NASDAQ preparing a mid-March rebound with eyes on the 1W MA200Our last analysis on Nasdaq (NDX) 10 days ago, came with a warning that as long as the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) and the Lower Highs trend-line of the long-term Channel Down held, the trend was bearish towards the 11500 Support:
As you see the 11500 target was eventually hit, and with the Fed making an interest rate raise yesterday of 0.75% (the biggest hike since 1994), the index eyes the 1W MA200 (red trend-line) for the first time since August 2010, as more and more market participants call for a recession.
However, as long as the 1W MA200 holds, we have to go with the pattern in hand, i.e. the Channel Down which calls for a short-term rebound above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and on the 1D MA100 to form a new Lower High. Target range: 13000 - 13400.
A 1W candle closing below the 1W MA200 should be enough to kick-start a sharp fall to the 1W MA300 (yellow line, scroll the chart downwards to see).
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NASDAQ 100 CFD
Nasdaq - bearish for the next few weeks/monthsBearish until price taps back into the 2020 3rd quarterly earnings week. Where we have an order block that gave us a nice long term buy back in 2020, I believe we will still see some nice opportunities to go long (short term) around the 10900 and 10800 prices.
Nasdaq-100 Riding on/below lower Bollinger Band Daily & WeeklyAfter 4 days of intense selling, we're back to new cycle drawdown lows in the Nasdaq-100. Meanwhile, the selling has pushed us below the lower Bollinger Bands on multiple time-frames (weekly chart left and daily chart right). It's nasty out there.
NAS100 USD NQ1! NASDAQ 2022 Jun 13 Week
NAS100 USD NQ1! NASDAQ 2022 Jun 13 Week
Last week short preference worked well. Scenario1 UT target 12180 reached.
Possible Scenarios:
1) Short on retracement
2) Rotation: Trade at boundary (wait for signs of S/R)
3) Test and Reject of T1 area for short
4) Downtrend continuation after rotation: Short on Test and Reject
Weekly = Average vol down bar closing at low = weakness
Daily = Low vol wide spread down bar closing at low = minor strength
H4: Low vol down bar close off low - minor strength
Price reaction levels:
Short on Test and Reject | Long on Test and Accept
14729 14365 13587
13025 - 12883 12442 12256
11855 11518 11100-11068
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Have a profitable trading week ahead.
Tech selling today?NASDAQ
Intraday - We look to Sell at 12850 (stop at 13035)
Buying pressure from 12410 resulted in prices rejecting the dip. The current move higher is expected to continue. The bias is still for lower levels and we look for any gains to be limited. We therefore, prefer to fade into the rally with a tight stop in anticipation of a move back lower.
Our profit targets will be 12325 and 11490
Resistance: 12935 / 13380 / 13830
Support: 12380 / 11490 / 10675
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Nasdaq 100 - An indecisive moment for the short-termThe last Friday, the Nasdaq 100 index failed to move below the short-term support at 12 442.50 USD. That highly raises the odds of a bear market rally continuing further. A breakout above the short-term resistance will suggest the index will test the next resistance level at 13 555.25 USD. Despite that, we do not foresee any changes to bearish fundamental factors. Therefore, we have no reason to change our medium and long-term bearish outlook on NQ1!. However, we are indecisive about where the market is headed next in the short term. Therefore, we are very cautious, and we will monitor the price action (and volume) throughout the day.
Technical analysis - daily time frame
RSI is neutral. MACD is bullish but in bearish territory. Stochastic oscillates in the bullish area. DM+ and DM- are bullish; however, ADX shows the trend is turning neutral. Overall, the daily time frame is neutral.
Illustration 1.01
The picture shows the failure of the NQ1! to make a new low below the short-term support.
Technical analysis - weekly time frame
RSI points to the upside; however, its bearish structure remains intact. Stochastic oscillates in the bearish area. MACD is flattening. DM+ and DM- are bearish. Overall, the weekly time frame is bearish.
Illustration 1.02
The choppy price action forms the neutral zone between short-term support and short-term resistance.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
NASDAQ Sideways but still off the top of the Channel DownNasdaq (NDX) has been trading sideways since May 30. The 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) is right above with the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) being roughly around the Lower Highs (top) trend-line of the Channel Down.
