bearish Cross sequence before the -42% collapse.
What this chart shows is that the emphasis should be on the current test of the 1W MA200. A trend-line tested three times since February 2010 and provided extremely strong Bull Phases, with COVID crash (March 2020) being the most recent. A break below it, could initiate a 2008 type collapse, with a -40% from current levels placing the target around the COVID March 2020 Low (6650). On the other hand, it shows that the 1W MA50 is the current Resistance and if broken first (after it failed this August), it could invalidate the extension of the Bear Market and save the day for stocks.
What do you think will happen next?
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Nasdaq 100 - Progressing into the 2nd stage of the bear marketOur last post on the Nasdaq index outlined our bearish stance on the general stock market. Today will be no different, and we will reiterate our grim opinions and provide more thoughts on the latest developments in the market.
Since our last article, the Nasdaq index continued to drift lower; meanwhile, QQQ reached our price target of 280 USD and halted its decline slightly above the 270 USD price tag. Furthermore, since November 2021, the Nasdaq index has lost more than 33%, plunging deep into the bear market territory.
Unfortunately, we do not see any reversal of the primary trend on the horizon. Contrarily, we think the FED will follow its path of demand destruction, negatively affecting the stock market and the real economy. Indeed, we would argue that the bear market is already transitioning from the 1st stage into the 2nd stage.
The 2nd stage of the bear market is characterized by the decline of corporate profits and economic projections, which is currently under progress. Therefore, we voice a strong word of caution to market participants over the medium and long term. We believe the market will continue to weaken and constitute new lows over time.
Regarding the short-term, major stock market indices are currently hovering near their 2022 lows. Therefore, we are looking for signs of a short-lived bounce. We reason that soon, we will start seeing market participants forecasting double bottom formations, which will once again lure weak hands into the market - ones that will later reinforce the selling pressure.
Despite that, we commit to our bearish stance over the medium and long term. Accordingly, we maintain 11 000 USD price target for NQ1!; as for the QQQ, we currently choose not to set any price target.
Illustration 1.01
Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of NQ1!. Yellow arrows indicate recent technical developments. Additionally, two simple moving averages reflect the presence of a downtrend.
Technical analysis - daily time frame
RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+, and DM- are all bearish. Overall, the daily time frame is bearish.
Illustration 1.02
The image above displays support and resistance levels for NQ1!.
Technical analysis - weekly time frame
RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+, and DM- are all bearish. Overall, the weekly time frame is bearish.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
QQQ - Brief updateRecently, QQQ reached our price target of 290 USD. Therefore, we would like to update our thoughts on the asset. We continue to be bearish due to the persistence of fundamental and technical factors. Indeed, we think the U.S. stock market will continue lower. Accordingly, we maintain the price target for QQQ at 280 USD. Our price target for the Nasdaq 100 index is 11 000 USD.
Illustration 1.01
The bearish crossover occurred as we predicted, confirming our bearish thesis.
Technical analysis - daily time frame
RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+, and DM- are all bearish. Overall, the daily time frame is bearish.
Technical analysis - weekly time frame
RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+, and DM- are all bearish. Overall, the weekly time frame is bearish.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
NAS100 USD NQ1! NASDAQ 2022 SEP 26 Week
NAS100 USD NQ1! NASDAQ 2022 SEP 26 Week
Hope you liked the short for NQ last week.
Temporary demand has returned, with price now at
demand line of channel.
We may see the formation of rotation area 11068 - 13587.
Possible scenarios:
1) Long if channel support / 11068 is supported
2) Short if price rejected at dotted trend line / channel's
supply line.
Weekly = Higher vol + narrower spread down bar,
close off low = demand coming in
Daily = Ave vol down bar close off low = minor demand
H4: Very high vol down bar followed by DoS up bar =
demand coming in
Price reaction levels:
Short on Test and Reject | Long on Test and Accept
13587 13200 12735
12140 11647 11393
11068 10359 - 10532
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Have a profitable trading week ahead.
Preparing to catch the falling market knife - short-term tradersIn this video we recap the US stock market price action from last week and game plan for the week ahead.
We break down the 3 possible scenarios the market may take next week and how to plan/structure trades around them.
This video was specifically recorded for short-term tactical traders looking to catch a multi-day bounce, and does not acknowledge/discuss the fact that we are in a longer-term bearish market environment.
Nasdaq 100 target 8000 by march 2023Seems Equal legs from the top of ((3)) will reach 8000 in March 2023 to complete ((4)) and then finalize the ((5))