Based on our previous analysis 2 weeks ago, the index was on a W pattern aiming at the Resistance as part of the Lower Highs formation:
So far so good if you took that buy, you may start taking profit at will. The reason is that only a break above the 1D MA100 can justify further buying and that's only to the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), which last time rejected the uptrend from March 29 to April 05. Until the Lower Highs break, the trend is bearish towards the 11500 Support. A confirmed sell if you are looking for a lower risk factor, would be when the MACD makes a Bearish Cross.
As for a long-term bullish reversal only a weekly candle closing above the 15300 March 29 High can sustain it.
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NAS100 USD NQ1! NASDAQ 2022 Jun 06 Week
NAS100 USD NQ1! NASDAQ 2022 Jun 06 Week
Last week 12594 fought hard to hold up the market. UT has been confirmed now
as market closed below 12594. Preference will be to short on retracement with
3 TFs showing weakness on the background.
Possible Scenarios:
1) UT setup confirmed: Targets 12180 // 11690
2) Breakout, then we will need to adjust strategy to long on retracement
Weekly = Average vol UT bar close below H/C of previous bar = weakness
bar = strength + reversal
Daily = Average vol down bar close toward low = weakness
H4:Very High vol narrow spread up bar followed by lower vol up bar = weakness
Price reaction levels:
Short on Test and Reject | Long on Test and Accept
14729 14365 13587
13025 - 12883 12454 - 12594
12185 11518 11100-11068
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Have a profitable trading week ahead.
Nasdaq 100 - Why the downtrend will continue to unravelOver the past few weeks, we have been raising caution about the “bear market rally” in the stock market and cryptocurrencies. Then, yesterday, we warned about the rally's waning volume. We speculated that it was foreshadowing a possible bull trap; and we expressed our expectations of invalidation of the bullish breakouts (ones that pierced above the high from 31st May 2022 and 1st June 2022). Since then, these breakouts became invalidated, and the Nasdaq 100 index declined 2%. At the moment, we monitor the situation and look for an increase in volume, suggesting further growth in selling pressure. Over the course of the year, we expect the Nasdaq 100 to continue its gradual decline toward a new low.
Negative fundamental factors
We still foresee foes to the rising price of NQ1! among higher interest rates in the U.S. and economic tightening. Accordingly, we expect these developments to weigh on the index throughout 2022. Another development we pay close attention to is the measure of bounces in particular stocks, which are characteristic of the downtrend. Furthermore, we also continue to see institutional players offload their assets while retail investors are on the hunt for stocks at a discount; inflows are also very small compared to their past levels. We expect lay traders to be shaken out of the market once substantial declines start taking place; thus, they will reinforce the selling pressure and drag prices lower. Overall, fundamental factors are very bearish for the U.S. stock market, with the FED set to pursue demand destruction.
Technical analysis - daily time frame
RSI and Stochastic turned bearish. MACD points to the upside, but it remains below the 0 points. DM+ and DM- performed bullish crossover; we will look for its invalidation in the short term. Overall, the daily time frame is bearish for NQ1!.
Illustration 1.01
The picture above shows recent bullish breakouts and invalidations of them. Retracement of breakouts will be bullish for NQ1!.
Technical analysis - weekly time frame
RSI, MACD, and Stochastic remain bearish. The same applies to DM+ and DM-. Overall, the weekly time frame is bearish.
Illustration 1.02
Illustration 1.02 shows simple support/resistance levels. Favorably, we would like to see further confirmation of our thesis by the plunge of NQ1! below the short-term support.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
NDX JPMorgan: economic hurricane coming our way!Jamie Dimon, the JPMorgan Chase CEO:
"Right now it's kind of sunny, things are doing fine. Everyone thinks the Fed can handle this." "That hurricane is right out there down the road coming our way." "We just don't know if it's a minor one or Superstorm Sandy. You better brace yourself."
Jamie Dimon is predicting an economic "hurricane" caused by rising inflation , interest rate hikes and the war in Ukraine.
I have 2 scenarios: the most optimistic is that NDX formed and inverse head and shoulders chart pattern and it will close the year at the same level that it started it, around $16650.
And the worst case scenario is if Jamie Diamon is right and we are going lower after this bounce to the resistance.
In this case, the first strong support is $9750.
I see that it go lower only if oil stays higher than $140 - 150 for this year, then this is the strongest sign of a recession or if China invades Taiwan.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
Nasdaq 100 - Bear market rally shows loss of momentumThe Nasdaq 100 futures erased some of their early gains. Currently, NQ1! trades around 12 600 USD. We continue to be bearish on the index as we think that the current rally is indeed a “bear market rally”. As a result, we expect the bearish trend of a higher degree to resume and the market to continue toward new lows. Today we will pay attention to the close price.
Technical analysis - daily time frame
RSI, MACD, and Stochastic flatten. DM+ and DM- failed to produce bullish crossover. Overall, the daily time frame is bearish.
Illustration 1.01
We will watch today's close price. If it is above yesterday's close price, it will be a bullish sign; however, if the NQ1! closes below yesterday's close price, then that will hint at the possible deterioration of the rally's momentum
Technical analysis - weekly time frame
RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+, and DM- are all bearish. Overall, the weekly time frame is bearish.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
Nas100 is facing strong resistanceIn my previous Nas100 analysis I said that the index can rise and test important 13k zone resistance.
On Monday Nas100 reached that zone and yesterday it started to drop.
The trend for this index is still strongly bearish and I expect a new leg down as long as 13k is intact.
Sell rallies towards that zone can be a good strategy and bears can target the previous low for their short trades
Nasdaq 100 - The case for a "bear market rally"In our previous post, we warned about the bear market rally. Since then, the Nasdaq 100 index has reversed to the upside and continues to climb. Most titles within the U.S. stock market have rallied hard so far; however, in our opinion, these massive moves are not characteristic of a healthy market. Instead, they are indicative of the bear market. At the same time, we do not expect bearish fundamental factors like the prospect of higher interest rates in the U.S. and economic tightening to change in the next quarter. Therefore, we predict further deterioration of the financial situation and lower prices for the stock market (from the current levels). We do not know how high will the bear market rally go; however, we have very little faith that the bottom is in for the stock market.
Illustration 1.01
In our previous idea, we noted that the breakout above the sloping resistance indicated by the yellow line would be bullish; indeed, we said that it could potentially mark the beginning of the bear market rally. Since then, the Nasdaq 100 index has gained approximately 5%.
Technical analysis - daily time frame
RSI, Stochastic, and MACD are bullish. DM+ and DM- are due to perform bullish crossover, which could bolster a rally further; however, failure will foreshadow the return of selling pressure. Overall, the daily time frame is bullish.
Illustration 1.02
On the weekly chart, NQ1! retraces towards its 20-day SMA (acts as a correction of the downtrend - similarly like on the daily time frame).
Technical analysis - weekly time frame
RSI, MACD, and Stochastic are turning neutral. DM+ and DM- are bearish. Overall, the weekly time frame stays bearish.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
NAS100 breaks keys and opportunitiesThe 6th session NASDAQ100 had a strong bullish wave breaking through the important lvl 125xx key. We will look at some factors to be able to make a profit from it:
- Fundamental Analysis: The biggest buzz of the moment came after Friday's PCE data was released. The market is optimistic with the view that "inflation is showing signs of peaking" and if inflation continues to fall below current levels in the coming months, the Fed will feel more comfortable to slow down the pace of rate hikes. From there the view that the Fed won't raise rates above neutral begins to gain more support, which would be a downside effect on both long-term US Treasury yields and the dollar, and bullish effect on gold.
- Technical analysis: looking at the H1 frame chart, we can clearly see that the falling structure has just been broken and the uptrend lasted until the last minutes of the session. In my personal experience with such an excited market sentiment, the bullish wave can last until the price reaches the 131xx area. However, what we need to pay attention to, the price has just broken the key and has not formed a higher low - enough conditions to confirm the trend reversal. We can completely wait for the opportunity if the price finds the 12~122xx area to be able to set up a good entry for the upcoming long wave.
Wish you a good trading week.
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Any questions or request analysis of other trading pairs, please leave a comment
Did NASDAQ potentially hit bottom?!NDX just hit and bounced off a major support level.
Over the last 18 years, as shown in the chart, this support level has proven to be a historical pivot point for the Nasdaq index. As per the attached chart image, every time the index hit this support level (150 MA on weekly candles), it has bounced off the moving average, and reversed into either short term or long term bullish trend. You can watch our full video explaining this by clicking on the link below.
In addition the Stochastic indicator is telling us that the NDX is oversold and overstretched, and is due for a rebound rally at minimum, or potential change to a bullish momentum.
Nasdaq 100 - The market is undecided about where to go nextThe Nasdaq 100 index showed some relief yesterday after plunging on the FOMC minutes announcement. However, after the market close, the Nasdaq index gave up almost all of its gains in a flash crash. The price action has been choppy over the past week, and the market seems undecided about where to go next. We remain bearish and expect the downtrend to unravel further in the coming month. However, after more than six weeks of selling, the market strives to find some relief; therefore, we are on the lookout for a bear market rally. Although, we voice caution that this is nothing unexceptional in the bear market, and we may see the continuation of selling into this and the following week. Therefore, we will pay close attention to the sloping resistance and the downward sloping channel in which NQ1! appears. Our price target for NQ1! stays at 11 500 USD; a breakout above the sloping resistance in the Illustration 1.01 would force us to abandon our short-term price target.
Illustration 1.01
The picture above portrays alternative scenarios for the Nasdaq 100 index. A breakout above the sloping resistance will imply bullishness; however, we voice caution as it could potentionally end up as another bull trap. Moreover, anxiety among market participants remains highly elevated as retail investors continue to buy dips and institutional players sell their assets. As a result, we expect the volatility to stay persistent in the coming month.
Technical analysis - daily time frame
RSI, MACD, and Stochastic are neutral. DM+ and DM- stay bearish, and ADX remains elevated. Overall, the daily time frame is neutral.
Illustration 1.02
The picture shows a downward sloping channel indicated by yellow dashed parallels. Breakout below the channel is bearish and increases the index's odds of a flash crash. We will pay close attention to the price and whether it will manage to stay above the channel. If not, it will imply more selling pressure.
Technical analysis - weekly time frame
RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+, and DM- are all bearish. Overall, the weekly time frame remains bearish.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
NASDAQ on a W pattern.Nasdaq (NDX) has been trading within a Channel Down since its All Time High in late November. The 1D RSI has turned sideways since April 26 and that resembles the flat period of February 01 - March 14. That was a W formation that rebounded and reached the overhead Resistance upon its completion.
We may form a similar W pattern again with the Resistance this time being around 13580, which is where the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) currently is. A break below the recent Support though, would invalidate this pattern and most likely push Nasdaq to the 1W MA200 (red trend-line), which is the long-term Support and has been untouched since July 06 2010!
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NDX100 sellers are struggling to beat 11,780 for nowHello TradingView community, today’s video update is more to highlight an area as opposed to looking out for a potential set-up.
Tech stocks have been having a hard time of it lately, but we are seeing and watching an area between 11,780 and 11,550ish. The bottom is not exact, but after looking at the NDX100 you will see the point being made.
This area, for now, continues to reject sellers and continues to present as demand and possibly support for buyers. It’s no more than a level of interest for us at the moment. We could see price continue to hold there and perhaps push at a new move higher, or we could see sellers railroad the area.
The key for us will be if this level can continue to hold. If so, we will look for further price action to start thinking and looking for new ideas.
Good trading.
NDX 100 - Approaching Time & Price BUY ZoneAre we at a significant turning point of time and price?
This long term WEEKLY chart illustrates the significance of the area we are currently approaching.....we may have already arrived.
As you can see we are positioned at the median line of the LONG TERM channel. I think this will provide an area of support that could advance prices to the .62 or .78 fib retracement area outlined with the white box. This most likely will take months to unfold.
There should be excellent gains in many of the stocks that have been thoroughly trashed. In many of these stocks the correction actually started in February of 2021.